President Trump is staking his reelection on a “silent majority” of people who he believes will rally to him as the last line of defense against urban lawlessness and attacks on national symbols. But the silent majority may not translate into either a popular vote or an electoral majority, Republican strategists increasingly fear.

“Angry mobs are trying to tear down statues of our founders, deface our most sacred memorials, and unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities,” Trump said in his Fourth of July celebration remarks at Mount Rushmore. Zeroing in on both the cultural conflicts and traditional “law-and-order” themes, Trump declared, “The American people are strong and proud, and they will not allow our country and all of its values, history, and culture, to be taken from them.”