AN UNWELCOME WARNING: When House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (R-OH) went public Wednesday with what he called “a serious national security threat,” he set off a mad scramble that ended up disclosing that the United States has gathered intelligence about a Russian anti-satellite program that would include a “nuclear component” design to blind, disrupt, or destroy U.S. satellites in space.
Such is the political climate in Washington these days that the disclosure sparked backlash from members of his own party, suggesting the revelation compromised sensitive “sources and methods” and was part of a craven political move to help secure funding for Ukraine and approval of a contentious surveillance tool known as FISA.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) told CNN that he was concerned that Turner was “gaslighting the country” by hyping the threat for political gain. “I worry that the motivation to draw so much attention to this is less about intelligence and national security and more about a politician who wants to send $60 billion to Ukraine and wants to reauthorize the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.”
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) is asking House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to open an inquiry into Turner’s actions, which he characterized as a “reckless disregard” for the ramifications of the disclosure. “Mr. Speaker, it is with great reticence that I formally request an inquiry as to any impact the chairman’s statements may have had on U.S. foreign and domestic policy,” Ogles wrote.
READ MORE: WHY DID MIKE TURNER DISCLOSE RUSSIA’S ANTI-SATELLITE WEAPON?
TURNER: NOTIFICATION ‘CLEARED BY THE ADMINISTRATION’: Turner avoided questions from reporters on Capitol Hill yesterday but issued a statement saying his committee’s notification of Congress of the sensitive intelligence was done “in consultation.”
“Language in the bipartisan notification issued by the chair and ranking member to all members of the House was cleared by the administration prior to its release,” Turner said. “The House Intelligence Committee voted 23 to 1 to make this information available to members of Congress.”
But the White House expressed surprise Wednesday that Turner publicly called for declassification even before members were briefed by national security adviser Jake Sullivan yesterday. And at the White House, John Kirby, national security communications adviser, said the U.S. Intelligence Community has “serious concerns about a broad declassification of this intelligence.”
“There’s two things that we always do first when we consider downgrades,” Kirby said. “One, we work with the Intelligence Community to conduct a thorough scrub of that intelligence to make sure that we are protecting sources and methods. And two, we sequence our private diplomacy with our public disclosure to ensure the maximum effect.”
In this case, Kirby said, the Intelligence Community assesses that “starting with private engagement rather than immediately publicizing the intelligence could be a much more effective approach.”
Turner got a measure of support from Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who appeared on Fox News yesterday. “I’m supportive of Chairman Turner’s decision to encourage other members of Congress to look at the underlying information that informs the threat. I hope that others take advantage of it because we have to kind of tackle this on a bipartisan basis and then engage with the administration on an informed one as well,” Krishnamoorthi said. “Chairman Turner has been consulting with us for literally months at this point about this particular issue. And so this has been in the works for some period of time. This is a unique threat.”
RUSSIA DISMISSES NUCLEAR SPACE FEARS
WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE IS WILLING TO SAY: While leaks have disclosed the broad outlines of the concerns about Russia’s program to develop weapons to disable U.S. satellites in times of war, including the possible use of some kind of nuclear or radiological weapons, the White House has been parsimonious with any details.
“This is not an active capability that’s been deployed, and though Russia’s pursuit of this particular capability is troubling, there is no immediate threat to anyone’s safety,” Kirby said at yesterday’s White House briefing. “We are not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on Earth.”
Asked if the U.S. has any defense against the Russian anti-satellite program, Kirby remained circumspect. “It’s still a capability they’re developing. We are still analyzing the information that’s available to that. I would not speak definitively about our strategic deterrent capabilities one way or the other. We just don’t talk about that publicly,” he said. “But we’re taking this potential threat very, very seriously, and we are examining what the best next steps are and what our options might be.”
RUSSIA PURSUING ANTI-SATELLITE CAPABILITY, JOHN KIRBY EXPLAINS
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Munich Security Conference, considered the premiere gathering of defense officials and world leaders, is underway in Germany, with Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken representing the Biden administration. Harris is scheduled to address the conference at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time in remarks that will be livestreamed by the White House.
“I landed in Germany to attend the Munich Security Conference where I will make clear: America stands with our allies and partners, including NATO and Ukraine,” Harris posted on X.
“The Vice President will provide a forceful defense of the Biden-Harris Administration’s worldview and approach to national security, including the importance of fulfilling the U.S. role of global leadership,” the White House said in a statement.
Blinken has a series of one-on-one meetings with his counterparts from around the globe, including with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
ANTONY BLINKEN PRESSES NETANYAHU NOT TO ABANDON HAMAS HOSTAGES
ZELENSKY’S BIG DAY: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to make an appearance at the conference, which runs through Sunday, but first he has bigger fish to fry. With little prospect of joining NATO anytime soon, Zelensky is seeking the next best thing, a series of bilateral security agreements with individual NATO countries. Today Zelensky travels to Berlin to sign a pact with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and then continues to Paris to do the same with French President Emmanuel Macron.
“We are creating a new security architecture for our country that will help us not just here and now but in the long run. And this is something that Ukraine has never had, although it has always needed it,” Zelensky said in a video address last night.
Ukraine has already secured a 10-year security accord with the United Kingdom, signed when British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited Kyiv last month.
UKRAINIAN FORCES OVERWHELMED: While Ukraine continues to chip away at Russia’s Black Sea Fleet with considerable success, the situation has grown more perilous on the ground, where Russia, desperate for some kind of victory, is on the verge of taking Avdiivka, a key eastern city that’s seen some of the fiercest fighting in recent months.
“We’re getting reports from the Ukrainians that the situation’s critical, with the Russians continuing to press Ukrainian positions every single day,” Kirby said at the White House. “Avdiivka is at risk of falling into Russian control. In very large part, this is happening because the Ukrainian forces on the ground are running out of artillery ammunition.”
Reports from the battlefield describe horrific losses as Russia sends “wave after wave of conscript forces to attack Ukrainian positions,” Kirby said. “Russian forces are now reaching Ukrainian tension — trenches actually in Avdiivka, and they’re beginning to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.”
“Our artillery is tearing into them, and still, they charge, dying in masses. Bodies stacking up like it’s some grotesque competition,” said one Ukrainian blogger on X. “This isn’t something new; it’s a horrifying rerun of Bakhmut, with the ground so littered with corpses you’d think we’re farming death.”
“Because Congress is yet to pass the supplemental bill, we’ve not been able to provide Ukraine with the artillery shells that they desperately need to disrupt these Russian assaults,” Kirby said. “The cost of inaction by the Congress is stark, and it’s being borne on the shoulders of Ukrainian soldiers.”
UKRAINE TO TRAIN NATO ON LESSONS FROM WAR AGAINST RUSSIA
IRAN ATTACKS VISUALIZED: The experts over at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies have put together a dynamic graphic that illustrates the breadth of the attacks Iranian-backed militia groups have carried out against U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan since Oct. 17, 2023.
The map shows that there have been at least 165 attacks but only 11 responses by the U.S. as of Feb. 14. The Pentagon confirmed last week that there have been approximately 186 casualties in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan since Oct. 18, of which 130 are traumatic brain injuries.
“U.S. servicemembers stationed in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan — tasked with preventing the resurgence of the ISIS terror caliphate — are under increased attack by the Islamic Republic of Iran and the terrorist proxies it funds, trains, and arms,” Bradley Bowman and Mike Daum of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power said in a statement accompanying the map. “If Washington is going to keep U.S. troops in harm’s way to advance American interests, it must provide them with the military means and political permission to defend themselves and impose consequences that make adversaries think twice before attacking Americans again.”
IRAN CLAIMS OWNERSHIP OVER ANTARCTICA AND PLANS MILITARY BASE THERE
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Russia pursuing anti-satellite capability, John Kirby explains
Washington Examiner: Russia dismisses nuclear space fears
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why did Mike Turner disclose Russia’s anti-satellite weapon?
Washington Examiner: US intercepted Iranian weapons intended for Houthis
Washington Examiner: Antony Blinken presses Netanyahu not to abandon Hamas hostages
Washington Examiner: Netanyahu reiterates intent for ‘powerful’ offensive in Rafah
Washington Examiner: Iran claims ownership over Antarctica and plans military base there
Washington Examiner: Ukraine to train NATO on lessons from war against Russia
Washington Examiner: FBI informant central to Biden family investigation indicted over false statements
Washington Examiner: House GOP rallies behind ‘blacklisting’ lobbyists for Chinese military-tied companies
Washington Examiner: Editorial: No more delays: House should aid Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden’s Defense Department is trying to hide its DEI agenda
AP: Russia’s prison service says that imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny has died
NBC News: U.S. conducted cyberattack on suspected Iranian spy ship
ABC News: US Disrupts Russian Hacking Campaign That Infiltrated Home, Small Business Routers: DOJ
Bloomberg: US Cancels Multibillion-Dollar Classified Military Satellite Program
Euronews: UK and Latvia Lead Coalition to Provide Thousands of Drones to Ukraine
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Russian Anti-Satellite Weapon Disclosure Highlights Space Force Warnings
CBS News: Houthis Get Critical Support From Iran For Red Sea Attacks, U.S. Navy Admiral Says
New York Times: Israelis Breach Hospital In Gaza That Was Refuge
Breaking Defense: In Stark Warning, Navy Secretary Tells Industry To Deliver, Not ‘Goose Your Stock Prices’
Navy Times: Navy To Establish Second Surface Drone Unit This Spring
Defense One: Navy Leaders Want More Code-Loving Sailors At Sea
Vanity Fair: Life Aboard A Nuclear Submarine As The U.S. Responds To Threats Around The Globe
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Field-Testing New Tactical Command & Control Modules
Defense News: Pentagon’s Replicator Effort Will Focus on Software Next
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Combat Squadrons Aim for New Way to Deploy in Place
DefenseScoop: LaPlante Hints at Plan to Continue Air Force’s Boost-Glide Hypersonic Missile Efforts
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Says It Is Not Aware of B-21 Quality Problems Linked to Spirit AeroSystems
Defense One: USAF Plans Stealthy Tankers for ‘Extreme Threat Areas’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Adapt or Die: Big Air Force Changes Demand Buy-In from Within
Wall Street Journal: Europe Is Boosting Military Spending. It’s Still Not Enough.
Military.com: Chuck Mawhinney, The Deadliest Sniper In Marine Corps History, Dies At 75
Military.com: The Air Force’s First Female Enlisted Leader Broke the ‘Brass Ceiling.’ Here’s Her View on Retirement.
The Cipher Brief: An Apocalypse in the Making: Hunting Down Hamas Leader in Rafah
The Cipher Brief: Hezbollah’s Attacks, Israel’s Retaliation and Fears of a Two-Front War
The Cipher Brief: Made In Iran: The Drones that are Killing Americans, Israelis, and Ukrainians
Forbes: Opinion: Threats To U.S. Elections Are Creating A New Kind Of National Security Challenge
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 16
7:45 a.m. 11493 Sunset Hills Rd., Reston, Virginia — Government Executive Media Group Washington Technology discussion: “Inside the New National Defense Industrial Strategy,” with Danielle Miller, acting deputy assistant defense secretary for industrial base resilience, and Nick Wakeman, editor in chief of Washington Technology https://events.washingtontechnology.com/defense-industrial-strategy
8:30 a.m. Munich, Germany — Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks at the Munich Security Conference, which runs through Sunday at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Livestream at https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Outpacing China: Expediting the Fielding of Innovation,” with testimony from William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; and Defense Innovation Unit Director Doug Beck https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/outpacing-china-expediting-fielding-innovation
10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace Institute of Current World Affairs, and American Purpose discussion: “Life After Putin: Potential Scenarios for a Post-Authoritarian Russia,” with Sergei Guriev, professor of economics at Sciences Po Paris University; Mikhail Zygar, founding editor in chief of Dozhd; Miriam Lanskoy, senior director for Russia and Eurasia at the National Endowment for Democracy; and Jorgan Andrews, former deputy assistant secretary of state for international narcotics and law enforcement affairs and USIP fellow https://www.usip.org/events/life-after-putin
10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “U.S. Policy and the Israel-Hamas War,” with State Department Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues David Satterfield https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/02/16/u.s.-policy-and-israel-hamas-war
12 p.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: on “U.S.-Korea Relations,” with Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA) https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 21
7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd, Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army’s “Coffee Series” discussion with Army Sgt. Maj. Michael Weimer https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/sma-weimer
2 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “The Middle East, Russia’s war in Ukraine two years on and the state of American foreign policy,” with, former defense secretary and CIA director Robert Gates https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 22
2:30 p.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual discussion: “The War in Ukraine After Two Years,” with retired Lt. Gen. David Barno, professor of practice and senior fellow, Merrill Center of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Nora Bensahel, visiting professor of strategic studies, Merrill Center of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs https://www.addevent.com/event
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 27
3 p.m. — Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center virtual forum: “Nevada National Security Site: a Premier National Security Asset and its NNSA Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Stewardship Mission,” with retired Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, president, Mission Support and Test Services; David Funk, vice president, enhanced capabilities for subcritical experiments, Mission Support and Test Services; and Melissa Hunt, director, Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation for Global Security, Mission Support and Test Services https://www.eventbrite.com/e/nnsa-nevada-national-security-site
