Welcome to Byron York’s Daily Memo newsletter.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to receive the newsletter.
IS BIDEN”S SUPPORT SOFT? A new poll from ABC News and the Washington Post shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a 10-point lead over President Trump, 53 percent to 43 percent, among registered voters nationwide. That’s a large margin, significantly bigger than the 5.9 point lead Biden has in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls.
On the other hand, the survey has some interesting numbers about the relative strength of voter support. When respondents said they supported Trump, the pollsters followed up: Would you definitely vote for Trump, probably vote for him, or just possibly vote for him? An impressive 87 percent of his registered voter supporters said they would definitely vote for Trump, versus eight percent who said they would probably vote for him, and five percent who said they would possibly vote for him.
In other words, Trump’s support appears rock-solid. But Biden’s is not. When pollsters asked the same question of people who said they supported Biden, they found that just 74 percent of his registered voter supporters said they would definitely vote for him. Fifteen percent said they would probably vote for him, and 11 percent said they would possibly vote for him.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
There’s more. Ninety percent of the registered voters who support Trump said they were enthusiastic about supporting him. Seventy-six percent of Biden’s registered voter supporters said they were enthusiastic about him.
And this: People still approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. With everything that has happened as a result of coronavirus — sky-high unemployment, businesses struggling to come back, economic activity ravaged by lockdowns — a majority of those polled, 52 percent, said they approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, versus 44 percent who disapproved.
Don’t overthink it. There are still lots of numbers that look bad for Trump, starting with that 10-point Biden lead. But some of the indicators of enthusiasm among Biden supporters are similar to those for Hillary Clinton back in 2016.
And then there are the riots. There is no way to know how the current unrest across the nation will affect the race. In broad terms, Trump has advocated toughness against rioters, while Biden has advocated understanding. Which position looks best in retrospect depends on what happens. But in the past, a law & order position has benefited Trump. It could happen again, especially after some Democratic state and local officials seemed unwilling or unable to stand up to rioters.
