INTEL WARS: President-elect Trump remains highly skeptical of the assessment of the U.S. intelligence community about the extent and intent of Russian cyber interference into the presidential elections. As is the new normal, all we have to go on is Trump’s latest tweet in which he seemed to be mocking the conclusions of America’s top spymasters. “The ‘Intelligence’ briefing on so-called ‘Russian hacking’ was delayed until Friday, perhaps more time needed to build a case. Very strange!” Trump tweeted yesterday. Note the president-elect put intelligence in quotes, and referred to “so-called” Russian hacking.
The two sides can’t even agree on when Trump was scheduled to get a formal briefing on the conclusions. While the president-elect implied the briefers were stalling for time, officials speaking on background insisted the plan all along was for President Obama to be briefed on the report tomorrow, and Trump on Friday. The briefers are expected to include FBI Director James Comey and James Clapper, the director of national intelligence.
On the PBS newshour last night, CIA Director John Brennan said he won’t disclose the content of the report before the incoming and outgoing presidents are briefed, but indicated it will support last month’s public statement that there is “clear evidence” the Russians were interfering in the election. “It will be provided to the president and to others, as appropriate,” Brennan said. “But it will address what Russia was doing, how it was doing it, and how we know that.” Brennan suggested skeptics hold their fire until they see the report, and argued the U.S is now the best in the world at intelligence after the lessons learned from the flawed assessments about Iraqi WMDs in 2003.
Count among those skeptics House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes, who told our David M. Drucker that he’s seen no evidence Russia tried to swing the 2016 election to Trump. The California Republican is the top congressman in charge of overseeing and funding U.S. intelligence agencies and activities, and he has access to sensitive material. In a wide-ranging interview Monday with the Washington Examiner’s weekly podcast “Examining Politics,” to be broadcast Thursday, Nunes tells Drucker, “There’s no proof that we have from intelligence sources that I’ve seen that show that the Russians were directly trying to help Trump.”
WikiLeaks continues to deny that Russia was the source of emails from Hillary Clinton’s campaign Chairman John Podesta, tweeting “To be clear, our statements about our US election publications are only: 1) Our publications are accurate. 2) Our source is not a state.” Asked about that last night on PBS, Brennan said of WikiLeaks’ founder Julian Assange, “He’s not exactly a bastion of truth and integrity.
BLOWBACK? Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer suggested that Trump knocks heads with the intelligence community at his own peril. “Let me tell you: You take on the intelligence community — they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you,” Schumer said last night on MSNBC.
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.
Want to learn more about Daily on Defense? See our introductory video here.
STARTING LINEUP: The Democrats and Republicans announced their committee assignments for the 115th Congress on Tuesday and we’ll see four new faces on the Senate Armed Services Committee: Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Sasse, by the way, was a loud anti-Trump voice during the campaign, which could make things interesting on the panel.
Retired Gen. James Mattis began making the rounds on Capitol Hill Tuesday ahead of his confirmation hearing to serve as the next defense secretary. He met privately with Senate Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Sen. Jack Reed, whose office said the committee is planning a hearing next week on civilian control of the military and future impacts of changing the law to allow Mattis to serve again so soon after being in uniform. He also met with Sen. Joni Ernst, who said she spoke with him about a range of issues, including military sexual assault.
Mattis is expected to meet with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, another committee member, today. Gillibrand has praised Mattis, but said she does not support his the waiver required for his nomination because he has not been out of uniform long enough under current law.
HOW STRONG IS OUR MISSILE SHIELD: North Korea’s claim to be in the final stages of developing a long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the United States has renewed questions about the capability of America’s ground-based missile defenses, a system of interceptor missiles bases in Alaska and California. If Kim Jong Un sent a missile our way, could we shoot it down? The record of intercept tests is spotty, but the last one in 2014 was a success. The Pentagon yesterday wouldn’t say if it could shoot down an incoming warhead, but spokesman Peter Cook expressed confidence the U.S could protect itself with its multi-layered missile defenses.
At the White House, spokesman Josh Earnest downplayed the threat. “The intelligence community has previously said that the United States has not seen North Korea test or demonstrate the ability to miniaturize a nuclear weapon and put it on an ICBM. I’m not aware that that assessment has changed.”
HACK REAX: A 2015 Chinese-backed cyberattack on the Office of Personnel Management that exposed millions of personal records was “materially different” than the Russian-backed cyberattacks on Democrats during the election cycle, which is why the White House cracked down harder on the latter breach, Earnest said Tuesday, Sarah Westwood writes. “What we’ve seen is that these are two cyber incidents that are malicious in nature but materially different,” Earnest said, defending the administration’s decision to issue sanctions in response to the Russian hack but not the Chinese hack.
“I’m just saying that it’s different than seeking to interfere in the conduct of a U.S. national election,” Earnest added.
NO, MR. PRESIDENT-ELECT, PART I: After Trump called for “no further releases from Gitmo” on Twitter Tuesday, the Pentagon and the White House said “no thanks.” The Pentagon’s Cook: “As we have discussed previously here, we are going to carry out the appropriate policies as set forth by the commander in chief with regard to Guantánamo Bay, and the secretary of defense will carry out his unique responsibilities with regard to the review of people who have been previously determined to be eligible to release.”
And at the White House, Earnest told reporters to expect additional transfers. “[Trump] will have an opportunity to implement the policy that he believes is most effective when he takes office on Jan. 20,” he said.
NO, MR. PRESIDENT-ELECT, PART II: Trump’s belief that China won’t help restrain North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is incorrect, according to the State Department, Joel Gehrke writes. “We would not agree with that assessment,” State Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters Tuesday.
Kirby said China has committed to implementing economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council targeting the North Korean coal industry. “Chinese officials have made clear that they intend to implement the resolution and we’re engaged [in] an ongoing dialogue with them to that end as well as our allies and our partners on how to best curtail the DPRK’s pursuit of nuclear ballistic missile and proliferation programs,” Kirby said.
COMINGS AND GOINGS: Leo MacKay Jr., a senior vice president at Lockheed Martin, met with the president-elect for about 20 minutes Tuesday afternoon in Trump Tower. MacKay also previously served as the deputy secretary at the Veterans Affairs Department.
Asked by the pool reporter if he was interested in the top job at the VA, MacKay hedged. “We’ll see. Things are progressing, we’ll keep having a conversation.” The VA secretary is one of only two Cabinet positions still open in Trump’s administration.
NEW YEAR, SAME STORY: If anyone thought 2017 would bring an end to Trump’s online take down of the F-35, you were wrong. Trump told supporters at a New Year’s Eve bash that the “numbers are crazy,” including a $1.5 trillion contract for the Joint Strike Fighter. But Richard Aboulafia, the vice president of analysis at Teal Group, said that number was “created out of nowhere.” “You can get to whatever you like if you include every ounce of gas you’re going to put in the plane,” Aboulafia said. “Coming up with random headlines doesn’t serve anybody’s purpose.” That number has been cited before, and refers not to the contract, but to the total lifecycle cost of the fleet, to include maintenance. It’s like including oil changes, gas and repairs in the sticker price for a new car. The Pentagon’s most recent estimate for the total cost is just over $1 trillion.
CALIFORNIA GUARD RELIEF: The Pentagon has completed its review of 17,500 California National Guard troops who were improperly given bonuses for recruitment, retention or education benefits. The vast majority of troops will get a notice that they are no longer on the hook for repaying the money. Of the 1,400 who already paid back the money, about half will get full refunds. Some number of troops, estimated at several hundred, will still have to pay, either because they were involved in fraud or simply didn’t fulfill their commitments. The Pentagon insists its resolution of the cases by July 1 is consistent with language in the recent National Defense Authorization Act, and is fair to the troops.
COOK TIMER: As we prepare to retire the Cook Timer, lame duck Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook arrived for his 11:30 a.m. briefing yesterday at 11:37, one of his best on-time performances to date. Cook said it was one of his new year’s resolutions to be more punctual. So maybe he did notice our Cook Timer after all. He gets another chance tomorrow, when he’s expected to hold another briefing.
THE RUNDOWN
DoD Buzz: Mattis Backs F-35 Stealth Fighter Criticized by Trump
Breaking Defense: 2017 Forecast: What Does Trump Want The Army To Do? ISIS, Russia, Or China?
Military.com: China Confirms Its Carrier Held Drills in South China Sea
UPI: Russia to continue Admiral Makarov trials in 2017
Reuters: Trump recognizes ‘urgency’ of North Korea nuclear threat: South Korea
Wall Street Journal: NATO’s Jittery Baltic Members Move to Beef Up Own Defense
Marine Corps Times: First female infantry Marines joining battalion on Thursday
UPI: U.S. Navy’s future USS Rafael Peralta completes acceptance trials
Associated Press: Silenced by IS, displaced Iraqis relish return to phones
War on the Rocks: The strategic logic of the New Year’s Eve attack in Istanbul
CNN: Gunman identified in Istanbul nightclub attack, Turkish authorities say
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 4
10 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Army Undersecretary Patrick Murphy and personal financial guru Suze Orman announce a partnership to help soldiers and their families take charge of their personal finances. Live streamed at this link.
11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Air Force Col. John Dorrian, spokesman, Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve, briefs live from Baghdad to provide an update on anti-ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria. Live streamed at www.defense.gov.
THURSDAY | JANUARY 5
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and head of U.S. Cyber Command Adm. Michael Rogers testify about foreign cyber threats to the United States. armed-services.senate.gov
2 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence holds a closed briefing. intelligence.senate.gov
3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of experts talks about the future of the Pakistani Taliban. wilsoncenter.org
FRIDAY | JANUARY 6
7 a.m. 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, Va. Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James speaks at an Air Force Association breakfast event. afa.org
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 11
Time TBA: New York City. President-elect Trump conducts his first general topic news conference.
9:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Officials from the Marine Corps discuss how science fiction has impacted the service’s ability to develop new technology. atlanticcouncil.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. John Sopko, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, speaks about challenges for the next president and new lawmakers. csis.org
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson speaks at the Woodrow Wilson Center. wilsoncenter.org
10:30 a.m. 850 10th St. NW. Vice Adm. Joseph Rixey, the director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, delivers a keynote on reforming the security cooperation enterprise. ndia.org
3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council releases a paper titled, “A Nonstate Strategy for Saving Cyberspace.” atlanticcouncil.org
