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IT’S ALL OVER BUT THE LAWSUITS. The Trump campaign continues to file lawsuits challenging election results in several key states. But so far, nine days after the election, it has not filed any challenge that appears likely to overturn the results in any state.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s lead in those states appears unsurmountable. In Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 53,244 votes. In Michigan, Biden leads by 148,645 votes. In Wisconsin, Biden’s lead is 20,546 votes. In Georgia, where there will be a recount, it is 14,057 votes. In Arizona, it is 11,635 votes.
Assuming Trump wins North Carolina — and it appears he will — he would have to overcome Biden’s leads in Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania to win re-election. He could do it with some other combination of states — Georgia, Arizona, and Michigan, or Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, or something like that — but the fact is, Trump would have to flip at least three states where Biden has a substantial lead with few votes left to count.
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There is no hope that will happen. “No lawsuit is active that can change one, much less three or four states’ results,” radio host and author Hugh Hewitt tweeted Thursday morning. “Perhaps one is forthcoming, but not filed yet.” Hewitt’s second sentence was charitable: Yes, there still is a possibility that some super-lawsuit is on the way, but no indication that one actually is.
But what if there were recounts in key states? In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this morning, Republican strategist Karl Rove notes that in the last 50 years there have only been three recounts that overturned the results of statewide elections — a Senate race in New Hampshire in 1974, a governor’s race in Washington state in 2004, and a Senate race in Minnesota in 2008. “The candidates in these races were separated, respectively, by 355, 261, and 215 votes after Election Day,” Rove notes. That strongly suggests there is no chance of a recount overturning a 10,000-plus vote lead, much less of that happening in three states.
None of this is terribly hard to believe. Look at it this way: In 2016, Trump won by pulling off narrow victories in a few key states. In 2020, he lost by suffering narrow defeats in some of those same places. There is not a huge difference between a narrow victory and a narrow defeat. The change from 2016 to 2020 is not surprising, especially given the beating Trump endured on every single day of his presidency.
Indeed, rather than focus on mail-in ballots or election observers in Michigan, it makes more sense to look at Trump’s loss as the result of that daily beating — a media establishment, an entertainment industry, academia, the government’s permanent bureaucracy, and a massive special counsel investigation all trying to bring Trump down every single moment of his presidency. It took a toll. It had too.
Now, Trump keeps on. He genuinely (and correctly) believes he has been treated unfairly over the last four years, and it is important for him to be seen as going down fighting. More than 70 million Americans voted for him — the highest number for any candidate ever, except Biden this year. They believe in him, and many worked hard to win his re-election. They did not want to see him throw in the towel without a fight.
In addition, he can point to an impressive list of accomplishments. A low-unemployment economy that was strong before coronavirus and is making a strong recovery today. Solid wage growth for workers at the lower end of the income scale. Deregulation that fueled economic growth. Three Supreme Court confirmations and a record number of appeals court nominations that will leave his stamp on the judiciary for a generation. Energy independence. An enormous reduction in illegal crossings into the United States on the Mexican border. Significant progress in the Middle East. The destruction of ISIS and the killing of key bad actors like ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Iranian Quds force head Qassem Soleimani. And more. It’s quite a record, and Trump can — and should — spend his last weeks in office reminding Americans of it.
