THE ARRIVAL OF DIVIDED GOVERNMENT. It has long been a truism that a president’s job approval rating is the best indicator of how his party will perform in midterm elections. On Election Day 2026, President Donald Trump‘s approval rating was a low 39.1%, with 59.1% disapproval, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. For months, the Republican Party was clearly headed for a loss of the House, while the fate of the Senate was not as clear. Now it is — with resounding Democratic victories in both chambers of Congress, the midterm was a broad-based, coast-to-coast repudiation of the president.
Now, what will happen with a Democratic House and Senate and a Republican White House? On the question of legislation, Democrats will clearly be able to pass their agenda, whatever it is, in the House. In the past, House-passed bills would then run into the brick wall of the Senate filibuster. But now, as they had in January 2022, Democrats will have an opportunity to eliminate the filibuster. Back then, they failed because two Democratic senators, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, would not go along. Now, both Manchin and Sinema are gone. And now, if Democrats are united, they can kill the filibuster. Then, if Trump wants to stop legislation, he will have to veto it.
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A unified Democratic Senate majority will also be able to kill Trump’s nominations, both for the judiciary and for his administration. Unless there is some way to find compromise candidates, it could be very hard for the president to get his choices through the Senate confirmation process. And if there is a Supreme Court vacancy in the next two years, look for total war — a war that, if Senate Democrats stay united, they can win.
Then there is oversight. Democrats in both chambers have made clear that they intend to spend much of their time investigating Trump and his family. They will most certainly investigate the family’s wildly profitable cryptocurrency scheme, the business dealings of Trump son-in-law and envoy Jared Kushner, Russian gifts to pay for Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding, the granting of pardons, and, of course, the Jeffrey Epstein matter. They will also target Trump administration officials, starting with War Secretary Pete Hegseth, for investigation and possible impeachment.
On Tuesday night, when victory was clear, Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA), who will become chairman of the House oversight committee, reminded the public that he “has vowed to take on the Trump Crime Family, corporate corruption, DHS and ICE abuses, and the coverup of the Epstein files.” Garcia then issued a two-word statement: “Lawyer up.”
Then there is the question of impeaching the president. Since there have already been two unsuccessful impeachments, and since Trump was elected president after having been impeached twice, some Democrats are urging caution in the new Congress.
But many Democratic lawmakers are obviously itching to go after Trump. Their zeal concerns more sober Democrats who believe the party should devote more of its time to addressing the cost of living and other issues that won the election. But be real: Does anyone believe that a new Democratic House majority that might reach 250 members will not impeach Trump? After a victory like Tuesday’s, many Democrats will believe they have a mandate to pursue the president to the very end.
And that leads to a final point. A majority of voters will likely be fine with some of the Trump investigations. But if we have learned anything from the last 10 years, it is that Trump’s pursuers have an irresistible urge to overreach. And when they do, they strengthen support for Trump among his political base and some independents.
That seems almost guaranteed to happen in the coming year. And when it does, the era of the new Democratic majority won’t be about affordability, or healthcare, or housing. It will be all about Donald Trump and a desperate battle over his political survival.