Daily on Defense — Nov. 14, 2016 — ISIS secrets and mysteries

THE ISIS MYSTERY: President-elect Trump’s secret plan to destroy the Islamic State remains a mystery, including what he really thinks about America’s top military commanders who are prosecuting the war against the terrorist group. In last-night’s wide-ranging interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes,” Trump told Leslie Stahl in one breath that “We have some great generals. We have great generals.” And then when Stahl reminded him that he claimed to know more than the generals about ISIS, Trump quickly changed tack. “I probably do because look at the job they’ve done. They haven’t done the job.” When Stahl pressed Trump for details on how the strategy to defeat the Islamic State might change, Trump reverted to campaign mode. “I’m not going to say anything. I don’t want to tell them anything. I don’t want to tell anybody anything. I’m not like the people going in right now and fighting Mosul and they announced it four months before they went into Mosul and everybody now is — it’s a tough fight because, number one, the people from the leaders of ISIS have left.”

FOREIGN RELATIONS: In that interview, Trump said he has been inundated with congratulatory calls from world leaders from countries large and small. “Every major leader and probably less than major leader has called me. I’ve spoken to many of them and I’ll call the rest of them, but — and I said, ‘Boy, this really shows you how powerful our country is,’ ” Trump told CBS.

Chinese State media reports that in a phone call today, Beijing time, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Trump that cooperation was the only choice for relations between the world’s two largest economies. According to Reuters, Trump was quoted as saying there was a “clear sense of mutual respect” between the two leaders. During the primary campaign, Trump famously accused China of “raping” the United States and of what he called “the greatest theft in the history of the world.”

Meanwhile Trump’s reported meeting with Nigel Farage, the leader of Great Britain’s right-wing UK Independence Party over the weekend, ruffled some feathers across the pond, since Farage jumped the queue ahead of British Prime Minister Theresa May. Upon his return, Farage spoke to London’s Daily Telegraph, relating that he offered to “provide introductions and to start the necessary process of mending fences.”

NO ROLL-BACK? A clue to Trump’s thinking about social issues in the military may be found in his answer to the question of how he feels about same-sex marriage. In the “60 Minutes” segment, Trump was asked about his position on marriage equality and he said he considered the matter settled. Trump was not asked about whether he might be inclined to roll back any of the Pentagon’s new rules about women in combat or LGBT troops, but his answer to the question of marriage equality signaled no appetite for reopening the issue. “It’s irrelevant because it was already settled. It’s law. It was settled in the Supreme Court. I mean, it’s done,” Trump said about same-sex marriage. “I’m fine with that.”

WALL OR FENCE? And when it comes to protecting Americans from illegal immigrants, Trump also indicated some flexibility, saying some parts of his “beautiful wall” could in fact be a fence. And that a decision regarding the deportation of millions of people living in the United States illegally would come only after the border has been secured, and some two to three million “criminals, gang members, and drug dealers” were sent home, or incarcerated. “We’re going to make a determination on the people that you’re talking about who are terrific people. They’re terrific people, but we are going to make a determination at that, but before we make that determination,” Trump said. “It’s very important — we want to secure our border.” He also promised, “We want to have a great immigration bill.”

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HAPPENING TODAY: This morning, the Service Women’s Action Network is releasing the results of its first ever survey of nearly 1,000 female troops and veterans on challenges facing them, including whether female vets would recommend military service to other women and what obstacles women in uniform face when trying to climb the ranks. Women make up a growing percentage of the veteran population, but often face issues such as access to women’s healthcare at Veterans Affairs medical facilities, as well as a public perception that they do not fit the typical profile of a veteran.

INSIDER ATTACK IN AFGHANISTAN: Four Americans — two service members and two contractors — were killed in a suicide bombing at Bagram Airfield early Saturday morning local time. The base, which houses some 14,000 Americans is now on a very tight lockdown, as the U.S. tries to figure how someone, believed to be a local Afghan worker, got a suicide vest through the base’s multi-level security checks. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the investigation will determine what happened and how to prevent others like it.

AYOTTE FOR SECDEF? In his “60 Minutes” interview Trump said he has made some decisions about who will be in his Cabinet, but gave no hint of his thinking. Meanwhile, reports suggest defeated Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., has been added to Trump’s list for secretary of defense, despite her refusal to endorse Trump during the campaign. Other names you keep hearing for Pentagon chief slot are retired Army Lt. Gen. Joseph “Keith” Kellogg and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions. Ayotte lost her re-election battle to New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan by fewer than 800 votes, opening her up for a job offer, especially in light of her military family background and inclusion on the Armed Services Committee, but she also indicated during the campaign she would not vote for Trump, and would instead write in Mike Pence.  

MEETINGS WITH WORLD LEADERS BEGIN: President-elect Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe next Thursday at the request of the foreign leader, who is likely anxious to discuss the Trans-Pacific Partnership and America’s relationship with Japan with the incoming Republican president, Gabby Morrongiello reports. Abe spoke with Trump by phone Wednesday night after his upset victory in Tuesday’s presidential election. Trump has also extended an invitation to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to meet with him in the U.S.

OTHER LEADERS STILL REACTING: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged President-elect Trump not to “abandon” the western military alliance in a piece he wrote for the Observer, published this weekend. “This is no time to question the value of the partnership between Europe and the United States,” Stoltenberg wrote. Trump often railed against NATO over the course of his campaign, calling it “very obsolete” and expensive. While Trump did say he would look at having the U.S. leave NATO, his actual plan to address the alliance remains unclear. He also said that if the U.S. were to remain involved, its role would be due for a change.

At the same time, Turkey has issued a travel warning to its citizens who are thinking about traveling to the U.S. in response to a wave of demonstrations in large cities protesting the election. In a statement posted to the Foreign Ministry’s website Saturday, the Turkish government warned, “Sometimes the protests turn violent and criminal while protesters (are) detained by security forces” and that “racists and xenophobic incidents increased in USA.”

WALKING IT BACK: Trump on Sunday tweeted that he had “never said” that more countries should acquire nuclear weapons. But saying things on camera makes them more difficult to deny. “Wouldn’t you rather in a certain sense have Japan have nuclear weapons when North Korea has nuclear weapons?” Trump said during a CNN town hall in March. As Kingston Reif, director for Disarmament and Threat Reduction Policy at the Arms Control Association, replied on Twitter: “Well you did [say it] but it would be a good thing if you changed your mind!”

iTRUMP?: Trump’s administration will likely want to keep up Carter’s outreach to Silicon Valley in an effort to innovate and bring the best technology possible into the Pentagon, but it’s unclear if left-leaning tech execs will be willing to embrace the president-elect, whose comments on the campaign trail may have discouraged the best talent from across the world from coming to work in the U.S. “It’s a tough sell to convince sometimes these bright minds that it’s a good idea to work with the Pentagon,” said Michael Hoffman, director of marketing for Tandem National Security Innovations, which tries to bridge the gap between innovators and the federal government. “My initial sense is it just got a little bit harder.”

BUSH’S NEW BOOK: Amid the upheaval of transitioning a new president into the White House, former President George W. Bush is keeping up with his painting. He’ll be releasing a new book early next year containing portraits and stories of wounded veterans who were wounded “carrying out my orders.” From the photo Bush posted on Facebook, his painting skills have improved considerably over the eight years since he left the White House.

ONE YEAR LATER: Sunday marked one year since the Islamic State attacks throughout Paris that killed 130 people. Lisa Monaco, President Obama’s assistant for homeland security and counterterrorism, said the U.S. still stands with the people of Paris and that the fight against ISIS has shown “significant results” since then.

THE RUNDOWN

Politico: Defense lobbyists deluged in wake of Trump victory

Military Times: Will Donald Trump’s Pentagon reverse Obama’s women-in-combat rules?

Associated Press: EU awaits Trump team to assess future of trans-Atlantic ties

The Globalist: Suspicious Iranian Dealings Could Imperil Nuclear Agreement

Washington Post: This retired Army general was a scholar and acolyte of David Petraeus. Now he’s on Team Trump.

Breaking Defense: Van Hipp Top SecArmy Pick; Hoekstra For DNI?

Military Times: Michelle Obama’s signature military initiative faces an uncertain future under Donald Trump

Commentary Magazine: Is Defense a Priority for Trump?

Minneapolis Star-Tribune: All eyes on Minnesota federal judge before sentencing in nation’s biggest ISIL recruitment case

Washington Post: Army Special Forces soldiers killed in Jordan were working for the CIA

New York Times: Syrian Rebels Brace for a Trump Cutoff, and Look for a Silver Lining

CNN: Aleppo residents get warning by text message: You have 24 hours to leave

Wall Street Journal: Iraqis Push Deeper Into Islamic State’s Mosul Stronghold

Defense One: Unmanned Hueys Are Coming

Calendar

MONDAY | NOVEMBER 14

11 a.m. 1133 15th St. NW. Defense Secretary Ash Carter talks with The Atlantic’s editor in chief about the state of the military and his emphasis on innovation. theatlantic.com

1 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of think tank experts undertakes a pathgame in which violence breaks out after mobile communications are cut. atlanticcouncil.org

TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 15

8 a.m. 805 21st St. NW. Former Navy Secretary Jim Webb delivers the keynote at a conference on foreign policy under President-elect Trump. theamericanconservative.com

9:30 a.m. 600 New Hampshire Ave. NW. Adm. Harry Harris, the commander of U.S. Pacific Command, talks about what’s next for his area of responsibility. defenseone.com

11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of experts talks about foreign policy expectations of President-elect Donald Trump. wilsoncenter.org

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta speaks at a CSIS invitation-only event on a new strategy for countering violent extremism. csis.org

5 p.m. 701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments holds an event talking about the future of amphibious warfare. csbaonline.org

WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 16

7:15 a.m. 1250 S. Hayes St., Arlington, Va. Maj. Gen. Christopher Owens, the director of expeditionary warfare, speaks at a Navy League breakfast event. navyleague.org

9 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation releases its annual 2017 Index of U.S. Military Strength. The event includes a speech from Rep. Michael Turner. heritage.org

9 a.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Capitol Hill and Pentagon officials talk about how to make counterterrorism security assistance more effective. cnas.org

12 p.m. Rayburn B-369. Analysts from the Cato Institute discuss the state of world affairs and whether funding shortfalls have hampered the U.S. military. cato.org

THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 17

7:15 a.m. 901 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Defense One hosts its annual summit featuring Army Secretary Eric Fanning and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein. defenseone.com

8:30 a.m. Livestream. House Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Rep. Adam Smith speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations. cfr.org

9:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts an event on the next administration’s relationship with Taiwan. heritage.org

3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Richard Stengel, the State Department’s undersecretary for public diplomacy and public affairs, talks about national security under Obama’s administration. csis.org

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