ANOTHER STERN WARNING: Hesitant to spark a wider war in the Middle East, the United States and its coalition of willing partners have issued another warning to Houthi rebels in Yemen to cease their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
The joint statement by 13 countries cited “a significant escalation over the past week targeting commercial vessels, with missiles, small boats, and attempted hijackings,” which it calls “illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing.”
“The Houthis will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways,” the statement said in a veiled threat of military strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
“The United States does not seek conflict with any nation or actor in the Middle East, nor do we want to see the war between Israel and Hamas widen in the region,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at the White House Wednesday. “But neither will we shrink from the task of defending ourselves, our interests, our partners, or the free flow of international commerce.”
MIDDLE EAST POWDER KEG THREATENS TO EXPLODE AFTER BEIRUT HAMAS STRIKE AND IRAN BLAS
ESPER: BIDEN RESPONSE ‘A MISTAKE’: Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper told the Washington Examiner he thinks the Biden administration’s overly cautious response to the Houthi attacks is “very insufficient” and “a mistake.”
“The Biden administration has this mistaken fear that if somehow we respond and take out the Houthi launch sites or missile inventories, somehow it will escalate in the region, and my view is just the opposite,” Esper said in an interview with Washington Examiner Defense Reporter Mike Brest. “My view is if you don’t strike back and get rid of their capability to attack, then they’re going to continue to escalate, and at some point, they’re going to sink a ship, or they’re going to kill an American, injure an American — who knows? But I think you risk more escalation.”
Despite the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a maritime force of more than 20 nations designed to protect commercial shipping in the region, almost all shipping companies are avoiding the Red Sea route, according to a map published by Bloomberg.
“The Red Sea is a vital waterway, and a significant amount of global trade flows through that Red Sea,” said Kirby. “By forcing nations to go around the Cape of Good Hope, you’re adding weeks and weeks onto voyages and untold resources. Expenses have to be applied in order to do that. Plus, it’s just a more dangerous journey.”
‘THE SITUATION’S GOTTEN WORSE’: ESPER WARNS US HOUTHI RESPONSE ‘VERY INSUFFICIENT’
FORCES IN THE REGION: The U.S. has amassed a significant force in the region should Biden decide to act on contingency plans now being drawn up by the Pentagon.
The maritime force includes the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower with its embarked air wing of some 80 aircraft, along with its attendant ships, which comprise a carrier strike group. Replacing the USS Gerald R. Ford, which is returning from an extended deployment, is a three-ship Marine amphibious ready group in the eastern Mediterranean, led by the assault ship USS Bataan.
The Marine task force includes more than 4,000 sailors and Marines and more than 50 aircraft.
“These ships and their Marines are augmented by three additional squadrons of fighter and attack aircraft that are based ashore and additional highly capable warships at sea, including a number of destroyers that are specifically designed for ballistic missile defense,” said Kirby. “These U.S. and coalition ships and aircraft contribute to … an impressive air and missile defense capability, as well as robust intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities, not to mention offensive and defensive military power.”
RED SEA ATTACKS SEND OIL PRICES HIGHER OVER FEARS OF SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS
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NATO PASSES THE HAT: With additional U.S. aid for Ukraine stalled in Congress and Ukraine exhausting its inventory of air defense missiles in the face of Russia’s recent onslaught of missile and drone attacks, NATO is pledging to replenish Ukraine’s dwindling supply of Patriot missiles.
“NATO’s Support and Procurement Agency will support a coalition of Allies, including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain to procure up to 1,000 Patriot missiles to strengthen their air defenses,” NATO said in a statement Wednesday. “The contract will expand the European production of the missiles, enhancing supply and ensuring the replenishment of Allied stockpiles.”
But the ammunition for Ukraine’s most effective anti-aircraft system won’t arrive anytime soon, given that it’s a $5.5 billion contract for Raytheon and the German company MBDA to stand up a new production facility for Patriot missiles in Germany.
“Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and the brutal way he has waged the war there, has served as a wake-up call for many European governments when it comes to air and missile defense,” analyst Bradley Bowman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Daily on Defense in an email. “There is a huge gap between the fielded air and missile defense capacity our European allies have and the capacity they need. But closing that gap will require sustained political will and time.”
ZELENSKY’S 2024 STRATEGY: In a New Year’s interview with the Economist, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted at a change in strategy after the disappointing 2023 counteroffensive failed to produce substantial territorial gains.
“The war in 2024, this is the new page,” Zelensky said. “We have one strategy goal, to de-occupy our territories. To be on the borders of our country. Our goals didn’t change. The goal is to save and to have more successful steps in the Black Sea, to continue success on Crimea, on the south. I can’t tell you the details, but we will do it.”
Zelensky says to make Crimea untenable for Russian occupiers, he needs longer-range missiles, such as the U.S. ATACMS or the German Taurus missiles, which would give Ukraine the capability of dropping the 12-mile Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea to Russia. “Russia has to know that for us, this is a military object,” Zelensky said.
“Ukraine armed with ATACMS and/or TAURUS would be able to reach every square meter of Russian-occupied Ukraine,” retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe, posted on X. “No Russian HQ or rocket launcher or ammunition storage site would be safe. No Russian ship would be safe. It’s only our lack of political will that stops this.”
Zelensky continues to frame the war as the defense of Europe and democracy. “We are all part of all this war,” he said. “Giving us money or giving us weapons, you support yourself. Ukrainians are fighting for the world.”
Responding to reports that the U.S. Army is sitting on hundreds of ATACMS whose rocket motors are expired or nearly expired, which could be sent to Ukraine with no effect on U.S. readiness, the White House had no comment.
“I cannot confirm those reports. That’s really a better question put to the Department of Defense,” said Kirby.
RUSSIA AND UKRAINE SWAP HUNDREDS OF PRISONERS
US DENIES KNOWLEDGE OF OR INVOLVEMENT IN IRAN AND LEBANON ATTACKS: The U.S. is distancing itself from two explosive events in the Middle East. In Iran, at least 95 people were killed when bombs went off during a gathering to mourn the death of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone in Iraq in 2020.
And in Beirut, Lebanon, an airstrike from a drone killed Saleh Arouri, a senior Hamas member, along with his top lieutenants.
“Our hearts go out to all the innocent victims and their family members who are obviously — their lives are going to be forever changed by this,” Kirby said of the bombings in the Iranian city of Kerman. “But we don’t have any more detail in terms of how it happened or who might be responsible for it.”
“We certainly had no indications that there would be some sort of violence surrounding the anniversary of his death,” Kirby said. “I would just tell you that we have no indication that Israel was in any way involved in this.
BOMBINGS NEAR SOLEIMANI’S GRAVE LIKELY A TERRORIST ATTACK IN ISIS MOLD, US OFFICIAL SAYS
‘NOBODY SHOULD BE SHEDDING A TEAR’: As for the drone strike that killed Arouri, Kirby said, “We’re, again, not in a position to confirm the specific reports. I would just tell you that al Arouri was a noted, designated global terrorist. And if he is in fact dead, nobody should be shedding a tear over his loss.”
“Any senior member of Hamas who was involved in the planning of October 7th and the brutal murder of 1,200 Israelis has a relatively short lifespan,” said Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT) on CNN. “The Israelis will not rest until the leaders of that brutal terrorist attack are gone. And so I don’t know whether this was an Israeli strike, but we do know what the future of an awful lot of these Hamas leaders are.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Middle East powder keg threatens to explode after Beirut Hamas strike and Iran blast
Washington Examiner: Red Sea attacks send oil prices higher over fears of shipping disruptions
Washington Examiner: ‘The situation’s gotten worse’: Esper warns US Houthi response ‘very insufficient’
Washington Examiner: Navy’s largest aircraft carrier returning to US after extended deployment in Middle East
Washington Examiner: Biden official resigns over administration’s handling of war in Gaza
Washington Examiner: House Republicans find border crisis ‘stopped’ in Eagle Pass after cartels halt operations
Washington Examiner: Biden ‘absolutely’ has confidence in Mayorkas in face of border surge and impeachment
Washington Examiner: Bombings near Soleimani’s grave likely a terrorist attack in ISIS mold, US official says
Washington Examiner: US and allies warn Israel against displacement of Palestinians from Gaza
Washington Examiner: Hezbollah leader Nasrallah warns killing of Hamas official in Lebanon ‘will not go unanswered or unpunished’
Washington Examiner: Russia and Ukraine swap hundreds of prisoners
Washington Examiner: US intelligence community ‘confident’ in assessment Hamas held hostages at Shifa Hospital
Washington Examiner: Iran explosions: Country claims 103 killed at event honoring dead Gen. Qassem Soleimani
Washington Examiner: Navy’s largest aircraft carrier returning to US after extended deployment in Middle East
Washington Examiner: ‘Squad’ Democrats attack Biden over decision to bypass Congress to sell weapons to Israel
Washington Examiner: Opinion: What China may have learned from Pearl Harbor
AP: Israel’s Mossad chief vows to hunt down Hamas members a day after senior figure killed in strike
The Hill: Former NATO Chief Pushes Biden For ‘More Aggressive’ Response To Houthi Attacks
AP: US again renews protection for former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and top aide over Iran threats
AP: Taiwan reports China sent 4 suspected spy balloons over the island, some near key air force base
Reuters: China Conducts Patrols In South China Sea Amid Ongoing Run-Ins
Yonhap: N. Korea Likely Aims To Raise Military Tensions To Secure Nuclear Power Status: Expert
Yonhap: S. Korea, U.S. troops hold joint firing drills near border with N. Korea
Wall Street Journal: Surge in Drone Warfare Leads Pentagon to Open School for US Troops
USNI News: Navy Flag Officers Start To Take Command After Confirmations Backlog Cleared
Defense One: Flight Recorder Found as Pentagon Investigates Deadly Osprey Crash
DefenseScoop: Aurora Flight Sciences Begins Manufacturing X-65 Drone for DARPA
Breaking Defense: Bombardier Awarded Army Prototyping Contract for HADES Spy Plane
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Gives Raytheon $345 Million to Build 1,500+ New StormBreaker Guided Bombs
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Proposes Upgrades on Guam to Host Dozen Singaporean F-15s for Training
Air & Space Forces Magazine: How the Air Force Can Avoid or Mitigate Another Personnel Funding Shortfall
Defense.info: How can the U.S. Political Class build Trust with Young Americans?.
Military.com: Barracks Repairs, Other Military Quality-of-Life Improvements Slam into Congress’ Upcoming Budget Fight
Military Times: New System to Improve Shipments of Troops’ Household Goods Delayed
Forbes: Opinion: Next-Gen Interceptor Is Pentagon’s Only Option For Defeating Future North Korean ICBMs
Calendar
THURSDAY | JANUARY 4
9 a.m. — Air & Space Warfighters in Action virtual fireside chat with Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force JoAnne Bass; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Bruce “Orville” Wright, AFA president and CEO https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
4:30 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: “Gaza War Update,” with retired IDF Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, JINSA distinguished fellow; and Ari Cicurel, JINSA’s assistant director of foreign policy https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | JANUARY 5
1 p.m. — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Schriever Spacepower Series,” with Space Force Lt. Gen. DeAnna Burt, deputy chief of space operations for operations, cyber, and nuclear; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, explorer chairman of the Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
MONDAY | JANUARY 8
2 p.m. — The U.S. Senate returns with a long list of unfinished business, including a deal on increasing security at the U.S.-Mexico border, a $110 billion aid package for Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel, and avoiding another looming government shutdown.
TUESDAY | JANUARY 9
The House of Representatives returns.
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 10
9 p.m. Des Moines, Iowa — Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) take part in a Republican presidential primary debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, hosted by CNN and moderated by anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash https://www.cnn.com
THURSDAY | JANUARY 11
10 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project invites webinar: “Spying, Extorting and Filtering – How The Houthis Control Telecommunications In Yemen,” with Yemen specialist Ari Heistein, author of the CEP report series; Edmund Fitton-Brown, CEP senior adviser; and Hans-Jakob Schindler, CEP senior director https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | JANUARY 12
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group virtual discussion: “Security in the Western Pacific: Building Future Capabilities in the Time of AUKUS,” with retired Marine Col. Mark Cancian, senior adviser, CSIS International Security Program; Charles Edel, CSIS senior adviser and Australia chairman; Becca Wasser, Senior fellow, Defense Program and lead of The Gaming Lab at the Center for a New American Security; and retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director, Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation and senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies https://www.csis.org/events/security-western-pacific
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We don’t have plan B. We’re confident in plan A. Ukraine will always fight with the resources available to it.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an interview with CNN on Wednesday.
