Most Republican voters would not be deterred from voting for former President Donald Trump in 2024 if he is convicted or even imprisoned, according to a new poll released as candidates gather for the first GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Trump has been charged in four cases, two federal and two local, investigating everything from his handling of classified documents to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
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The former president will not attend the debate, instead choosing to record an interview with ex-Fox News host Tucker Carlson. But his legal problems, which have become a financial drag on his campaign war chest, are expected to cast a pall over the event.
Trump will surrender to a jail in Georgia the following day after a prosecutor in Fulton County charged him with racketeering in its election interference probe.
The charges have only galvanized Trump’s base of support as Republican allies and rivals alike denounce what they see as the “weaponization” of the justice system against him.
Sixty-four percent of Republicans would be “very” or “somewhat” willing to cast their vote for Trump in the primary should he be convicted, Morning Consult found in a poll released Wednesday. That number falls slightly, to 60%, if he is imprisoned and is virtually unchanged for the general election.
Most GOP primary voters say they’d vote for Trump in the primary even if he’s convicted, sentenced or even imprisoned — according a new @MorningConsult survey.
Read more here from @eyokley ahead of tonight’s #GOPDebate: https://t.co/VJuagaPN5S pic.twitter.com/nMR5iJXq0m
— Cameron Easley (@cameron_easley) August 23, 2023
The survey, taken from 809 possible Republican primary voters from Aug. 18-20, is the latest sign of how difficult it will be for Trump’s 2024 rivals to derail his campaign. He holds a 40-plus-point lead over his next closest contender, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in national polling.
The series of court hearings, to be scheduled deep into the primary election cycle, will keep the attention on Trump even as other candidates try to convince voters the party should move on from him.
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The findings, however, are in tension with a Reuters/Ipsos poll from earlier this month that found only 35% of Republicans would vote for Trump if he is convicted of a felony. Just 28% would do so if he is in jail on Election Day.
Prosecutors are seeking trial dates that would fall within the next year — Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis proposed hers begin the day before Super Tuesday — but Trump’s lawyers are lobbying to delay those trials until after the election.
