What a Trump win would mean for the Pentagon

THE THIN RED LINE: Republicans also appear poised to hold the Senate, especially if Trump wins, and thereby providing the crucial tie-breaker vote in the person of Vice President Mike Pence.

In the five states that have not yet been called, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska, Republicans are leading. If all five win, Republicans would have a 52-48 majority in the Senate.

Democrats failed to flip Joni Ernst’s seat in Iowa, and Susan Collins is leading in Maine, but the race has not yet been called. Democrat Mark Kelly did manage to unseat Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona seat formerly held by the late Sen. John McCain.

THE POPULAR VOTE: Election coverage has barely mentioned the popular vote, which as of 7 a.m. had Biden up by more than 2 million votes with 68,867,059 to Trump’s 66,641,718. After 2016, Americans learned, if they didn’t already know, that the popular vote is essentially meaningless.

WHAT DOES IT PORTEND FOR THE PENTAGON? Read on!

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Washington is awash in post-mortems sponsored by various think tanks and organizations dissecting what just happened.

Here are a few:

• 10 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research webinar, “What Will the 2020 Elections Mean for Education?”
• 12:15 p.m. — Duke University virtual discussion, “Election 2020: the Morning After.”
• 1 p.m. — Washington Post Live Election Daily webcast with Gov. Larry Hogan, R-Md.; Don McGahn, former White House counsel; and Bob Bauer, adviser to the Biden for President campaign.
• 2 p.m. — The Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “Election 2020: Results and implications.”
• 2 p.m. — Richard Viguerie, founder of ConservativeHQ.com, hosts a virtual news conference with conservative leaders to analyze the results of the 2020 presidential election.

ESPER’S PROBABLY TOAST: Mark Esper was likely to leave the Pentagon no matter which way the presidential election went. Trump has done little to dispel the rumors that he’s lost confidence in Esper and was simply waiting to replace him until after the election was over.

A Trump victory will likely seal Esper’s fate and see the former Raytheon lobbyist and West Point classmate of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo return to the private sector, where no doubt more lucrative employment opportunities await him.

STABLE PENTAGON BUDGETS: With Trump in charge and the GOP holding a one or two vote majority in the Senate, the Republicans should be able to beat back efforts from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which was hoping to force deep cuts in defense spending.

The progressives wanted a 20% cut in the overall Pentagon budget, something opposed by more moderate Democrats in Congress, including Rep. Adam Smith, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, who won easy reelection in his Seattle, Washington, district.

END TO AFGHANISTAN MISSION: If Biden pulls out a come-from-behind victory, it’s entirely likely he would follow the U.S. military’s advice to leave a small number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan to continue to hunt ISIS and al Qaeda terrorists.

If Trump wins, he will have a free hand to make good on his pledge to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan, perhaps not by Christmas as he hopes, but certainly by early next year.

GERMANY DRAWDOWN WOULD CONTINUE: Biden would likely put a halt to Trump’s decision to punish Germany by withdrawing 12,000 U.S. troops for “not paying its bills” by ordering a new review of the plan and perhaps reversing it.

A Trump win means the plan would go forward, setting up a confrontation with Congress, including with many Republicans who oppose the move.

MORE PRESSURE ON RUSSIA IN ARMS TALKS: The U.S. and Russia are in the middle of negotiating an extension to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, aka “New START.” The 2010 treaty, which limits each side to 1,550 deployable nuclear warheads, can automatically be extended for five years by mutual agreement.

The Trump administration has been using the treaty’s February 2021 expiration date as leverage to negotiate a limited one-year extension, with an eye toward a bigger deal that might include China. A Trump win would signal Russia that it won’t get a better offer from a Biden administration.

THE TRIAD LIVES ON: Among the hopes of some Democrats in Congress is a cut in the trillion-dollar plan to modernize all three legs of the nuclear triad — bombers, submarines, and land-based missiles — by eliminating or downsizing the third leg, the ICBM force.

Under Trump and a GOP Senate, that idea, promoted by arms control advocates, is a non-starter.

IRAN REMAINS IN ITS BOX: The biggest loser on the international stage would be Iran if Trump goes on to win. The mullahs in Tehran were clearly hoping for a Biden win, with the expectation that Biden would either rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal, which is still supported by U.S. allies Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, or negotiate a separate agreement on more favorable terms than Trump would offer.

Iran will either have to come to terms with Trump or face increasing isolation and crippling economic sanctions while battling the coronavirus pandemic.

NORTH KOREA: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is in a similar watching and waiting mode. While 2020 saw Kim continue to build up his nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, he avoided taking deliberately provocative action.

A Trump victory would maintain the “maximum pressure” campaign to convince North Korea to follow through on its pledge to verifiable, irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

ARMS SALES: President Trump has been an indefatigable salesman for U.S. arms to other countries (“We have the best weapons!”). The Pentagon sees foreign military sales as a way to cement relationships with allies and partners.

The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and two of its Arab neighbors, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, opened the door to the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE.

The Pentagon recently moved to streamline the process of selling arms to allies and like-minded partners.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: ‘As far as I’m concerned, we’ve already won’: Trump hits out at election ‘fraud’ and vows Supreme Court battle

Washington Examiner: 2020 presidential election thrown into turmoil with no clear winner, accusations of fraud, and prospect of legal battles

Washington Examiner: With Joni Ernst’s win, the Republican Senate is probably saved

Washington Examiner: Democrats poised to keep House majority

Washington Examiner: House Armed Services chairman foreshadows change to nuclear posture and modernization delay if Biden wins

Washington Examiner: American allies brace for chaotic end to US election

AP: Iran’s Supreme Leader, Quoting Trump, Mocks U.S. Election

Washington Post: Crowd gathers outside White House as ballots are counted across the country

New York Times: Russian Internet Trolls Are Amplifying Election Fraud Claims, Researchers Say.

Washington Post: U.S. undertook cyber operation against Iran as part of effort to secure the 2020 election

Reuters: Putin Pledges Russian Superiority In The Arctic With New Icebreakers

Reuters: U.S. Congress Notified Of Drone Sale To Taiwan: Pentagon

Stars and Stripes: ‘No Place Is Safe Now’: Afghans In Mourning After 22 Killed In Attack On Kabul University

USNI News: ‘The Quad’ Kicks Off Malabar 2020 Exercise in Bay of Bengal

USNI News: Two-Carrier Fire Drill Trains Sailors to Avoid Problems Found in Early Moments of Bonhomme Richard Fire

Los Angeles Times: China Uses War Stories To Rally Long-Term Resistance To Washington

New York Times: South Korea Detains North Korean Who Crossed Demilitarized Zone

Stars and Stripes: Langley Takes Over Marine Mission In Europe, Africa Following Neary’s Relief

Army Times: Soldiers, Marines Finish First Test Of Ruggedized ‘Do-It-All’ Augmented Reality Goggle

National Defense: State Department Hints at More Arms Sales to Mideast

The National Interest: Senkaku Islands: Could the U.S. Military and Japan Really Land Troops?

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Germany’s crucial navy deployment against Chinese imperialism

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 4

1:30 p.m. — Autonomous & Hypersonic Weapons Systems Virtual Symposium, wi- Asst Dir. for Hypersonics Mike White, OUSD(R&E) (1:30 p.m. EST); Joint Hypersonics Transition Office Dr. Gillian Bussey, OUSD(R&E) (2:05 p.m. EST), speak @ Autonomous & Hypersonic Weapons Systems Virtual Symposium (register @ https://www.asdevents.com/aerospace-defence

2 p.m. — Heritage Foundation “Member Call” on 2020 election results, with Heritage President Kay C. James; Tommy Binion, vice president of government relations; and Jessica Anderson, executive director, Heritage Action for America.

THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 5

8 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy webcast: “The Korean Peninsula After the U.S. Election,” with former State Department Special Representative for North Korea Policy Joseph Yun, senior adviser at the U.S. Institute of Peace Asia Program; Kim Joon-hyung, chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy; Kim Jiyoon, political analyst and host of TBS FM’s “Evening Show”; and Jean Lee, director of the Hyundai Motor-Korean Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/korean-peninsula-after-us-election

9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual 2020 Joint Armaments, Robotics and Munitions Digital Experience, with Army Maj. Gen. Patrick Donahoe, commanding general of the Army Maneuver Center of Excellence (pre-recorded); Army Brig. Gen. Vincent Malone, joint program executive officer of the Army Joint Program Executive Office (pre-recorded); and Donald Sando, deputy to the commanding general and director of capabilities development and integration at the Maneuver Center of Excellence. https://www.ndia.org/events

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “The U.S. presidential election and what it means for the U.S.-ROK alliance and North Korea moving forward,” with former U.S. Ambassador South Korea Christopher Hill, professor at the University of Denver. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event

9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States webinar on a new Institute for the Study of War report: “Putin’s Offset: The Kremlin’s Geopolitical Adaptations Since 2014,” with Kimberly Kagan, president of the Institute for the Study of War; Nataliya Bugayova, nonresident national security fellow at the Institute for the Study of War and director of intelligence at Tecsonomy; Ben Hodges, chair in strategic studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis; Teija Tiilikainen, director of the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats; and Oksana Syroid, co-chair of the Lviv Security Forum. https://www.gmfus.org/events/putins-offset

11 a.m. — Space Foundation’s Space Symposium 365, with Gen. James Dickinson, commander United States Space Command. https://spacesymposium365.org

12 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual event: Post-Election Analysis: What Lies Ahead for America?” with Kay C. James, Heritage Foundation president; William Bennett, former Education Secretary and Drug Czar; Jim Geraghty, senior political correspondent, National Review; John Yoo, Professor of Law, UC Berkeley and fellow, American Enterprise Institute; and Byron York, chief political correspondent, Washington Examiner. https://www.heritage.org/the-constitution/event

FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 6

9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual 2020 Joint Armaments, Robotics and Munitions Digital Experience, with Assistant Defense Secretary for Acquisition Kevin Fahey. https://www.ndia.org/events

1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Enabling the 21st Century Operator,” with Joint Artificial Intelligence Center Director Lt. Gen. Michael Green. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event

2:30 p.m. — University of Washington Space Policy and Research Center (SPARC) Symposium, with remarks by Maj. Gen. John Shaw, commander, Combined Force U.S. Space Component Command; and Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash. https://www.sparc.uw.edu/2020-symposium

MONDAY | NOVEMBER 9

12:30 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute web event: “A hard look at the defense capabilities of allies and partners,” with Hal Brands, resident scholar, AEI; Gary Schmitt, resident scholar in strategic studies, AEI; Olivier Schmitt, Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark; Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Toshi Yoshihara, senior fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Livestream: https://www.aei.org/events

TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 10

9 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute webcast: “Gray-zone aggression: Countering a growing national security threat,” with Elisabeth Braw and Pål Jonson of the Swedish Parliament; retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, Cyberspace Solarium Commission; and Hélène Galy of Willis Research Network. https://www.aei.org/events/gray-zone-aggression

TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 17

11 a.m. — The Heritage Foundation releases its 2021 Index of U.S. Military Strength, with Texas Rep. Mac Thornberry, ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/virtual-event