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HOUSE DEMOCRATS HEAD FOR THE EXITS. It’s the most basic measure of optimism and sense of purpose among members of the House of Representatives: How many of them decide not to run for reelection? There are always going to be some departures — people get a new opportunity in life, or decide to seek another office, or get old and retire. But after taking those into account, when many representatives of one party decide to leave, giving up on their future as a member of Congress, it’s a good sign that something is wrong.
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And something is wrong with House Democrats. Late Tuesday, Michigan Democratic Rep. Brenda Lawrence became the 25th Democrat to announce she is leaving the House. Given that it’s still early January, that number is likely to grow. And it is in contrast to just 11 Republicans who have chosen to leave.
The message is that Democrats believe they’re going to lose this November. Historically, a new president’s party loses a lot of seats in that president’s first midterm elections. Indeed, in fall 2018, when House Republicans were heading for the exits, Gallup reported that the average loss for a party, when its president stood below 50% in job approval rating, was 37 seats. And in 2018, with an unpopular President Donald Trump in the White House, Republicans lost 40 seats in the House. Before that happened, though, a total of 34 Republicans decided not to run for reelection. They could see what was coming.
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So now an unpopular President Joe Biden is well below 50% in job approval rating. And Democrats control the House by a dangerously narrow five-seat majority. Given history, and given the public’s growing unhappiness with Biden and his party, what are the chances Democrats will somehow keep that majority? It appears many Democrats believe those chances are slim to none. So 25 of them — so far — have chosen not to run again. Maybe that number will increase to match the 34 Republicans who bailed in 2018. But even if it doesn’t, that’s a lot of departures for a party with the barest of majorities.
This presents a huge opportunity for House Republicans. By all accounts, GOP leader Kevin McCarthy is ready to take it. In the 2020 House elections, when Republicans were expected to lose seats amid a Democratic presidential victory, McCarthy and the GOP actually picked up seats and nearly won control. That was the result of meticulous planning; McCarthy devoted an extraordinary amount of time to analyzing each district, each candidate, each situation, working to find and exploit Democratic weaknesses and identify the best Republican candidate for each seat.
Now, McCarthy is doing it again, only this time under circumstances much more favorable to Republicans. Bottom line: Can you really believe all the predictions of a coming GOP victory? Well, the unexpected can always happen, and the conventional wisdom can be proven wrong. But look at those departing House Democrats. They know the situation from the inside, and they’re throwing in the towel.
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