EUROPE IS REELING: In the wake of President-elect Trump’s interview with a German and British newspaper published over the weekend, European leaders are even more uncertain about the future of the once unshakable transatlantic relationship. The headline this morning in the London Times, which took part in the interview, reads, “Trump broadside stuns Europe.” The text has a tone of alarm: “Angela Merkel is pressing for a meeting with Donald Trump after he caused ‘astonishment and agitation’ among European leaders with attacks on NATO, the EU and the German chancellor herself,” the Times reported.
KERRY WEIGHS IN: Outgoing Secretary of State John Kerry faulted Trump for criticizing Merkel, characterizing his published comments as “inappropriate.” “I thought frankly it was inappropriate for a president-elect of the United States to be stepping into the politics of other countries in a quite direct manner,” Kerry told CNN yesterday.
In that Bild/London Times interview, Trump was asked if he agreed with President Obama‘s statement that he “might support” Merkel if he had the right to vote in a German election. “I don’t know who she’s running against, number one, I’m just saying, I don’t know her, I’ve never met her,” Trump replied. “As I said, I’ve had great respect for her. I felt she was a great, great leader. I think she made one very catastrophic mistake and that was taking all of these illegals, you know taking all of the people from wherever they come from. Now, with that being said, I respect her, I like her, but I don’t know her. So I can’t talk about who I’m gonna be backing — if anyone.”
In Berlin, Merkel said she would cooperate with Trump “on all levels,” but added, “We Europeans have our own destiny in our own hands.” She says she has talked to Trump only once, and has yet to schedule a meeting with the incoming U.S. president.
TRUMP AND NATO: Lots of fallout from Trump’s comments this weekend about NATO, despite the fact he said the alliance “was” obsolete (implying now it is not) and quickly adding it’s “very important to me.” Vice President-elect Mike Pence went on Fox News yesterday to try to reassure jittery allies that Trump isn’t about to abandon them. When Trump comes into office, Pence said, he will be prepared to work with all countries. “Donald Trump is going to square his shoulders, he’s going to engage the world and we’re going to look for opportunity to make progress for peace and security,” Pence said.
RUSSIA ALSO CONFUSED: In a news conference in Moscow this morning, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov he didn’t exactly see the linkage between sanctions and nuclear weapons reductions, but said Russia looks forward to working with Trump as soon as he takes office. In his interview, Trump said cryptically, “They have sanctions on Russia. Let’s see if we can make some good deals with Russia. For one thing, I think nuclear weapons should be way down and reduced very substantially, that’s part of it.” Lavrov told reporters that a dialogue with the U.S. could cover hypersonic weapons, the U.S. missile shield in Europe, space weapons and nuclear testing, according to Reuters. Lavrov also said any deployment of NATO troops to the Baltic countries would be be seen as an aggressive move by Russia.
WHAT DID HE SEE? Trump also made some disjointed, stream-of-consciousness observations about the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, which you may recall includes helping the Afghan military defeat the Taliban while avoiding front line combat for U.S. troops. Just last month, U.S. Afghanistan commander Gen. John Nicholson gave a cautiously upbeat assessment, saying the Afghan forces were finding their footing and keeping the Taliban in check. But after Trump was briefed on the situation there he said “Afghanistan is, is not going well. Nothing’s going well.”
“I looked at something, uh, I’m not allowed to show you because it’s classified – but, I just looked at Afghanistan and you look at the Taliban – and you take a look at every, every year it’s more, more, more, you know they have the different colours – and you say, you know – what’s going on?”
A source confirms to us that the “colours” were charts showing areas of the country in which the population is under Taliban control. In unclassified briefings, the Pentagon says Afghan security forces have control over two-thirds of the population centers, the Taliban control less than 10 percent and the other 25 percent remains contested. Trump seemed to indicate he was unhappy about Obama administration restrictions that are designed to keep U.S. troops out of the line of fire. “Now in all fairness,” Trump said “we haven’t let our people do what they’re supposed to do.” That raises the obvious questions: “Will Trump change the rules of engagement, to unshackle U.S. commanders? Or will he see Afghanistan as a lost cause?”
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NOT THE LEAKER: Outgoing CIA Director John Brennan fired back at Trump’s Twitter suggestion that he may have leaked the unsubstantiated “Russian dossier.” “Was I a leaker of this? No,” Brennan told the Wall Street Journal. And he took particular exception to Trump’s Jan. 11 tweet, which said, “Intelligence agencies should never have allowed this fake news to ‘leak’ into the public. One last shot at me.Are we living in Nazi Germany?”
“I found that to be very repugnant,” Brennan said. “Tell the families of those 117 CIA officers who are forever memorialized on our wall of honor that their loved ones who gave their lives were akin to Nazis,” Brennan said. “I will forever stand up for the integrity and patriotism of my officers who have done much over the years to sacrifice for their fellow citizens.”
BUDGET BATTLE BREWING: Sen. John McCain released a white paper yesterday spelling out how he’d like the Pentagon’s budget for the next five years to unfold, which may offer a preview of the fiscal 2018 joint plan from McCain and Rep. Mac Thornberry that’s expected to be released this week. The 33-page report reads like a primer for the incoming Trump administration, outlining in plain language how we got where we are, and what needs to be done to reverse the decline in U.S. military readiness and combat capability.
“The damage that has been done to our military over the past eight years will not be reversed in one year. Just stemming the bleeding caused by recent budget cuts will take most of the next five years, to say nothing of the sustained increases in funding required thereafter,” writes McCain. “It is not cheap — roughly $430 billion of new money above the Obama administration’s defense budget for the next five years, which is already more than $100 billion above the budget caps in law.” Among the highlights: buying 59 ships over the next five years, buying more F/A-18 Super Hornets and growing Marine Corps troop levels to 200,000 by 2022. Lots more here.
TWITTER JITTERS: In that same interview Trump gave this weekend (we keep coming back to that because there is so much in it), he also said he plans to keep his personal Twitter account when he’s president, Gabby Morrongiello writes. “I think I’ll keep it,” said the incoming Republican president. Trump also showed he is fully aware that his early morning tweets set the news agenda for the day, and allow him to drive the conversation on the cable news networks. “It’s working,” Trump boasted. “I thought I’d do less of it, but I’m covered so dishonestly by the press, so dishonestly, that I can put out Twitter … I can go bing bing bing and I just keep going and they put it on and as soon as I tweet it out.”
Nicole Duran reports that national security experts are worried Trump’s use of Twitter could be a problem. “It’s not a good idea for the president to operate,” as Trump now does, said retired Rear Adm. Jamie Barnett, a cyber and homeland security expert in Venable LLP’s Washington office.
“Just like President Obama and everyone before him had to alter their personal activities and behavior based on taking the role of commander in chief of our country, I would hope that, similarly, Donald Trump would adjust his personal habits and behavior based on that,” said Rep. John Ratcliffe, R-Texas.
CROWLEY BOWS OUT: Monica Crowley, a conservative commentator who was set to join Trump’s administration as a senior aide in the National Security Council and who has been under fire for plagiarism in her book and Ph.D. thesis, will not join the administration, Kyle Feldscher writes.
In a statement, Crowley said she has decided to leave Trump’s team in order to do other things in New York. “After much reflection I have decided to remain in New York to pursue other opportunities and will not be taking a position in the incoming administration,” she said in a statement. “I greatly appreciate being asked to be part of President-elect Trump’s team and I will continue to enthusiastically support him and his agenda for American renewal.” She made no mention of the plagiarism allegations.
WAIT AND SEE: British diplomats are refusing to sign an Israeli-Palestinian peace proposal developed at an international conference in Paris, and say any deal requires direct negotiation between the two parties and the involvement of Trump’s team, Joel Gehrke writes. “We have particular reservations about an international conference intended to advance peace between the parties that does not involve them — indeed which is taking place against the wishes of the Israelis — and which is taking place just days before the transition to a new American President when the U.S. will be the ultimate guarantor of any agreement,” the U.K.’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office said in a Sunday press statement.
MARINES LAND IN NORWAY: Three hundred U.S. Marines arrived in Norway on Monday for a six-month deployment, with another batch of troops to replace them in July, Anna Giaritelli writes. It’s the first time since World War II that Norway has allowed foreign troops to be stationed in the country. Several thousand troops were recently sent to Poland to aid Eastern European allies who worry about an increasingly bold Russia. The Marines’ deployment was announced in October and officials deny any connection to the current unease with Russia.
POWER TO HIT HARD: The Obama administration in its final days will keep hitting Russia over cyberwarfare, its aggression in Ukraine and military support for the Syrian government, despite the intention of the incoming president to warm U.S. relations with Russia.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power plans to deliver a speech on U.S.-Russia relations to the Atlantic Council on Tuesday. The speech will be followed by a moderated discussion titled, “The Threat, the International Order, and the Way Forward.” “Ambassador Power will speak to the serious threat Russia poses to the rules-based international order and what must be done to address that threat,” the Atlantic Council said in a release about the speech.
HAPPENING TODAY: Kevin Baron, the executive editor of Defense One, moderates a live Q&A with the chief of naval operations this morning at the Watergate. Look for Adm. John Richardson to talk about the service’s new fleet plan, which says the Navy needs 355 ships to meet current missions.
WORK NOT DONE: In case you missed it, at last Friday’s Pentagon formal salute to Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, the former Marine officer confirmed reports he’s been asked to remain on the job for a short time to provide continuity. “You probably notice that this was billed as a recognition ceremony rather than a farewell ceremony,” Work said. “That’s because I’ll be staying just a little bit longer to help with the transition until my successor is confirmed.”
THE RUNDOWN
Washington Post: ‘Never Trump’ national-security Republicans fear they have been blacklisted
CNN: Before presidential run, Trump called Russia the ‘biggest problem’ and geopolitical foe of U.S.
War on the Rocks: “Peace through strength” or “Peace for our time?” The dangers of Trump’s pursuit of Putin
Military.com: Muted Reaction in Russia to Trump’s Talk of Nuclear Arms Cut
USA Today: U.S. Ramps Up Airdrops To Forces Fighting ISIL In Syria
Task and Purpose: LGBT Advocates Liked What They Heard From Mattis
USNI News: Document: Report to Congress on Joint Light Tactical Vehicle
Defensetech.org: From Drone Swarms To Smart Data, Pentagon Eyes A.I.
New York Times: Suspect in Istanbul Rampage on New Year’s Is Captured, Turkey Says
New York Times: F.B.I. Arrests Wife of Killer in Orlando Mass Shooting
Calendar
TUESDAY | JANUARY 17
8 a.m. 600 New Hampshire Ave. NW. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson talks about the future of the Navy in a Defense One Live event. defenseone.com
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former CBS anchor Bob Schieffer leads a panel on foreign policy challenges facing the Trump administration. csis.org
11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Air Force Col. John Dorrian briefs the media live from Baghdad on operations to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Livestreamed at defense.gov
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, speaks about Russia’s impact on the world order. atlanticcouncil.org
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Frank Kendall, the undersecretary of acquisition, technology and logistics, talks about improving the Pentagon’s acquisition process. csis.org
4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Ben Rhodes, the assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for strategic communications and speechwriting, speaks about lessons learned about national security from which the next administration can benefit. csis.org
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 18
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Gen. David Goldfein, the Air Force chief of staff, speaks about the future of American air power. aei.org
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee considers the nomination of South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley to be the U.S. representative to the United Nations. foreign.senate.gov
THURSDAY | JANUARY 19
11:30 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments releases a new report titled “Preserving the Balance—A Eurasia Defense Strategy.” csbaonline.org
MONDAY | JANUARY 23
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. A panel of think tank experts talks about prospects for the defense budget in the Trump administration. csis.org
TUESDAY | JANUARY 24
5:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Reporter Graeme Wood talks about his first-hand encounters with the Islamic State. aei.org
