CONFRONTING GREAT POWERS MEANS GREAT CHANGE: The Air Force’s announcement that it wants to add 74 new squadrons, a 25 percent increase in airpower, is one of the first signs the Pentagon is taking Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’ new National Defense Strategy to heart. In announcing the ambitious expansion — the largest since the Cold War — Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson cited the strategy’s shift from combating terrorism to confronting rising powers Russia and China, what Mattis calls the return to “great power competition.”

HAPPENING TODAY, ROUND THREE: It was all smiles and warm handshakes today in Pyongyang as South Korean President Moon Jae-in arrived in the North Korean capital for his third go-round with Kim Jong Un over denuclearization. The two leaders could be seen on television coverage waving from an open car as they drove to the site of today’s talks, a ruling Workers’ Party building in Pyongyang. Moon and Kim are scheduled to meet again tomorrow before Moon returns to Seoul Thursday.

The Korea monitoring group 38 North sees a shift in tone coming out of North Korea. “In what appears to be an authoritative-level article in Rodong Sinmun on September 15, Pyongyang has strongly reasserted its commitment to a new relationship with the US and to the process of denuclearization,” analyst Robert Carlin wrote on the group’s website. Carlin noted the article’s warm tone toward Trump, even directly citing Trump’s “thanks” to the North for its positive actions thus far.

“Cast as criticism of ‘U.S. conservative politicians,’ the article can also be read as an attack on opponents within the North. No doubt as it is intended to do, the article gives Kim Jong Un more space to maneuver in dealing with the US and with South Korea,” Carlin wrote.

WHAT KIM WANTS NOW: “Kim is not going to give up nuclear weapons if he believes doing so will compromise North Korea’s security. Progress on denuclearization steps — such as a freeze on fissile material production and a declaration detailing North Korea’s program — depends on U.S. support for a joint political declaration on the end of the Korean War,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director, Arms Control Association.

The Rodong Sinmun article makes the same point, that North Korea wants a formal end to the Korean War as a starting point for moving ahead on denuclearization. “With the danger of war constantly looming, it is not possible for us to unilaterally abandon the nuclear weapons that guarantee our sovereignty, right to exist, and right to develop.”

SYRIA SHOOTS DOWN RUSSIAN PLANE, MOSCOW BLAMES ISRAEL: Russia says one of its Il-20 military planes was accidentally shot down by Syrian air defenses, but the Defense Ministry is blaming the loss of the aircraft and the deaths of 15 people on board on Israel.

Russia says the plane was forced into range of Syrian air defenses by an unannounced Israeli airstrike mission, in which four Israeli F-16 jets were attacking Syrian targets in the province of Latakia.

“Israel did not warn the command of the Russian troops in Syria about the planned operation. We received a notification via a hotline less than a minute before the strike, which did not allow the Russian aircraft to be directed to a safe zone,” Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said, according to Sputnik news.

RUSSIA HEARING: David Trachtenberg, deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, testifies to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the status of U.S.-Russia arms control efforts at 10 a.m.

SENATE TEES UP DEFENSE BILL: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell filed cloture on the Pentagon’s 2019 funding bill on Monday evening. The move allows debate to begin today and tees up a final vote on the $674 billion legislation this week. A Senate vote will send it to the House, where a final vote is needed next week when the chamber is back in session so the bill can reach Trump’s desk before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30.

SPACE FORCE TO COST $13 BILLION: Trump’s plan to create a new Space Force military service would cost a total of $13 billion over five years, according to a new Air Force estimate. The service said the Pentagon would need to request $3.32 billion next year as part of the president’s proposed budget request to Congress, according to a memo by Wilson described to the Washington Examiner. The Pentagon would also need to spend another $10 billion over the next four years. The Air Force estimate was first reported by Defense One,

In her keynote remarks at the AFA conference yesterday, Wilson said the Air Force is fully committed to ensuring the United States continues to lead in space, and is not waiting for Congress to approve the separate Space Force. “There are actions that the Air Force can take immediately, without further action from Congress,” Wilson said. “We are moving forward with the restructuring of the Space and Missiles Systems Center so that we buy space systems faster and smarter. We are working with the Joint Staff under the guidance of the secretary of defense and the president to establish and support a unified combatant command for space that puts a warfighter’s focus on space operations.”

U.S. ON THE SIDELINES IN SYRIA: The United States does not have to sit back and watch the last of the Syrian opposition be wiped out by Assad, the Brookings Institution’s Michael O’Hanlon and Steven Heydemann wrote in an opinion piece in the Washington Post.

“The Trump administration has rightly threatened to respond if Assad uses chemical weapons in his planned campaign. While commendable, this ignores that conventional weapons — artillery, airstrikes, barrel bombings — account for something like 99 percent of all casualties,” wrote O’Hanlon and Heydemann. The two analysts say the U.S. could invoke international prohibitions against genocide, and the laws of war under Geneva Conventions, to justify a military response.

“Washington should start by vowing to retaliate in the event of any indiscriminate use of violence by Assad against his own people, in a manner of our choosing. This could be done without dramatically escalating U.S. involvement in the war. For example, a helicopter seen to be barrel-bombing an apartment building could later be destroyed by a long-range surface-to-air missile once back at its base,” they suggest, adding that to be effective deterrence should be linked to a diplomatic strategy.

TRUMP TAKES TRANSGENDER CASE TO SCOTUS: Trump is asking the Supreme Court to intervene and halt a federal court order that he turn over thousands of emails and internal documents related to his decision last year to ban transgender people from military service. “That order requires the executive branch, including the president himself, to produce a detailed privilege log of thousands of documents withheld under the presidential communications privilege — and to do so in a manner that reveals information that is itself privileged,” according to the Supreme Court appeal filed by the Justice Department.

Last month, a Washington district court sided with active-duty transgender troops who are suing Trump and Mattis and ordered the Trump administration to prepare to turn over the internal correspondence about the transgender policy. The plaintiffs want to see the documents as part of pretrial discovery and believe it will shed light on Trump’s claim in July 2017 that he consulted with “my Generals and military experts” before issuing a tweet announcing transgender people would be banned from serving in any capacity.

TO THE VICTORS GO THE QUOTES: Navy Personnel Command issued an apology Monday evening after its Twitter account posted a motivational quote from Confederate Navy Capt. Raphael Semmes.

“It has been brought to our attention that today’s Motivation Monday post came across as insensitive. The series consists of leadership quotes throughout our Navy’s history,” the command said. “We used a poor example and we sincerely apologize if we’ve offended anyone.”

The quote itself was innocuous enough. “A military, or a naval man, cannot got far very far astray, who abides by the point of honor.”

THE RUNDOWN

Associated Press: AP looks at the Koreas’ push for formal end to Korean War

Defense News: Air Force finds new KC-46 deficiencies, jeopardizing planned delivery date

Politico: Trump’s Space Force struggling to launch

Defense One: Congress’s Quantum Science Bill May Not Keep the US Military Ahead of China

AFP: Video: Nuclear facilities in Iran

Breaking Defense: Army Insists 1,000-Mile Missiles Won’t Breach INF Treaty

USNI News: Marines at Camp Lejeune Rescue Nearby Civilians Threatened By Flooding

Business Insider: Bad photoshop fools Iranian media into thinking US aircraft carriers are testing UFOs

The Daily Beast: U.S. Paid $1B to Contractor Accused of Bigotry at Iraq Air Base