WHERE TRUMP STANDS ON THE BORDER AND IMMIGRATION. As the Battle of Minneapolis (possibly) enters a new stage, there is a just-released poll from Fox News that sheds light on the public’s view of the fight over the enforcement of federal immigration law.
First, the question of approval of President Donald Trump’s policies. You’ve probably seen a lot of polls that measure Trump’s approval on immigration but don’t specify just what that means. Does it mean the way Trump has handled border security, or the broader issue of immigration, or both? The Fox poll broke that into two questions: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling border security? And, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling immigration?
The border question yielded the only majority approval for Trump on any issue — 52% approval versus 47% disapproval. It seems notable that 47% of Americans disapprove of the way Trump has handled the border, but that number was driven by the 83% of Democrats who said they disapprove. They disapprove of everything Trump does, of course, and by larger percentages; the 83% disapproval among Democrats is actually lower than Democrats’ disapproval of Trump on most issues. In addition, 57% of independents said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the border. It was the 89% approval among Republicans that kept Trump in majority territory.
On the other question — approval/disapproval on the issue of immigration — Trump stood at 45% approval and 55% disapproval. Eighty-five percent of Republicans approve, while 91% of Democrats and 71% of independents disapprove. An overall approval rating of 45% is certainly not great, but the immigration number is actually, along with border security, one of the two highest issue approvals Trump has. Everything else is lower, going down to the 31% who approve of Trump’s overtures on Greenland.
The other issue the Fox poll shed light on is opinion about Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE. Do Democrats really want to abolish ICE? The party leadership won’t go there, as much as they criticize ICE. But does the rank-and-file follow the leadership, or do they follow progressive icons like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar and others, who want to get rid of ICE?
And the answer is: A lot of Democrats want to abolish ICE. In the Fox poll, 59% of Democrats surveyed said yes, they want to abolish ICE, while 21% said no, they do not, and 20% said they don’t know. Independents were evenly split three ways, with 33% favoring abolition, 31% opposing it, and 36% saying they don’t know. Among Republicans, 66% oppose abolishing ICE, while 16% favor it and 18% say they don’t know. Among self-identified liberals, 63% support abolishing ICE. So do 58% of those who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. The bottom line is, enough Democrats favor abolishing ICE that party leaders will inevitably feel pressure on the issue.
The Fox pollsters also asked a less drastic question about ICE: “Do you think [ICE] is being too aggressive in its efforts to deport illegal immigrants, not aggressive enough, or about right?” Overall, 59% said too aggressive, while 41% said ICE’s approach is either about right or not aggressive enough. Among Democrats, 88% ICE is being too aggressive, and among independents, 71% agreed. Among Republicans, just 27% said ICE is being too aggressive.
Then Fox elicited some interesting context. Addressing only those who said ICE is too aggressive, the pollsters asked, “Is the reason you say ICE is being too aggressive more because you think ICE is using too much force or more because you think it is targeting the wrong people?” In every group, the largest portion said the problem is ICE is using too much force. Among Democrats, 42% cited too much force, while 39% of independents and 54% of Republicans did.
Remember, those are just the people who said ICE is being too aggressive. But it suggests the administration’s biggest problem is not how it is targeting illegal immigrants but rather the level of force it is using.
Put it all together, and the poll suggests the Trump administration can win more public approval by adjusting ICE’s tactics while keeping the agency’s mission unchanged. That seems to be precisely what it is doing now, with the assignment of “border czar” Tom Homan to Minneapolis. We’ll see whether it works.
