CHAOS REIGNS: Defense Secretary Jim “Chaos” Mattis begins his week with a lot of balls in the air, including traveling to Japan and South Korea while also managing the blowback from President Trump’s travel ban against seven majority-Muslim countries (Iraq, Iran, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Syria). But it is the inclusion of Iraq, America’s most important ally in the fight against the Islamic State, that has the potential to become the biggest headache. Word just came in this morning that the Iraqi parliament has approved a reciprocal ban against Americans traveling to Iraq, but more details weren’t available. The barring of Iraqis from traveling to the U.S. is seen as a slap in the face to the country that is doing the most dangerous, dirty fighting on the ground and taking heavy casualties in what one U.S. commander called “the hardest door-to-door fighting the world has seen in recent history.”
PLIGHT OF INTERPRETERS: Many are calling for the president to modify his order to make exceptions for people such as the brave Iraqis who risked their lives serving side-by-side with U.S. troops as interpreters and advisers. Rep. Seth Moulton, a former Marine officer who worked to get his interpreter asylum in the U.S., lashed out in an appearance on ABC. “You know, I worked for General Mattis. I know him. There is no way in hell that he is supportive of this. He relied on translators for his life, just like I did. He understands what it means to put your life in the hands of an Iraqi or an Afghan. And he also knows that implicit in that is that they put their lives in our hands, as well. And now we’re abandoning them.” Moulton questioned whether Mattis had been consulted about the ban.
CHANNELING PETRAEUS: Both former Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Sen. John McCain said they they discussed their concerns with former top Iraq and Afghanistan Commander retired Gen. David Petraeus. “I know that former senior commanders in Iraq and Afghanistan are very concerned about this order and what impact it will have on those that helped … who were promised safe haven in the United States and now may not get it,” Gates said on ABC. Over on CBS, McCain echoed the criticism of the blanket approach that did not seem well-thought out or carefully implemented. “What about the Iraqi pilots that are training right now in Tucson, Arizona, learning to fly the F-16? And there will be more coming in,” asked McCain.
PROPAGANDA COUP: More broadly, many critics in Trump’s own party were worried the ban, which is seen as aimed at Muslims, will hand ISIS a huge propaganda victory. “Ultimately, we fear this executive order will become a self-inflicted wound in the fight against terrorism,” said McCain and his Senate ally Lindsey Graham. “This executive order sends a signal, intended or not, that America does not want Muslims coming into our country. That is why we fear this executive order may do more to help terrorist recruitment than improve our security.” Late yesterday, Trump issued a statement insisting his action was being mischaracterized. “To be clear, this is not a Muslim ban, as the media is falsely reporting. This is not about religion — this is about terror and keeping our country safe,” the president said. “There are over 40 different countries worldwide that are majority Muslim that are not affected by this order.”
BREAKING THIS MORNING: Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is labeling last night’s attack on a mosque in Quebec City an act of terrorism. Two gunmen opened fired during evening prayers, killing six people and wounding eight others. Two suspects have been apprehended. More than 50 people were reportedly at the Quebec Islamic Cultural Centre at the time of the attack. “We condemn this terrorist attack on Muslims in a center of worship and refuge,” Trudeau said in a statement. “Muslim-Canadians are an important part of our national fabric, and these senseless acts have no place in our communities, cities and country.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Mattis meets with Jordan’s King Abdullah at the Pentagon this morning to discuss the war against the Islamic state and other regional issues, including presumably if there is a way to set up the “safe zones” in Syria that Trump plans to call for. As he promised during the campaign, Trump ordered a “preliminary draft” of a “comprehensive strategy and plans for defeating” the Islamic State on his desk in 30 days, Joel Gehrke writes.
The president stipulated six criteria in a memorandum Saturday calling for the preliminary plan, which will be prepared by Mattis. The outline calls for a suite of policy proposals, ranging from public diplomacy “to isolate and delegitimize ISIS” to identifying the funding for the plan. But the most critical policy requests, in terms of how they relate to Trump’s campaign rhetoric and broader U.S. foreign policy, pertain to the military’s rules of engagement and the list of potential partners in the fight against ISIS.
A CHANGE IN TACTICS? The Obama administration relied almost exclusively on drone strikes to target terrorists in countries where the U.S. had no significant troop presence on the ground. Yemen is a good example, where a week ago U.S. drones picked off some al Qaeda operatives in three separate attacks. But this weekend, U.S. special operations commandos launched a rare ground assault on an al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula hideout, killing 14 AQAP members. The ground operation was far more risky, and resulted in the death of one U.S. commando, the wounding of three others, and the loss of a V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft. But unlike a surgical drone strike, it also resulted in what the Pentagon said was the “capture of information that will likely provide insight into the planning of future terror plots.” A statement called the raid “one in a series of aggressive moves against terrorist planners in Yemen and worldwide.” While planning for the operation predated Trump’s inauguration, it was the new president who gave the “go” order. In a statement, the president said, “My deepest thoughts and humblest prayers are with the family of this fallen service member. I also pray for a quick and complete recovery for the brave service members who sustained injuries.”
NSC RESHUFFLE KERFUFFLE: It didn’t compete with the immigration ban, but Trump’s announcement of a reshuffling of the National Security Council raised plenty of eyebrows that were already on high alert. The order invited Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, Chief of Staff Reince Priebus and counselor Kellyanne Conway into the council, something Sen. John McCain called a “radical departure.” The directive also specified that Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joe Dunford and the director of national intelligence (former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats has been nominated) are not automatically invited to the Principals Committee meetings. The move was widely misreported as demoting the chairman and DNI, but White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus insisted on NBC that was a misreading of the presidential memo, which specifically states both men will attend full NSC meetings because of their statutory responsibility to advise the president, but that attendance at the principal’s meeting would be their call. “They’re invited to be attendees of the Security Council at any time that they want to,” Priebus said. Gates said he has no problem with including Trump’s most trusted advisers, but if the chairman and the DNI were excluded that would be “a big mistake.” What remains to be seen is whether Dunford and Coats will, in fact, have a standing invitation.
A VERY GOOD YEAR: 2016 marked a good year for defense industry with no measurable impact from the president’s tweets taking on the cost of the Pentagon’s top acquisition programs. “I wouldn’t say the Trump effect or Twitter effect has really had any impact on earnings to date,” said Roman Schweizer, an aerospace and defense analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group. Last week, the top five defense companies released their fourth quarter earnings and results for the year.
MATTIS ORDERS AIRCRAFT STUDIES: The Pentagon announced Friday that Mattis has ordered separate reviews of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and the Presidential Aircraft Recapitalization program, which is designed to provide a replacement for Air Force One. Of particular note, Mattis wrote that the review will not only look at reducing cost for the tri-service F-35, but will separately assess whether an advanced version of the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet can provide “a competitive, cost effective, fighter aircraft alternative” to the F-35C, which is the Navy version.
On Air Force One, the memo says that review will look at requirements “with the specific objective of identifying means to substantially reduce the program’s cost while delivering needed capabilities.” That includes “autonomous operations, aircraft power generation, environmental conditioning (cooling), survivability, and military/civilian communications capabilities,” it says.
THE CALL: Trump finally had that phone chat with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and as near as we can tell, two thorny subjects that did not come up were the possibility of lifting sanctions against Moscow and the future of NATO. Instead the talk, which was described as cordial, focused on a joint effort to fight international terrorism. “The positive call was a significant start to improving the relationship between the United States and Russia that is in need of repair,” the White House said. Syria did come up. “The two leaders emphasized that joining efforts in fighting the main threat — international terrorism — is a top priority,” the Kremlin said in a statement.
CAREFUL WHAT YOU SAY, MR. PRESIDENT: We don’t know for sure, but we have to think that Trump has been given some legal advice to hold his tongue about the pending court-martial of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, accused of deserting his post in Afghanistan in 2011. Five Taliban detainees from Guantánamo were handed over in exchange for Bergdahl’s freedom from Taliban captors. The concern is that if Trump were to fire off a tweet, like he did last week calling Chelsea Manning a “traitor,” he could inadvertently “pardon” Bergdahl by exerting what’s known in military law as “unlawful command influence.” Such a statement by the president could result in the charges against Bergdahl being dropped. During the campaign, Trump called Bergdahl a “dirty rotten traitor,” dozens of times. If he does it one more time, Trump could tip the scale of justice.
THE RUNDOWN
Bloomberg: Nuclear Strike Survival for Russia, China Get New U.S. Review
Military Times: Familiar faces in new places: Lawmakers to watch on defense in 2017
Breaking Defense: Bilden Would Be Least Experienced Navy Secretary Since 1980
Military.com: Trump Calls for More Submarines — for Less Money
UPI: Ingalls Shipbuilding begins building new destroyer
CNN: How many fatal terror attacks have refugees carried out in the US? None
Washington Post: Among veterans, raw responses to Trump’s effort to block refugees and others from Muslim countries
Daily Beast: Trump’s Ban Could Kneecap the ISIS War
Defense One: We Conservatives Warned You, Trump Will Not Get Better. Here’s What You Can Do.
Wall Street Journal: Islamic State-Linked Terror Leader Seriously Injured in Philippine Airstrikes
Defense News: As F-35 Comes Online, Norway to Scrap F-16 Fleet
Defense News: Time to Get Serious About T-X
Marine Corps Times: Marines could follow Army and replace M9 Beretta with Sig Sauer P320
Calendar
MONDAY | JANUARY 30
9:15 am Pentagon River Entrance. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis will host an enhanced honor cordon to welcome Jordan’s King Abdullah to the Pentagon. Following the arrival ceremony there will be a bilateral meeting.
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and International Studies releases a new study on international joint acquisition projects. csis.org
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Sen. Chris Murphy delivers the keynote address at an event looking at what implications the Iran nuclear deal has for U.S. interests in the Middle East. atlanticcouncil.org
5:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright talks about America’s place in the world. csis.org
TUESDAY | JANUARY 31
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Think tank experts testify about policy options to confront threats from North Korea. foreign.senate.gov
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1
10:00 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Retired Gen. David Petraeus testifies before the House Armed Services Committee about national security threats and challenges. armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. Two subcommittees of the House Foreign Relations Committee hold a joint hearing on the impact of a free trade agreement between the U.S. and U.K. foreignaffairs.house.gov
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Seth Jones discusses his new book, Waging Insurgent Warfare: Lessons from the Vietcong to the Islamic State. heritage.org
3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Two panels discuss the future of nuclear deterrence and alliances. csis.org
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3
2:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Retired Gen. David Petraeus talks about the unsung heroes of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. aei.org
