SHOULDER TO SHOULDER: Four months to the day after President Trump agreed in a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to pull U.S. troops out of northern Syria, the predicted collapse of the U.S. alliance with Kurdish-led fighters has not come to pass.
In fact, American troops continue to conduct joint operations with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. Last Friday hundreds of SDF commandos, accompanied by troops from the U.S.-led coalition, mounted a large-scale clearance operation against a sleeper cell in Deir ez-Zor province, capturing eight known ISIS fighters
“The Coalition and SDF have conducted an increasing number of partnered operations in northeast Syria, multiple raids each week, to prevent ISIS resurgence in Deir ez-Zor and Hasakah provinces,” according to a statement from Operation Inherent Resolve.
“Our partners continue to conduct intelligence-driven operations, removing ISIS fighters from the region and denying them safe haven,” said coalition commander Maj. Gen. Eric Hill, in a news release. “The defeat ISIS mission in Syria has proceeded uninterrupted in recent weeks,” said Hill.
PRISONS SECURE: One of the fears raised by the reduction and repositioning of U.S. troops in Syria was that it would result in thousands of ISIS prisoners escaping from detention facilities guarded by the Kurdish-led forces.
That has also not happened, according to the U.S. military spokesman for the coalition Col. Myles Caggins. “Many thanks to the SDF for securing +10,000 ISIS detainees & facilitating housing for displaced persons at Al Hol camp,” Caggins tweeted Tuesday. “We appreciate their efforts assisting the international community for our common goal of eliminating ISIS.”
LINE OF ATTACK: At a CNN Town Hall event last night, former Vice President Joe Biden attacked President Trump’s decision to allow Turkey to take control of much of Syria along Turkey’s southern border, an argument he has made a campaign theme.
“Ten thousand Kurds died in defeating ISIS, re-establishing the caliphate,” Biden said. “And what happened? What happened? This president of the United States, dealing with a man I know incredibly well, the prime minister of Turkey, what did he do? He yielded to Erdogan and he said that we would withdraw our forces from along the Turkish border between Turkey and Syria, allowing the Turks to move in on the Kurds.”
Pressed by Dartmouth College about whether in 2012 he advised President Barack Obama against arming and training Syrian opposition forces, Biden insisted that was not true.
“I didn’t say that,” Biden answered. “The issue at the time was whether or not we should use military force if they were moving with chemical weapons. What I did say was, we should not —and the president agreed and the military did — we should not be sending a large number of ground troops into Syria.”
RUSSIAN PROBES: Meanwhile Russian-controlled forces in Syria have been roaming deeper into U.S.-held territory in an apparent effort to challenge the American presence in the northeast,” writes Joel Gehrke in the Washington Examiner.
“These are not daily occurrences, but they have been increasing in number,” James Jeffrey, the State Department’s lead negotiator for the Syria crisis, told reporters. “It’s troubling.”
“They try to come deep into the area where the SDF are patrolling, well inside the basic lines that we have sketched,” Jeffrey said. “I will stress the professionalism of the troops on the ground, beginning with our troops, is such that these incidents have not escalated. But of course, any commander would be concerned about this, and we call upon the Russians to adhere fully to the deconfliction agreement.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Mark Esper will discuss “The National Defense Strategy at Year Two,” at a forum hosted by the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and moderated by Mara Karlin, director of strategic studies school’s Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies.
ALSO TODAY: The United Nations Security Council will meet to discuss the deteriorating situation in the Syrian city of Idlib, according to Reuters, which cited a source saying the meeting was called by the United States, France and the United Kingdom.
The meeting comes as Turkish President Erdogan threatened to use force against Syrian government forces if they don’t pull back to an earlier cease-fire line in northern Syria by the end of the month, according to the AP.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians are trapped and attempting to flee as Syrian government forces close in on Idlib province, one of the last rebel strongholds. “Some are having to flee by foot, while many others are having to sleep in their cars, as Syrian and Russian warplanes bombard the highways leading north toward Turkey,” reports Reuters. They are battling cold weather, disease and a lack of shelter, say doctors and international aid groups.
NEW START: There is still a year to go before the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty a.k.a “New START” nuclear arms agreement with the Russians expires, but Democrats in Congress continue to worry the President Trump will not renew the pact because it doesn’t include China.
“Now, with the New START Treaty just one year from expiration, we urge President Trump to reach an agreement with President Putin to extend it for five additional years,” said New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and New York Rep. Eliot Engel, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
“For nearly a decade, this treaty has constrained Russia’s nuclear forces, provided strong and detailed verification measures to ensure Russia adheres to its commitments, and allowed the United States the flexibility to maintain a safe, secure, modern, and effective nuclear deterrent,” the senators said in a joint statement. “The data exchanges and on-site inspections of New START provide unique insights into Russia’s nuclear forces and greatly assist our military in carrying out its deterrence mission.”
CAMP ASHLAND: As more Americans return from China and are subject to a 14 day quarantine for possible exposure to the coronavirus, the Pentagon continues to make military facilities available for temporary accommodations.
The Pentagon says in response to a request for assistance from the Department of Health and Human Services, Secretary Esper has approved the use of base housing at Camp Ashland, Nebraska for up to 75 people through the end of the month.
The facility is owned by the Department of Defense but leased to the State of Nebraska, so Esper’s approval was done in consultation with the governor of Nebraska.
As with the arrangement at other military bases, HHS is responsible for all care, transportation, and security of the evacuees, and military and civilian DoD workers will not be in direct contact with the evacuees and will minimize contact with personnel supporting the evacuees, according to a Pentagon statement.
INDUSTRY WATCH:
The National Defense Industrial Association has released its latest report “Vital Signs 2020: The Health and Readiness of the Defense Industrial Base,” and it concludes the base is “stressed” and “trending negative” as companies grapple with deteriorating conditions for industrial security and the availability and cost of skilled labor and materials.”
“Composite scores for four of the eight dimensions eroded in 2019 since 2018. Meanwhile, six dimensions earned composite scores lower than 80 and three dimensions earned scores below 70, which are failing grades. These scores suggest that the defense industrial base is increasingly struggling to meet the ‘unprecedented’ challenges it faces.”
The report gives the state of the industry a grade of C.
While the United States still has the greatest military and defense equipment in the world, “we won’t stay that way if we don’t address this problem now,” said Hawk Carlisle, NDIA’s president and CEO, in a phone call with reporters.
L3Harris Technologies has reached a major milestone in the U.S. Air Force’s Navigation Technology Satellite-3 project, passing the preliminary design review that defines the spacecraft’s path to delivery and allows the program to move to the next phase of development, the company reports.
“We have moved from contract award to finishing an early design review in under one year, which is an amazing accomplishment for a satellite development program that normally takes twice that amount of time,” said Ed Zoiss, President, Space and Airborne Systems, L3Harris.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US diplomat: Russian-controlled forces risking conflict with American troops in Syria
Washington Examiner: ‘We can’t hold back’: British telecommunications executive urges Europe to go easy on Huawei
Reuters: U.S. halts secretive drone program with Turkey over Syria incursion
AP: Iraqi officials say Baghdad wants to minimize reliance on US
Breaking Defense: SecDef Eyeing Moving Billions By Eliminating Offices, Legacy Systems
USNI News: Navy, Marines Prioritizing Manning, Maintenance After Fatal Pacific Mishaps
Breaking Defense: Is Army Richest Service? Navy? Air Force? AEI’s Eaglen Peels Back Budget Onion
Bloomberg: Navy Swaps Submarine for Destroyer in 2021 Budget Request Shift
Popular Mechanics: The Navy’s Surprise Unmanned Fighter Is a Glimpse of War’s Near Future
Defense One: Trump’s Bid to Go Big on Nuclear Arms Looks Like a Fizzle
Reuters: U.N. watchdog sees no new Iranian violations of nuclear deal
Reuters: Russia says alarmed by U.S. deployment of low-yield nuclear missiles
Stars and Stripes: ‘Spacemen’ and ‘space cadets’ are out, as Pentagon officials wrangle with what to call Space Force members
The Intercept: SEAL commander who clashed with Trump to leave early
Calendar
8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies China Initiative Conference, with Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Demers; FBI Director Christopher Wray; National Counterintelligence and Security Center Director William Evanina; and keynote address by Attorney General William Barr. https://www.csis.org/events/china
8:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Space Power to the Warfighter” seminar with Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Space Policy Stephen Kitay. http://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/
9 a.m. 3401 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Atlantic Council conference on “Looking North: Security in the Arctic,” with Norwegian Ambassador to the U,S. Kare Aas; Kim Holmen, international director of the Norwegian Polar Institute; Thomas Nilsen, editor of the Independent Barents Observer; Stephanie Pezard, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation; Sherri Goodman, senior fellow in the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute; Ali Rogin, foreign affairs producer for PBS’s “NewsHour”; and Aaron Mehta, deputy editor and senior Pentagon correspondent at Defense News. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
POSTPONED: 10 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on U.S. Special Operations Command and U.S. Cyber Command, with testimony from Thomas Alexander, performing the duties of assistant secretary of defense, special operations and low-intensity conflict; Gen. Richard Clarke, U.S Special Operations Commander; and Gen. Paul Nakasone, U.S. Cyber Commander. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Cato Institute forum “Is War Over?” with Paul Poast, associate professor of political science at the University of Chicago; John Mueller, political scientist at Ohio State University; Christopher Fettweis, professor of political science at Tulane University; Bethany Lacina, associate professor at the University of Rochester; and John Glaser, director of foreign policy studies at Cato. https://www.cato.org/events/is-war-over
2 p.m. 1111 19th St. N.W. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy discussion on “The Persistent Threat from the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda: The View from the UN,” with Edmund Fitton-Brown, former coordinator of the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Concerning the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and the Taliban. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org
4 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies hosts Defense Secretary Mark Esper for a discussion titled, “The National Defense Strategy at Year Two.” Moderated by Mara Karlin, director of strategic studies school’s Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies. Open to the public and media. https://sais.jhu.edu Register at https://www.eventbrite.com
4:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E. — Heritage Foundation Lecture on “Why the U.S. Needs a Strong NATO,” with Kay Bailey Hutchison, U.S. ambassador to NATO; and Kim Holmes, executive vice president of Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/europe/event
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 7
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion on “The Air Force in 2020: A Strategy to Modernize,” with Thomas Ehrhard, vice president for defense strategy at the Long Term Strategy Group; Rebecca Grant, president of IRIS Independent Research; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
12:15 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute a discussion on “NATO and the New Decade: Assessing the Transatlantic Alliance,” with NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana; Peter Rough, senior fellow at Hudson; and Ken Weinstein, president and CEO of Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
8 p.m. 100 St. Anselm Dr., Manchester, N.H.— Democratic presidential primary debate at St. Anselm College to be aired on ABC.
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 11
8 a.m. 2168 Rayburn — Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition Congressional forum on the importance of the U.S. Navy’s amphibious warships, with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc; Rep. Rob Wittman R-Va.; Rep. Gil Cisneros D-Calif.; Rep. Jack Bergman, R-Mich; moderated by retired Rear Adm. Sam Perez. https://amphibiouswarship.org/congressional-forum/
4 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies hosts
The JHU SAIS Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies and Duke University’s Program in American Grand Strategy will host the 2020 conference on civil-military relations, “Reflections on Civil-Military Relations: Crises, Comparisons, & Paradoxes,” at Johns Hopkins SAIS on February 11, 2020
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 12
All Day Brussels, Belgium — Defense Secretary Mark Esper attends meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of Defense Ministers at the NATO Headquarters, chaired by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 13
All Day Brussels, Belgium — Day two of NATO Defense ministerial at NATO Headquarters, with U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. https://www.nato.int
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 14
All Day, Munich, Germany — Defense Secretary Mark Esper attends the 56th Munich Security Conference will take place at Hotel Bayerischer Hof Friday through Saturday. https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2020/
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 4
9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — McAleese Defense Programs Conference. Register at [email protected]
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If the regime does not retreat to areas behind the observations posts, Turkey will be forced to take matters into its own hands.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatening the use of force against Syrian government troops in northern Syria, as quoted by the AP.
