AMERICA VOTES: This is it. Barring some low probability high impact event, such as a deadlock in Florida, or an Electoral College tie, by this time tomorrow we should know who will be the nation’s next commander in chief. Hillary Clinton has indicated she’s even more hawkish than President Obama, favoring a safe zone for Syria, and arming rebels while focusing the anti-ISIS effort on finding and killing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Donald Trump has suggested he would renegotiate U.S. alliances, including NATO, to get a better deal for America, while forcing our friends to shoulder more of the burden of their own defense. One expert, writing in Defense One, calls this the most consequential election since a series of German elections in the 1930s that led to Adolf Hitler’s rise to power.
WHAT THE POLLS SAY: The final polls pretty much all show Clinton with a slight lead in the popular vote, and have her well-positioned to win the necessary electoral votes. But Trump also has several paths to 270. The Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project gives Clinton a 90 percent chance of winning. The New York Times model has Clinton with an 84 percent chance of victory. Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com data-crunching site put Clinton’s chances at 71 percent this morning. But consider this: Even while the odds favor Clinton, the New York Times notes her chance of losing is about the same as the probability an NFL kicker misses a 38-yard field goal. We’ve all seen that happen.
STATES TO WATCH: The outcome may be foreshadowed in some crucial East Coast states where the votes will be tallied early. Keep an eye on Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins several of those states, in particular Florida, it could signal an upset in the making. And in Dixville Notch, N.H., the tiny first-in-the-nation town in the U.S. where a handful of voters, eight, cast their votes at midnight on Election Day, Clinton has won.
THE SENATE IN PLAY: Several models predict Democrats will take back the Senate, which would affect the chairmanship of key committees. The New York Times says there’s a 52 percent chance of a Democratic majority, while fivethirtyeight.com basically has the odds about even. Armed Services Chairman Sen. John McCain appears headed for reelection in Arizona, but could find himself in the minority. Other races to watch: Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a big A-10 supporter, is locked in a tough battle for reelection in New Hampshire, and Iraq war veteran Rep. Tammy Duckworth appears poised to unseat incumbent Sen. Mark Kirk in Illinois.
STUCK WITH SEQUESTER: But one thing that likely won’t change: sequestration. The American Enterprise Institute’s Mackenzie Eaglen has an op-ed out today saying that the Budget Control Act is likely to remain the law of the land, even though both candidates have said they’d like to undo it. That’s mainly because, while Congress may see some new faces, the overall inability to review entitlements and come to a grand bargain remains.
“Today’s Congress remains fundamentally unchanged in its views on spending,” Eaglen writes. “The new Congress might move further away from a ‘grand bargain’ should the Democrats take the Senate and Speaker Ryan’s coalition of moderate Republicans shrink after the election, which appears likely. What does this all add up to? The near-future political environment remains unaffected when compared to that of the past three budget deals to modify the Budget Control Act. All the key variables remain where they were.”
Capitol Hill could also see some new faces, including some who once served in the military. Just under 100 veterans are running for congressional seats around the country for the first time, including seven running for the Senate. The one with the best shot to win a place in the upper chamber is Jason Kander, a former Army intelligence officer who is just 1.3 points behind incumbent GOP Sen. Roy Blunt in Missouri.
Here’s our rundown of the other Senate races where vets are on the ballot, as well as a full list of all the veterans trying to join the 115th Congress. And here’s our weekly video briefing where we talk about the transition and the military leadership situation the White House winner will face.
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.
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NOT FEELING THE DRAFT: When lawmakers return to Washington after the election, the leaders of the armed services committees will turn their attention to finalizing the fiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act. One thing that seems to be taken off their to-do list is whether women will have to sign up for the draft. A Capitol Hill aide tells us that the final bill does not include a provision to make women register with the Selective Service, but will ask the Pentagon to study whether the draft is still needed.
WATCH OUT FOR PULSES: Concerns are increasing that U.S. foes will launch an electromagnetic pulse attack on the United States as early as Election Day in a bid by countries such as Russia, Iran, China and North Korea to disrupt the power transition in Washington, Paul Bedard writes. A top expert said the attackers could take advantage of poor protection from an EMP attack and the lack of authority during a transition to send at least 50 million people along the East Coast into the dark with a nuclear blast in the atmosphere that would wipe out the electric grid.
“Enemies planning to attack the United States or its allies could find few better times than the period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, when the nation is transitioning to a new commander in chief and new administration and is most divided politically from top to bottom,” wrote Peter Vincent Pry in The Long Sunday, Election Day 2016-Inauguration Day 2017.
ISIS ARREST: A 20-year-old man from Columbus, Ohio, was arrested on Monday for attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State, according to a Justice Department press release issued Monday evening, Anna Giaritelli writes. Aaron Travis Daniels, who used the aliases Harun Muhammad and Abu Yusef, was taken into custody by FBI and Joint Terrorism Task Force officials before boarding a flight to Houston, Texas, at John Glenn Columbus International Airport. The criminal complaint against Daniels states the suspect had communicated with the overseas terrorist group and committed to carry out jihad in conversations with Abu Isa Al-Amriki, a now-deceased ISIS operative and recruiter.
ALL ACCORDING TO PLAN: The Pentagon says the plan to apply nearly simultaneous pressure on the Islamic State in its two de facto capitals — Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria — is unfolding just as it was envisioned. Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook insists the Mosul assault is an Iraqi plan, and the U.S. is just helping to ensure its success. To that end, Cook says U.S. Apache attack helicopters have joined the battle for Mosul, in what he called a “standoff” role.
But in Syria, the U.S. is calling the shots. “What’s happening in Syria is different than what’s happening in Iraq, because we do not have formal government forces, we do not have a conventional military operating in Syria,” Cook said. “You will not see a mirror image.” The move to isolate Raqqa with Syrian Democratic Forces, a loose coalition of Kurdish, Turkmen, and Arab forces is just beginning.
THE YPG PROBLEM: U.S. officials are working to ease tensions between two U.S. allies it need to oust the Islamic State from its chief stronghold in Syria, Joel Gehrke writes. President Obama has authorized airstrikes against ISIS, while relying on Turkey and other local forces to provide the ground forces that have worked to recapture ISIS-held territory in Syria. That coalition requires long-time enemies to set aside ancient animosities and focus on defeating a common enemy, ISIS. Turkey is particularly worried about U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds, known as the YPG, whom it regards as affiliates of the PKK, a Kurdish group in Turkey that has been warring with the NATO-allied government for years.
“We’re aware of Turkey’s concerns regarding YPG,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters. “We’ve talked at length about how we believe that while the PKK is a foreign terrorist organization, we don’t necessarily draw that same conclusion about the YPG, that they’re a very effective local fighting force in northern Syria.”
MASS GRAVES: The AP reports a mass grave has been discovered outside Mosul. Bulldozers extracted piles of bones and decomposed and decapitated bodies among garbage and clothes.
COOK TIMER: Yesterday’s regular Monday Pentagon briefing, scheduled 1:30 p.m. began at 1:45 p.m. While we keep track of spokesman Peter Cook’s consistently poor on-time performance. most the of the press corps doesn’t seem to care. The standard procedure is for journalists to put up the live feed of the empty briefing room, and then work at their desks while waiting for Cook to show. Then gradually reporters drift in to ask their questions.
THE RUNDOWN
Military Times: Races to watch: Four close congressional contests that could impact troops, vets
Defense News: Pentagon Could Look to Close Bases Without BRAC Authorization
Military Times: After the Islamic State falls: America’s next president will face the war’s toughest decisions
USNI News: BAE Systems Wins $192M Zumwalt Combat System Award
Breaking Defense: F-22, F-35 Outsmart Test Ranges, AWACS
Military.com: Marine Corps F-35 Caught Fire During Training Flight
Task and Purpose: The Story Behind The A-10’s Iconic War Paint
Defense One: The Most Militarily Decisive Use of Autonomy You Won’t See
Army Times: Army Special Forces hit hard with six deaths in three days
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Prepares to Help People Fleeing Mosul
Marine Corps Times: Lawmaker demands investigation after second Marine recruit death at Parris Island
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 9
4:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council hosts an event with industry leaders titled, “Corporate-Venture Investing in Aerospace & Defense.” atlanticcouncil.org
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 10
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Officials speak on a panel on preventing terrorists from getting chemical weapons. csis.org
10:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Think tank experts talk about security and insecurity in the relationship with Iran after the nuclear deal. stimson.org
5:30 pm. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. National Journal’s James Kitfield speaks about his new book, Twilight Warriors: The Soldiers, Spies, and Special Agents Who Are Revolutionizing the American Way of War. csis.org
MONDAY | NOVEMBER 14
1 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of think tank experts undertakes a pathgame where violence breaks out after mobile communications are cut. atlanticcouncil.org
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 15
9:30 a.m. 600 New Hampshire Ave. NW. Adm. Harry Harris, the commander of U.S. Pacific Command, talks about what’s next for his area of responsibility. defenseone.com
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta speaks at a CSIS invitation-only event on a new strategy for countering violent extremism. csis.org
5 p.m. 701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments holds an event talking about the future of amphibious warfare. csbaonline.org
