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TURKEY, RUSSIA, IRAN PLOT SYRIA’S FUTURE: Russian President Vladimir Putin is in Turkey today for a two-day visit in which he’ll meet not only with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan but also with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Putin arrives in the driver’s seat after Russia just arranged an evacuation of 1,100 Syrian rebels and their family members from a stronghold in the suburbs of Damascus, a move that will allow the government of Bashar Assad to consolidate control in the eastern Ghouta area of the Syrian capital. The visit underscores the continental drift of Turkey, a NATO ally, toward Moscow and Tehran, both strategic adversaries of the U.S. Along with discussions about the future of Syria, Putin is scheduled to launch the first unit of Turkey’s Akkuyu nuclear power station, which was funded by Russia. It also demonstrates how Putin has been able to sideline the U.S. in Syria SYRIA WINNING, U.S. LOSING: Last month, U.S. Central Commander Gen. Joseph Votel told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the U.S has been outmaneuvered in Syria by Putin. “Is it too strong a statement to say that, with Russia and Iran’s help, Assad has won the civil war in Syria?” asked Sen. Lindsey Graham. “I do not think that is too strong of a statement,” Votel replied. The U.S. military has strict orders to stay out of the Syrian civil war and remain laser-focused on defeating the Islamic State. As Votel pointed out in previous congressional testimony, countering Iran or Russia is not one of the coalition’s missions. “Moscow plays both arsonist and firefighter, fueling tensions among all parties in Syria … then serving as an arbiter to resolve disputes, attempting to undermine and weaken each party’s bargaining positions.” FUMBLING ON THE 2-YARD LINE: Turkey, Iran and Russia are discussing who will control what in Syria, as President Trump has very publicly expressed his frustration with the complex war zone and signaled his intent to leave “very soon” and “let the other people take care of it now.” A National Security Council meeting on Syria is set for today, but Trump’s threat to cut and run is causing deep frustration that’s bordering on anger among U.S. commanders, and undercutting the crucial alliance with the Kurds who have been vanquishing ISIS on the ground. That’s according to an NBC report, which is said to be based on private conversations with more than a half-dozen senior officials. “We’re on the two-yard line. We could literally fall into the end zone. We’re that close to total victory, to wiping out the ISIS caliphate in Syria,” one U.S. special forces commander told NBC. “We’re that close and now it’s coming apart.” The biggest factor forestalling the final death blow for ISIS is Turkey’s offensive into the Kurdish enclave of Afrin in northwest Syria that began in late January, a move that prompted the Kurdish elements of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces to leave the ISIS fight and head home to fight the Turks. DELTA FORCE MISSION: The U.S. and its coalition partners continue to do what they can to keep ISIS, which is down to about 3,000 fighters, from using the confusion to reconstitute. The U.S. military confirmed that Master Sgt. Jonathan Dunbar — identified by sources as a member of Army’s elite Delta Force — was killed on a mission targeting an ISIS leader near Manbij. “Coalition forces, in an advise, assist and accompany capacity with our partners, were conducting a mission to kill or capture a known ISIS member when they were struck by an improvised explosive device,” said Col. Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition. The U.S. has since sent reinforcements to bolster the small number U.S. troops in Manbij, the Pentagon confirmed yesterday. PUTIN’S WHITE HOUSE INVITE: Trump is considering hosting Putin at the White House later this year, but nothing has been scheduled yet. “As the President himself confirmed on March 20, hours after his last call with President Putin, the two had discussed a bilateral meeting in the ‘not-too-distant future’ at a number of potential venues, including the White House,” spokesman Raj Shah said in a statement. Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the U.S. and Russia and the political hurdles Trump faces at home are making it increasingly difficult for Trump to achieve his campaign goal of warmer relations between Washington and Moscow, writes Sarah Westwood. Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY — VOTEL TALKS IRAQ, SYRIA: The U.S. Institute of Peace holds a keynote panel discussion at 1:30 p.m. on the future of the fight against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria with Votel; Stephen Hadley, the principal foreign policy adviser to President George W. Bush; Brett McGurk, the special envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS; and Ambassador Mark Green, the administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development. The institute will also hold panels through the late morning with Iraqi and Kurdish officials as well as foreign policy experts. PENTAGON’S WALL FUNDING AUTHORITY CHALLENGED: The Pentagon has “no legal authority” to fund Trump’s proposed wall along the southern border with Mexico, two Democratic senators told Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Monday. Sens. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, and Dick Durbin, the ranking member on the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee, wrote a letter telling Mattis their conclusion and asked the secretary to respond with his own assessment. “We conclude that the Department of Defense has no legal authority, with or without a reprogramming request, to use appropriated funds for the construction of a border wall,” they wrote. Trump floated the idea in a tweet last month for the military to pay for the border wall, which is estimated to cost about $25 billion, and the Pentagon confirmed last week that Mattis discussed it with the president. The senators said any funding shift would have to go to similar military purposes and any transfer would have to be for higher priority military requirements. Funding in 2006 and 2008 for the National Guard to assist the Department of Homeland Security on building roads and fences along the border required a presidential budget amendment request and a specific appropriation by Congress. That process “indicated that the Department of Defense had no inherent legal authority to use appropriations for those more limited purposes at the time the president made the request,” they told Mattis. EXPERTS DISPUTE MATTIS TRANSGENDER STUDY: Two leading associations of psychiatrists and psychologists say the Pentagon is misrepresenting the effectiveness of treatment for transgender people in its new personnel policy proposal. Mattis’ 44-page review of existing research concluded that the scientific evidence is at best “unclear” for treatment of gender dysphoria, the condition of being unhappy in your current gender. “That’s really not true and it’s certainly not true among the actual experts who treat these people,” said Dr. Jack Drescher, a psychiatrist and psychoanalyst who is a distinguished fellow at the American Psychiatric Association. “We shouldn’t assume just because somebody has a psychiatric diagnosis that they are not able to function and there is no reason to believe, based on what we know of people who have gotten treatment for their gender dysphoria, that they are any different. If people get treatment for their gender dysphoria, then they are doing fine.” The association denounced the Pentagon plan as discriminatory last week. The American Psychological Association, which also called it discriminatory, said it was “alarmed by the administration’s misuse of psychological science” as a basis to bar transgender service. “It’s hard to see how they got to the conclusion they got to except by basically already prejudicially knowing the conclusion they wanted to reach and just spinning out a story to support and justify that conclusion,” said Clinton Anderson, the director of the Office on Sexual Orientation and Gender Diversity at the American Psychological Association. MATTIS REVIEW LEAVES OUT CONTEXT: The panel put together by Mattis and its 44-page review acknowledge “serious differences of opinion on this issue, even among military professionals,” but at times downplay or omit context from a variety of recent transgender studies cited. See our examination of the cited research here. SUPPORTERS LAUD A CONSISTENT, JUSTIFIED POLICY: The proposed policy remains just a recommendation for now and is being blocked by four federal lawsuits. Tom Spoehr, director of the Center for National Defense at the Heritage Foundation, has called it a common-sense move that is “completely consistent” with other military recruitment policies. “In recruiting offices across the country, recruiters and doctors discriminate every day about who comes into the military,” said Spoehr, a retired Army lieutenant general. “There is all kinds of discrimination going on in recruiting, and it’s all lawful, and it’s all for an easily justifiable purpose.” Mattis’ review of the existing research was a ray of hope that the military is going to discard the Obama-era open service policy and politicized views of transgender service, said Elaine Donnelly, founder and president of the Center for Military Readiness, a group that advocates for right-wing conservative policies. “The information about all the studies that discredit the transgender claims about their so-called medically necessary treatments, which really don’t cure underlying problems at all, that’s new and a welcome addition to the public debate,” said Donnelly, who has examined the study. THE QUIET WAR GRINDS ON: U.S. Africa Command announced yesterday that five suspected terrorists were killed in Somalia over the weekend when a missile fired from a U.S. drone hit their vehicle. It’s the latest report from the front lines of a war that few Americans are paying attention to, but where some 500 U.S. troops, including special operations commandos, are working with the Somali military to battle al-Shabaab, the al Qaeda affiliate. Every couple of weeks, AFRICOM announces the deaths of a small number of al-Shabaab fighters. Last month, two were killed and three were wounded in a drone strike. In February, the U.S. announced it killed nine suspected terrorists in three separate strikes. FLAWED IRAN NUKE DEAL: The Foundation for Defense of Democracies is out with a new analysis of one of the major flaws of the Iran nuclear deal that Trump is considering ripping up next month. Former Israeli acting national security adviser Brig. Gen. Jacob Nagel argues the current inspection regime is inadequate and should be strengthened by granting the International Atomic Energy Agency “anywhere, anytime” access to all Iranian civilian and military sites. MORE CERTAINTY ON NERVE AGENT ATTACK: British authorities investigating the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal on U.K. soil believe the sophistication of the chemical attack demonstrates that it was likely approved by the Kremlin, a source briefed on the investigation told CNN on Monday. Those examining the scene said the placement of the nerve agent on Skripal’s door is proof of Russian government-level sophistication, and therefore it is assumed the attack was approved by the highest level of the Russian government. BUNKER MENTALITY: A new book claims the White House has a massive secret bunker beneath its north lawn for doomsday scenarios, while staffers battle a more immediate menace — insects — with pressurized salt guns. The bunker, built during the Obama administration, was toured by members of Trump’s staff last year, author Ronald Kessler wrote in The Trump White House: Changing the Rules of the Game, which was released Monday. Kessler, a former Washington Post reporter and author of several books on the Secret Service and national security, wrote that the facility is large enough to fit the White House workforce indefinitely. “At least five stories deep, the bunker, which was completed near the end of President Obama’s tenure, can house the staff of the entire West Wing indefinitely in the event of a weapons of mass destruction attack,” Kessler wrote. “After Trump became president, top staffers toured the bunker, whose existence is classified.” THE RUNDOWN Defense One: Could Trump Actually Use Military Funding for His Border Wall? Daily Beast: U.S. Downplays its War Games in Korea 38 North: Please Go, But Not Quite Yet: The Question of US Troops in South Korea Foreign Policy: Will the Real Trump Russia Policy Please Stand Up? Reuters: Afghan Air Strike Against Taliban Causes Dozens Of Casualties: Officials Defense News: Short-Range Air Defense battalions will grow in both Army’s active force and National Guard Task and Purpose: SOCOM Accidentally Bought Way, Way Too Much Combat Gear AFP: Drone footage shows destruction in Syria’s Douma Business Insider: This crazy photo shows the power of the Carl Gustaf M4 bazooka South China Morning Post: China-Built Carrier Set To Make Sea Trial This Month Task and Purpose: One Of The Navy’s Newest Warships Is Coming Home After 3 Months Stranded In Canada Marine Corps Times: Marines ‘not at the point of contact’ in Afghanistan New York Times: Sermons and Shouted Insults: How Erdogan Keeps Turkey Spellbound The New Yorker: A Saudi Prince’s Quest to Remake the Middle East War on the Rocks: The Emigrant Sisters Return: The Growing Role of the Islamic State’s Women New York Times: How a Photographer Got a Rare Shot of James Mattis USNI News: It’s Always 1700 Somewhere: Jimmy Buffett Presented Navy Civilian Award |
CalendarTUESDAY | APRIL 3 10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Iraq and Syria: Views from the U.S. Administration, Military Leaders and the Region with Gen. Joseph Votel, CENTCOM Commander, Stephen Hadley, and Brett McGurk, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS. usip.org WEDNESDAY | APRIL 4 8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group breakfast with Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats. 8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Health Affairs Breakfast featuring Kenneth Bertram, the Principal Assistant for Acquisition for the US Army Medical Research and Materiel Command. ndia.org 4:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Big Small Companies: How Size Matters in Defense Contracting. atlanticcouncil.org THURSDAY | APRIL 5 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Autonomous weapons and international law with introduction by Pauline Krikke, Mayor of the Hague. brookings.edu 12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of the JCPOA: Implications for the U.S., Its Allies, and Adversaries. hudson.org 2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen. csis.org 5 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. “Meddling—How to Win Friends and Influence People: Ivan Maisky, Soviet Ambassador in London, 1932-43,” a presentation by Gabriel Gorodetsky and a conversation with Strobe Talbott. carnegieendowment.org 6:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Affairs Issue Launch: Letting Go: Trump, America, and the World. cfr.org FRIDAY | APRIL 6 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book discussion of “The Kremlinologist: Llewellyn E. Thompson, America’s Man in Cold-War Moscow” with authors Jenny Thompson and Sherry Thompson. wilsoncenter.org 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Seeking solutions for Somalia. brookings.edu 10:30 a.m. 1030 15th Street NW. Iran’s Sunnis Resist Extremism, But for How Long? atlanticcouncil.org MONDAY | APRIL 9 9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. Opening day of Sea-Air-Space, the Navy League’s global maritime exposition. seaairspace.org 10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Russian Way of Warfare. csis.org 12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. U.S.-North Korea Relations: Any Progress on Nonproliferation Efforts? A discussion with Victor Cha and retired Adm. Mike Mullen, former Joint Chiefs chairman. cfr.org TUESDAY | APRIL 10 7 a.m. 6715 Commerce St. 2018 Ground Robotics Capabilities Conference and Exhibition. ndia.org 9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. Sea-Air-Space, the Navy League’s global maritime exposition with Adm. Paul Zukunft, Commandant of the Coast Guard, and others. seaairspace.org |
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