TRUMP IN TRANSITION: Now the hard part. Donald Trump begins the transition from the exhilaration of campaigning to the exhausting reality of governing. Two days after his convention-defying victory, Trump meets at the White House with President Obama, while first lady Michelle Obama hosts Melania Trump, and Vice President Joe Biden has invited Mike Pence for dinner and tour of the VP’s residence at Observatory Circle in Northwest D.C. in the near future.
At the Pentagon, they’re awaiting the arrival of Trump’s transition team. Office space has been set aside, and briefing books are stuffed with position papers on challenges facing the nation and the individual services. As of yesterday, nobody from Team Trump had been spotted in the halls of the Pentagon, but as one officer noted, “We often never see them, they are squirreled away in a remote office somewhere.” The whole building had the feel of the calm before the storm, considering that during the campaign Trump’s bombastic rhetoric seems to presage seismic shifts in everything from spending to Syria policy.
The most popular parlor game Washington is predicting or perhaps more precisely “guessing” who will be in Trump’s Cabinet. An informal survey of think-tankers an insiders revealed there’s scant hard intelligence, but plenty of speculation. “Those who know, don’t say. Those who say, don’t know,” quipped James Jay Carafano of the Heritage Foundation. “I am in the category of those who don’t know and don’t say.” The name that keeps coming up for defense secretary is Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., who Trump praised effusively in his early Wednesday morning victory speech.
Meanwhile, the Daily Beast is reporting the Trump folks are scrambling to find suitable candidates to fill all the sub-level positions at OSD, the deputies and assistant secretaries who make the huge bureaucracy run. The problem is a long list of Republican “Never Trumpers,” who vowed during the campaign not to work for a man they deemed unqualified to be commander in chief. The Daily Beast quotes Paul Rosenzweig, who held a senior position at the Department of Homeland Security in the George W. Bush administration, as saying “Everybody who has signed a never-Trump letter or indicated an anti-Trump attitude is not going to get a job. And that’s most of the Republican foreign policy, national security, intelligence, homeland security, and Department of Justice experience.”
Another major question is how Trump will implement the Iran nuclear deal, which he has promised to renegotiate. Analysts said the most likely scenario is Trump enforcing the deal so strictly that Iran is forced to back out. But Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said there’s “no possibility” of Trump unilaterally canceling the deal, since it was signed off on by multiple United Nations countries.
Industry, especially shipbuilders, could stand to benefit from Trump’s win. Roman Schweizer, an analyst with the Cowen Washington Research Group, predicted that the Pentagon will spend $136 billion more than the Budget Control Act caps allow between fiscal 2018 and fiscal 2021.
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AYOTTE OUT: The biggest loss on the armed services committees comes in the departure of New Hampshire Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who lost in a squeaker to Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Ayotte has been a prominent voice on military matters, ranging from keeping Gitmo open to saving the A-10. Apart from Ayotte, most armed services committee members in the House and Senate who were running for reelection are returning to Congress in 2017. Rep. Brad Ashford, D-Neb., was the only other casualty.
McCONNELL ON MANDATE: With Republicans in control of the White House, both houses of Congress and 30 state governorships, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell offered some sage words of advice yesterday on how Republicans should wield their new mandate. “I think it’s always a mistake to misread your mandate. And frequently new majorities think it’s going to be forever. Nothing is forever in this country. We have an election every two years right on schedule. We have had since 1788. And so I don’t think we should act as if we’re going to be in the majority forever. We’ve been given a temporary lease on power, if you will. And I think we need to use it responsibly. I think what the American people are looking for is results. And to get results in the Senate, as all of you know, it requires some Democratic participation and cooperation.”
PAGING JOHN MCCAIN: Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton defended the use of waterboarding on Wednesday, telling CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that the practice would be fairly administered by Trump if it is necessary. Blitzer asked the first-term Republican if the incoming GOP president’s comments earlier in the race, that “torture works,” still rang true. “Waterboarding isn’t torture. We do waterboarding to our own soldiers in the military. But we’ve done it in the past and radio DJs volunteer for it,” Cotton shot back. Would be interesting to hear what former POW Sen. John McCain has to say about that.
BIDEN: TRUMP WILL BE A FRIEND OF ISRAEL: Speaking at a dinner for the World Jewish Congress, Biden expressed confidence that President Trump will be good to his word in maintaining stalwart support for Israel. “A number of my friends in the community are anxious about what it’ll mean for America’s commitment to Israel. I stand here to tell you that I have no doubt, none whatsoever, that in the Trump administration there will be no diminution of support as a consequence of this transition,” Biden said. In his congratulatory message, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump “a true friend of Israel.”
DUNFORD THE DIPLOMAT: Fresh from his consultations with Turkey over the Raqqa offensive in Syria, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford wrapped up two days of talks in Saudi Arabia, and is now in Baghdad meeting with Iraqi leaders discussing the Mosul campaign. In Saudi Arabia, Dunford met with Saudi King Salman, and Chief of Defense Gen. Abdulrahman bin Saleh Al-Banyan, and talks centered on “the important role Saudi Arabia plays in regional security,” according to the chairman’s spokesman Navy Capt. Gregory Hicks. Dunford is trying to both reassure allies and ensure they are on the same page in the fight against the Islamic State.
KEEP CALM, CARRY ON: Secretary of State John Kerry pledged Wednesday that he and the rest of the American diplomatic corps will “continue pushing every aspect” of Obama’s foreign policy until Trump takes office, Joel Gehrke writes. “The pace of events across the globe does not allow for timeouts,” Kerry wrote in a letter to State Department employees. “Our goal should be to continue pushing every aspect of our foreign policy forward between now and when the new leadership team takes office.” That raises the unavoidable tension between current policies and the likely positions of the incoming administration, given how much Trump campaigned against Obama’s foreign policy. From the Iran deal to the Trans-Pacific Partnership and beyond, Trump attacked Obama’s record — but the State Department doesn’t plan to change course before Inauguration Day.
SO DID IRAN CHEAT? The State Department on Wednesday refused to concede that Iran violated its nuclear agreement with the U.S. and other countries by stockpiling more heavy water than allowed under the deal, Gehrke also writes. The International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that Iran had stockpiled heavy water, a material needed for nuclear reactors, at a level that exceeds the amount they’re allowed to maintain under the terms of the deal. The IAEA made that determination in a Nov. 2 report, which Reuters revealed on Wednesday.
EVEN THE CLEANEST WAR IS DIRTY: The United States takes unprecedented measure to avoid unintended civilian deaths in its bombing campaign against the Islamic State, using the most accurate intelligence, and painstakingly cross-checking every target. Still war is never antiseptic. The U.S. Central Command has completed a months-long review, and found that over the past year, 24 U.S. airstrikes in Iraq and Syria may have killed 64 civilians and injured eight others. “It’s a key tenet of the counter-ISIL air campaign that we do not want to add to the tragedy of the situation by inflicting addition suffering,” said spokesman Col. John Thomas in a statement accompanying the report. “Sometimes civilians bear the brunt of military action but we do all we can to minimize those occurrences even at the cost of sometimes missing the chance to strike valid targets in real time.”
HAPPY BIRTHDAY! Notice all those Marines in their sharp dress uniforms today? It’s the 241st birthday for United States Marine Corps, founded Nov. 10, 1775. Watch the official Marine Corps birthday message here.
THE RUNDOWN
War on the Rocks: How much will Donald Trump really spend on defense?
Military Times: The number of Iraq and Afghanistan vets in Congress will rise in 2017
Defense News: Northern Europe, Baltics Worry About the ‘Unknowns’ of a Trump Reign
Inside Defense: Former defense execs running Trump’s DOD transition team
Daily Beast: Team Trump Struggling to Fill National Security Jobs
USNI News: Randy Forbes is the Favorite for Trump’s Secretary of the Navy
Defense One: Will Trump Keep Obama’s Top Mideast General?
Wall Street Journal: Trump Victory Causes ‘Serious Concerns’ in Middle East
Time: Former NATO Supreme Commander on Trump and Security: Buckle Up
Reuters: Russia revels in Trump victory, looks to sanctions relief
Military Times: Dear President-elect: Advocacy group’s open letter to Trump outlines key concerns of military families
Task and Purpose: Here’s What The New Missouri Governor, A Navy SEAL, Told A Buddy Struggling With PTSD
Military.com: US Access to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base Assured, For Now
Army Times: The Army is building an airborne bomb squad
Calendar
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 10
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Officials speak on a panel on preventing terrorists from getting chemical weapons. csis.org
10:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Think tank experts talk about security and insecurity in the relationship with Iran after the nuclear deal. stimson.org
12 noon. 1800 M Street NW, Foundation for Defense of Democracies hosts discussion on the battle of Mosul and what it means for the next administration . New York Times reporter Michael Gordon just back from the front lines, joins Thomas Joscelyn, Semior. Editor of FDD’s Long War Journal.
5:30 pm. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. National Journal’s James Kitfield speaks about his new book, Twilight Warriors: The Soldiers, Spies, and Special Agents Who Are Revolutionizing the American Way of War. csis.org
MONDAY | NOVEMBER 14
1 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of think tank experts undertakes a pathgame where violence breaks out after mobile communications are cut. atlanticcouncil.org
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 15
9:30 a.m. 600 New Hampshire Ave. NW. Adm. Harry Harris, the commander of U.S. Pacific Command, talks about what’s next for his area of responsibility. defenseone.com
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta speaks at a CSIS invitation-only event on a new strategy for countering violent extremism. csis.org
5 p.m. 701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments holds an event talking about the future of amphibious warfare. csbaonline.org
WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 16
7:15 a.m. 1250 S. Hayes St., Arlington, Va. Maj. Gen. Christopher Owens, the director of expeditionary warfare, speaks at a Navy League breakfast event. navyleague.org
9 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation releases its annual 2017 Index of U.S. Military Strength, which includes a speech from Rep. Michael Turner. heritage.org
9 a.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Capitol Hill and Pentagon officials talk about how to make counterterrorism security assistance more effective. cnas.org
12 p.m. Rayburn B-369. Analysts from the Cato Institute discuss the state of world affairs and if funding shortfalls have hampered the U.S. military. cato.org
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 17
7:15 a.m. 901 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Defense One hosts its annual summit featuring Army Secretary Eric Fanning and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein. defenseone.com
