BOLTON ‘UNVARNISHED’: Former national security adviser John Bolton, in his first major speech since he was fired (or quit) last month, has disputed President Trump’s rosy view of North Korea’s nuclear intentions.
Saying as a private citizen he is now free to “speak in unvarnished terms” about what he called a “grave and growing threat,” Bolton told an audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies that North Korea has not made a strategic decision to give up its nuclear weapons.
“In fact, I think the contrary is true,” Bolton said. “I think the strategic decision that Kim Jong Un is operating through, is that he will do whatever he can to keep a deliverable nuclear weapons capability and to develop and enhance it further.”
SHORT-RANGE MISSILES, LONG-TERM THREAT: Bolton also argued that Trump is wrong when he says North Korea’s recent testing of short-range missiles and multiple-launch rocket systems is nothing to worry about.
“The testing of shorter-range ballistic missiles that we’ve seen in recent months doesn’t give us any reason to think that those are not threatening,” Bolton argued. “Because the capabilities, the technology, things like maneuverability of close-range or short-range ballistic missiles, by definition, can be adopted to longer-range ballistic missiles.”
Japan and South Korea are well within range of the new short-range missiles, which are capable of overwhelming current missile defense technology.
TIME IS NOT OUR FRIEND: Bolton also argues that Trump’s frequent statements that he’s in no rush for a deal, so long as North Korea is not conducting nuclear tests or launching ICBMs that can reach the U.S., is also misguided.
“So when we say, ‘Well, we’re in no rush for negotiations. We’re in no rush for resolution of this,’ we’re saying to North Korea and Iran, ‘Take your time. Keep going. You’ve got more time to plan, to test, to produce, to deploy these capabilities,’” Bolton said. “Time works against those who oppose nuclear proliferation, and a relaxed attitude to time is a benefit to the likes of North Korea and Iran.”
THE LIBYA MODEL: When Bolton parted ways with the president, Trump ridiculed him for advocating the so-called “Libya model,” under which Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi gave up his nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.
“We saw Moammar Gadhafi make an unambiguous decision that he and Libya would be better off without developing nuclear weapons,” said Bolton. “We have seen not only nothing like that from North Korea.”
“It may be the Libya model is not possible, but what I regard as even worse, in a way, is pretending that you’re getting to a resolution of the nuclear issue, when you simply allow North Korea still to have a nuclear capability but give it enough economic assistance through direct provision resources or through the release of sanctions that gives the regime a lifeline it currently doesn’t have,” he said.
ONLY THE US CAN DO IT: “There’s only one country in the world that can stop nuclear proliferation, and we’re in it,” Bolton argues. “We can use help, that’s for sure, but if the United States fails in this mission, there is no other state or combination of states and no international organization that can be a substitute.”
And he argues that now is not the time to make more concessions, which Kim Jong Un will only use to his advantage. “Right now we are in a classic standoff with North Korea. They want a piece of something that we should not be prepared to give them.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: This is Gen. Mark Milley’s first full day as the 20th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the senior military adviser to both the president and the secretary of defense.
“You can rest assured that I’ll always provide you informed, candid, impartial military advice to you, the secretary of defense, the National Security Council, and to the Congress,” Milley said to President Trump Monday at his rain-soaked welcome at Summerall Field, Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall, Virginia.
“All of my life I’ve heard that if it rains on a big occasion, it brings luck. So, Mark, I think you’re going to be the luckiest general in history,” said Trump in his remarks. “I have absolute confidence that he will fulfill his duty with the same brilliance and fortitude he has shown throughout his long and very distinguished career.”
DUNFORD’S INFLUENCE: Trump also told a story about what he said was the first time he met Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, who just retired from the chairman’s job, and hung up his uniform after more than four decades of military service.
As Trump tells it, he was at an awards dinner in 2015, and he sat with Dunford. “Believe it or not, I was getting a big award from the Marines. And Joe was presenting the awards, and I had not even thought of running for president,” Trump said. “And I said to my wife and family, ‘Look at that guy. He’s a great-looking guy, isn’t he? It’s like central casting. He’s like right out of Hollywood.’”
Trump says he bounced the idea of a presidential run off the “central casting,” Marine. “’What do you think? Do you think I’d have a shot? If I get it, we’re going to rebuild that military. It’s going to be stronger than ever before,’” he says he told Dunford. “And he helped me form an opinion. He gave me a lot of information. And he has ever since.”
THORNBERRY JOINS GOP ‘TEXODUS’: Texas Republican Rep. Mac. Thornberry, the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, has announced he’s retiring after 13 terms in Congress. Thornberry chaired the panel for four years until Democrats won the House majority in 2018.
“We are reminded, however, that ‘for everything, there is a season,’ and I believe that the time has come for a change. Therefore, this is my last term in the U.S. House of Representatives.” Thornberry said in a statement. “With over a year to go, I will continue to represent the people of the 13th District to the best of my ability. Our nation faces many difficult challenges, and none of us can relax our efforts to meet and overcome them, whether at home or around the world.”
Thornberry now joins five other Republican House members from Texas who have decided not to run again in 2020.
“I have known Mac since I first came to Congress in 1997 and have always been impressed by his intelligence and tenacity,” said Adam Smith, the Democratic chairman of House Armed Services Committee. “Thanks to Mac’s leadership, during the 115th Congress we focused on acquisition reform and accountability at the Pentagon.”
CSIS REPORT: The Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program is out with a new white paper, “U.S. Military Forces in FY 2020: The Strategic and Budget Context.”
The report concludes that while Trump administration’s FY 2020 budget continues needed increases in defense spending to align U.S. military forces with a national defense strategy focused on great power competition, the future presents two major risks for sustaining force plans: (1) a lack of real growth in future budgets; and (2) softening public support.
LIBYA STRIKES: The U.S. Africa Command has stepped up it airstrikes targeting ISIS in Libya over the last 12 days.
Since Sept. 20, the U.S. has conducted four strikes, which it claims have killed 43 terrorists, the latest on Sunday when seven ISIS members were said to have been killed in a strike conducted in the southern part of the country.
“Our pursuit of ISIS-Libya and other terrorist networks degrades their ability to effectively conduct operations against the Libyan people,” said Army Maj. Gen. William Gayler, director of operations for AFRICOM. “By disrupting the terrorists’ planning, training, and activities, we also degrade their capacity to threaten U.S. and partner interests in the region.”
The Rundown
U.S. News & World Report: The Joint Chiefs’ Power Surge
New York Times: How Iran’s President Left Trump Hanging, and Macron in the Hall
Reuters: China Marks 70 Years Of Communist Rule With Massive Show Of Force
USNI News: Experts Say Beijing Will Bring South China Sea Lessons to Space
Yonhap News Agency: U.S. Rules Out Redeployment Of Nukes To South Korea
Bloomberg: Boeing’s $2.8 Billion Awacs Plane Upgrade Slowed by Lab Closings
Reuters: South Korean fighter jets patrol over islands disputed by Japan
Military Times: Afghanistan Peace Negotiations May Be Dead, But The War’s Still Very Much Alive
New York Times: Both Afghan Candidates Claim the Lead Even Before Votes Are Tallied
Washington Post: Militants Attack Western Forces In Somalia; U.S. Responds With Airstrikes
AP: Iraq and Syria open border crossing closed since 2012
Agence France Presse: India Defends Right To Buy Russian Arms On U.S. Trip
Washington Examiner: Martha McSally fights for her political life
New York Times: Sting With Phony Secrets Leads To American’s Arrest
Washington Examiner: How veterans are being exploited in higher education
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 1
7:45 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Arlington — National Defense Industrial Association breakfast discussion with Associate Deputy Assistant Air Force Secretary for Science, Technology and Engineering Jeff Stanley. https://www.ndia.org/events
9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. — Brookings Institution discussion on “Global China: Assessing China’s growing role in the world and implications for U.S.-China strategic competition,” with Assistant Defense Secretary for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Randall Schriver; Ryan Hass, fellow and chair at the Brookings Foreign Policy program; Rush Doshi, director of the Brookings China Strategy Initiative; Jamie Horsley, visiting foreign policy fellow at the Brookings China Center; Cheng Li, director of the Brookings China Center; Audrye Wong, post-doctoral research fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution; and Tarun Chhabra, foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Project on International Order and Strategy. https://www.brookings.edu/events
1:00 p.m. 58 East 68th St. New York — Council on Foreign Relations “Conversation With National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib of Afghanistan.” Streamed live on the CFR website and on YouTube. https://www.cfr.org
1:30 p.m. 300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Woodrow Wilson Center discussion on “A State of Un-Peace: The EU’s Response to Asymmetric Threats,” with EU Commissioner for the Security Union Julian King; and former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., director, president and CEO of WWC https://www.wilsoncenter.org
2 p.m. 1957 E Street N.W. — The George Washington University Elliott School and GWU East Asia National Resource Center hold a Korea Policy Forum on “U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry and the Korean Peninsula,” with Heung-Kyu Kim, professor at the Ajou University Department of Political Science; Scott Synder, senior Korea studies fellow and director of the Council on Foreign Relations’ Program on U.S.-Korea; Jiyong Zheng, associate international studies professor at the Fudan University Center for Korean Studies; and Jisoo Kim, director of the GWU Institute for Korean Studies. https://elliott.gwu.edu/event-calendar
7 p.m. 14th and F Streets N.W. — National Press Club film screening and discussion on “Jim: The James Foley Story,” about the American photojournalist kidnapped in Syria and killed by terrorists in 2014, with Margaux Ewen, executive director of the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation; Courtney Radsch, advocacy director at the Committee to Protect Journalists; and Alison Kodjak, president of NPC. https://www.press.org/events
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 2
8 a.m. 2401 M Street N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast conversation with Army Gen. Steve Lyons, commander of U.S. Transportation Command. Nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
9 a.m. 1301 K Street N.W. — Washington Post Live Cybersecurity Summit, with former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff; former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper; Anne Neuberger, director of cybersecurity at the National Security Agency; Bill Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center; and Associate Deputy Attorney General Sujit Raman. https://www.washingtonpost.com/post-live
12:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — Stimson Center discussion on “Between Two Giants: The Korean Dilemma within U.S.-China Competition,” with Byung Kwang Park, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy; and Zheng Jiyong, director of the Fudan University Center for Korean Studies.
12:45 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion on “Missile Defense in the Indo-Pacific,” with Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy Robert Soofer; Rear Adm. Steve Koehler, director of operations at U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Rebeccah Heinrichs, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group web event “Powering the Next Generation of Military Dominance with Artificial Intelligence,” with Chris Sexsmith, artificial intelligence/machine learning field strategy lead at Red Hat. https://www.govexec.com/feature
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 3
9 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E. — Heritage Foundation and Marine Corps University Foundation sponsor “A Conversation with the Commandant: Designing a Force for Future War,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; and Dakota Wood, senior research fellow for defense programs at Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event
12 p.m. Van Munching Hall, College Park, Md. — University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies forum on “Deciphering Intentions: China’s South China Sea Strategy and Implications for Great Power Competition,” with Oriana Mastro, assistant security studies professor at the Georgetown University Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service https://cissm.umd.edu/events/cissm-global-forum
12 p.m. 1100 New York Avenue N.W. — American Security Project discussion on “Climate and Security in Southeast Asia,” with retired Navy Inspector General Vice Adm. Lee Gunn; and Ashley Westerman, journalist at National Public Radio https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“You can rest assured that I’ll always provide you informed, candid, impartial military advice to you, the secretary of defense, the National Security Council, and to the Congress.”
Army Gen. Mark Milley to President Trump at Monday’s ceremony marking the beginning of his term as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.
