MATTIS TO KOREA, JAPAN: As you read this, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis (yes all official Pentagon documents now refer to him as “Jim”) is winging his way to Osan Air Base in South Korea, first stop on his two-nation, four-day trip to consult with allies about confronting the growing threat from North Korea.
Mattis arrives as South Korea is roiled by political crisis, amid its own claims of “fake news” interfering with its election process. Former U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced this morning he will no longer run for president, blaming in part a toxic media environment in which he says he was the victim of “malign slander akin to character assassination.” South Korean President Park Geun-hye faces impeachment over charges of corruption. Mattis says he’s going to be mostly in listening mode, although he is expected to press South Korea to move ahead with the deployment of a single Lockheed Martin Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile battery. The South has been intimidated by China, which opposes the addition of THAAD to the Korean peninsula and has threatened economic retaliation, which has so far prevented the deployment.
North Korea continues to claim it is close to marrying a miniature nuclear warhead with an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the U.S., and this week commercial satellite imagery captured a water plume coming from North Korea’s plutonium-producing nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, indicating it may have been fired up again. At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing yesterday, Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute testified “North Korea is continuing down steadily, methodically and relentlessly on the path whose intended endpoint is a credible capacity to hit New York and Washington with nuclear weapons.”
From Korea, Mattis goes to Japan to consult with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Defense Minister Tomomi Inada and other Japanese officials about options for countering the North’s nuclear ambitions. While there, a Pentagon official says Mattis will also reaffirm America’s treaty commitment to defend the disputed Senkaku Islands, in the East China Sea, which are controlled by Japan but claimed by China. With allies worried that President Trump may pull back from international commitments, Mattis will publicly state that the uninhabited Senkaku Islands fall under Article 5 of the Japan-U.S. security treaty.
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THE “NOT A BAN” RESTRICTIONS: The White House insists barring foreign nationals from seven majority Muslim countries from entry into the U.S. does not constitute a “ban.” “It’s not a travel ban,” said Press Secretary Sean Spicer yesterday. “A ban would mean people can’t get in. We’ve clearly seen hundreds of thousands of people come into our country from other countries.” Spicer said the correct description of the restrictions is “a vetting system to keep America safe.” Got it? If not, here’s Jake Tapper’s take yesterday on CNN.
The White House also deployed Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly to explain to reporters at news conference that he was not out of the loop in the drafting of the executive order, and to dispute reports that the first he heard about it was as he was flying back to Washington on a Coast Guard plane. “We knew it was coming from, like two years ago, when Mr. Trump first started to run for president. Certainly didn’t learn about it on an airplane,” Kelly said. He was a little fuzzier on how much he was consulted or how much input he had, saying he left details to his staff. “I did know it was under development. I had an opportunity to look at at least two, as I recollect, drafts as it got closer to Friday. Again, don’t exactly know other than some of my legal shop representatives were involved,” Kelly said. “I didn’t get involved in correcting grammar or reformatting the thing.”
PLURALITY BACKS TRAVEL BAN: A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday afternoon found nearly half of U.S. adults support Trump’s executive order. The Jan. 30-31 poll concluded that 49 percent of adults “strongly” or “somewhat” agree with the Trump administration’s action. A total 41 percent “strongly” or “somewhat” disagreed with the White House’s move. Ten percent said they are undecided on the Jan. 27 announcement. The majority of Democrats, 53 percent, said they “strongly disagree” with Trump, while 51 percent of Republicans said they “strongly agree” with the policy to block people from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.
WHAT MATTIS SAID THEN: Last summer, when Mattis had no inkling he would be serving in Trump’s Cabinet, the then-private citizen made some strong comments about Trump’s call for a blanket Muslim ban. In an interview with Politico, Mattis said that kind of talks prompts U.S. allies to think “we have lost faith in reason.” Asked about the reaction in the Middle East to Trump’s plans, Mattis said, “They think we’ve completely lost it. This kind of thing is causing us great damage right now, and it’s sending shock waves through this international system.“ The White House says the current restrictions are not a ban on Muslims, because they are based on the threat from the seven countries, and immigrants from other Muslim nations are still being allowed in.
IRAQI PILOTS’ PLIGHT: The Air Force yesterday confirmed it is training about 30 Iraqi pilots in Arizona to fly F-16s for the fledgling Iraqi Air Force, and it’s working to ensure the program is not affected by the president’s order. An Air Force spokesman said 30 Iraqis are going through training at the 162nd Air Wing and that he didn’t know how many pilots may be traveling to or from the U.S. as training requirement varies. The Pentagon is working with the departments of State and Homeland Security “to ensure that Iraqis and any other individuals who were employed by or worked on behalf of the Department of Defense and who meet established requirements are exempted from travel restrictions.” The Pentagon is seeking exemptions for any Iraqis who received immigrant visas under the Special Immigrant Visa Program and “is evaluating the need for additional exemptions that are in the interest of national security.”
FREEZE FLOP: Trump’s federal hiring freeze on civilians is affecting troops and how ready they are to go to war, according to Rep. Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee. The freeze is contributing to problems in both maintenance and cyber because the department isn’t able to hire qualified civilians to fill these roles. “That is unconscionable and it directly affects the support we provide to U.S. service members in the field, not to mention the national security of the United States. This boneheaded, ideological attack on the functioning of our government is having real consequences,” Smith said.
US OUTRAGE OVER IRANIAN MISSILE TESTS: America’s ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley blasted Tehran yesterday for its latest ballistic missile test. “This is absolutely unacceptable,” Haley said. “We will act accordingly. We will be loud.” The UN Security Council met Tuesday to discuss Iran’s test-launch of a medium-range ballistic missile last weekend. U.S. military officials also confirmed that Iran secretly tested another missile in early December. Tehran fired a Shahab-3 on Dec. 6 at Semnan, though the missile’s destination is unknown. The intermediate range ballistic missile is modeled off a North Korean design and has a range of 800 miles, according to a report. Officials said the test was likely in breach of UN Resolution 2231, which was signed after the Iran nuclear deal. It called for a stop to “any activity” related to ballistic missiles’ carrying nuclear weapons. Monday, the U.S. learned Iran had fired a ballistic missile approximately 140 miles east of Tehran on Sunday, the first apparent breach of the UN resolution.
Sarah Westwood reports that Trump will soon face pressure to place fresh sanctions on Iran for its alleged violations of an international nuclear agreement. “They’ve been cheating like crazy on their missile program. Enough’s enough,” Sen. Lindsey Graham told the Washington Examiner. “I hope President Trump will push the [United Nations] Security Council to act, and I hope we’ll pass sanctions.” Graham called for “a new round of sanctions” based on Tehran’s failure to adhere to restrictions on its missile programs and its antagonism in the region more broadly.
TARGETING AMERICANS: American citizens will never be the targets of counterterrorism operations, White House press secretary Sean Spicer said Tuesday, Sarah Westwood reports. “No American citizen will ever be targeted,” Spicer said in response to questions about the reported death of the 8-year-old daughter of Anwar al-Awlaki, an American citizen and al Qaeda leader who was killed five years ago. Reports say his young daughter was killed in a counterterror raid in Yemen carried out by U.S. special operations forces on Sunday, but Pentagon officials say they cannot confirm any civilian casualties at this point, but the claims are being taken seriously and an investigation is underway.
The question arose because of a statement candidate Trump made in December of 2015, “The other thing with the terrorists is you have to take out their families, when you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families,” Trump told Fox and Friends at the time. “They care about their lives, don’t kid yourself. When they say they don’t care about their lives, you have to take out their families,” Trump said.
Later in the day, the White House walked back Spicer’s comment and said the U.S. rules have not changed. That official said the U.S. will continue to use former Attorney General Eric Holder’s justification, which said the citizen must pose an “imminent” threat to the U.S. before lethal force can be authorized.
WHO WAS THE HOUTHI TARGET? An attack on a Saudi warship Monday off the coast of Yemen by Houthi suicide bombers in a small boat has raised the question about whether the Iranian-backed rebels thought they were attacking a U.S. Navy ship. Some Pentagon analysts say the bombers knew they were attacking a Saudi-flagged vessel, in part because the defenses were not as robust. Others point to the audio track on a video recorded from another Houthi boat, in which a voice is heard yelling “Death to America.” U.S. military officials insist there is no way a small boat would be able to pull up next to a U.S. warship without being blown out of the water before it got close.
UKRAINE GETS WORSE: Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine have launched an offensive to recapture a city on the border of the territory currently controlled by separatist groups, according to a U.S. diplomat, Joel Gehrke writes. “Russia and the separatists initiated the violence in Avdiivka,” Kate Marie Byrnes, the charge d’affaires of the U.S. mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said during an emergency meeting of the organization. “We call on Russia to stop the violence, honor the cease-fire, withdraw heavy weapons, and end attempts to seize new territory beyond the line of contact.”
The State Department issued a travel warning for Ukraine in December, following reports of increased violence on the border of the contested territory, but the fighting intensified this week. OSCE reports that there were 2,499 explosions in a single 24-hour period from Sunday to Monday, “compared with 2,240 explosions in the previous 24 hours.”
CYBER ACCOUNTABILITY: Trump put his Cabinet on notice yesterday that it will be held responsible for any breaches in cybersecurity. “I will hold my Cabinet secretaries and agency heads accountable, totally accountable for the cybersecurity of their organization, of which we probably don’t have as much,” Trump said at a White House meeting with his top cybersecurity team. “Certainly not as much as we should have.” Attending were Rudy Giuliani, White House cybersecurity adviser; former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats, nominated to be director of national intelligence; Kelly from Homeland Security; retired Gen. Keith Alexander and former Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen. “We’re going to make sure that cybersecurity is central to both our military and the ships, planes and tanks built by great Americans for our great American military,” Trump promised. But the president did not sign an executive order aimed at strengthening cybersecurity, as was expected. No explanation of the delay was given.
SEARCHABLE MATTIS: Some of Mattis’ staff members are enjoying one aspect of the new boss. His name is easier to search on news archives and computer data bases. “Carter” produced a lot of hits when used as a search term. “Mattis” turns up far fewer “false positives.” Staff members also confirmed yesterday they have been instructed to refer to him as Jim in all official documents, and his DoD bio page has been corrected to reflect his first name preference.
THE RUNDOWN
Wall Street Journal: Pentagon Probe of Islamic State Intelligence Finds Reports Weren’t Skewed
IHS Janes: Philippine president threatens to scrap pre-positioning agreement with US
Defense One: Making America’s ICBMs Great Again
Defense News: New US Air Force Wish List Adds Billions for More Aircraft
Breaking Defense: Long-Range Strike: ‘More Potent,’ More Survivable & Cheaper
Washington Post: In deadly Yemen raid, a lesson for Trump’s national security team
Daily Beast: Donald ‘Kill Their Families’ Trump Played Into Al Qaeda’s Hands
Associated Press: US misfires in online fight against Islamic State
Marine Corps Times: Marines seek to destroy enemy drones
Defense One: By Lifting Sanctions, Trump Could Hand Russia’s Military a Lethal Technological Advantage
UPI: Russian government rules out defense spending cuts
Army Times: Four soldiers injured in helicopter accident on Fort Campbell
Military Times: Trump’s pick to lead VA isn’t a veteran. Does that matter?
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1
10:00 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Retired Gen. David Petraeus testifies before the House Armed Services Committee about national security threats and challenges. armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. Two subcommittees of the House Foreign Relations Committee hold a joint hearing on the impact of a free trade agreement between the U.S. and U.K. foreignaffairs.house.gov
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Seth Jones discusses his new book, Waging Insurgent Warfare: Lessons from the Vietcong to the Islamic State. heritage.org
2:30 p.m. Dirksen 106. Senate Veterans Affairs Committee holds a confirmation hearing for David Shulkin, the nominee to run the Department of Veterans Affairs. veterans.senate.gov
3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Two panels discuss the future of nuclear deterrence and alliances. csis.org
6 p.m. Livestream. A panel of experts, including former Army Chief Gen. Ray Odierno, talk about the state of Iraq 10 years after the surge. cfr.org
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 2
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. A panel of think tank experts testifies on challenges for the new administration with regard to Israel and Palestine. foreignaffairs.house.gov
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3
2:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Retired Gen. David Petraeus talks about the unsung heroes of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. aei.org
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 6
1:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Sen. Tom Cotton speaks about renewing American strength abroad. aei.org
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 7
9 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway, Arlington, Va. Lt. Gen. Scott Rice, the director of the Air National Guard, speaks at an event for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. mitchellaerospacepower.org
