Daily on Defense — July 21, 2016 — Trump’s NATO bombshell

TERROR TALK AT THE RNC: While the fireworks last night centered on Ted Cruz’s non-endorsement of Donald Trump, and the boos that ensued, the third day of the Republican National Convention had a distinct national security flavor, as several prime time speeches described Trump as a leader who would directly confront the threats of terrorism. Trump will accept the nomination tonight.

But the biggest bombshell came off stage in an interview Trump gave to the New York Times in which he seemed to be saying he wouldn’t feel bound by NATO’s bedrock Article 5, which states an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all. He indicated the U.S. commitment to defend any NATO member from attack would not be automatic. When asked if the U.S. would come to the defense of Baltic states — the NATO members most worried about an attack from Russia — Trump said he would decide only after reviewing whether those nations “have fulfilled their obligations to us.” He added, “If they fulfill their obligations to us, the answer is yes.”

The Clinton camp fired back early this morning, saying Ronald Reagan and Harry Truman “would be ashamed.”

“Trump has apparently decided that America lacks the moral authority to advance our interests and values around the world,” senior policy adviser Jake Sullivan said. “He has adopted the logic and positions of China, Russia, and Iran. And there will be plenty of time in the days ahead to address his strategy to strengthen our coalition against ISIS, which apparently can be summed up in one word, ‘meetings.’”

CHRISTIE PREDICTS MORE GROUND TROOPS: In an interview yesterday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said he thinks once Trump is in office and has access to classified briefings, he would do an about-face on his pledge to have very few troops on the ground in the fight against the Islamic State. “My experience with Donald has been, when you sit and you talk with him dispassionately about facts, he listens, he absorbs it, and then it alters his view on particular topics,” Christie told CNN.

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DAY TWO OF ANTI-ISIS SUMMIT: The gathering of defense and foreign ministers in the U.S.-led counter-Islamic State coalition moves from Joint Base Andrews to the State Department today, where the focus will be on reconstruction after the Islamic State is defeated.  After yesterday’s session, Defense Secretary Ash Carter told reporters the liberation of Mosul is on schedule but still months away, but he said the ministers’ biggest concern is that “the stabilization and governance efforts will lag behind the military campaign.” Carter’s remarks at today’s joint session will be streamed live at 10:45 a.m. at www.defense.gov.

DEAL OR NO DEAL: Carter and Secretary of State John Kerry don’t seem to be on the same page regarding a possible deal with Russia to fight a common enemy in Syria, the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. Kerry says he made progress on the possible arrangement with Moscow to share intelligence and coordinate airstrikes, while Carter says “It’s not in the cards at the moment.” It an open secret the Pentagon thinks the diplomatic initiative is a bad idea.

MILITARY DEFEAT NOT ENOUGH: Kerry told reporters on Wednesday that taking land from the Islamic State through military victories will not be enough to prevent the group from planning and inspiring terrorist attacks around the world, like last week’s in Nice, France, that killed more than 80 people. “Nobody should pretend that that disappears the moment Daesh is defeated within Iraq or defeated within Mosul,” Kerry said, according to a report from Pete Kasperowicz.

Kerry also said that power is set to return to Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, which has been running on generators since last week’s attempted coup. Generators kicked in “immediately” and there has been no interruption to the mission at the base, which acts as a staging group for the coalition’s fight against the Islamic State.

SANCTIONS SLAPPED ON AQ TERRORISTS: The Treasury Department on Wednesday levied sanctions against three members of Al Qaeda, two of whom are believed to be living in Iran, David Wilkes reports.

RIP REP. MARK TAKAI: The 49-year-old Democrat from Hawaii died on Wednesday after a battle with pancreatic cancer, Cassi Pollock reports. Takei, a lieutenant colonel in the Hawaii Army National Guard who deployed to Iraq, also served on the House Armed Services Committee. The National Guard Association of the United States mourned his death on Twitter, saying that he was a frequent visitor to its D.C. office. “He never failed to leave behind good cheer and Hawaiian macadamia nuts.”

F-35 REVIEWS ARE COMING: The Heritage Foundation is set to release a paper in early August that includes findings from interviews with 31 F-35A pilots who had previously flown other U.S. fighters. As for results, one expert who worked on the paper said the pilots’ views will “challenge public perceptions” about a jet previously criticized for poor performance in dogfights and software shut-downs mid-flight.

MAKE AMERICA FIRST AGAIN: That was the putative theme of day three at the RNC, but much like Days 1 and 2, speeches gravitated to Benghazi and ISIS. In his acceptance speech, VP nominee Mike Pence touted Trump as “a president who will protect this nation, confront radical Islamic terrorism and rid the world of ISIS.” “Donald Trump will lead from strength. Donald Trump will rebuild our military and stand with our allies. Donald Trump will confront radical Islamic terrorism at its source and destroy the enemies of our freedom,” Pence in his prime time address.

Newt Gingrich, who Trump passed over as his running mate, also sounded the theme of war with “radical Islamists,” who he said “are determined to kill us, and are “stronger than we admit,” something he said Trump understands, calling him a “leader who will be truthful with the American people about the realities we face.”

CALL IN THE FIRING SQUAD: Al Baldasaro, a retired Marine and adviser to Trump on veterans issues, said Clinton is the “Jane Fonda of the Vietnam” for what he considers traitorous actions during the Benghazi attack. “This whole thing disgusts me. Hillary Clinton should be put in the firing line and shot for treason,” he said. The Secret Service is now investigating if the fiery rhetoric amounts to a threat against a presidential candidate.

Meanwhile Veterans advocates called on the Trump campaign to condemn the comment, and Jonathan Murray, a Marine Corps veteran, wrote on Twitter that Baldasaro is just “a man who has lost his way. He’s forgotten why he served, & what he was serving. More than angry, I feel sad for him.” The Trump campaign eventually issued short statement saying “Mr. Trump and the campaign do not agree” that Clinton should be executed for treason.

ADVICE FROM THE GRAY BEARDS: Some old foreign policy hands were dishing out advice for Trump yesterday, hoping he will listen. Joel Gehrke has the story from Cleveland. “The panelists offered a reminder that Reagan built a powerful military but rarely deployed it; they defended foreign aid, at length; and they gave political tips for how to do this while maintaining the votes of his core supporters, who might have a ‘fear of the unknown’ or doubt the value of spending money overseas when there is trouble at home. All in all, it seemed like a blueprint for sanding the rough edges off a candidate who has rattled establishment national security thinkers around the world.”

“If Mr. Trump doesn’t already, I would encourage him to read the writings of Teddy Roosevelt, carry a big stick — but speak softly,” retired Marine Commandant Gen. James Conway said during a Global Oval panel with K.T. MacFarland and Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn.

DEM VEEP SPECULATION: Clinton is expected to reveal her pick for vice president on Friday ahead of next week’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest offered up Sen. Tim Kaine as a choice President Obama would support during Wednesday’s press briefing, saying that Obama considered the Virginia Democrat “one of his own.” Kaine serves on the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees and has been a vocal supporter of passing an Islamic State-specific authorization for the use of military force.

WELCOME BACK: For the first time in 30 years, a U.S. warship will be making a port call in New Zealand. Under New Zealand law the prime minister can grant approval only if satisfied “that the warships will not be carrying any nuclear explosive device upon their entry into the internal waters of New Zealand.” After meeting with Vice President Joe Biden, Prime Minister John Key said if the U.S. ship meets those requirements it will be welcome at the Royal New Zealand Navy’s 75th anniversary in November.

YOU SANK MY BATTLESHIP: Watch the decommissioned frigate Thach take live fire from allied forces during the Rim of the Pacific military exercise. The frigate put up a fight and took fire for 12 hours before succumbing to a large explosion and sinking to the bottom of the sea north of Hawaii. FULL DISCLOSURE: You don’t actually see it sink in the video, but you see it take a beating.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Lockheed’s Cash Flow Hurt by Stalled F-35 Negotiations

UPI: Lockheed gets $241 million for F-35 electronic components

Washington Post: How much does the Pentagon’s secretive bomber really cost? (And should you be allowed to know?)

Military Times: GOP platform calls for better military pay, less ‘social experimentation’

Defense News: Analysts Predict Rifts in US-Turkey Relationship

Daily Beast: Turkey Denies Its Warships Vanished

Defense One: Pentagon Wants to Automate Social-Media Checks on Clearance Holders

Stars and Stripes: Child beheading in Syria triggers backlash against US-supported rebel group

Military.com: UN: ISIS Fighters Face Possible Defeat in Libya

Wall Street Journal: Three French Special Forces Soldiers Killed in Helicopter Crash in Libya

Reuters: Mosul assault in focus two years after Islamic State takeover

USNI News: Analysis: What’s Next for Manila Following South China Sea Ruling?

Navy Times: Top U.S. admiral says China exchanges conditional on safety

UPI: Boeing to produce four P-8A Poseidons for Australia

ABC News: Police Shootings Touch Nerve Among Military Veterans

Task and Purpose: This Proposed Rule Could Complicate Infertility Treatment For Veterans

Calendar

THURSDAY | JULY 21

9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Wilson Center will host a panel discussion on post-ISIS politics, deal-making, and the struggle for Iraq’s future. wilsoncenter.org

FRIDAY | JULY 22

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute host Rear Adm. Mathias Winter, chief of naval research, to discuss naval innovation and capabilities. usni.org

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS hosts a panel to discuss Russia’s undersea warfare in Northern Europe. csis.org

TUESDAY | JULY 26

8:30 a.m. The Watergate Hotel. Defense One hosts a conversation with Air Force Secretary Deborah James on the readiness crisis. defenseone.com

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Brookings Institution hosts a discussion on the U.S.-China-Russia trilateral relationship and historical dynamics. brookings.edu

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS will host a conversation on how the 2016 presidential election will affect the future of U.S. military forces. csis.org

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