Trump’s Pentagon budget draws fire from all sides

“The United States faces a historically complex range of threats to our nation’s security,” said Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee. “Meeting those threats requires continuing to restore the readiness of our forces, providing our troops with the best possible training and equipment, reforming the Pentagon to maximize resources, upgrading our weapons to stay ahead of potential adversaries, and taking good care of our military personnel and families.”

WALL FUNDING ARTIFICIALLY INFLATES THE TOPLINE: The president’s request includes $8.6 billion for additional barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border, a plan Democrats in the House blocked in January and say they will again. Take that out of the budget and defense spending is basically flat, argue budget mavens Mackenzie Eaglen and Rick Berger over at the American Enterprise Institute.

“[T]he real 2020 budget will be around $743 billion, excluding inappropriately included border wall funding. That’s basically just growth with inflation from 2019,” Eaglen and Berger write. It continues to repair military readiness, but that’s it. The flat spending plan “does not accelerate the timeline for expanding missile defenses or for building a 355-ship Navy. … [I]t simply holds the line on modernizing weapons across the services. It does not rectify the $116 billion shortfall in dilapidated basing and military housing. Nor does it invest the billions necessary to prepare installations for new adversary missiles or to deal with the slow creep of climate change.”

THEN THERE’S THE OCO PROBLEM: Initial reaction from Republicans is that they are not buying Trump’s plan to get around the spending caps mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011 by simply putting the excess $165 billion in the warfighting OCO account meant for Overseas Contingency Operations.

Yesterday a senior administration official indicated that Trump feels he gave up too much to Democrats to get the two-year agreement that allowed the $700 billion and $716 billion defense budgets in 2018 and 2019. This time he wants to cut basically all domestic programs without having to make what he considers a bad deal to get more money for defense.

“We are signaling in this budget that the paradigm of a dollar of non-defense increase for every dollar of defense is no longer, and hasn’t been for some time, affordable for the country,” said the official in a conference call with reporters. The official said that for the last two years of the mandatory spending limits, which expire in 2021, the administration should “not be bound” by the caps. “[W]e view this as an opportunity to both rebuild the military and prevent a caps deal from worsening the fiscal picture on the non-defense side.”

IT’S ‘TROUBLING,’ SAYS HERITAGE: “The oversized OCO request is troubling because it takes a short-sighted view of the military rebuild,” says Fred Bartels, a defense budget analyst at the Heritage Foundation. “While it would provide the resources necessary in the next budget, it would not set the department on a solid financial footing for the coming years. The process of rebuilding the military and preparing it for great power competition requires a long-term commitment. It is not a process that will be done in one year, or even the next several. Our budgets must reflect that.”

DON’T BE DISTRACTED: That’s not the approach favored by Inhofe, who said yesterday he wants to either raise the caps or exempt defense spending from them.

Thornberry, meanwhile, urged his colleagues not to get caught up in the budget gimmickry, reminding them that Congress ultimately determines funding levels, not the president. “We also cannot allow ourselves to become distracted by the construction of the budget request,” Thornberry said. “This total level of spending, however it is constructed, is the minimum we need to provide if we are to fulfill our responsibilities.”

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY — DEVIL IN THE DETAILS: The Pentagon has a full slate of briefings today to fill in the broad outlines of the defense budget announced by the White House yesterday. (See calendar below.)

Here’s what we know is in it:

• Rebuilding readiness: Funding for training, maintenance, spare parts, and flying hours.
• Modernizing the triad: Investments in nuclear ballistic missile submarines, strategic bombers, nuclear air-launched cruise missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and the associated nuclear command, control, and communications systems.
• Space Force: Funding to establish the USSF as a new service within the Department of the Air Force.
• More planes: More F-35As for the Air Force along with improvements to F-15 and F-16 fleets. More F-35Bs and Cs for the Navy and Marine Corps along with modernization of their current F/A-18E/F fighters. Money for new B-21 stealth bombers and procurement of KC-46 aerial refueling tankers.
• More ships: Including 2 large experimental unmanned surface ships and 12 battle force ships, 3 guided missile destroyers, 3 fast attack submarines, and the first of a new class of guided missile frigates.
• More missiles: Continues work on a new missile field at Fort Greely, Alaska, with 20 silos and 20 additional Ground-Based Interceptors in support of plans to increase the number of deployed GBIs to 64.
• More armored brigades: Accelerates the modernization of the Army’s armored brigades to nearly seven over the five-year window while investing in the development of a next-generation ground combat vehicle.
• 3.1 percent military pay raise: A 2020 military pay raise of 3.1 percent, a rate set by a congressionally mandated formula. It will be the biggest pay hike since 2010.

BUT NOTHING FOR YOU, DoD CIVILIAN: Remember when President Trump caved after 35 days and signed legislation ending the partial government shutdown? Here’s what he said about the brave federal workforce, which includes 744,000 Department of Defense civilians, many of whom toil alongside the uniformed military, often doing the same kind of work.

“I want to thank all of the incredible federal workers and their amazing families, who have shown such extraordinary devotion in the face of this recent hardship. You are fantastic people. You are incredible patriots. Many of you have suffered far greater than anyone, but your families would know or understand.”

But while including a 3.1 percent pay hike for the military, the president’s proposed 2020 budget has no pay raise for those “incredible federal workers and their amazing families.” And to make matters worse, the 1.9 percent pay increase for 2019 that was included in the bill signed by Trump in January hasn’t been forthcoming either. The president has yet to rescind the pay freeze he imposed on federal workers by executive order. Federal employee unions are beginning to wonder when and if he will.

In addition to freezing that pay again, the 2020 budget would also require DoD civilians and other federal workers to pay more toward their retirement benefits, something House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., called a “nonstarter” “that once again attacks our hardworking federal workforce.”

NORTH KOREA FLOUTING SANCTIONS: North Korea is circumventing sanctions approved by the United Nations in December 2017 that were designed to cut the country’s oil imports and crack down on exports, among other penalties. Pyongyang “continues to defy Security Council resolutions through a massive increase in illegal ship-to-ship transfers of petroleum products and coal,” a U.N. panel has found.

The “violations render the latest United Nations sanctions ineffective by flouting the caps on the import of petroleum products and coal oil,” said the report, which noted such transfers have grown in “scope, scale and sophistication.”

According to Hugh Griffiths, the head of the U.N. Panel of Experts, the level of “spoofing” the group witnessed is unprecedented. “They’re using more sophisticated methods. They’re becoming cleverer,” Griffiths told NBC News. Examples found in the report include the hacking of foreign banks and North Korea flying flags from Panama, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania on their vessels.

US VULNERABLE IN SYRIA: The latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War concludes that while President Trump’s decision to keep a residual force of at least 400 troops in Syria prevents an immediate land grab by Iran, Russia, or Bashar Assad, it still leaves the United States in a vulnerable position militarily.

“These actors nonetheless still have options that could lead to the defeat or expulsion of U.S. forces,” says the group. “Iran, Assad, and Russia are building up forces west of the Euphrates River and using outreach to local tribes to gain footholds on its eastern bank. Even a limited drawdown by the U.S. will create security gaps east of the Euphrates River that could be exploited by Iran, Assad, and Russia.”

The United States is better positioned at the base at Al-Tanf on the Syrian-Jordanian border, according to the analysis. “The garrison at Al-Tanf is relatively defensible with secure supply lines to Jordan as well as a limited tactical requirement to defend the base and a surrounding fifty-five kilometer exclusion zone, which includes the Rukban IDP [Internally Displaced Persons] Camp.”

DACOWITS CONCERNED ABOUT MARINES: In its 2018 annual report released yesterday, the Defense Advisory Committee on Women in the Services (DACOWITS) expressed its disappointment about the way the Marine Corps, alone among the services, conducts what is supposed to be gender-integrated basic training.

“DACOWITS believes that initial training is foundational to Service members’ readiness. However, the Marine Corps is currently the only Service that does not endorse full gender integration during recruit training, highlighted by women not being incorporated into each recruit training battalion,” the group said, citing its one area of concern among nine recommendations. “Although the Committee is encouraged by the Marine Corps’ movement toward integration, it continues to encourage and will monitor further efforts to integrate recruit training.”

PREG NO MORE: Among its recommendations, the advisory group suggested that the Marine Corps should eliminate the pregnancy references found in the Corps’ Performance Evaluation System, which currently identifies a female Marine’s health status by using the code “PREG” in the weight section.

“Removing any indication of a servicewoman’s pregnancy would eliminate any potential for bias with regard to her promotions, augmentations, resident schooling, command, and duty assignments,” the report said.

OF COURSE WOMEN BELONG: In a op-ed in this morning’s Washington Post, former defense secretary Leon Panetta, who opened all military jobs to women in 2013, worries that a recent federal court ruling could lead to a rollback of the policy.

“Last month, a federal court in Texas [held] that the selective service registration requirement should apply to women as well as men. This ruling may cause the Trump administration to reinstate the combat exclusion rule. It would be a grave, not to mention unconstitutional mistake,” Panetta writes.

“We need women in the military in greater numbers than ever to meet our troop-strength targets without lowering our standards,” he argues. “There are now hundreds of women serving in positions that had previously been closed to them, and tens of thousands of others who are aspiring to do the same. This is not the time to reverse course and undermine their service or weaken our military readiness by replacing them.”

STOLTENBERG TO ADDRESS CONGRESS: The leaders of both congressional chambers plan to have NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg address a joint session of Congress. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., will invite Stoltenberg to speak in April as the North American Treaty Organization’s 70th anniversary nears.

“Leader McConnell and Speaker Pelosi have agreed to invite Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to address a joint session of Congress this spring. We will have additional details of the Secretary-General’s speech in the weeks to come,” McConnell spokesman David Popp told the Washington Examiner.

President Trump has disparaged NATO in the past, specifically criticizing NATO partners for slow progress in meeting the 2024 target of 2 percent of GDP contributed toward defense spending.

AMERICA DUPED: A commander in chief who is tired of foreign wars, wants to bring U.S. troops home, is skeptical of U.S. intelligence, and thinks it was a big mistake to invade Iraq in 2003? Not our current president, but a Democratic hopeful.

“I served in a war in Iraq, a war that was launched based on lies and a war that was launched without evidence,” said Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, in a town hall for presidential candidates that aired Sunday night on CNN. “The American people were duped. So as a soldier, as an American, as a member of Congress, it is my duty and my responsibility to exercise skepticism any time anyone tries to send our servicemembers into harm’s way or use our military to go in and start a new war.”

Gabbard, who met with Syrian President Bashar Assad in 2017, also said she’s not ready to label him a war criminal despite evidence the United States says shows he has used chemical weapons against his own people and tortured and killed hundred of thousands of Syrians. “I think that the evidence needs to be gathered, and, as I have said before, if there is evidence that he has committed war crimes, he should be prosecuted as such,” she said at the event in Austin, Texas.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Pompeo withdrawing all personnel from US Embassy in Venezuela

Washington Post: U.S. Renews Hard-Line Rhetoric On North Korea

AP: US envoy: North Korea denuclearization must not be incremental

Washington Post: Former vice president Cheney challenges Pence at private retreat, compares Trump’s foreign policy to Obama’s approach

Reuters: Last Islamic State Enclave In Eastern Syria Pounded In U.S.-Backed Assault

Stars and Stripes: Taliban Leader Spent Last Days Just Miles From US Base, Report Says

AP: Coast Guard Officer Accused of Making Hit List Pleads Not Guilty

Washington Examiner: Senators skeptical of China’s promise to stop taking US tech

Breaking Defense: Tackling Hypersonic Threats: Offense Or Missile Defense?

The Diplomat: Russia: Project 09852 Nuclear Torpedo-Carrying Sub to Enter Service in 2020

Defense News: The Strange Case Of A ‘European Aircraft Carrier’

Calendar

TUESDAY | MARCH 12

7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference (Day 2). www.carnegieendowment.org

9 a.m. 6715 Commerce St. Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville delivers a keynote address on the “The Future of the Army” at the AFCEA Army Signal Conference, Waterford at Springfield. www.afcea.org

Noon. Pentagon Briefing Room. Briefing by Under Secretary David Norquist, who is “performing the duties of the deputy secretary of defense,” Pentagon comptroller Elaine McCusker, and Lt. Gen. Anthony R. Ierardi of the joint staff on the FY 2020 DoD budget submission to Congress. www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events.

Army budget briefing follows at 12:50 p.m, Navy Marine Corps at 1:40 p.m., Air Force at 2:30 p.m., and the Missile Defense Agency at 3:20 p.m.

2 p.m. 2212 Rayburn. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing on “Outside Perspectives on Military Personnel Policy. Witnesses: Todd Harrison, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Peter Levine, Institute for Defense Analyses; Beth Asch, RAND Corporation. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2:30 p.m. SR-232A Russell. Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities hearing on artificial intelligence initiatives within the Department of Defense. Witnesses: Peter Highnam, deputy director, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Michael Brown, director of DoD’s Defense Innovation Unit; and Air Force Lt. Gen. John Shanahan, director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center. www.armed-services.senate.gov

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 13

7 a.m. 1513 K St. N.W. McAleese/Credit Suisse 10th Annual FY2020 “Defense Programs” Conference. All-day speaker list includes: Adm. John Richardson, chief of naval operations; Gen. Robert Neller, Marine Corps commandant; Ryan McCarthy, under secretary of the Army; Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., Armed Services Committee chairman; Rep. Joseph Courtney, D-Conn; Rep. Robert Wittman, R-Va.; Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio; and many others. Email [email protected] to register.

8:15 a.m. 6715 Commerce St. Day two of 2019 AFCEA Army Signal Conference, Springfield, Va. Air Force Lt. Gen. Bradford Shwedo delivers the opening keynote address, and at 4:15 p.m. Lt. Gen. Stephen Fogarty, commanding general of U.S. Army Cyber Command, delivers the closing keynote. Waterford at Springfield. www.afcea.org

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. U.S. European and Supreme NATO Commander Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti and Kathryn Wheelbarger, acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, testify before the House Armed Services Committee. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid delivers remarks about challenges facing Europe and Estonia’s evolving role in the trans-Atlantic community at Brookings and then discusses the topic with Brookings President John Allen. Brookings Institution Falk Auditorium. www.brookings.edu

11:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. “The Indo-Pacific after INF.” Keynote remarks by Sen. Tom Cotton. www.heritage.org

12:30 p.m. 529 14th St N.W. Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., a combat veteran, delivers remarks on maintaining America’s military preeminence at National Press Club Newsmakers Luncheon. www.press.org

2 p.m. 2212 Rayburn. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing on “Ensuring resiliency of military installations and operations in response to climate changes.” Witnesses: retired Rear. Adm. David Titley, Pennsylvania State University; Sharon Burke, International Security Program and Resource Security Program; and Nicolas Loris, Center for Free Markets and Regulatory Reform. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. Rayburn. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities hearing on U.S. Cyber Command and operations in cyberspace. Witnesses: U.S. Cyber Command Army Gen. Paul Nakasone and Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “The Future of U.S.-Afghanistan Relations: A View from Afghanistan.” www.hudson.org

4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. “Putin’s World.” www.brookings.edu

THURSDAY | MARCH 14

9:30 a.m. SD-G50, Dirksen. Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, and Pentagon comptroller Elaine McCusker testify before the Senate Armed Services on the Fiscal Year 2020 DoD Budget. www.armed-services.senate.gov

9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway. Air Force Maj. Gen. David Krumm, director of strategic plans, speaks at AFA Mitchell Hour. www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/mitchell-hour

10 a.m 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces hearing on “Department of the Air Force Fiscal Year 2020 budget request for seapower and projection forces.” Witnesses: William Roper, assistant secretary of Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics; Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy Fay, deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration, and requirements. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The future of the Army in an era of great power competition.” www.brookings.edu

3:30 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The Price of Kindness: Lebanon and Syria’s Refugees.” www.sais-jhu.edu

5:30 p.m. 2425 Wilson Boulevard. Gus Perna, commanding general, Army Materiel Command, speaks at the Association of the U.S. Army Institute of Land Warfare Rogers Strategic Issues Forum. Reception and networking begin at 5:30 p.m., and the program begins at 6:00 p.m. www.ausa.org

FRIDAY | MARCH 15

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. CSIS Implementing Innovation Series: A Perspective from Will Roper, Air Force Acquisition Executive. www.csis.org

9:30 a.m. 1800 M Street N.W. Breakfast discussion on “America’s Missile Strategy, Countering and Defending Against Threats from Iran and North Korea,” sponsored by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, featuring Rebeccah Heinrichs, senior fellow at Hudson Institute; David Maxwell, senior fellow at FDD; and Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at FDD. Invitation-only event open to government officials, Hill staff, foreign policy professionals, members of the diplomatic corps, the think tank and foreign policy communities, and credentialed press. Advance registration and confirmation is required.

TUESDAY | MARCH 19

8 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Religious Authority in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. Policy.” www.carnegieendowment.org

9:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. “Crimea after Five Years of Russian Occupation.” www.usip.org

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Defense spending in the 50 states.” www.brookings.edu

10:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Tokyo’s Views on the Growing U.S.-China Rivalry.” www.carnegieendowment.org

FRIDAY | MARCH 22

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The end of an era? The INF Treaty, New START, and the future of strategic stability.” www.brookings.edu