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WAIT A MINUTE, MR. POSTMAN: Vice President Mike Pence is disputing the idea that talks with North Korea have stalled, and argued President Trump’s cancellation of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s planned trip to Pyongyang sent a wake-up call to Kim Jong Un. On CBS’ program “Face the Nation,” Pence said the U.S is awaiting confirmation from Kim that negotiations can resume. “We’re expecting a letter as we speak from Kim Jong Un communicating again, as he did last week, his reaffirmation of his commitment to denuclearization,” Pence said. “When the president canceled the meeting a week ago because he wasn’t seeing enough progress in denuclearization, that may well have resulted in what Kim Jong Un communicated to a South Korean envoy just last week,” Pence said, referring to a statement from presidential official Chung Eui-yong, who told reporters that Kim reaffirmed his “firm resolve” to denuclearization in a meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Moon’s office says the leaders of the two Koreas will meet Sept. 18-20 in Pyongyang to discuss specific steps to achieve the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” Pence argued that the fact there have been no more nuclear or missiles tests, along with the return of American captives and 55 sets of remains believed to be war dead from the Korean War was “all the result of the president’s leadership.” Meanwhile, Pence said while the U.S. is anticipating the letter from Kim, “Our sanctions remain in place.” MISSILE GAP: Everyone, including Trump, is reading a significant symbolic message sent by North Korea’s 70th National Day Military Parade, which unlike last year was devoid of any display of intercontinental ballistic missiles, the sort that are believed capable of striking the United States with a nuclear warhead. “This is a big and very positive statement from North Korea. Thank you To Chairman Kim,” said Trump yesterday in a tweet that quoted Fox News as saying, “Experts believe that North Korea cut out the nuclear missiles to show President Trump — its commitment to denuclearize.” “North Korea has just staged their parade, celebrating 70th anniversary of founding, without the customary display of nuclear missiles. Theme was peace and economic development,” Trump said. “We will both prove everyone wrong! There is nothing like good dialogue from two people that like each other! Much better than before I took office.” WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY: “Avoiding drawing attention to its nuclear weapons is different from wanting to give them up soon,” warns Tong Zhao, a fellow with the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. “Future denuclearization negotiations will still be difficult, long, and full of setbacks.” Zhao argues that Kim’s strategy is to play China against the U.S. to exploit the mutual suspicion, distrust, competition and strategic rivalry between Beijing and Washington. “Refraining from showing long-range missiles at this parade helps keep the current diplomatic engagement with the U.S. on track, while holding the hand of the Chinese envoy as everyone cheers helps keep China close too,” Zhao said. “It was indeed a great show.” At the Center for the National Interest, Harry Kazianis is more optimistic, calling North Korea’s decision not to display long-range ICBMs “a big deal that should not be ignored.” “It signals that Kim Jong Un wants to not only continue the détente that has taken hold on the Korean Peninsula, but that there is hope for more progress in the months to come,” Kazianis said. “Kim was surely under pressure from top military and government officials to showcase Pyongyang’s military might but held back, instead signaling to America and South Korea that he may indeed be more serious about denuclearization than some would give him credit for.” Kazianis argues that Trump should seize the initiative and offer Kim a peace declaration that ends the Korean War in exchange for a full accounting of Kim’s nuclear warheads and missiles.” WHAT THE INTEL SAYS: Senior U.S. officials tell NBC News that North Korea is still making nuclear weapons and working to conceal its activities. “North Korea has built structures to obscure the entrance to at least one warhead storage facility, according to the officials,” the report said. “The U.S. has also observed North Korean workers moving warheads out of the facility, the officials said, though they would not speculate on where the warheads went.” North Korea is believed to be capable of building five to eight warheads per year, the same pace as before the June summit it Singapore. FEAR OF ATTACK: One thing we know about North Korea is that it’s paranoid about the U.S. launching a preemptive attack aimed at toppling the Kim regime. If the U.S. demands the precise location of the North’s nuclear arsenal it could see that as giving up a target list for a future strike. In Bob Woodward’s book on the inner workings of the Trump administration, he provides an example of how U.S. moves can be misinterpreted. In “Fear,” which is officially published tomorrow, Woodward recounts how last year Trump proposed — within the White House but not publicly — sending a tweet declaring that he was ordering all U.S. military dependents out of South Korea. “The act of removing the dependents would almost certainly be read in North Korea as a signal that the United States was seriously preparing for war,” Woodward writes. “On December 4, [then-national security adviser H.R.] McMaster had received a warning at the White House. Ri Su-yong, the vice chairman of the Politburo, had told intermediaries ‘that the North would take the evacuation of U.S. civilians as a sign of imminent attack.’ ” Woodward said the possible tweets “scared the daylights out of the Pentagon leadership,” who feared a “use-it-or-lose-it mindset could take hold.” Woodward claims it was Sen. Lindsey Graham, who had floated the idea of pulling dependents out of South Korea himself, who convinced Trump to stay his Twitter finger. “You need to think long and hard before you make that decision,” Woodward quotes Graham as saying. “Because when you make that decision, it is hard to go back. The day you do that is the day you rock the South Korean stock market and the Japanese economy. That is a big frigging deal.” “You think I should wait?” Trump reportedly asked. “Mr. President,” Graham is said to have replied, “I don’t think you should ever start this process unless you’re ready to go to war.” Trump has attacked the book as a work of fiction, but Woodward defended his reporting in an appearance on CBS’ “Sunday Morning.” Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING: The Pentagon’s annual Sept. 11 commemoration will begin at sunrise tomorrow (6:47 a.m.) with the unfurling of a huge American flag down the side of the Pentagon, just as it was 17 years ago the morning after the terrorist attacks. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. Paul Selva will host Pence at an observance ceremony at the Pentagon 9/11 Memorial in honor of the 184 people killed when American Airlines flight 77 slammed into the side of the building. The remembrance ceremony is for family members to observe the memory of their loved ones, and is not open to the public. HASC HEARING ON FUTURES COMMAND: The Army has taken a major step toward fixing its troubled acquisition system by standing up the new Futures Command in Austin, Texas. But the House Armed Services Committee is holding a hearing this week to ask whether the command will actually help. Army Undersecretary Ryan McCarthy and Gen. John Murray, the new leader of Futures Command, will testify to the Armed Services readiness subcommittee on Thursday. WHAT’S THE STRATEGY IN SYRIA? Another House Armed Services subcommittee hearing on Friday that will look at the U.S. strategy in Syria appears to have good timing. Expect questions on the troop presence at the Al Tanf garrison near the Iraq border and the U.S. response to the renewed Syrian assault on Idlib province. Assistant Defense Secretary Robert Story Karem and Brig. Gen. Scott Benedict, deputy director of Middle East planning for the Joint Staff, will be testifying. DRAWING UP OPTIONS: Speaking to a small group of reporters during a trip to India, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford said the Pentagon will provide military options to Trump should Syria ignore U.S. warnings against using chemical weapons in Idlib. “We are in a dialogue, a routine dialogue, with the president to make sure he knows where we are with regard to planning in the event that chemical weapons are used,” Dunford said, according to Reuters. “He expects us to have military options and we have provided updates to him on the development of those military options.” Dunford said no decision has been made to use military force in response to a future chemical attack in Syria, but on Fox News Sunday, Pence issued an unequivocal warning. “We are watching it very closely and we have made it very clear to the regime in Syria, to Russia and Iran that the United States and our allies will not tolerate the use of chemical weapons against civilians in that province,” he said. “I want to make it very, very clear. There’s a wider world watching, [and] the United States of America and our allies will take swift and decisive action against any use of chemical weapons in Idlib province,” Pence said. “We will be monitoring that very, very carefully to ensure that we don’t see another humanitarian catastrophe like we did before.” MILITARY FUNDS FOR BORDER WALL: Trump has already ordered the National Guard to the southern U.S. border to deal with what he called an immigration crisis. But the Pentagon may also still be tapped for funding to build the president’s long-promised border wall, he said on Friday. “We have two options — we have military, we have homeland security. Politically, I’d rather get it through politically. If we don’t, I’m looking at that option very seriously,” Trump told reporters. MATTIS WEIGHING OPTIONS: The Department of Homeland Security sent a request to Mattis last month asking that the Pentagon build a 32-mile, $450 million section of border wall along the Air Force’s Barry M. Goldwater bombing range in Arizona. The defense secretary is now considering the request. But the construction project could run headlong into time-consuming environmental regulations and the funding may require support from a Congress that is bitterly divided over Trump’s border wall. NEPA AND FUNDING HURDLES: The project falls under the regulations of the National Environmental Policy Act, or NEPA, and the Navy is doing advance planning and an initial environmental survey of the Air Force land. If it finds evidence a new 30-foot barrier could have a significant impact on the surrounding environment, the military will be required to conduct a much more thorough assessment and likely put Trump’s border wall plan out for public comment. The $450 million cost might also pose a challenge. Mattis could take the money from the budget for other military construction projects, but he would likely need Congress to approve a reprogramming request. Otherwise, the project is costly enough it would require a line item in Congress’ annual budget bills. Rep. Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, and fellow Democrats on the House Appropriations Committee asked Mattis to reject the project and signaled last week that they will fight it. EMERGENCY OPTIONS: There are two emergency options open to Mattis and Trump if they need to sidestep funding roadblocks in Congress. Mattis could declare the 32-mile section of wall vital to national security. Under federal law that would allow him to spend up to $50 million per year on building it. Mattis and Trump could also skirt funding limitations and environmental laws if the president declares a national emergency over the project, though the money would still have to come out of existing military construction funds, according to federal law. CALLING TRUMP’S BLUFF: Trump last week threatened to partially shut down the federal government unless it approves funding for his border wall, but lawmakers from both parties say that isn’t going to happen. Publicly, Trump is keeping people guessing, but Republican leaders are desperate to avoid the last-minute spending fights that have plagued Congress for years. The GOP has worked with Democrats to move 2019 funding bills faster than any time in decades, and they are reasonably sure they have a deal with Trump to fund the government without a big fight over the border. THE RUNDOWN New York Times: Across Afghanistan, Scores Are Killed in a Deadly Wave of Violence Washington Examiner: Top Intel Dem Mark Warner: New York Times anonymous op-ed writer not a national security risk Defense News: Commentary: The US Air Force needs a light attack aircraft Washington Post: Scientists and doctors zap theory that microwave weapon injured Cuba diplomats New York Times: C.I.A. Drone Mission, Curtailed by Obama, Is Expanded in Africa Under Trump Reuters: U.S. cancels security meeting with Central American countries, El Salvador says AFP: Video: North Korea holds 70th anniversary parade, without ICBMs Bloomberg: U.S. Navy Conducts Military Exercises In Gulf Amid Iran Tension Defense One: Deploy the Next-Gen Missile-Defense Network in Pieces Politico: Neil deGrasse Tyson: Space Force mission should include asteroid defense, orbital clean up AP: Syrian military released video of clash with IS Fox News: Groundbreaking ‘Tower of Voices’ Flight 93 memorial erected ahead of 9/11 anniversary The Hill: Mattis-Trump relationship put to the test by Woodward book Navy Times: Drunken British sailors are invading Florida and beating each other up, because why not? |
CalendarMONDAY | SEPT. 10 9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Securing Space: A Discussion on the U.S. Space Force with Robert Work, Former Deputy Secretary of Defense. csis.org 12 noon. 1127 Connecticut Ave NW. Federalist Society Hosts National Security Advisor John Bolton for an Address on Protecting American Constitutionalism and Sovereignty from International Threats. fedsoc.org 12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The War on Something-ism: 17 Years and Counting. hudson.org 2:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Progress and Obstacles in Addressing War Legacy Issues in Southeast Asia. stimson.org 5:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A Conversation with Former Secretary of State John Kerry about his new memoir Every Day is Extra. carnegieendowment.org TUESDAY | SEPT. 11 8:45 a.m. Pentagon. Sept. 11 Memorial Observance with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. Paul Selva, and Vice President Mike Pence. 10:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Trade Battles, North Korea, and U.S.-Japan China Policy. carnegieendowment.org 12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Weapons of Mass Destruction and Cooperative Threat Reduction: Looking Ahead. hudson.org 2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A conversation about China’s sharp power and Taiwan. brookings.edu 3 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Putin’s Propaganda: Pushing Back Against Kremlin-Run Television. atlanticcouncil.org WEDNESDAY | SEPT. 12 11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book Launch of No Place for Russia with Author William Hill. wilsoncenter.org 12:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Russia and Arctic Governance: Cooperation in Conflict. stimson.org 12:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Escalation Through Entanglement. carnegieendowment.org 2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Next Step Forward for U.S.-India Strategic Ties: Assessing the First 2+2 Dialogue. csis.org 4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Election Interference: Emerging Norms of Digital Statecraft. atlanticcouncil.org THURSDAY | SEPT. 13 7 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Mastering Business Development Workshop. ndia.org 7:30 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Workshop: Current State and Long-Term Prospects for China’s Defense and Strategic Technological Development. csbaonline.org 10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Resetting US-Taiwan Relations: American and Taiwanese Perspectives. hudson.org 10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Hearing on Oversight of U.S. Sanctions Policy. foreignaffairs.house.gov 10:15 a.m. Dirksen 419. Full Committee Hearing Russia’s Role in Syria and the Broader Middle East. foreign.senate.gov 10:30 a.m. Dirksen 342. Full Committee Hearing on Evolving Threats to the Homeland. hsgac.senate.gov 10:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Indian foreign policy in a changing world. brookings.edu 11 a.m. Defending Military Data: Challenges and Best Practices in a Connected World. defenseone.com 12:30 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Markup of H. Res. 1017 Requesting President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Turn Over Documents on the President’s Communications with Vladimir Putin. foreignaffairs.house.gov 1 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A Decade of U.S.-China Relations: From Engagement to Rivalry. wilsoncenter.org 1:30 p.m. Rayburn 2020. Subcommittee Hearing Army Futures Command with Ryan McCarthy, Under Secretary of the Army, and Gen. John Murray, Commanding General of Army Futures Command. armedservices.house.gov 5:30 p.m. 2800 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Wilson Center 50th Anniversary and 10th Anniversary of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States Dinner and Celebration with Henry Kissinger, Sen. Roy Blunt and Rep. Steny Hoyer. wilsoncenter.org 6:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Author Sean Parnell Discuss His Debut Novel “Man of War” with CNN Anchor Jake Tapper. press.org FRIDAY | SEPT. 14 8 a.m. House Visitors Center 210. Subcommittee Hearing on U.S. Strategy in Syria with Robert Story Karem, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, and Brig. Gen. Scott Benedict, Deputy Director J5 Strategic Plans and Policy for the Middle East on the Joint Staff. armedservices.house.gov 9:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Lessons Emerging from the JEDI Cloud: Immediate Steps and the Future of Next-Generation IT. hudson.org 9:30 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Subcommittee Hearing on U.S. Policy Toward Syria. foreignaffairs.house.gov 10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The US-French Partnership in a Changing World. atlanticcouncil.org MONDAY | SEPT. 17 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Enduring Legacy of Desert Storm and Desert Shield. heritage.org 1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. A Discussion on National Security with DIA Director Robert Ashley. csis.org |
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