NO WIDER INVOLVEMENT IN YEMEN: The Obama administration says it has no intention of getting more deeply involved in the civil war in Yemen, and that yesterday’s U.S. cruise missile strike on Yemen’s coastal defense radars was solely for the purpose of defending U.S. ships in the Red Sea and dissuading any future attacks. At the Pentagon, spokesman Peter Cook said if any more anti-ship missiles are fired at ships in international waters near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the U.S. will strike back again. “Hopefully the message has been sent to those who fired these missiles that there’ll be response from us,” Cook said. “The wiser move on their part would be to refrain from targeting U.S. warships and putting our forces at risk.”
In fact, the U.S. is moving to disengage itself from the Saudi-led air campaign that is trying — so far unsuccessfully — to bomb Houthi rebels into submission, but instead is racking up thousands of civilian deaths. The Washington Post, quoting a senior U.S. official, reports this morning that future U.S. military assistance to Saudi Arabia will hinge partly on whether the Saudis embrace a U.S.-backed cease-fire with the Houthis.
Sen. John McCain issued a statement yesterday praising the performance of the U.S. Navy crews in response to the threat. “Thanks to the successful strikes carried out in response by the USS Nitze, the United States Navy has delivered a strong message that aggression of this kind will not be tolerated.” But he also blamed what he called the chaos engulfing the Middle East, on a failure of President Obama’s leadership. “Over the past eight years, American leadership in the region has diminished, leaving a vacuum that has been filled by the most anti-American forces: terrorist groups like ISIL and al-Qaeda, the Iranian regime and its proxies like the Houthi rebels and Hezbollah, the murderous Assad regime in Syria, and the neo-imperial ambitions of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
IRAN: VILLAIN OR VICTIM? McCain is just one of many national security leaders who suspect Iran may have played a role in the cruise missile attacks on the U.S. warships, but the Pentagon offered no evidence of Iranian involvement. It does appear the shore-launched anti-ship missiles were an Iranian version of a Chinese missile, but it also appears the coastal defenses were part of the arsenal of the Yemeni government that were captured by the Houthis. Iran seemed to be signaling that it, too, could face a threat, by dispatching two warships to the waters off Yemen, with the stated purpose of protecting “the country’s trade vessels against piracy in the unsafe zone.”
WHO ARE THE HOUTHIS AGAIN? It’s hard to keep the players straight in this area. There’s Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Houthis, the elected government of Yemen, al-Qaida in Arabian Peninsula, and of course the United States. We help you sort it out with a quick-read primer on who’s who in the conflict.
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.
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PLACE YOUR BETS: Byron Callan, a defense industry expert with Capital Alpha Partners, said in a note on Thursday that there’s only a 20 percent chance that Congress completes a fiscal 2017 budget before the current continuing resolution expires on Dec. 9. He also predicts 35 percent odds that a deal will be completed in January or February, 40 percent odds that it slips even further to March or April and 5 percent chance that the Pentagon is stuck with a full-year CR, which officials have slammed since it prevents the start of any new programs in fiscal 2017.
PLANES TO IRAN: Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran might be making it easier for the rogue regime to fly weapons into Syria, a group of Republican senators warned. Obama’s team agreed to allow major airplane manufacturers to sell almost 200 airplanes to Iran Air, an airline that had been under sanction for transporting weapons on behalf of terrorists, Joel Gehrke writes. The company may still be doing so, given that Iran Air planes are flying the supply routes used to send military supplies to Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. But it’s also possible that other Iranian airlines that remain sanctioned will use the plans to transports weapons.
“To date, we have seen no proof of a change in the conduct that prompted the initial sanctions on Iran Air,” Sen. David Perdue and four other senators wrote in a letter to a senior Treasury Department official. “In fact, we have seen evidence to the contrary. Open source reports have shown that Iran Air continues to fly from known IRGC bases in Iran to Syria. While Mahan Air — which remains under U.S. sanctions — has been the primary airline for sending military supplies and personnel to Syria, Iran Air has flown dozens of similar routes.”
COZYING UP TO RUSSIA: Turkey reopening a bid for its missile defense system to Russia to rebuild its relationship with the Kremlin could signal that it is no longer interested in being a NATO member, experts said. “Here we are having Russia poking the eye of various European neighbors and other NATO allies. If Turkey decides in the midst of all that to get in bed with Russia on missile and air defense, it would make the next NATO summit sort of like an awkward Thanksgiving dinner,” Tom Karako from the Center for Strategic and International Studies told us.
Two U.S. companies paired up to compete for the bid the first time in 2013. Analysts said they expect Raytheon and Lockheed Martin to be part of the bidding process for what could be a $4 billion contract this time around as well.
“HEIRS OF KGB” The Senate Intelligence Committee’s ranking Democrat said Thursday that she holds Russia responsible for the hacking of an email account held by Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta, saying it was perpetrated by “heirs of the KGB,” Rudy Takala writes. “Based on media reports I have seen and briefings I have received, I can only conclude that the Russian government is attempting to interfere in our election with the goal of electing Donald Trump,” California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said in a statement.
PUNKED OR HOAX?: Newsweek, citing a Serbian magazine interview with Donald Trump, reported Trump had apologized for the U.S. bombing of Serbia in the 1990s, but Trump’s campaign said the original reporting is a “hoax” and that no such interview with the Serbian weekly magazine Nedeljnik ever took place. Trump was alleged to have said “The bombing of Serbs, who were our allies in both world wars, was a big mistake,” and that, “Serbians are very good people. Unfortunately, the Clinton administration caused them a lot of harm, but also throughout the Balkans, which they made a mess out of.”
Jason Miller, Trump’s senior comms adviser, said the campaign looks forward to receiving “a formal retraction and apology.” Newsweek says the Serbian magazine Nedeljnik “published two posts in Serbian on Thursday that appeared to suggest it was investigating.”
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER OPEN LETTER: This time, it’s former nuclear missileers who say Trump shouldn’t be anywhere near the button, Anna Giaritelli writes. “He has shown himself time and again to be easily baited and quick to lash out, dismissive of expert consultation and ill-informed of even basic military and international affairs — including, most especially, nuclear weapons,” the letter from 10 former nuclear launch control officers states. “Donald Trump should not be the nation’s commander-in-chief. He should not be entrusted with the nuclear launch codes. He should not have his finger on the button.”
PRESIDENT McMULLIN? Evan McMullin, the former CIA operative with a more mainstream Republican platform who has largely been written off by just about everyone as the darkest of dark horses, could actually win the presidency, says the data-crunching website fivethirtyeight.com. The odds are extremely low, but not zero. McMullin, a Mormon, is polling strongly in Utah, where he’s a close third behind Trump and Clinton. If he wins Utah’s six electoral votes, and that denies Clinton and Trump the necessary 270, the election is thrown into the House, where in theory McMullin could be the compromise choice. Under the 12th amendment to the Constitution each state gets one vote, and can pick only from the top three vote-getters, so there could also be a challenge of whether that provision applies to popular vote or electoral votes. Like everything else this year, it’s complicated.
STEALTH DESTROYER: Check out this cool video of the soon-to-be-USS Zumwalt leaving General Dynamics Bath Iron Works in preparation for her commissioning this weekend in Baltimore.
COOK TIMER: We still await the day when we can report the Pentagon briefing by Press Secretary Peter Cook started right on time. Yesterday was not that day. Although seven minutes late is getting closer.
THE RUNDOWN:
Defense News: Lockheed Reveals GBSD Partners; Northrop, Boeing Silent
Defense One: Got Something to Sell to the Pentagon? It’s About to Get Easier
C4ISRNET: What are U.S. officials saying about a potential NSA-CYBERCOM split?
UPI: USS Nimitz completes sea trials
Stars and Stripes: Aegis defense system helped stop missile attack on USS Mason
Wall Street Journal: Houthi Rebels in Yemen Condemn U.S. Attack on Radar Sites
Marine Corps Times: Mattis talks about leadership in inspiring new video
Defense News: 22 US House Democrats Press Obama to Adopt ‘No-First-Use’ Nuclear Weapons Policy
Associated Press: Syria activists say more than 65 killed in 3 days in Aleppo
Wall Street Journal: Europe’s Ties With Russia Fray in Face of Moscow’s Role in Aleppo Bombing
CNN: Russia’s role in election under growing scrutiny
Associated Press: Clinton says US could ‘ring China with missile defense’
Wall Street Journal: Seoul Questions Own Defense Strategy as North Korea Nuclear Threat Grows
Military.com: Neller Tells Okinawa Marines They Must Adapt for New Adversaries
Associated Press: Gen. Mark Milley, other soldiers provide aid after deadly Metrobus crash in D.C.
Calendar
MONDAY | OCTOBER 17
10:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, talks about his new book, Ike’s Gamble: America’s Rise to Dominance in the Middle East. brookings.edu
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Officials will talk about remaining priorities for the U.S. while it holds rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council. atlanticcouncil.org
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 18
8 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Retired Gen. Michael Hayden, the former head of the CIA, speaks at the start of a morning event on cybersecurity challenges for the next administration. heritage.org
8:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Think tank experts discuss how the Pentagon can develop alternative defense strategies. csbaonline.org
8:30 a.m. Albuquerque, NM. CSIS hosts the second of a two-part Project on Nuclear Issues conference. All speakers and presentations are off-the-record. csis.org
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. NSA Deputy National Manager for National Security Systems Curt Dukes gives an update on the U.S. cyber defenses. aei.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former service leaders discuss how to use public-private partnerships to invest in defense infrastructure. csis.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Adm. Kurt Tidd, the commander of U.S. Southern Command, talks about maritime security. csis.org
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. and Mexican military officials, as well as think tank analysts, discuss the evolving military relationship between the U.S. and Mexico. wilsoncenter.org
12 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Former B-2 bomber pilots speak about the importance of long-range strike capabilities on the 15th anniversary of the longest bombing run. mitchellaerospacepower.org
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 19
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council presents its new paper on a 10-year plan for U.S.-Iran relations. atlanticcouncil.org
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Retired Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff, the former deputy supreme allied commander for Europe, talks about whether armed conflict with Russia is a real possibility. brookings.edu
4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts talks about the cybersecurity threats facing the upcoming presidential election. atlanticcouncil.org
