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POINT, COUNTERPOINT: In tonight’s State of the Union address President Trump is expected to repeat his claim that ISIS will soon be totally defeated in Syria. But yesterday, the Pentagon’s lead inspector general warned in a report to Congress the illusion of victory may last only about six months. In recent weeks, the U.S. military has unleashed a furious air and artillery assault on the remaining ISIS fighters in Syria — still said to number about 2,000 — in an attempt to liberate the last territory still under ISIS control before executing Trump’s withdrawal order. In the last two weeks of January alone there were 645 strikes — engaging 1,360 separate targets, according to the latest release from Operation Inherent Resolve. But the quarterly report from the DoD’s internal watchdog cites the Pentagon’s own assessment that ISIS “remains a battled-hardened and well-disciplined force,” which seems “unfazed by Coalition airstrikes,” and is “regenerating key functions and capabilities.” It says the Pentagon believes that “absent sustained [counterterrorism] pressure, ISIS could likely resurge in Syria within six to twelve months and regain territory in the middle Euphrates River valley.” IRAQ STILL NEEDS OUTSIDE HELP: In neighboring Iraq — where unlike Syria U.S. troops are present at the invitation of a functioning government — ISIS still poses a threat even after all Iraqi territory has been technically liberated and victory declared. ISIS remains active in rural Iraq, where it continues to conduct IED attacks, assassinations, and to resort to robbery and money laundering to raise funds, the lead DoD IG report says. “The DoD stated this quarter that it will take ‘years, if not decades’ until the Iraqi Security Forces are capable of securing the ‘enduring defeat’ of ISIS without Coalition support,” the report says, noting the ISF is facing shortfalls its ranks that will require years of support. “This assessment of the ISF raises questions about the duration of OIR and how long U.S. troops will need to remain in Iraq.” IT AIN’T OVER: At a backgrounder for reporters at the State Department yesterday, a senior official stressed that the territorial defeat of ISIS is not a declaration of final victory. “The territorial defeat of Daesh [ISIS] in Iraq and Syria will mark this significant milestone against the war against ISIS. But we really have been clear that it doesn’t mean that our campaign against them — them being Daesh — is over,” the official said. “And both the president and the secretary have been forceful in saying that we will do what is necessary across the globe to ensure that defeat.” TRUMP INSULTS IRAQ: The U.S. military goes to great lengths to make sure in all actions and public statements it underscores Iraq is in charge of its country, and that the U.S. operates at the invitation and approval of Baghdad. So, President Trump’s statements Sunday that the U.S plans to use the Al Asad Air Base as a monitoring base to keep an eye on Iran were deeply offensive to the Iraqi sense of sovereignty. “We spent a fortune on building this incredible base. We might as well keep it,” Trump told CBS. “We find these comments strange,” said Iraqi President Barham Salih, speaking at a forum in Baghdad, who noted the Iraqi constitution forbids the use of Iraq as a base to threaten the interests or security of neighboring countries. “Don’t overburden Iraq with your own issues,” he added. AFGHAN HELO PILOT SHORTAGE: Meanwhile, another report from Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction says the U.S. is delivering new Black Hawk helicopters to Afghanistan faster that pilots can be trained to fly them. Building Afghanistan an air force from scratch was a linchpin of the U.S. strategy to turn the fight against the Taliban fully over to the Afghan government. The plan included replacing aging Soviet MI-17 helicopters with 159 American UH-60 Black Hawks, of which 40 would be for the elite Afghan Special Mission forces. But the program is way behind schedule. “It is unlikely that there will be enough pilots trained before all the 159 UH-60s are delivered, the SIGAR audit concludes. “DOD has expressed concerns about the speed at which it can train pilots to keep pace with the new aircraft joining the AAF and has made some decisions that have hindered pilot development. For example, the decision to hold UH-60 qualification training only in Afghanistan may cause dozens of pilots who complete their initial pilot training outside of Afghanistan to wait up to a year to complete the required additional training.” A LITTLE HISTORY: One reason President Barack Obama’s effort to leave Afghanistan to fight the Taliban by itself failed in 2014, is that Afghanistan’s fledgling air force lacked the planes and pilots to support its ground troops. President Trump’s strategy corrected that mistake in 2017, by reauthorizing the U.S. to unleash American air power to go after the Taliban in offensive strikes, not just to come to the aid of Afghan forces in distress. It also ramped up training and sales of U.S. light attack planes and Black Hawk helicopters, in an effort to give Afghanistan the capability to back up its own troops in the field. The SIGAR report shows the Afghan Air Force is still very much a work in progress. VOTEL IN THE HOT SEAT: When top commanders appear before Congress, they pledge to give their unvarnished military advice, even when it may conflict with their boss, the commander in chief in the White House. That will make for interesting viewing of this morning’s Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, featuring Army Gen. Joseph Votel. As head of the U.S. Central Command, Votel is the senior commander responsible for Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Votel may feel even freer to share his concerns given he is due to retire later this year. Votel’s nominated replacement, Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Frank McKenzie, testified at his confirmation hearing in December that after 17 years the Afghanistan war remains at a stalemate. Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY: The unusually secretive officials of U.S. Special Operations Command will be coming out of the shadows for three days this week, as part of 30th annual SO/LIC [Special Operations/Low-Intensity Conflict] Symposium and Exhibition in Crystal City. Among the speakers, at the Hyatt Regency at Reagan National Airport are USSOCOM’S Acquisition Executive James Smith and Director of Science and Technology Lisa Sanders. Other speakers include: Owen West, assistant secretary of defense for special operations/low-intensity conflict. Army Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski, principal military deputy to the assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology; director of the Army Acquisition Corps. Andrew Knaggs, deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations and combatting terrorism. The event agenda is available here. HAPPENING TONIGHT — SOTU: President Trump will deliver his second State of the Union address at 9 p.m. tonight in the House chamber, and according to Kellyanne Conway, counselor to the president, Trump will issue a call for “an end to the politics of resistance, retribution,” and “more comity,” which she felt compelled to spell out. “C-O-M-I-T-Y.” (noun, meaning courtesy and considerate behavior toward others, not to be confused with comedy.) Conway says Trump will “probably not” announce an emergency declaration to shift military construction funds to build more barriers along the U.S. Mexico border. “It has never been his preferred option of first resort, second, 10th, 12th resort. It would be the last resort after Congress has completed its work.” Instead, she said the speech will be “very wide-ranging,” and will include “some of the accomplishments, the vision in moving forward, some of our goals, but also news of the day.” DEFINING MOMENT: South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, an unofficial adviser to the president, has called the fight over the border wall a “defining moment,” and is urging fellow Republicans to close ranks around Trump. “To my Republican colleagues, we do not need a war over the wall. The Democrats are pushing back to the president; the last thing we need as Republicans is for us to undercut his ability to go it alone if he has to,” Graham said on Fox yesterday. Graham told Fox anchor Martha MacCallum, “Well, I think shutting the government down is not a good way to get the wall built. The best way is to get the wall built is to work with Democrats, if they will work with the Republicans, to build a wall and so some other things,” he said. “But it doesn’t look like [House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi’s going to give Democrats much space. So, if I were the president, what I would do is use the power of commander-in-chief to go down to the border, and not just send troops, but actually to erect barriers.” “What’s the difference between a soldier being sent to secure the border, and a soldier being sent to put up a barrier to secure the border? Legally none,” Graham argued. DEMS BEG TO DIFFER: Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., raised doubts about the emergency plan. “He certainly has the authority to declare a national emergency, but where’s the emergency?” Cardin said on CNN yesterday. “I hear from both my Democratic and Republican colleagues that this is a ridiculous way for the president to act,” told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer. “There’s no authority by Congress to act in this direction. This would be a total abuse of executive power. He would have to take money from other projects that are needed. This is not how the president should behave. He should respond to the fact that it’s up to the Congress to appropriate funds, not the president of the United States.” NIELSEN TO FACE DEMS: House Democrats next month will get their first chance to grill Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen about President Trump’s immigration policy, which they say has resulted in the imprisonment of children in the U.S illegally. House Homeland Security Chairman Rep. Bennie Thompson of Mississippi announced yesterday that Nielsen would testify before the panel on March 6. Although Thompson first asked Nielsen to appear before the panel on Jan. 4, the Department of Homeland Security ignored the invitation and the top Republican of the committee, Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama, ultimately helped broker an arrangement. Nielsen last appeared before Congress in December to testify in front of the House Judiciary Committee, when Republicans still held the House majority. MORE SUMMIT PREPS: The State Department has announced that Special Representative Stephen Biegun will travel to Pyongyang to meet with his North Korean counterpart, Kim Hyok-chol to prepare for the President Trump’s second summit Kim Jong Un in Vietnam. That comes as CNN reports that the U.S. and South Korea have reached a preliminary agreement on reimbursement to the U.S. for the cost of keeping nearly 30,000 American troops in South Korea. CNN quotes two State Department officials as confirming South Korea would boost its financial contribution to nearly $1 billion, an increase of about $800 million. The agreement, which addresses one of Trump key concerns, would seem to take off the table, for now, any discussion of a drawdown of U.S. troops as part of a denuclearization deal, although the agreement is just for one year. INHOFE — U.S. ‘OUTGUNNED’: The Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee says the U.S. military is outgunned. “We are not investing enough to keep up.” writes Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., writes in an Op-Ed in the Tulsa World. “We’re falling behind in many areas to China and Russia — not just advanced new weaponry, like hypersonic weapons, directed energy and AI — but also in terms of conventional capabilities. That includes aviation and artillery,” he writes. “At the end of the Cold War, the Russians and Chinese had vastly superior numbers of artillery, but we were in a position to counter their volume because our equipment was so much better. We are now in a situation where both of these countries not only have more artillery than we do, but theirs is better than ours — especially in terms of long-range fires and tactical missiles.” EUROPE BACKING GUAIDO: Following President Trump’s lead, 20 European nations are endorsing Juan Guaido as interim president of Venezuela, and calling on embattled President Nicolas Maduro to step down. The 20 European nations – including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – lent their support to Guaido, after a diplomatic deadline for Maduro to call elections passed without any concession from the regime. The European countries urged Guaido to hold free and fair elections as soon as possible. The announcement raises the possibility that Europe’s largest economies will join the U.S. effort to deprive Maduro of government resources and support Guaido instead. THE RUNDOWN Yonhap: S. Korea-U.S. joint military exercise schedule to be announced: sources Time: ‘Willful Ignorance.’ Inside President Trump’s Troubled Intelligence Briefings Forbes: Five Reasons The Navy’s D5 Missile Is The Most Important Weapon In The U.S. Arsenal AP: US prepares to start building portion of Texas border wall Daily Beast: Senate Democrats Try to Cut Off ‘Emergency Funds’ for Trump’s Border Wall Air Force Magazine: DOD’s Cyber “Red Teams” Stressed as Security Tests Grow Foreign Policy: How U.S. Mission Creep in Syria and Iraq Could Trigger War With Iran Washington Post: Afghan government frozen out of Moscow peace talks with the Taliban Task and Purpose: The Air Force is the only service that decreased its number of suicides in 2018 Military.com: Transgender Navy Submarine Officer Will Accompany Senator to State of the Union Washington Post: Congress braces for Trump diverting military construction money to build the wall ABC News: Top US commander: Political talks with Taliban ‘absolutely’ key part of any endgame in Afghanistan war Washington Post: After bloody insurgent wars, Pentagon launches effort to prevent civilian deaths Bloomberg: Is Your Auditor Being Investigated? 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CalendarTUESDAY | FEBRUARY 5 9:30 a.m. Hart 216. U.S. Central Commander Gen. Joseph Votel testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the fiscal 2020 defense authorization request and the Future Years Defense Program. www.armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. Dirksen 226. Senate Judiciary Committee Nominations Hearing. www.judiciary.senate.gov 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Book Launch: On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War.” www.wilsoncenter.org 10 a.m. 30th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition. Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport. http://www.ndia.org 11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. “The Kremlin and Its Ideological Toolbox.” www.wilsoncenter.org 12 p.m. 1800 M Street N.W., Suite 800. By invitation only — “Preparing for a cyber-enabled economic warfare attack.” www.fdd.org 2:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Rep. Eliot Engel on the Foreign Policy Priorities of the New Democratic Majority.” carnegieendowment.org 3 p.m. 2425 Wilson Boulevard. Association of the U.S. Army Family Readiness Initiatives Forum. Army Secretary Mark Esper, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, and Sgt. Major of the Army Daniel Dailey speak. www.ausa.org WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 6 7 a.m. 30th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition. Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport. Andrew Knaggs, deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations and combating terrorism speaks 2:30 p.m. and Owen West, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict speaks at 4:30 p.m. http://www.ndia.org 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “Maintaining Maritime Superiority: Discussion With the Chief of Naval Operations.” www.atlanticcouncil.org 9:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400. “The 2019 U.S. Missile Defense Review: A Conversation with Under Secretary John C. Rood.” www.hudson.org 10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “A conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on the Senate’s role in foreign policy.” www.aei.org 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee hearing: Evaluation of the Department of Defense’s Counterterrorism Approach. armedservices.house.gov 10 a.m. Dirksen 342. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: Business Meeting. www.hsgac.senate.gov 10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: U.S. Policy in the Arabian Peninsula. foreignaffairs.house.gov 10:15 a.m. Hart 216. Senate Armed Services Committee: Worldwide Threats. www.armed-services.senate.gov 2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Russia’s Policy in Afghanistan.” www.csis.org 4:30 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Peace-Building on the Korean Peninsula: Does Multilateralism Matter?” www.sais-jhu.edu THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 7 8 a.m. 30th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition. Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport. http://www.ndia.org 10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. “Afghan Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani on the Prospects for Peace.” www.usip.org 10:15 a.m. Dirksen G50. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: United States Africa Command and United States Southern Command. www.armed-services.senate.gov 11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street, NW. “Regaining the High Ground at Sea: Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition” https://csbaonline.org 12 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. U.S.-Japan Business Diplomacy. www.sais-jhu.edu 12 p.m. 1800 M Street, NW, Suite 800. By invitation only — Center on Military and Political Power conversation on the implications of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. https://www.fdd.org/ 2 p.m. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations: Business Meeting. www.foreign.senate.gov MONDAY | FEBRUARY 11 3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Is Bigger Better? Concentration, Competition, and Defense Contracting Outcomes.” www.csis.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 12 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “Iran’s Revolution Turns Forty.” www.atlanticcouncil.org 10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee hearing on Outside Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence Policy and Posture. Witnesses: Ellen Tauscher, former under secretary of state for arms control and international security; Bruce Blair, Princeton University; Frank Miller, The Scowcroft Group. 6 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The European Strategic Landscape after the INF Treaty.” www.sais-jhu.edu WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 13 2:30 p.m. Dirksen G50. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: Current Condition of the Military Housing Privatization Initiative. www.armed-services.senate.gov THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 21 11 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Gullible Superpower: U.S. Support for Bogus Foreign Democratic Movements.” www.cato.org THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 28 8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Strategic National Security Space: FY 2020 Budget and Policy Forum.” www.csis.org SUNDAY | MARCH 3 10:30 a.m. Breakfast discussion with rocket scientist behind Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, Dr. Ari Sacher. 8900 Little River Turnpike, Fairfax. jnf.org/vabreakfast |
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