MATTIS PUTS NORTH KOREA ON NOTICE: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis delivered a blunt warning to North Korea before departing Seoul on in his first overseas trip. “America’s commitments to defending our allies and to upholding our extended deterrence guarantees remain ironclad,” Mattis said at a joint news conference with South Korean Defense Minister Han Min Koo. “Any attack on the United States, or our allies, will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons would be met with a response that would be effective and overwhelming.”
After Korea, Mattis went to Japan for meetings with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and other Japanese officials. He underscored the same message of resolve, and told Abe not to worry too much about statements President Trump made on the campaign trail. Mattis told Abe, despite complaining about allies not paying enough for their own defense, Trump is fully committed to defending Japan as a treaty partner. “I want to make certain that … our mutual defense treaty is understood to be as real to us today as it was a year ago, five years ago – and as it will be a year, and 10 years, from now,” Mattis said.
The secretary returns to Washington this weekend to confront a desk full of thorny policy problems that will put his military acumen to the test.
TWO TAKES: The Washington Post and the New York Times are both out with front-page take-outs this morning analyzing the Trump foreign policy after two weeks. The Post, in a detailed, sourced story, highlights how the Trump team unceremoniously discarded President Obama’s careful and cautious strategy to defeat the Islamic State in its last stronghold in Raqqa, Syria. Reports the Post: “Obama’s approach was so incremental and risk-averse that it was almost certain to fail. ‘They provided the information, but we found huge gaps in it,’ said a senior Trump administration official who reviewed the document. ‘It was poor staff work.’ ”
The Times on the other hand sees Trump as “embracing some key pillars of the former administration’s strategy, including warning Israel to curb settlement construction, demanding that Russia withdraw from Crimea and threatening Iran with sanctions for ballistic missile tests.”
At the U.N. yesterday, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley fired a shot across Moscow’s bow in the wake of renewed fighting by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. “I consider it unconscionable that the occasion of my first appearance here is one in which I must condemn the aggressive actions of Russia,” Haley said. “The dire situation in eastern Ukraine is one that demands clear and strong condemnation of Russian actions.”
Haley, in her first remarks at the United Nations Security Council, said Trump will retain Obama’s sanctions on Russia until the former Soviet power withdraws from Ukrainian territory. “We do want to better our relations with Russia,” Haley said, adding “Eastern Ukraine, of course, is not the only part of the country suffering because of Russia’s aggressive actions. Crimea is a part of Ukraine. Our Crimea-related sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns control over the peninsula to Ukraine.”
Sen. John McCain, a sharp critic of Obama’s failure to arm Ukrainian troops, has fired off a letter to Trump asking him to use the authority Obama never did. Under Obama, the U.S. provided only non-lethal assistance to Ukraine. McCain says Ukrainian forces battling separatists backed by Moscow need a lot more firepower, and it’s time for the U.S. to step up. “Failing to do so now not only risks Ukraine’s sovereignty, but the further erosion of American credibility,” McCain wrote.
On Iran, the Trump administration appears poised to impose new sanctions carefully crafted to avoid running afoul of the Iran nuclear deal, which for now Trump seems unwilling to tear up, as he promised. The new the sanctions could be announced as soon as today, given National Security Adviser Mike Flynn’s “on notice” statement two days ago. “The new sanctions, are being taken under existing executive orders covering terrorism and weapons of mass destruction,” reports Reuters, which says the package will target “both entities and individuals.”
Trump tweeted this morning: “Iran is playing with fire – they don’t appreciate how ‘kind’ President Obama was to them. Not me!”
NEW SUPPLEMENTAL IN THE WORKS: In the urgent guidance issued to Pentagon budgeteers this week by Mattis, is an order to quickly draw up a supplemental request to this year’s budget to address critical readiness issues, including restoring full flying hours to combat pilots, and restoring depleted ammunition stocks. Mattis wants to send the request to Congress ASAP.
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HAPPENING TODAY: The AEI conversation this afternoon with retired Gen. David Petraeus to talk about the importance of local translators to U.S. national security was scheduled long before the Trump administration’s travel ban thrust it into the spotlight. Following Petraeus’ remarks, a former Iraqi translator, a former Afghan translator and Matt Zeller, a former Army captain and founder of No One Left behind, speak on a panel about their experiences. Registration for the event is closed, but you can watch online here.
Yesterday, Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff Davis welcomed a decision by the Trump administration to allow Iraqi translators who hold special immigrant visas to travel to the United States. “We are pleased that the U.S. government has determined that it’s in the national interest,” said Davis, who added in many cases it involves people “who’ve worked and put themselves in great personal risk.” Since the Pentagon doesn’t issue visas, Davis says the next step is to work with the State Department and DHS to make sure Iraqi and other foreign nationals who “are vital to the success of all our military efforts” get due consideration.
MULVANEY MOVES FORWARD: Rep. Mick Mulvaney, the would-be director of the Office of Management and Budget, passed both the Senate Budget Committee and Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee yesterday, setting him up for a vote in the full Senate. Of note, McCain voted for Mulvaney in committee, despite criticizing him in a confirmation hearing for voting in favor of cutting military spending (Mulvaney has spoken out against the overseas contingency operations fund). How McCain will vote on the floor of the Senate, however, is still up in the air.
YEMEN RAID FALLOUT: The White House is sticking by its recent authorization of a clandestine raid at an al Qaeda facility in Yemen, despite the military acknowledging that civilian casualties were likely, a U.S. Navy SEAL was killed and mounting questions over the operation’s timing, Gabby Morrongiello writes. “It’s hard to ever call something a complete success when you have the loss of life or people injured,” Spicer told reporters on Thursday. “But I think when you look at the totality of what was gained to prevent the future loss of life here in America and against our people and our institutions, I think it was a successful operation by all standards.”
The Pentagon insists that the mission yielded “valuable and actionable intelligence” that will help defeat al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula, which the Pentagon says remains the most capable element of al Qaeda in “exporting terror to the West.” Davis, along with other Pentagon officials, vigorously disputed a New York Times report that the U.S. Navy SEALs conducting the raid lost the element of surprise.
MCCAIN’S TAKE: McCain said Thursday that Mattis would not have allowed SEAL Team 6 to embark on the deadly raid in Yemen without believing it was fully prepared. “I don’t think Mattis would have done that,” McCain, told the Washington Examiner. “There is always a risk in any mission, and I’m sure that they assessed the risk.”
McCain said “a complete investigation and briefing” will be required, but added, “It’s important to point out this planning was done by the Obama administration and executed by the Trump administration.”
TICK-TOCK: The White House released the following timeline for how the raid was planned and approved.
Nov. 7, 2016 – The U.S. Central Command submits the plan to the Pentagon.
Dec. 19, 2016 – It’s approved by the Pentagon and sent to National Security Council.
Jan. 6, 2017 – After an interagency deputies meeting, it is quickly approved. Because the plan calls for a “moonless night,” which by the calendar wouldn’t occur until Trump was in office, the final call is left to him.
Jan. 24 – Four days into the job, Mattis reviews the plan and signs off, sending it back up to the White House.
Jan. 25 – Trump is briefed by Flynn. Trump then requests a meeting with Mattis and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, followed by a dinner meeting with Vice President Mike Pence, Mattis, Dunford, Flynn, Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, Jared Kushner, Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, Keith Kellogg and CIA Director Mike Pompeo, where the operation is reviewed in detail.
Jan. 26 – The deputies committee reaffirms support for the plan, and later in the day Trump signs the execute order.
WORRY DOWN UNDER: Trump’s heated phone call with Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull could help China’s rise to power in the region, according to an Australian foreign policy expert, Joel Gehrke writes. “Trump has just done China a big favour in its efforts to weaken the US-Australia alliance — and thus harmed US strategic interests,” Professor Rory Medcalf, the head of the National Security College at Australian National University, tweeted in response to news of the call.
Trump cut short a phone call with Turnbull after they disagreed about whether the United States should honor an agreement, struck by then-Secretary of State John Kerry, to accept refugees who fled to Australia and were detained in offshore detention facilities. Trump suggested the refugees would be the “next Boston bombers,” according to a transcript obtained by the Washington Post, and complained about the conversation.
Later in the day, the White House tacitly acknowledged that the two disagreed when the discussion turned to the issue of refugees, David M. Drucker writes. Boris Epshteyn, assistant communications director and special assistant to the president, said in an interview with “Examining Politics” that it’s impossible for the U.S. and its allies to agree on everything, and that Trump is willing to show tough love to America’s friends, even if it ruffles some feathers.
“I don’t think we should be believing unnamed sources and any sort of purported leaks at any time — any of those can not be trusted,” Epshteyn said, during a conversation with the Washington Examiner’s weekly podcast. “But what the president has been clear on is that, allies can have conversations which are not just about how wonderful the weather is. Right? They can be conversations about specific issues; there could be at some point, a needed [re]alignment or a need to discuss a situation in which there may not be perfect agreement on. There’s nothing wrong with that.”
UNNECESSARY, HARMFUL: McCain called Trump’s dispute with Australia “unnecessary and harmful” on Thursday, Al Weaver writes. Speaking with CNN, the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman pointed to the long-lasting U.S. relationship with Australia, including their work alongside the United States in Vietnam.
“Australia fought alongside us in wars, including losing over 500 brave Australians in the Vietnam War, which some of us remember,” McCain said. “This, in my view, was an unnecessary and, frankly, harmful open dispute over an issue which is not nearly as important as United States/Australian cooperation, working together, including training of our Marines in Australia and other areas of military cooperation and intelligence.”
McCain’s Democratic counterpart on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. Jack Reed, also did what he could to smooth over relations with the close ally. Reed told Ambassador Joe Hockey on the phone that he “deeply values” the partnership between the two countries. “Through thick and thin, our countries have been there for each other and will continue that partnership in the future because we are united by shared bonds and values,” a readout of the phone call said.
DEFROSTING THE FREEZE: Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work has issued guidance on who is and isn’t covered by Trump’s federal civilian hiring freeze. Many civilians who work for DoD perform “mission critical” functions. The long list of exemptions includes cyber warriors, nuclear weapons teams, doctors and other medical personnel, firefighters and law enforcement, morticians, as well as childcare providers for DoD families.
SUPER FLYOVER: There is no more high-profile event for the Air Force precision flying team to show off their “right stuff” than the nation’s premier sporting event, the Super Bowl. Look for the Air Force Thunderbirds to perform over NRG Stadium in Houston, along with what the Pentagon says will be a cool virtual reality experience for some U.S. troops in Poland, who will be “virtually” transported to the field. The Pentagon points out funds for the flyover come from the Thunderbirds’ regular budget, and that the U.S. military is not paying the NFL for its participation in big game.
THE RUNDOWN
Bloomberg: Trump’s Ex-Campaign Manager Said to Aid Lockheed in F-35 Dispute
USNI News: Shipyard, Depot Employees, MSC Civilian Mariners Exempted From Hiring Freeze
Task and Purpose: The Military Keeps Picking Sig Sauer When It Needs It Most
Army Times: First enlisted women report to Army infantry school
UPI: China may receive 10 Russian Su-35 jets in 2017
USNI News: Newport News Shipbuilding Awarded $25M For CVN-80 Advance Fabrication
Stars and Stripes: Veterans take to Capitol Hill to protest immigration ban
Defense One: Don’t Blame Trump for the Yemen Raid’s Outcome
Associated Press: Rebuilding shattered Aleppo will take billions – and peace
Calendar
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3
8 a.m. 300 First St. SE, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein provides remarks on “Space – A Warfighting Domain” at the Capitol Hill Club.
2:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Retired Gen. David Petraeus talks about the unsung heroes of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. aei.org
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 6
1:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Sen. Tom Cotton speaks about renewing American strength abroad. aei.org
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 7
9 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway, Arlington, Va. Lt. Gen. Scott Rice, the director of the Air National Guard, speaks at an event for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. mitchellaerospacepower.org
9:30 a.m. Senate Visitor’s Center 217. The Senate Armed Services Committee receives a closed briefing on cyber threats from Adm. Mike Rogers, the head of U.S. Cyber Command. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Think tank experts testify about what next steps the U.S. should take to counter the threat from North Korea. foreignaffairs.house.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Each of the service’s vice chiefs testifies on the state of the military at the House Armed Services Committee. armedservices.house.gov
2:30 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence receives a closed briefing. intelligence.senate.gov
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 8
2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The Stimson Center hosts an event examining the risks and rewards of President Trump’s new strategy toward Asia. stimson.org
2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. The service’s vice chiefs testify at the Senate Armed Services Committee about the military’s readiness. armed-services.senate.gov
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 9
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Experts from the Atlantic Council and the Center for New American Strategy testify on the challenges ahead in the relationship between Russia and the U.S. foreign.senate.gov
2 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence receives a closed briefing. intelligence.senate.gov
