Daily on Defense — Dec. 5, 2016 — Red storm rising

RED STORM RISING: President-elect Trump fired off a pair of tweets last night indicating he’s ready to mix it up with China, while his vice president-elect downplayed Trump’s recent phone conversation with Taiwan’s new president as another media-generated controversy. Mike Pence, appearing on both NBC and ABC, characterized the Friday call from President Tsai Ing-wen ­as a routine congratulatory call, no different from ones Trump has received from more than 50 foreign leaders since his election Nov. 8, and said Trump was simply being “gracious.”  On NBC, Pence said, “I think I would just say to our counterparts in China that this was a moment of courtesy. The president-elect talked to President Xi [Jinping] two weeks ago in the same manner. That was not a discussion about policy.” Secretary of State John Kerry says no one from Trump’s campaign reached out anyone at State, which observers say raises questions about whether Trump understands, or fully supports the U.S.’s longstanding One China policy.

Meanwhile the president-elect got on Twitter last night to unleash, if not quite a tweet storm, then a tweet drizzle, tweaking China over its military buildup in the South China Sea, and repeating his long-stated view that China is a “currency manipulator.” Since being criticized for breaking with longstanding U.S. policy on China by communicating directly with Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province, Trump has been unapologetic. And the Washington Post last night, citing “interviews with people involved in the planning,” claims the in-your-face posture is a calculated move pushed by hard-liners in the Trump camp who want to take a tough line with Beijing right from the get-go. “The historic communication… was the product of months of quiet preparations and deliberations among Trump’s advisers about a new strategy for engagement with Taiwan that began even before he became the Republican presidential nominee,” the paper reports.

ROMNEY FADES AS THE FIELD EXPANDS: While it had seemed likely we might learn Trump’s choice for secretary of state by now, it now appears the announcement could be a week or two away, according to incoming Chief of Staff Reince Priebus. Another key Trump aide Kellyanne Conway says the search has expanded beyond the four finalists the transition team had reportedly been vetting this past week. Among the new names in the mix, Jon Huntsman, a former U.S. ambassador to China. That would seem to indicate Mitt Romney’s star is fading amid a deep division among Trump’s team, and that is giving rise to dark horse candidate Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a foreign policy tough guy who once arm wrestled Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to insiders, Paul Bedard writes. The Trump Cabinet executive committee is also eyeing long-time Republican diplomat John Bolton as deputy secretary of state, though there are some who prefer him in the top job. Also, retired Adm. James Stavridis, a former supreme NATO commander and current Trump critic, meets with Trump Thursday. Stavridis, once vetted as a possible VP for Hillary Clinton, is now dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

BREAKING THIS MORNING: From the AP: “Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Monday he will visit Pearl Harbor with U.S. President Barack Obama at the end of this month, becoming the first leader of his country to go to the U.S. naval base in Hawaii that Japan attacked in 1941, propelling the United States into World War II.”

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SEQUESTER AT HALFTIME: It was the law that was supposed to break the budget deadlock and force a common-sense compromise between deficit hawks and doves. Instead it’s been an albatross around the neck of budgeteers and the bane of the Pentagon. Sequestration, the across-the-board spending caps imposed unintentionally by the Budget Control Act of 2011 is halfway through its scheduled 10-year timeframe, and in some ways its effects have been surprising. Read our special report on the law everybody loves to hate in our magazine available on the streets downtown, or conveniently here at washingtonexaminer.com.

NDAA NEARS THE FINISH LINE: The House passed the National Defense Authorization Act on Friday by an overwhelmingly bipartisan 375-34 vote. The Senate is expected to pass the bill this week, but the White House has not yet said whether the president will sign the bill, which authorizes a funding level $3.2 billion higher than the one President Obama asked for.

VOICE FOR GOOD? In a move that will no doubt raise the hackles of government journalists at Voice of America, the NDAA passed by the House on Friday would revive a Cold War tool that the federal government could start using once again to counteract Russian propaganda through U.S.-sponsored broadcasting, Joel Gehrke writes. House lawmakers tucked language in the NDAA aimed at using Voice of America, which prides itself on independent journalism, to fight Russian agitprop. The provision is one of the first legislative acts by Congress aimed at combating the spread of Russian propaganda that has alarmed policymakers in the United States and Europe. “The United States’ response to this onslaught of propaganda has been crippled, in part, by bureaucracy,” House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Ed Royce said in a statement following the NDAA vote. “Our agencies that helped take down the Iron Curtain with accurate and timely broadcasting have lost their edge. They must be revitalized to effectively carry out their mission in this age of viral terrorism and digital propaganda.”

ISIS PLAN FOR TRUMP: Trump famously said he knows more than the generals, but that won’t stop them from trying to give him options anyway, Robert King writes. The Joint Chiefs are preparing a new plan to defeat the Islamic State that falls in line with campaign pledges from Trump, according to reports. Chairman Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford told the annual Reagan National Security Forum that it is preparing a new plan to defeat the terrorist group. Dunford said that there are “some things that we probably would bring into the new administration for consideration.”

NAVY CAN GETS SHIPS TOGETHER, IF TRUMP GETS ASSETS IN GEAR: Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson told Reuters at the annual Reagan Forum that the U.S. arms industry is ready and capable of boosting production of new ships if Trump puts money behind his vow to expand the U.S. Navy to 350 ships. Shifting the current target of 308 ships upward would be “remarkably easy” as long as there is funding to pay the bill, Richardson told the news agency. “If it’s resourced, it’s a matter of working closely with the industrial base, and they definitely are ready to do that,” he said, adding the only limiting factor would be hiring and training workers to build the new ships.

BEGGING YOUR PARDON: Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, who deserted his Army outpost and was taken prisoner by the Taliban, has asked Obama to pardon him before leaving the White House next month, according to a report Friday evening, Anna Giaritelli writes. Bergdahl was freed following five years in captivity in 2014 when the U.S. gave up five Taliban detainees in return for the disgraced service member. The letter was addressed to Obama and thanked him for making the swap that brought him back to the U.S. He is now petitioning the Justice Department for clemency before Trump takes office. Bergdahl’s lawyer says if his client isn’t pardoned, he will move to have the charges dropped, citing the new commander in chief’s prejudicial attacks on Bergdahl’s during the campaign. Last year Trump called Bergdahl, “a dirty rotten traitor,” and suggested he should face a firing squad.

SANCTIONS SIGNING: Obama is expected to sign legislation renewing non-nuclear sanctions on Iran, despite characterizing the restrictions as “unnecessary” and refusing to push for the extension, the White House said Friday, Gabby Morrongiello writes. “We have long said that extending the Iran Sanctions Act was unnecessary,” deputy White House press secretary Eric Schultz told reporters at the daily briefing. “We believe the Iran Sanctions Act extension is not necessary, but we also believe it won’t interfere with the Iran deal.”

TRUMP’S OWN IRAN SANCTIONS: Aides to Trump have reportedly reached out to Republican lawmakers to discuss the possibility of levying additional sanctions on Iran that would be unrelated to country’s nuclear program, Gabby Morrongiello writes. “They are already looking closely at their options – and that includes non-nuclear sanctions,” a congressional staffer who has been in contact with Trump’s team told The Financial Times on Friday. Transition officials are said to be weighing sanctions that would target Iran’s ballistic missile program or its human rights abuses, neither of which would interfere with the Iran nuclear agreement between the U.S., Iran and other world powers, often described by Trump as the “worst deal ever negotiated.”

TRUMP’S NAVY PICKS: A source with knowledge of transition decisions told us that Rep. Randy Forbes, chairman of the House Armed Services Seapower Subcommittee, is the top contender to serve as the secretary of the Navy in Trump’s Pentagon. Trump’s top choice for the No. 2 job as undersecretary of the Navy is Jerry Hendrix, a senior fellow at the Center for New American Security and retired Navy captain. All these decisions, however, will need to be approved by retired Gen. Jim Mattis, who will be tapped as defense secretary today.

MATTIS FILIBUSTER?: Confirming Mattis is expected to be easy, but getting there presents a challenge, Joel Gehrke writes. First, Congress must pass, and the president must sign a waiver of the requirement that a former officer be out of uniform for at least seven years before taking over the Pentagon. Mattis retired just three years ago in 2013. The narrow debate over that exemption could become the scene of a heated contest over Trump’s policies and an early opportunity to wound the incoming administration. While Mattis’ nomination is not subject to filibuster thanks to a rule change by the Democrats, the waiver, which is just an ordinary law, would be. That will give Senate Dems a chance to slow roll the bill. “There’s an argument to be made for using the Mattis nomination to debate Trump’s Dr. Strangelove foreign policy, including the Flynn appointment, which we don’t get to debate otherwise,” a Senate Democratic leadership aide said. It’s not at all clear Democrats would want to roll the dice. Mattis is almost universally praised, and is seen by many liberals as a check on Trump’s more dangerous impulses. Rejecting Mattis could produce a candidate they like much less.

CARTER COMPLIMENTS MATTIS: Defense Secretary Ash Carter had some nice things to say about Mattis. During a speech this weekend at the Reagan Defense Forum, Carter said he will work toward an “orderly transfer” to the next commander in chief before offering praise to Mattis. “Let me also congratulate Gen. Jim Mattis for being chosen to take my place. I’ve worked with Jim for many years. He’s a friend and I hold him in the highest regard,” Carter said.

TRUMP INVITES DUTERTE TO DC: Trump has reportedly invited Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who made a series of controversial comments about Obama less than two months ago and compared himself to Adolf Hitler, to visit the White House once he takes over the presidency on Jan. 20, Gabby Morrongiello writes. Trump spoke with Duterte by phone on Friday in what an aide to the Filipino leader later described as a “very engaging, animated” conversation, according to Reuters. CNN reports Duterte claimed Trump told him that he is going about his controversial fight against drugs “the right way.”

NO ROLE FOR GATES: Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters he will not be involved in the next administration, following a meeting with Trump on Friday, Gabby Morrongiello reports. While exiting Trump Tower, Gates was asked whether he anticipates serving under the incoming Republican president. “No,” he said, shaking his head and walking away.

SNOWDEN’S SNOW JOB: Former NSA contractor Edward Snowden claimed in an interview excerpt published Sunday that potential Secretary of State and retired Gen. David Petraeus disclosed “far more highly classified” information than he did. Snowden told Yahoo News’ Katie Couric that the Petraeus case shows “we have a two-tiered system of justice in the United States, where people who are either well connected to government or they have access to an incredible amount of resources get very light punishments.” Defending himself on ABC yesterday, Petraeus pointed out the difference between his case and Snowden’s. “The FBI in the agreement acknowledged that nothing that was in my journals that I shared certainly improperly ended up in the biography or made it out to the public,” Petraeus said. “I think that’s a fairly significant point.” In contrast, Snowden leaked up to 200,000 classified documents to journalists, but downloaded a total of 1.5 million documents, something the the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said last year “has done untold damage” to U.S. intelligence.

WHO DID PETRAEUS VOTE FOR?: “I don’t vote, so that’s an easy answer,” Petraeus told ABC News when asked if he backed Trump in his campaign against Clinton. “I also did not support him nor did I oppose him. Nor did I support or oppose any other candidate,” said the former CIA director. “I’ve truly tried to be apolitical, nonpolitical,” Petraeus added.

MATTIS MEMES: In honor of today’s planned nomination of Mattis for defense secretary, check out the best (printable) memes would could find of the legendary general here.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Frank Kendall on the NDAA and the End of AT&L

L.A. Times: Iran says it won’t walk away from the nuclear deal that Trump has threatened to ‘dismantle’

Reuters: Netanyahu to discuss ‘bad’ Iran deal with Trump, Kerry stresses settlements

USNI News: Trump Showing Signs of Changing U.S. Security Relationships in Asia

Defense News: A Speedy Confirmation for Mattis as US Defense Secretary? Here’s How Congress Could Do It

Military.com: Despite Reputation, Mattis Tries to Avoid Fights: Neller

Defense News: Graham: Defense Hike Under Trump ‘Harder Than It Looks’

Military.com: Panel Urges Better Cybersecurity to President-elect Trump

Defense One: Littoral Combat Ship, at a Crossroads

UPI: Japan receives its first F-35 joint strike fighter

Breaking Defense: 1st-Ever Electronic Warfare Strategy Headed For SecDef’s Desk

Defense News: Air Force Retains Requirement to Carry 9 Troops in Draft RFP for Huey Replacement

Associated Press: No more room for the dead as Syria’s Aleppo is crushed

Military Times: Former JCS chairman on his next mission: USA Basketball

Marine Corps Times: The Marine Corps desperately needs people to fill its most high-profile assignments

Calendar

MONDAY | DECEMBER 5

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Korean and American officials talk about what the relationship between the two countries will look like in the next administration. csis.org

10:15 a.m. 701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work makes remarks at the Future Strategy Forum 2016 at 10:15 a.m., at the Navy Memorial, Arleigh Burke Theater.

2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, speaks about investing in the future of U.S. defense during a time of transition. brookings.edu

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 6

7:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. Defense One hosts an event on what helicopters will look like in 2030. defenseone.com

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. The Senate Armed Services Committee receives testimony from a panel of think tank experts about emerging U.S. defense challenges and worldwide threats. armed-services.senate.gov

9:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The architect of the CIA’s enhanced interrogation programs will talk about his interrogations of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. aei.org

2 p.m. The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific holds a hearing on the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia. foreignaffairs.house.gov

2:30 p.m. Dirksen 419. Think tank analysts testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about defeating Iranian proxies. foreign.senate.gov

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 7

8:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The U.S. Naval Institute hosts its 2016 Defense Forum, including sessions with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller, Rep. Randy Forbes, and Rep. Ryan Zinke. usni.org

9:15 a.m. Livestream. The Council on Foreign Relations hosts a series of three talks about how engaging women can help counter violent extremism. cfr.org

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Rep. Michael McCaul keynotes the Heritage Foundation’s annual state of homeland security address. heritage.org

2 p.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee holds a hearing on the California National Guard bonus repayment issue. armedservices.house.gov

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 8

9 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Navy officials and experts testify about oversight of the littoral combat ship program. armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 419. State Department officials testify about challenges facing the department and USAID under the next administration. foreign.senate.gov

10:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A panel talks about the future of the all-volunteer force. brookings.edu

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts a panel discussion on how Trump’s administration should improve America’s nuclear weapons and missile defense policy. heritage.org

12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Cato Institute hosts an event looking at how to convince China to work with the U.S. to coerce North Korea to halt its nuclear weapons program. cato.org

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 9

7:30 a.m. 300 First St. SE. Gen. Jay Raymond, the commander of Air Force Space Command, speaks at a breakfast event. mitchellaerospacepower.org

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Officials from the Army, Marine Corps and special operations communities talk about what requirements each service is looking for in future vertical lift capabilities. csis.org

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Mont., and former Navy SEAL, discusses his new book, “American Commander.” heritage.org

MONDAY | DECEMBER 12

10 a.m. 25 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A panel talks about what the U.S. surveillance policy should be in 2017 and beyond. cnas.org

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