Daily on Defense — Nov. 30, 2016 — A budget deal, and possible veto

The bill will be filed in the House at noon, meaning we’ll finally get to see the full text of the bill negotiators have been hammering out for months. Among the highlights: three services see a boost to their troop numbers, Cyber Command becomes its own combatant command, troops get a 2.1 percent pay raise, women won’t be required to register for the draft, the Pentagon’s acquisition shop will see a restructure and Afghan interpreters get an additional 1,500 visas to come to the U.S.

What’s missing from the bill? The sage grouse, the controversial Russell Amendment and the 11 extra F-35s in the House version. Our full rundown is here.

CARTER SPOOKED: Hearing rumors that the stop-gap funding measure known as a continuing resolution might be extended through May, Defense Secretary Ash Carter fired off a letter pleading with Congress make any CR as short as possible. “I am particularly troubled by information that Congress may be considering a CR through May,” Carter writes to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan. “A short-term CR is bad enough, but a CR through May means DoD would have to operate under its constraints for two-thirds of the fiscal year. This is unprecedented and unacceptable.” Carter outlined a list of dire consequences that would result from an extended CR.

The message left Hill aides scratching their heads, since the plan is still to pass a CR through March, not May.

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STATE OF THE STATE-STAKES: “Just like old times,” Mitt Romney quipped as he sauntered into the lobby of Trump Tower around 9:30 last night to talk briefly with reporters, but not answer their questions, after dining with President-elect Trump. The two former antagonists sat down at a table at the Jean-Georges, a swanky French restaurant in Manhattan’s Upper West Side. Romney called the dinner conversation “enlightening and interesting and engaging,” but gave no hint if he has the inside track on the premier Cabinet post, secretary of state. No apology either for calling Trump a fraud and a con man during the campaign, but his tone was conciliatory and admiring. “He did something I tried to do and was unsuccessful in,” Romney said. “He won the general election and he continues with a message of inclusion and bringing people together and his vision is something which obviously connected with the American people in a very powerful way.” There is no higher compliment in the Trump world than being called a “winner.”

Earlier in the evening, Trump was asked directly by a CNN reporter who got a reservation at the same restaurant if Romney would be his pick for secretary of state. The president-elect replied “We’re going to see what happens.” Transition aides tell the AP a decision on secretary of state is likely to be at least a few days away.

Sen. Bob Corker, meanwhile, suggested Tuesday that Trump is likely in the final stages of his search for a secretary of state, a process that has played out in an unusually visible manner as aides have publicly aired reservations about particular contenders. “I think he’ll make the decision when he’s comfortable,” Corker told reporters in the lobby of Trump Tower as he left his meeting with the president-elect. “My sense is he’s narrowed it down to a very small group of people.”

Also, a senior Trump transition official cautioned against assuming retired Gen. David Petraeus has the inside track on secretary of state, Gabby Morrongiello writes. “I think that might be a little bit premature,” Jason Miller said on Fox News Radio’s “Kilmeade and Friends.”

PAVING THE WAY FOR MATTIS: If Trump taps retired Gen. James “Mad Dog” Mattis as defense secretary, some speculate there would be little problem getting congressional approval to waive the requirement that the Pentagon chief be out of uniform for seven years. Yesterday, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain said if it comes that that, he’ll write the bill himself to ensure Mattis can accept the post, if offered.

MORE PIECES ADDED TO THE CABINET: It’s expected that this morning’s announcements will fill out Trump’s economic team, with former Goldman Sachs executive Steven Mnuchin, who ran Trump’s finance operations during the campaign nominated to be treasury secretary, and billionaire investor Wilbur Ross, known as the “king of bankruptcy” for investing in distressed industries, expected to be named commerce secretary.

DEFENSE TRANSITION TEAM GROWS: President-elect Trump announced on Tuesday the names of five more people who will join the Defense Department “landing team” overseeing the transition. They are: Mark Albrecht, chairman of the board at U.S. Space LLC; Kenneth Braithwaite, a senior VP at Vizient who previously served as a rear admiral as the Navy’s vice chief of information; Craig Duehring, an Air Force veteran and former assistant secretary of the Air Force for manpower and reserve affairs; David Trachtenberg, CEO of Shortwaver Consulting; and Dakota Wood, a senior research fellow for defense at the Heritage Foundation.

IRAN SANCTIONS: The Senate plans to vote on a bill this week that would extend sanctions on Iran for 10 years, McConnell said yesterday, Susan Crabtree writes. “Preserving these sanctions is critical given Iran’s disturbing pattern of aggression and its persistent efforts to expand its sphere of influence across the Middle East,” McConnell said. Sen. Ben Cardin, the ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, predicted that the bill could hit the Senate floor for a vote as early as today and that Obama is not opposed enough to veto it.

KILLING WITH KINDNESS: American sailors from the destroyers USS Hopper and USS Monterey rushed to the aid of five Iranian mariners who became ill while fishing in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, according to the Navy. A statement said the Monterey received a distress call from the small fishing dhow and sent its helicopter to investigate, after which sailors from Hopper sent a boarding team to the dhow to give the fishermen medicine.

Something similar happened on Nov. 18, when the destroyer USS Nitze came to the aid of three Iranian fishermen whose boat was dead in the water. After confirming that the boat’s battery had died, the destroyer’s crew gave them a new one and a case of water. In August, four Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps boats harassed that very same destroyer in the Strait, prompting the ship to sound its whistle and fire flares into the air.

The Good Samaritan policy was lost on a member of the IRGC, who Saturday pointed his boat’s weapon at a Navy MH-60 Seahawk helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. After the initial report came out Monday, Iranian media dismissed it as “propaganda.”

KILLING BY MISTAKE: Confirmation bias is one of the most common thinking errors committed by humans. It’s where we readily accept facts that support what we already think, and dismiss evidence that contradicts our belief. A U.S. military investigation concluded that was a major factor in why U.S. and coalition targeters mistook fighters aligned with the Syrian government for Islamic State fighters before a major airstrike in September. Once a vehicle was identified as belonging to ISIS, everything else was viewed through that filter, according to U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Richard Coe, the investigating officer. “In many ways, these forces looked and acted like the Da’esh [Islamic State] forces the Coalition has been targeting for the last two years,” Coe told reporters yesterday. That “confirmation bias” colored later analysis and resulted in the continuing misidentification. As many as 83 Syrian troops were killed and more that 100 wounded in the strike, according to human right groups. But the U.S. investigation was able to confirm only 15 deaths, because it had no access on the ground.

ALEPPO FALLING: The AP reports this morning that at least 21 people have been killed in an attack on a housing area for those displaced in rebel-held eastern Aleppo, and Syrian activists are accusing government forces of being behind it. Reuters has the death toll at 45. Meanwhile, an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War paints a grim picture. “The looming fall of Eastern Aleppo City to the regime and its allies poses a major threat to the long-term interests of the U.S. in Syria. Eastern Aleppo City serves as one of the last remaining major hubs of acceptable opposition groups in Northern Syria.” Read more from ISW here:

OTHER THAN HONORABLE: Vietnam Veterans of America sent a letter to both Obama and Trump on Tuesday night asking the current administration to pardon those vets who have an other-than-honorable discharge because of PTSD and asking Trump’s administration to uphold the executive action once he takes office in January. “Through an executive order, President Carter erased the felony-level offense of draft-dodging for thousands of men who refused to serve their country during the Vietnam War,” VVA President John Rowan wrote. “We believe that veterans who have done their duty and served their country deserve similar consideration before President Obama leaves office.”

OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL: The White House announced yesterday that it’s sending Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes and Ambassador Jeffrey DeLaurentis to Fidel Castro’s funeral in Cuba, Sarah Westwood and Joel Gehrke write. But whatever you do, don’t call it an official delegation, the White House said. “There’s a formal process” involved in naming a higher-level presidential delegation, spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters. “That will not be taking place this time, but the United States will be represented at the event.” Of course these are high-level officials, but the White House doesn’t want to look like it’s showing Cuba too much love, at the same time, the administration doesn’t want the warming relations with Havana to get chilly again.

INSPIRED BY ISIS: Abdul Razak Ali Artan, the suspect who died carrying out a knife and car attack on Ohio State University students Monday, might have intended to perpetrate an “act of terrorism,” Earnest said Tuesday. “There is plenty of available evidence to indicate that this individual may have been motivated by extremism,” Earnest said. Not long after the comment, the propaganda wing of ISIS conveniently took credit for the attack while offering no proof that it provided funding, training or any other operational support. New York Times reporter Rukmini Callimachi pointed out on Twitter that these messages have a cut-and-paste feel to them. Just add the name, city and weapon to the template and now you’ve got another soldier.

Trump tweet this morning: “ISIS is taking credit for the terrible stabbing attack at Ohio State University by a Somali refugee who should not have been in our country.”

THE SLOWEST DEPLOYMENT EVER: It was just over a year ago the Pentagon began talking about the need to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defense system to South Korea, in response to the North’s nuclear and ballistic missiles tests. In February, the U.S. Korea commander formally asked for the anti-missile system, and Obama approved the request, pending approval from South Korea. Since then we get periodic updates the deployment is about to happen, but it never does. Yesterday, Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said, “Our THAAD deployment continues. The effort to do that as quickly as possible continues forward, and I’m not aware of any plans to alter that at this point.” I guess when announced the plan, they forgot to include the standard disclaimer, “Batteries not included.”

COOK TIMER: Cook is on track to finish his tenure without ever starting Pentagon briefing at its scheduled time. Yesterday’s 2 p.m. briefing began a 2:17 p.m.

WREATHS NEEDED: Wreaths Across America is more than 118,000 wreaths short to be able to place a wreath on every grave in Arlington National Cemetery. That means about half of the headstones could be bare without an increase in donations.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Sen. McCain Is All In On Petraeus As Top US Diplomat, Others More Wary

Reuters: Assad, allies aim to seize all Aleppo before Trump takes power: official

Foreign Policy: Can ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis Temper the Impulsive President-Elect?

Defense One: The US Military Has a Pretty Good Plan to Keep Its Advantage. Trump Shouldn’t Mess With It

USNI News: Former CNO Roughead: Stepping Back From Alliances Like NATO ‘Perilous’ to U.S.

Military.com: Outgoing Navy Sec. Mabus Leaves Imprint on Policies, Ship Acquisition

Military.com: Commandant: Dropping Ratings Would Create ‘Chaos’ in Coast Guard

UPI: Independent report recommends changes in U.K. shipbuilding

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 30

12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright speaks about a new approach for the Middle East. atlanticcouncil.org

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 1

8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Rep. Mac Thornberry kick off a day-long Global Security Forum. csis.org

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Sean Stackley, the Navy’s assistant secretary for research, development and acquisition, is among those testifying at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the littoral combat ship. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds a hearing on force management levels in Iraq and Afghanistan. armedservices.house.gov

11 a.m. Dirksen 419. Two analysts testify at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about the future of counterterrorism strategy. foreign.senate.gov

3 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts an event on U.S. alliances with Japan and the United Kingdom. heritage.org

3:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The Stimson Center holds an event on the U.S. drone program. stimson.org

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 2

12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts discusses how President-elect Trump’s vision for the U.S. relationship with Asia may differ from the Obama administration’s plans. atlanticcouncil.org

SATURDAY | DECEMBER 3

7:30 a.m. Simi Valley, Calif. The annual Reagan National Defense Forum includes panels with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford and Defense Secretary Ash Carter. reaganfoundation.org

MONDAY | DECEMBER 5

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Korean and American officials talk about what the relationship between the two countries will look like in the next administration. csis.org

2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Robert Work, the deputy defense secretary, will speak about investing in the future of U.S. defense during a time of transition. brookings.edu

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 6

7:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. Defense One hosts an event on what helicopters will look like in 2030. defenseone.com

9:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The architect of the CIA’s enhanced interrogation programs will talk about his interrogations of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. aei.org

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 7

8:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The U.S. Naval Institute hosts its 2016 Defense Forum, including sessions with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller, Rep. Randy Forbes, and Rep. Ryan Zinke. usni.org

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Rep. Michael McCaul keynotes the Heritage Foundation’s annual state of homeland security address. heritage.org