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YES, THE RACE REALLY IS TIGHTENING. A lot of chatter about a new Washington Post-ABC News poll of two key states in the presidential race, Florida and Arizona. Florida is absolutely critical to President Trump’s re-election plans; it is hard to see him winning without winning Florida. And Arizona, which Trump won in 2016, has seemed increasingly out of reach for the president in recent polling.
But with this new poll, both seem definitely in play. In Florida, the Post poll has Trump up by four points over Joe Biden, 51 to 47. Back in July, the RealClearPolitics average of polls had Biden up by eight percentage points in Florida. Recently, polls have gotten tighter — Biden up by two or three points — but the Post poll is the only the second of the last 35 surveys that shows Trump in the lead.
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In Arizona, the Post poll shows Trump up by a single point, 49 to 48. Polls in the last couple of months had Biden consistently leading by four or five points. From the new poll:
In addition, the new poll shows Arizona Republican Sen. Martha McSally alive and kicking in her race to win a term for herself. The survey shows McSally trailing Democrat Mark Kelly by one point, 49 to 48. But that is a huge improvement over recent polling. The RealClearPolitics average of polls showed Kelly up by eleven points earlier this month. One poll does not define the race, but other polls have shown the contest getting closer in recent weeks.
So what does it mean? First of all, it shows the importance of polling likely voters. Most polls that are taken months ahead of an election focus on registered voters. That’s fine; at that point, it can be difficult to determine who is most likely to vote on election day. But as the race nears, there are more polls of likely voters, that is, people who show the signs — past voting activity, in particular — of being very likely to actually cast a vote in November. And sometimes, when the focus is on likely voters, the results look a bit different.
That is what is happening now. In other words, the presidential race has probably always been closer than it seemed. Now, we’re beginning to see that in the polls.
