Daily on Defense — Oct. 26, 2016 — Around the world with Clapper

North Korean Nukes: “I think the notion of getting the North Koreans to denuclearize is probably a lost cause. They are not going to do that. That is their ticket to survival. … They are under siege and they are very paranoid. So the notion of giving up their nuclear capability, whatever it is, is a nonstarter with them. The best we could probably hope for is some sort of a cap. But they’re not going to do that just because we ask them.”

Can North Korea hit the U.S. with a nuke? “Neither they nor we know whether their missile systems will work, but we have to make the worst-case assumption here. We ascribe to them the capability to launch a missile that would have a weapon on it that potentially could reach parts of the United States, certainly including Alaska and Hawaii.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin: “It’s extremely important to him that Russia be treated and respected as a global power on a par with the United States. And I think that has a lot to do with impelling his behavior.”

Russians hacking Democrats: “We believe the direction for this was coming from the highest levels of the Russian government. … There’s a history here for the Soviet Union, Russia, now interfering in elections, both theirs and other people’s. And there’s a history of this where they’ve attempted to influence the outcome of our elections before.”

Trump’s scoffing at U.S. intelligence: “Policymakers have the option of listening to intelligence or not. That’s up to them.”

Russia’s possible reaction to a no-fly zone over Syria: “I do take seriously the very sophisticated air-defense system and air-defense coverage that the Russians have. And I think, I wouldn’t put it past them to shoot down an American aircraft if felt that was threatening to their forces on the ground. … The system they have there is a very advanced air-defense system. It’s very capable. And I don’t think they’d do it and deploy it unless they had some intent to use it.”

Last week’s cyberattack on the Internet of Things: “Well, the investigation is still going on. There’s a lot of data to be gathered here. That appears to be preliminarily the case. [When asked if it was a non-state actor] Yes, but I wouldn’t want to be conclusively definitive about that yet. That’s an early call.”

China: “The Chinese feel very strongly about their rectitude, about their exorbitant claims of the South China Sea, that — all the maritime area contained within the so-called nine-dash line. The tribunal decision notwithstanding, they are very committed to their claims in the South China Sea.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping: “The thing that impels the leadership in China is, first and foremost, I believe, is domestic stability … and so he’s embarked on a reform program to try to eliminate corruption, and I think is bent on keeping a control by the party apparatus — as well, which I find both disturbing and also impressive, is an extensive military modernization program that the Chinese have mounted across many fronts.”

The Middle East: “A mess. It makes your head hurt. It really does. It’s an extremely complex situation there. Tom Friedman, writes for The New York Times, about three or four years ago, I thought he had a great line on one of the talk shows on, where [he said the] ‘Mideast is too important to ignore and too expensive to fix.’ ”

Liberation of Mosul, Iraq: “Probably [will take] a long time. I’ll tell you the greater concern I would have is what happens after Mosul is declared recaptured … what will happen in terms of holding it, and importantly, what about governance in Mosul depending — and then recovery, depending on how much destruction occurs in a — you know, a highly urbanized situation.”

Defeating the Islamic State: “It is probably not going to go away, and it’ll morph into something else or other similar extremist groups will be spawned. And I believe we’re going to be in the business of suppressing these extremist movements for a long time to come.”

Turkey: “The Turks are concerned about ISIL, but the primary concern they have, of course, is a ‘united Kurdish nation’ — if I could use a term with air quotes — across their southern border. So, they are most concerned about the Kurds. That’s their primary motivation.”

Will Syrian President Bashar Assad be in power when Obama leaves? “Well, that’s a fair guess, yeah.”

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte: “President Duterte has a point of view, I think, conditioned quite a bit by his own life and his apparent resentment of the United States and its relationship with the Philippines. … I think he is definitely playing to the domestic audience, and I think he reflects his background as a city mayor.”

Climate change a threat to national security? “It certainly is. We’re seeing this already, the effects of climate on national security issues with things like availability of water, or food, or energy. And this increasingly, I believe, is going to play a big part in our national security landscape in the future.”

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.

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GUARDED OPTIMISM: There is so much outrage and indignation in Congress and veteran’s groups over the revelations about Pentagon’s efforts over the last few years to force veterans of the California National Guard to give back the enlistment bonuses they accepted in good faith that it seems inevitable that something will be done about it. You might think that with a situation this manifestly unjust that the fix would be fairly simply and quickly implemented. I explain here why that’s not the way Washington works.

Meanwhile, the finger-pointing and blame-shifting is in high gear. The Pentagon is out with new numbers insisting the number of soldiers affected is roughly 6,500, not 10,000 as first reported.  It says the most recent audit shows 1,100 got bonuses for which they were ineligible. Another 5,400 soldiers had erroneous paperwork that may have affected their eligibility. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said yesterday House lawmakers knew nothing about the clawback scheme, despite the fact a progress report on the program was included in a 2013 Report to Congress from the DoD Inspector General. California Democrat Mark Takano was well aware of a proposal to halt the program, which he claims died because it would have violated budget caps.

House and Senate leaders are calling on the Pentagon to “cease and desist” immediately, and the White House says the Pentagon needs to act quickly. Speaking in Paris yesterday, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said while the issue “has got its complexities to it,” the Pentagon is “going to look into it, and resolve it.” Republicans on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee are asking the California National Guard for all documents related to the illegal bonuses to ensure those responsible are held accountable.

SPLIT THE BABY: The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that the Pentagon’s considering splitting its $14 billion order for the next two batches of F-35 joint strike fighters, after failing to reach an acceptable deal with Lockheed Martin. The Air Force is trying to get the price-per-copy down to about $80 million, and is getting ready to order 160 of the stealthy jets.

LOCKHEED 3Q EARNINGS: Meanwhile Lockheed Martin reported third quarter 2016 results, posting net sales of $11.6 billion, up from $10.1 billion a year ago. Net earnings were $1.1 billion, or $3.61 per share, which is up from $756 million, or $2.42 per share, this time last year. Cash from operations of was $1.3 billion, down from $1.5 billion in the third quarter of 2015. Besides the F-35, Lockheed is also the prime contractor for the Freedom-class littoral combat ships.

HOW NORTHROP SEALED THE B-21 DEAL: Bloomberg reported on a GAO report that basically explains how Northrop Grumman Corp. put together its winning bid to develop and build the U.S. Air Force’s new $80 billion B-21 bomber. By underbidding competitors Boeing and Lockheed Martin on the initial production, Northrop essentially inoculated itself from claims that the Air Force demonstrated prejudice in calculating costs, according to the GAO.

CARTER IN BRUSSELS: Carter wraps up his counter-Islamic State tour in Brussels today where he meets with fellow defense ministers at NATO headquarters. As Islamic State fighters prepare for the main thrust of the Iraqi operation to liberate Mosul with booby-traps and suicide trucks, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, briefs reporters at the Pentagon live from Baghdad at 11 a.m. Live streamed at www.defense.gov.

DISCRIMINATION DILEMMA: Forty-two senators penned a letter to the top lawmakers on the armed services committees asking them to not include in the final National Defense Authorization Act a section that they say allows discrimination in hiring practices. The amendment, introduced by Rep. Steve Russell, is in the House bill and would allow religiously-affiliated companies that receive federal money to fire women for being pregnant outside of marriage and ask applicants about their religion. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who led the letter effort, said the letter shows how strongly the vast majority of the Democratic caucus feels, but would not say that the senators would filibuster the bill if it’s in the final version.

ANOTHER RANSOM PROBLEM: A U.S. permanent resident who has been imprisoned in Iran for more than a year says Tehran is demanding a ransom in exchange for his release, Susan Crabtree writes. Nizar Zakka, a Lebanese citizen and permanent resident of the United States, said through his attorney Tuesday that Iranian officials in April told him it would take as much as $2 billion to ensure his release from captivity. In September, Iranian officials lowered that amount to $4 million, and told him that he was spared the death penalty but would remain in prison for 10 years until the payments is made. State Department spokesman John Kirby said that’s a non-starter. “I can’t speak to the motivation behind these detentions, but if there’s a perception out there, if one of the motivations were to secure ransom, it is a false perception — it is wrong. What I can say again is that we do not pay ransom. We don’t pay ransom. We didn’t then, we don’t now. We’re not going to change that policy going forward.”

TRUMP’S MIND IS MADE UP: House Homeland Security Chairman Michael McCaul claimed on Tuesday that he recently told Donald Trump that Russia is trying to influence the U.S. presidential election, but the Republican nominee declined to believe him, Gabby Morrongiello writes. “I think he has in his mind that there’s not the proof,” McCaul said at an event hosted by the Texas Tribune, according to Politico. “Now he hasn’t had the briefing I had, but I made it clear that in my judgment it was a nation-state.” See DNI James Clapper’s take above.

ENDORSED “IN CONCEPT” Trump says he has won the endorsement of the U.S. military “conceptually.” That goes for law enforcement, too. In an interview with a Florida TV station, Trump said. “I’ve been endorsed by virtually every police department and police group. And I’ve been endorsed largely, at least conceptually, by the military. We’ve had tremendous veteran endorsements because the veterans have been treated so unfairly.”

HE’S WITH HER: Colin Powell said Tuesday he plans to cast his ballot for Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton on Nov. 8, after writing in an email leaked last month, “I would rather not have to vote for her,” Gabby Morrongiello writes. The former secretary of state told attendees at a business luncheon that Clinton would serve with distinction and said her experience as his successor at the State Department and a senator from New York make her qualified to be commander in chief. Lest you forget, in private messages posted by DCLeaks last month, Powell wrote an email to Democratic donor Jeffrey Leeds in which he described Clinton as “a 70-year person with a long track record, unbridled ambition, greedy, not transformational, with a husband still dicking bimbos at home.”

MARINE F/A-18 CRASH: A Marine Corps pilot ejected safely when his F/A-18C Hornet crashed last night as he was landing at Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center at Twentynine Palms, California. Despite ejecting after the plane touched down, a somewhat dangerous maneuver,  the pilot is reported to be fine. There will be an investigation.

THE RUNDOWN

UPI: Boeing gets max $196 million F/A-18 spares contract

Breaking Defense: Marines Seek To Outnumber Enemies With Robots

New York Times: The Pentagon’s ‘Terminator Conundrum’: Robots That Could Kill on Their Own

USNI News: Navy Drafting Unmanned Systems Roadmap To Guide Resources

Reuters: Exclusive: Trump says Clinton policy on Syria would lead to World War Three

Military Times: Commentary: Clinton, Trump have options to break SECDEF glass ceiling

Defense One: Echoes of Future War: How the Fight for Mosul Will Change IED Science

Associated Press: Iraq battles IS in Western town, far from Mosul

Washington Post: With the battle for Mosul underway, U.S. sets sights on ISIS capital of Raqqa

CNN: How ISIS poisoned Iraq’s air

Wall Street Journal: ‘There Are No More Panes of Glass Left in Aleppo’

Reuters: NATO seeks troops to deter Russia on eastern flank

Time: Paying for the Military Like the Ruby Slippers

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 26

9 a.m. 1250 S. Hayes St., Arlington, Va. Gen. Daniel Allyn, the Army vice chief of staff, kicks off day two of the Unmanned System’s Defense conference, which will focus on unmanned systems in the air. thedefenseshow.org

11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, provides an update on operations against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Live streamed at www.defense.gov

12:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The Stimson Center releases its new report, “Military Budgets in India and Pakistan: Trajectories, Priorities, and Risks.” stimson.org

12:30 p.m. 901 17th St. NW. A group of experts talks about the defense relationship between the U.S. and Sweden, especially amid mounting Russian tension. atlanticcouncil.org

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 27

9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A representative from the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs provides keynote remarks at an event looking at the cause of conflict in the Middle East. atlanticcouncil.org

1:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. The Public Affairs Alliance of Iranian Americans released a data-driven assessment of Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal. press.org

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 28

8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Robert Work, the deputy secretary of the defense, and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Paul Selva speak about the third offset strategy. csis.org

MONDAY | OCTOBER 31

1:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of experts discusses the relationship among the U.S., Israel and Iran in the wake of the nuclear deal. wilsoncenter.org

2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Brookings Institution hosts a panel on what nuclear arms choices the next president will face. brookings.edu

TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 1

8:15 a.m. The Brookings Institution hosts its fourth and final podcast recording about preparing for the next president with a look at how the next administration should counter violent extremist. brookings.edu

10 a.m. Pacific. USS Midway Museum, San Diego. Rep. Scott Peters speaks at an event commemorating the beginning of National U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier month. www.aircraftcarrier.com

WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 2

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Rear Adm. Christian Becker, the program executive officer for space systems, talks about the role of space in maritime operations. csis.org

5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Arnold Punaro launches his new book, On War and Politics: The Battlefield Inside Washington’s Beltway. csis.org