A MORE DANGEROUS FOE: With the U.S. election now just five days away, it is becoming increasingly clear the next president will have to deal with — and likely live with — a stronger, more provocative North Korea that has an ever-growing arsenal of nuclear warheads and long-range ballistic missiles.
After his historic meeting with Kim Jong Un in 2018 in Singapore, President Trump confidently tweeted, “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea,” and advised Americans to “sleep well tonight!”
The victory declaration was premature, to say the least.
“Rather than denuclearizing, North Korea has continued to nuclearize,” says Bruce Klingner, Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation. “The regime has created a new generation of more advanced, accurate, and survivable missiles for all ranges that escalates the nuclear threat against South Korea, Japan, U.S. bases in Okinawa and Guam, and the continental United States.”
“North Korea’s ability to target American cities with thermonuclear hydrogen bombs could undermine the effectiveness of existing war plans, inhibit U.S. responses, and exacerbate growing allied concerns of abandonment and decoupling of the alliances,” Klingner wrote in a grim report for Heritage released last week.
“It is clear that the United States must do more to protect the U.S. homeland and our people from the growing North Korean missile threat,” writes Riki Ellison, of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, an independent group that, as its name implies, lobbies for increased commitment to missile defense.
“Whoever wins next week’s Presidential election will need to address this critically-important challenge with urgency,” Ellison says. “We simply cannot allow North Korea to gain the ability to coerce and threaten the United States with long-range missiles armed with nuclear weapons.”
THE TELL IS IN THE TEL: During a massive military parade in Pyongyang Oct. 10, North Korea displayed an imposing array of new weapons, including the Hwasong-16, a monster new ICBM, the world’s largest road-mobile missile.
Analyzing photographs released by North Korea state media, the MDAA’s Ellison calculates Hwasong-16 is a half-meter wider, a few meters longer, and about double the volume of its ICBM predecessor, the Hwasong-15. He estimates its throw-weight between 2,500-3,000 kilograms of nuclear weapon reentry vehicles along with countermeasures, over double that of the Hwasong-15 and enough to deliver four nuclear warheads along with challenging decoys and penetration aids.
But Ellison was also focused on the TEL, the transporter erector launcher that carried the missile through Pyongyang square. It’s the world’s largest and longest TEL with 11 axles, he says, with the ability to transport the ICBM without fuel to enable it to move more quickly and making it far more difficult to target.
MISSILE DEFENDERS AT THE READY: More worrisome, says Heritage’s Klingner, is North Korea’s ominous talk of its willingness to conduct a preemptive strike against the U.S. if it believes it is about to be attacked. “Pyongyang has vowed a preemptive nuclear attack against Seoul and U.S. bases in the Pacific region if the regime perceived even a “slight sign” of allied preparations for a strike,” he writes. “The North Korean military declared it would conduct a preemptive retaliatory strike ‘with an ultra-precision blitzkrieg strike of the Korean style.’”
At the National Guard’s 100th Missile Defense Brigade at Schriever Air Force Base in Colorado Springs, the Washington Examiner’s Abraham Mahshie spoke to some of the missileers behind the country’s missile shield, which consists of 44 interceptors, mostly located in Alaska.
They told Mahshie they are ready for whatever North Korea sends our way. “That threat doesn’t really necessarily scare me because I’ve seen what our ICBMs can do,” said Army Lt. Col. Tim Biart.
Biart was referring to a test in March of 2019, in which two U.S. interceptor missiles shot down a target missile designed to represent the threat from North Korea. You can read more of Mahshie’s behind-the-scenes account here.
A POINTED REMINDER: And just to make sure the world doesn’t forget that America’s nuclear forces are primed and ready, the U.S. launched an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM this morning, one of the regular tests to ensure the nuclear deterrent is “safe, secure, reliable, and effective.”
“The launch calendars are built three to five years in advance, and planning for each individual launch begins six months to a year prior to launch,” said the Air Force Global Strike Command in a statement. “Test launches are not a response or reaction to world events or regional tensions.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Joint Chiefs Chairman Army Gen. Mark Milley and his and senior enlisted adviser Ramon Colón-López speak at a virtual dedication and ribbon-cutting ceremony for the Pentagon’s Gold Star Family display at 11 a.m. Livestreamed on Defense.gov.
SPACE FORCE NO. 2 COVID POSITIVE: Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations, has tested positive for COVID-19.
“He took the test today after learning that a close family member, with whom he had contact, tested positive for the virus,” a spokesperson said last night. “In accordance with established COVID policies, Gen. Thompson is self-quarantining and working remotely from home.”
The Space Force comes under the Department of the Air Force, which says it continues to follow established Department of Defense and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines, including temperature testing, social distancing to the greatest extent possible, the wearing of masks when social distancing is not possible, and contact tracing and quarantining, if needed.
BOEING ALIGNING TO ‘NEW REALITY’: Aerospace giant Boeing reported a loss of $466 million on third-quarter revenue of $14.1 billion, which was down more than $5 billion from the third quarter of 2019.
“The global pandemic continued to add pressure to our business this quarter, and we’re aligning to this new reality,” said Boeing President and CEO Dave Calhoun, who warned the company will likely face more layoffs, largely on its commercial side.
“As we align to market realities, our business units and functions are carefully making staffing decisions to prioritize natural attrition and stability in order to limit the impact on our people and our company,” Calhoun said in a message to Boeing workers. “We anticipate a workforce of about 130,000 employees by the end of 2021.”
That would be a cut of 7,000 jobs beyond the 10% reduction in the workforce already underway. At the beginning of the year, Boeing had 160,000 workers.
‘LITTLE SPARTA’: Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis once called the armed forces of the United Arab Emirates “Little Sparta.” In a new report for the American Enterprise Institute, Kenneth Pollack examines two key questions: Just how good are the Emirati armed forces, and why are they more competent than other Arab militaries?
“The key to this improved performance has been the commitment of the country’s senior leadership, particularly Crown Prince Muhammad bin Zayed (MBZ), who has encouraged and enabled his military to employ a range of workarounds to the economic and culturally driven factors that have hobbled Arab militaries throughout the modern era,” Pollack writes.
But Pollack says the jury is still out on whether the Emirati armed forces can someday join the ranks of the preeminent militaries of the world.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: North Korea’s big nuke doesn’t scare the 100th Missile Defense Brigade
Washington Examiner: DOD and HHS team up on $1.1B coronavirus therapeutics purchase
Washington Examiner: Ex-NYPD officer among five arrested in Chinese ‘Fox Hunt’ scheme to pressure US residents to return to China
Washington Examiner: New border wall in San Diego forces smugglers out to sea, where federal agents wait
Washington Examiner: Miles Taylor, former DHS official and adviser to John Kelly, is ‘Anonymous’
AP: Pompeo, in Indonesia, renews China attacks as US vote
Breaking Defense: Trump Admin Sets Allied Defense Spending Targets, Taiwan Deals Lead Way
USNI News: SECNAV Braithwaite Calls For Light Carrier, ‘Joint Strike Frigate’ ; Sounds Alarm Over Chinese Naval Expansion
AP: Analysis: Iran frets over US vote it insists doesn’t matter
Washington Post: Afghan man arrested in 2008 kidnapping of American journalist David Rohde
Bloomberg: Marines’ Combat Hovercraft From Textron Have Cracked Propellers
Air Force Magazine: Boeing Reports $67M KC-46 Charge, But Expects Tanker Program to Turn Around
Talk Media News: From Esperanto to Yesper, the short happy life of Defense Secretary Mark Thomas Esper
Air Force Magazine: Brown: USAF’s Too Focused on Chinese Assets, Not Enough on Intent
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Holds Talks Over Economic, Security Arrangements With Greenland
Washington Post: Trump administration increased strikes and raids in Yemen, watchdog finds
AP: Lt. Col. Vindman writing memoir, ‘Here, Right Matters’
Kitsap Sun: Navy Conducts First Drone Delivery To Ballistic-Missile Submarine
Defense News: Another Littoral Combat Ship Breaks Down On Deployment
Task & Purpose: A Navy veteran exposes the insanely gross food served on warships in a viral Facebook post
Seapower Magazine: SECNAV Selects USS Wisconsin As Name Of Second Columbia SSBN
Calendar
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 29
9 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group webinar: “Warfighter and Intelligence Mission Success,” as part of the National Security series. https://awsnatsecseries.com/register/
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and U.S. Naval Institute Maritime Security Dialogue pre-recorded webcast: “The Movement Toward Greater Integration in Naval Warfare,” with Vice Adm. James Kilby, deputy chief of naval operations for warfighting requirements and capabilities; Lt. Gen. Eric Smith, commander of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command; and retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, publisher and CEO of the U.S. Naval Institute. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event-update
10 a.m. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion with Heidi Shyu, former assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology. https://www.uschamber.com/event
11 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association and the Aerospace Industries Association webinar: “2020 Joint NDIA/AIA Industrial Security,” with William Lietzau, director of the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency; Lisa Loss, suitability executive agent programs director at the Office of Personnel Management; and Brian Dunbar, assistant director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center’s Special Security Directorate. https://www.ndia.org/events
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 30
2 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies webinar on “Adaptation Under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime, with co-author retired Army Lt. Gen. David Barno, former commander of U.S. and Coalition Forces in Afghanistan; and co-author Nora Bensahel, senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies’ Merrill Center. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
5:30 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual discussion “Airmen in the Fight: AFA Roll Call” with Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, Air Force vice chief of staff. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
MONDAY | NOVEMBER 2
11 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army’s Thought Leaders webinar series with retired Lt. Gen. David Barno and Nora Bensahel, authors of Adaptation Under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime. AUSA membership is not required. To register: https://info.ausa.org
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 5
12 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual event: Post-Election Analysis: What Lies Ahead for America?” with Kay C. James, Heritage Foundation president; William Bennett, former Education Secretary and Drug Czar; Jim Geraghty, senior political correspondent, National Review; John Yoo, Professor of Law, UC Berkeley and fellow, American Enterprise Institute; and Byron York, chief political correspondent, Washington Examiner. https://www.heritage.org/the-constitution/event
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 17
11 a.m. — The Heritage Foundation releases its 2021 Index of U.S. Military Strength, with Texas Rep. Mac Thornberry, ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/virtual-event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Regardless of who the next U.S. president is, the U.S. can expect North Korea to return to its tactic of raising tensions. Pyongyang has historically ramped up tensions early in a new U.S. and South Korean administration to, as one North Korean defector told this author, ‘train them like a dog’ and induce concessions.”
Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
