Finally some finality, but ISIS lives to fight on

TV reports showed, however, that airstrikes and ground fire were still underway at ISIS’s last redoubt in Baghouz. “It appears that this may be the beginning of the final, final, final battle,” said a helmeted Ben Wedeman on CNN as tracer fire could be seen behind him. “The fight is not over.”

But by Saturday, the U.S.-backed Syrian forces had hoisted their yellow flag over what was left of Baghouz, and the U.S.-led coalition issued a statement congratulating the Syrian Democratic Forces for “the liberation of the remaining civilians under Daesh [ISIS] control.”

IT’S ALL OVER BUT THE FIGHTING: “The end of the so-called physical caliphate is a historic military accomplishment that brought together the largest Coalition in history, but the fight against Daesh and violent extremism is far from over,” said Lt. Gen. Paul LaCamera, the commander of Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve.

“Make no mistake, Daesh is preserving their force,” LaCamera said. “They have made calculated decisions to preserve what is left of their dwindling personnel and capabilities by taking their chances in camps for internally displaced persons and going to ground in remote areas. They are waiting for the right time to reemerge.”

BUT THEY’RE ‘LOSERS’: Even as he took full credit for the destruction of the caliphate, President Trump acknowledged on Twitter that ISIS will try to make a comeback and will use social media.

“ISIS uses the internet better than almost anyone, but for all of those susceptible to ISIS propaganda, they are now being beaten badly at every level,” Trump tweeted Friday. “There is nothing to admire about them, they will always try to show a glimmer of vicious hope, but they are losers and barely breathing. Think about that before you destroy your lives and the lives of your family!”

BAGHDADI STILL AT LARGE: When the final ISIS enclave was cleared, there was some hope that the group’s elusive leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi would be captured or killed. But ISIS leaders have a pattern of getting out of Dodge before it’s too late, leaving lower-level ISIS fighters to fight to the death. That ISIS still has its leaders, much of its money, and thousands of fighters who have gone to ground makes the group a potent threat to wage a deadly insurgency for years to come.

“What we will see in both Iraq and Syria in the months to come will be extensive mop-up operations to try to eliminate those elements that have gone to ground, that will organize in sleeper cells and so on to continue the attack,” said retired Marine Gen. John Allen on Face the Nation on CBS yesterday “They have not given up one iota of their narrative or their objectives. And we’re going to see that the — we have to eliminate that — that threat on the ground.

As for Baghdadi, “We’ll get him.”

READY TO GO BACK?: Allen, who is president of the Brookings Institution, is a former U.S. Afghanistan commander and special presidential envoy to the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, back when the terrorist group was called ISIL. He was also a public supporter of Hillary Clinton during the 2016 election.

He’s not sold on Trump’s plan to pull all but 400 troops out of Syria. “The president is right to want to bring them home, but they were overseeing the essential next phase of this, which is the stabilization of the population,” Allen said on CBS. “Are we prepared to go back and fight again? We’ve been in Iraq now twice because once we came out too early, and the second time we went back because we didn’t finish the job.”

THE FIGHT CONTINUES: “We understand our work is far from complete,” said Shanahan in a statement Saturday. “As the [Defeat]-ISIS campaign in northeast Syria transitions from liberating territory to enabling local security and preventing resurgent ISIS networks, we will continue to work by, with, and through our partners and allies to enable stabilization efforts.”

“Going forward, the U.S. military remains committed to working closely with our Coalition and regional partners to ensure the lasting defeat of ISIS,” said Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford.

“Our mission there hasn’t changed,” said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo while in Lebanon over the weekend. “We still have work to do to make sure that radical Islamic terrorism doesn’t continue to grow.”

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is cutting short his visit to the United States after a rocket attack near Tel Aviv wounded seven people. Netanyahu only just arrived in Washington yesterday and will turn around and head back after a meeting at the White House today with President Trump.

Netanyahu had been due to address the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC tomorrow. He faces a tough election April 9.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK — CHANGING OF THE GUARD: Later this week we will see new commanders take over at both U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command.

Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Frank McKenzie replaces Army Gen. Joseph Votel at CENTCOM on Thursday, and Army Lt. Gen. Richard Clarke will take command from Army Gen. Raymond Thomas at SOCOM on Friday.

McKenzie, whose first name is Kenneth but who goes by Frank, is a familiar face because he was a regular Pentagon briefer back in the days they did regular briefings. It has been nearly a year since there was a routine, all-topic, on-camera briefing by an official spokesperson.

Over the summer, we will see more change of command ceremonies, as the last of the Obama-era four-star commanders make way for the Trump generals. The president has nominated Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters to be the next Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, of NATO and U.S. European Command head, replacing Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti.

One general who is straddling both administrations is Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, whom Trump has picked to be his Joint Chiefs chairman when Dunford retires in September.

SHANAHAN’S STILL ACTING: There was speculation that when President Trump visited the Pentagon on the Ides of March he might announce his intention to nominate acting secretary Shanahan to fill the job on a more permanent basis. It didn’t happen, though.

Now Politico reports the problem may be that pesky ethics investigation into whether Shanahan violated the spirit of his ethics agreement by badmouthing Lockheed Martin while praising Boeing, his former employer, in private meetings.

Based on Politico’s January reporting of Shanahan’s private rants, the watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington filed a complaint with the Pentagon’s inspector general. “The IG investigation has slowed the process down and there are quite a few of us who want to see the report before moving forward, including President Trump,” a senior White House official told Politico.

Politico also claims “unimpressive” performances by Shahahan at the Munich Security Conference and in testimony before the Senate have “cooled” Trump on Shanahan.

“Trump had been poised to nominate Shanahan after the Munich conference,” Politico said, citing a former Defense Department official and two Republican aides. “And he was prepared to do it again after Shanahan’s appearance before the Senate” but was reportedly unhappy that Shanahan didn’t defend more vigorously his plan to take military construction money to build border barriers.

SHANAHAN’S FOOD TESTER: In an effort to show the lengths Shanahan is going to ensure his Boeing bias is not a factor in any Pentagon decisions, his office released a copy of his Jan. 7 “Screening Arrangement,” which outlines a system in which a “screener” will protect Shanahan from anything that could present a conflict of interest, much as a food tester protects a king from poisoning.

It includes this paragraph of instructions to his chief of staff, executive secretary, military assistants, and other designated administrative assistants:

FIND YOUR LOCAL PROJECT: Last week, I pointed out the work Rick Berger, defense policy and budget analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, did in compiling a list of vulnerable military construction projects that could lose money to Trump’s border wall initiative.

Armed with an updated list of projects provided to Congress by the Pentagon, Berger has refined the list and published an interactive map of the most vulnerable projects. “The list includes new information helpful in narrowing down of the amount of vulnerable projects to only $4.3 billion, meaning that almost all the projects on the list will be defunded, leading to delays, deferrals, and possible cancellations,” Berger says. “Almost all of these military construction projects will be defunded to build the wall.”

DEADLY ATTACK IN AFGHANISTAN: Even as the Taliban holds peace talks with the United States, it continues to mount near-daily attacks on Afghan forces, inflicting staggering casualties. The AP reports that a devastating Taliban attack over the weekend on an army outpost in southern Helmand Province killed 26 soldiers and 7 policemen.

The U.S. government, led by U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad, has been negotiating for months with Taliban representatives in Qatar.

Khalilzad claims that the United States and the Taliban have tentatively agreed on two aspects of a deal: a timeline for U.S. withdrawal from the country and guarantees from the Taliban that foreign terrorists would not be welcome. Many are skeptical of the Taliban’s trustworthiness on following through on its assurances.

US CASUALTIES ID’d: The Pentagon has identified the two U.S. soldiers who died in a firefight with the Taliban last week as Spc. Joseph P. Collette and Sgt. 1st Class Will D. Lindsay.

Both were part of the U.S. counterterrorism mission in Afghanistan, known as Operation Freedom’s Sentinel. Collette, 29, was from Lancaster, Ohio, and assigned to the 242nd Ordnance Battalion, 71st Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group. Lindsay, 33, was from Cortez, Colo., and assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 10th Special Forces Group (Airborne). Both soldiers were based out of Fort Carson, Colo.

AFRICOM TO AID CYCLONE RELIEF: President Trump is authorizing the U.S. military to assist the U.S. Agency for International Development to provide disaster relief to Mozambique, which has been devastated by flooding in the wake of Cyclone Idai.

“U.S. Africa Command is actively monitoring and assessing the situation while positioning assets to support the Government of the Republic of Mozambique,” said Marine Corps Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, head of U.S. Africa Command. “We are actively working with the Department of Defense, interagency partners, and Government of the Republic of Mozambique to provide assistance.”

The Rundown

The Atlantic: All ISIS Has Left Is Money. Lots of It

Wall Street Journal: Islamic State’s Caliphate Is Gone, But Not Its Violent Extremism

AP: Seoul says some N. Korean officials back at liaison office

AP: Swedes keep room ready for US diplomats in Pyongyang

Reuters: Russian air force planes land in Venezuela carrying troops: reports

Military Times: ‘Deploy or get out’ policy may not have forced out any troops at all

New York Times: Women Becoming Marines: ‘I’ Will No Longer Be in Your Vocabulary

Bloomberg: Trickiest U.S. Missile Defense Test Is Finally Ready to Launch

Washington Post: More Boeing problems: Another space vehicle it’s building for NASA is significantly delayed

Reuters: U.S. Navy, Coast Guard ships pass through strategic Taiwan Strait

Stars and Stripes: In Response To Back-To-Back Deadly Collisions, Navy Rethinks Ship Bridges To Help Prevent Future Accidents

Defense News: Pakistan Sends Subtle Messages To India, U.S. With Military Parade

AP: Coast Guard Commissions Ship Named for Slain Petty Officer

Calendar

MONDAY | MARCH 25

1 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Coast Guard Vice Adm. Daniel Abel, deputy commandant for operations, at the Brookings Institution. Panel discussion follows “Securing maritime commerce: The U.S. strategic outlook.” www.brookings.edu

2 p.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. Atlantic Council Global Energy Center panel on “Climate Change & National Security: Protecting Integrity of Threat Assessments.” www.atlanticcouncil.org

5 p.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. Atlantic Council: “5G Networks: The Acquisition Path Forward,” featuring Ellen Lord, under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. www.atlanticcouncil.org

TUESDAY | MARCH 26

8 a.m. Van Braun Center, Huntsville Alabama. Three-day 2019 AUSA ILW Global Force Symposium & Exposition. Speakers include Ryan McCarthy, undersecretary of the Army, Gen. John Murray, U.S. Army Futures Commander, Gen. Robert Brown, U.S. Army Pacific Commander. Full agenda at http://ausameetings.org

8:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. “Overcoming War Legacies: The Road to Reconciliation and Future Cooperation Between the United States and Vietnam.” www.usip.org

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan and Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford testify before the House Armed Services Committee on the Fiscal 2020 DoD budget. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

11 a.m. H-140 Capitol. House Appropriation Subcommittee on Defense Reserve Components. Witnesses: Maj. Gen. Bradley James, commander, Marine Forces Reserve; Gen. Joseph Lengyel, chief, National Guard Bureau; Lt. Gen. Charles Luckey, chief, Army Reserve; Vice Adm. Luke McCollum, chief, Navy Reserve; and Lt. Gen. Richard Scobee, chief, Air Force Reserve. Live-stream at https://youtu.be/Wsx3JrbOaU4

2 p.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces Hearing: Department of the Navy Fiscal Year 2020 budget request. Witnesses: James Guerts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research development and acquisition; Vice Adm. William Merz, deputy chief of naval operations; and Lt. Gen. David Berger, deputy commandant for combat development and integration. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 27

9:30 a.m. SD-G50 Dirksen. Mark Esper, secretary of the Army, and Gen. Mark Milley, chief of staff of the Army, testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee. www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee hearing on “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific.” Witnesses: U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Philip Davidson; U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Robert Abrams; Randall Schriver, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. SR-232A Russell. James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; Vice Adm. William Merz, deputy chief of naval operations for warfare systems; Lt. Gen. David Berger, commanding general, Marine Corps Combat Development Command testify before the Senate Armed Services seapower subcommittee. www.armed-services.senate.gov

2:30 p.m. SR-222 Russell. Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security; Gen. John Raymond, commander, Air Force Space Command; Lt. Gen. John Thompson, commander, Space And Missile Systems Center, Air Force Space Command; and Cristina Chaplain, director, Acquisition And Sourcing Management, Government Accountability Office, testify before the Senate Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee. www.armed-services.senate.gov

4 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing on “Reserve Component Duty Status Reform.” Witnesses: Jeri Bucsh, director, DoD’s Military Compensation Policy Department, Maj. Gen. Mike Taheri, National Guard Bureau director of staff; Patrick Barrett, deputy chief, Navy Reserve; Lt. Gen. Richard Scobee, chief, Air Force Reserve, and Maj. Gen. Bradley James, chief, Marine Corps Reserve. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

THURSDAY | MARCH 28

8 a.m. 1250 S Hayes St. Defense One and Nextgov “Genius Machines Summit” to showcasing government leaders, tech experts, researchers and thought leaders who are shaping the future of artificial intelligence at the Ritz-Carlton – Pentagon City. Among the experts: Lt Gen John “Jack” Shanahan, director, Joint Artificial Intelligence Center at 10:40 a.m. The Ritz-Carlton – Pentagon City. Register here.

10 a.m. 2212 Rayburn. House Armed Services Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee hearing on Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Request for Department of Defense Science and Technology Programs. Witnesses: Michael Griffin, under secretary of defense for research and engineering; Bruce Jette, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology; James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; and William Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing on Fiscal Year 2020 priorities for DoD nuclear activities. Witnesses: David Trachtenberg, deputy under secretary of defense for policy; U.S. Strategic Commander Gen. John Hyten; Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director, Strategic Systems Programs; and Lt. Gen. Richard Clark, deputy chief of staff, strategic deterrence and nuclear integration. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

THURSDAY APRIL 4

10 a.m. 667 K Street N.W. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Book Talk. “The End of Strategic Stability? Nuclear Weapons and the Challenge of Regional Rivalries.” Amb. Eric Edelman, CSBA, and Rebecca Hersman, CSIS, discuss this new volume with the editors, Lawrence Rubin and Adam Stulberg. Register here.