MIDTERMS, PHASE THREE: RED WAVE, BACK ON? The 2022 midterm campaign has gone through two distinct phases and has now entered a third. In the first phase, lasting about 12 months and ending in late June of this year, Republicans were the clear favorite to win control of the House, and probably win big. In the second phase, from late June until mid-September, the race was much more competitive, with most observers still predicting a GOP victory in the House, but a much narrower one than earlier thought. Some even said Democrats had at least an outside chance of keeping the House. But now, we are in a new phase in which the odds of a big Republican victory have risen again.
You can actually put dates on the changes. The first phase began on June 10, 2021, when the government reported that inflation rose 5% on an annual basis in the previous month — the largest 12-month increase since 2008. Hitting 5% was an alarm bell for inflation. It followed immediately after President Joe Biden, then less than two months in office, signed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan into law, a move that several experts predicted would fuel inflation.
The first midterm phase ended, and the second began, on June 24, when the Supreme Court handed down the Dobbs decision, ending the nearly 50-year reign of Roe v. Wade. As many conservatives hoped, the decision immediately set off a nationwide and state-by-state political debate over abortion. As many conservatives had likely not hoped, that debate sometimes tilted in favor of pro-choice Democrats. Democratic strategists hoped that abortion would displace inflation as the voters’ No. 1 concern, increasing the party’s chances in November. That never came close to happening, but abortion did rise on the list of voters’ top issues, and the midterm races suddenly seemed much closer. Many analysts reduced their predicted margin of GOP victory.
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The second midterm phase ended on Sept. 13, when the government released statistics suggesting that inflation has become a chronic problem that will require significant economic pain to solve. Although the consumer price index actually ticked down one-tenth of 1% that month, what is called “core inflation,” that is, inflation without the volatile elements of energy and food prices, rose a worrying amount. Any hope that inflation might just go away disappeared.
All this time, the Federal Reserve reacted to the situation by aggressively raising interest rates, increasing worries that a recession is inevitable. We have already had two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, which is a common definition of a recession. But the Biden White House argued strongly that other economic indicators, such as jobs, meant that the U.S. economy is not in recession. Now, though, with the Fed persisting in using interest rates as its primary weapon against inflation — and no longer pretending that a so-called soft landing is possible — a recession that no one can deny seems to be on the horizon.
So, now we are in Midterms, Phase Three. A red wave again appears to be a distinct possibility. A new poll of likely voters from the New York Times and Siena puts Biden’s job approval rating at 39% — a good predictor of a bad midterm result for his party. The poll, along with others, gives Republicans an edge, in this case 4 points, in the generic ballot. And then look at the poll’s findings on what are the voting public’s most important issues:
The question was: “What do you think is the MOST important problem facing the country today?” Of likely voters, 26% said “the economy,” while 18% said “inflation or the cost of living.” Put those together, and that is 44% citing economic issues as most important to them. And abortion? Five percent called it the most important problem facing the country today. Among no group — not young voters, not women, not young women, not Democratic women, not anyone — was abortion the top concern.
Cut to a new analysis from CNN with the headline “A Republican wave in the House is still quite possible.” Elections specialist Harry Enten writes, “I’d make the argument … that we’re underselling the potential of a big Republican night.” There is, Enten said, “potential for a GOP blowout.” Among the reasons Enten cites are the election analyses from the Cook Political Report and others that classify each House race as safe Republican, or safe Democrat, etc. A number of races are rated toss-ups, while others are said to lean toward either the GOP or Democrats. “When one party has more races in these two designations, it tends to do poorly,” Enten writes. “Right now, there are 23 more Democratic-held seats than Republicans ones in either the toss-up or leaning category.”
Here’s the bottom line. The economy, including inflation, is the most important issue in the midterm race. It always has been. Barring some enormous, world-historical catastrophe in the next three weeks, it will remain so on Election Day. There is no game-changing good economic news on deck for the near future. That kills the chances of the party in power, and the Democrats are the party in power.
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