Daily on Defense — Dec. 6, 2016 — Mattis’ growing fan club

MAD DOG’s GROWING FAN CLUB: Reuters polled some of the big names attending the Reagan National Defense Forum in California this week, and found pretty much everyone’s on board with the idea that Mattis should be granted a congressional waiver of the seven-year rule, so he can serve as Pentagon chief. Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who also served as CIA director, said Mattis “shares beliefs that have been at the heart and soul of protecting our national security for a long time.” Joint Chiefs Chairman Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford was also asked at the forum about the prospect his former commander would soon be his civilian boss. “Do I have any concerns? No,” Dunford said.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter, who insisted on having a civilian spokesman for the department, and replaced then-Rear Adm. John Kirby to underscore the principle of civilian control of the military, endorsed Mattis as “an extremely capable person,” but stopped short of saying he should get a waiver. He told reporters traveling with him to Japan, “The issue of his confirmation is an issue for the next president and for the Congress.”

Meanwhile, Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, a former Marine officer, told reporters traveling with him to California that Mattis enjoys rare bipartisan support. “Everyone has great confidence that he’s going to be able to master the job, both sides of the aisle,” according to Reuters. House Armed Service Chairman Mac Thornberry says he hopes to fast-track the waiver process, so that Mattis can be confirmed by Inauguration Day Jan. 20. So far two Democrats have said they’ll vote against the waiver. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Marine veteran, said Mattis’ legendary career should not exempt him from the requirement to be out of uniform for seven years before serving as SecDef. “I do not believe this long-standing check should be cast aside, and I will oppose a waiver of this rule, even for someone as exceptionally qualified as Gen. Mattis,” Gallego said. He joins Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in his opposition.

BLOATED BUDGET BLOCKBUSTER: Trump was roundly derided by his critics in September when he said in a speech in Philadelphia that he would fund a massive military buildup by “common sense reforms that eliminate government waste and budget gimmicks,” along with “responsible workforce attrition,” and trimming the “military bureaucracy.” Last night, the Washington Post published a stunning exposé on how an internal Pentagon study found a way to save as much as $125 billion (that’s billion with a “B”) over five years by getting rid of “administrative waste,” in overhead expenses in the Defense Department. And then instead of moving to cut the bloated bureaucracy, the Post report alleges Pentagon officials buried the study so it would not be used as justification for cutting the defense budget. The 2015 study by the Defense Business Board found that the Pentagon has almost as many people working desk jobs (1,014,000 contractors, civilians and uniformed personnel) as it does active-duty troops. (1.3 million, the fewest since 1940.) You can bet this report has more than a few bureaucrats sweating bullets.

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HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence receives two closed classified briefings this week. The first is today at 2:30, and the second is tomorrow at 3:30. Both are in Hart 2019.

OBAMA’S LAST CT SPEECH: President Obama heads to MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, this afternoon to deliver what the White House has billed as his final speech about U.S. counterterrorism strategy. MacDill is headquarters for U.S. Special Operations Command as well as U.S. Central Command. Obama will discuss the progress his administration has made in fighting overseas terrorism and encourage his successor to develop a similarly “sustainable” counterterrorism policy, writes Gabby Morrongiello. While there, the president will meet with some of the troops including members of special ops teams who have played key roles in counterterrorism efforts during his presidency, the White House said.

FIGHTING TERRORISM FOR DUMMIES: It’s not meant as a how-to guide for the next administration, but the lengthy report (61 pages) put out by the White House might as well be a textbook for conducting counterterrorism policy. The report titled, “Legal and Policy Transparency Concerning United States’ Use of Military Force and Related National Security Operations,” outlines all ongoing U.S. military operations, and the sometimes convoluted legal arguments used to justify them. Pages 22 and 23, for instance describe the criteria for killing a U.S. citizen abroad with a drone strike. The report, which contains little new information but does conveniently compile it all in one document, was released by the White House in the name of transparency. “The Presidential Memorandum and accompanying report issued today help to demonstrate that the United States acts consistently with our values and all applicable law, including the law of armed conflict and international human rights law,” the White House said.

TEMPEST OVER TAIWAN: The White House yesterday encouraged Trump to take advantage of the “expertise and advice” of career diplomats at the State Department as the controversy surrounding the incoming president’s recent call with Taiwan continues to boil over. Spokesman Josh Earnest said, “Whenever you are talking about the president-elect interacting with foreign leaders, it’s incredibly important. It has profound consequences for our country and for our national interests around the world.” Meanwhile Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a possible contender for secretary of state in the next administration, lauded Trump’s controversial phone call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. “He showed the dictators in Beijing that he’s not a pushover,” said Rohrabacher, appearing on Fox News. In Taipei Tuesday, Tsai told reporters her call to Trump did not signal any change in policy. “Of course I have to stress that one phone call does not mean a policy shift,” she told a small group of American journalists. “The phone call was a way for us to express our respect for the U.S. election as well as congratulate President-elect Trump on his win.”

ALEPPO IS LOST: It looks as though Syrian President Bashar Assad is on the verge of his biggest victory, thanks to Vladimir Putin’s air force. Russia and the United States will attempt to negotiate terms for the withdrawal of rebel groups from the key Syrian city of Aleppo, following weeks of Russian and Syrian bombardment, Joel Gehrke writes. “Those armed groups who refuse to leave eastern Aleppo will be considered to be terrorists,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday, according to Reuters. “We will treat them as such, as terrorists, as extremists and will support a Syrian army operation against those criminal squads.”

MOSUL LIBERATION POSSIBLE NEXT MONTH: Carter told reporters traveling with him that the Iraqi operation to liberate Mosul could be over before Trump takes office. “I have always said I hope as soon as possible. But this is a war, so I’m not gonna predict that. That’s certainly possible but again, it’s gonna be a tough fight,” Carter said on his plane to Tokyo. He said the operation is on schedule and victory is certain. “It’s pretty much going down the path that we expected, and I’m confident of the outcome. I mean, ISIL will be in the hands of the Iraqis, no doubt about it,” Carter said.

VISAS FOR AFGHANS: Lawmakers on both sides of the Capitol have promised to fight for more special immigrant visas in 2017 after the defense policy bill approved only 1,500 additional visas, less than half of the 4,000 requested by the Obama administration. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell filed cloture on the National Defense Authorization Act on Monday, meaning a procedural vote could come on Wednesday morning.

FORBES’ BIGGEST FAN: Democratic Rep. Joe Courtney sent a letter to the Trump camp saying there is “no better individual” to serve as Navy secretary than Rep. Randy Forbes. “Having seen Randy at work up close in hearings, meetings and all-night markups, I know that he truly understands both the big picture strategic challenges we face, along with the day-to-day responsibilities of leading the Navy,” Courtney wrote in the letter. Forbes was also seen on C-SPAN’s elevator cam in the Trump tower lobby on Monday.

But not everyone who may serve in Trump’s administration is getting such unqualified praise. More than 50 liberal organizations sent a letter to Trump on Monday calling his appointment of retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn to serve as national security adviser “a frightening prospect for anyone who values America’s national security.”

KNOCK OFF THE FAKE NEWS: The top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee slammed Trump and his transition team on Monday evening for making decisions and statements over the past month that he claims could have “dangerous consequences,” including life-threatening ones. “From birther claims about President Obama to the blatant falsehood that millions of undocumented immigrants voted in the most recent elections, and outrageous conspiracy theories and fake news like ‘Pizza-gate,’ the President-elect and his transition team have been willing to peddle complete fabrications with little regard for their dangerous consequences – something that has now come close to having deadly results,” Rep. Adam Schiff wrote in a statement. The Washington Post reports at least two prominent members of the Trump transition team, Michael Flynn and his son Michael G. Flynn, used their social media accounts during the campaign to promote baseless claims, including that members of Hillary Clinton’s campaign were implicated in a child prostitution ring.

NEWS FROM WEST WORLD: Former Florida Republican Rep. Allen West was spotted leaving Trump Tower in Manhattan on Monday afternoon following a meeting with Vice President-elect Mike Pence and other transition team members. The retired Army lieutenant colonel told members of the press he also spoke with Flynn and K.T. McFarland, the president-elect’s deputy national security adviser.

ONCE MORE INTO THE DRINK: A second Russian jet belong to the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov operating off Syria has crashed, according to reports. This time, an Su-33 skidded off the deck after an arresting gear cable snapped. According to Kremlin-backed Russia Today, the Defense Ministry said the pilot ejected before the plane crashed into the sea. In mid-November, a MiG-29 crashed after takeoff. In both cases, the pilot ejected unharmed. (Hat tip to Stars and Stripes’ Alex Horton for the headline.)

ICE ICE NAVY: If Monday night’s showdown on the Verizon Center ice is any indication of how this weekend’s Army-Navy football game will go, Army may finally break its 14-year losing streak. The military held a hockey game ahead of the football matchup to celebrate the historic rivalry between the two teams. Army won 5-3.

Skating on the Army team, which was coached by Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, was Army Undersecretary Patrick Murphy, a former collegiate hockey player who tells us he led his college team in both penalties and points (though he had neither in Monday night’s game). Vice Adm. Ted Carter, the superintendent of the Naval Academy, coached the Navy team.

THE RUNDOWN

BBC: North Korea ‘hacks South’s military cyber command

Defense News: Work: Munitions, Strategic Capabilities Office Boosted in FY18 Budget Plan

Breaking Defense: Trouble For Trump: Fixing Sequester, DoD Budget May Be A ‘Bloodbath’

Forbes: How Defense Secretary James ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis Will Remake The Pentagon

Defense One: Will Obama’s Mattis Be Trump’s Mattis?

Associated Press: Carter’s Asia trip spotlights issues for next Pentagon head

Washington Times: Pentagon says Russia ‘No. 1 threat’ as Putin presides over frenzied defense spending

War on the Rocks: Afghanistan will be the Trump administration’s first foreign policy crisis

Wall Street Journal: U.S. Seeks to Maintain Fragile Anti-ISIS Alliance in Iraq

Air Force Times: Congress readies smaller pilot bonus hike than James requested

UPI: ULA receives $269m contract modification for launch vehicle production

Defense One: The US Is Losing at Influence Warfare. Here’s Why

UPI: Russia’s military to monitor foreign ships with underwater robots

Military.com: SecNav Recommends Two Sailors for Medal of Honor

Reuters: U.S. military to return some land in Okinawa by year end

New York Post: A Bergdahl pardon would be Obama’s final betrayal of the military

Calendar

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 6

7:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. Defense One hosts an event on what helicopters will look like in 2030. defenseone.com

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. The Senate Armed Services Committee receives testimony from a panel of think tank experts about emerging U.S. defense challenges and worldwide threats. armed-services.senate.gov

9:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The architect of the CIA’s enhanced interrogation programs will talk about his interrogations of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. aei.org

2 p.m. The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific holds a hearing on the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia. foreignaffairs.house.gov

2:45 p.m. Dirksen 419. Think tank analysts testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about defeating Iranian proxies. foreign.senate.gov

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 7

8:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The U.S. Naval Institute hosts its 2016 Defense Forum, including sessions with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller, Rep. Randy Forbes, and Rep. Ryan Zinke. usni.org

9:15 a.m. Livestream. The Council on Foreign Relations hosts three talks about how engaging women can help counter violent extremists. cfr.org

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Rep. Michael McCaul keynotes the Heritage Foundation’s annual state of homeland security address. heritage.org

2 p.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee holds a hearing on the California National Guard bonus repayment issue. armedservices.house.gov

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 8

9 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Navy officials and experts testify about oversight of the littoral combat ship program. armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 419. State Department officials testify about challenges facing the department and USAID under the next administration. foreign.senate.gov

10:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A panel, including Army Secretary Eric Fanning, talks about the future of the all-volunteer force. brookings.edu

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts a panel discussion on how Trump’s administration should improve America’s nuclear weapons and missile defense policy. heritage.org

12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Cato Institute hosts an event looking at how to convince China to work with the U.S. to coerce North Korea to halt its nuclear weapons program. cato.org

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 9

7:30 a.m. 300 1st St. SE. Gen. Jay Raymond, the commander of Air Force Space Command, speaks at a breakfast event. mitchellaerospacepower.org

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Officials from the Army, Marine Corps and special operations communities talk about what requirements each service is looking for in future vertical lift capabilities. csis.org

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Rep. Ryan Zinke, a former Navy SEAL, discusses his new book, American Commander. heritage.org

MONDAY | DECEMBER 12

10 a.m. 25 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A panel talks about what the U.S. surveillance policy should be in 2017 and beyond. cnas.org