Daily on Defense — Dec. 9, 2016 — Veto-proof NDAA sent to Obama

NOT SO PRETTY ON THE SPENDING SIDE: Congress on Friday was in a state of suspended animation, with one foot out the door in the hope of returning home for the Christmas break, but another foot planted firmly in town just in case there’s no spending deal, and a partial government shutdown happens on Friday. The House did what it could Thursday, by easily passing a continuing spending resolution to keep the government open until late April. Normally, the 326-96 vote would be enough, especially with 208 Republicans and 118 Democrats voting to end the drama and skip town. But in the Senate, there are still hangups. Coal-state Democrats, led by Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, are pushing for a longer extension of a miners’ healthcare program. The bill passed by the House extends it for just four months. Pete Kasperowicz has more here.

Reminder, the defense portion of the CR increased funding for submarines, helicopters and tankers, so defense watchers should be watching.

CARTER IN KABUL: Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s round-the-world farewell tour has taken him to Afghanistan, where he landed this morning on a visit to thank U.S. troops for their service during the holidays and to confer with his top commanders and senior Afghan officials including President Ashraf Ghani. Carter will get a classified version of the briefing that Afghanistan commander Gen. John  Nicholson gave reporters at the Pentagon last week, where he said Afghan security forces control areas of the country where almost two-thirds of the population resides, while the Taliban controls less than 10 percent, and about 25 percent is contested.  “Since the start of the Taliban’s campaign in April, the Afghan security forces have prevented them from accomplishing their strategic objectives,” Nicholson said.

WE DON’T DO BODY COUNTS, UNLESS WE DO: A senior military official told reporters at the Pentagon yesterday that over the past two years the U.S. and its allies have killed a football stadium full of Islamic State fighters, a “conservative” estimate of 50,000. Since the days of the Vietnam war, the U.S. military has insisted that body counts, which were a regular feature of the notorious “5 o’clock follies” in Saigon in the 1960s, are not a good metric for success. ”I’m not into morbid body counts,” the official said, “but that kind of volume matters, that kind of impact on the enemy.” The official deflected questions about how the counter-ISIS effort might change under President Trump. “I work for one commander in chief at a time,” he demurred, but did indicate there are ways to step up the pressure, though not necessarily by stepping up the bombing campaign. Right now he said the focus is on beefing up the so-called “hold force,” to make sure hard-won gains are not lost. “The discussion of life after Mosul and life after Raqqa are happening in earnest right now,” the official said. And the biggest headache right now for the U.S. is its freelancing ally Turkey, which he said is “interloping” in both Iraq and Syria, and insisting on a major role in areas where there is a heavy Turkmen population. He praised the mix of Kurdish and Arab fighters advancing on Raqqa, but said they keep looking over their shoulders fearing Turkey will attack them from behind. “We’re trying to balance that as well.”

HE DIDN’T SEE IT COMING: Back when President Obama called ISIS the “jayvee team,” his intel briefings gave no indication that the Islamic State was becoming a force that would storm across Iraq, capturing large swaths of territory. “The ability of ISIL to initiate major land offensives, that was not on my intelligence radar screen,” the president told Fareed Zakaria, in an interview that aired as part of a CNN special Wednesday night. And with Aleppo about to fall to the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who is increasing his grip on power, is Obama comfortable with his decision to keep America out of Syria’s civil war? “I think it is the smartest decision from a menu of bad options that were available to us. Have we been flawless in the execution of what is a complicated policy in the region? Absolutely not. I think flawless is not available when it comes to foreign policy or the presidency, at least, with mere mortals like me at the helm. Have we made the best decisions that were available to us at each stage? The answer is yes,” Obama said.

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.

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STAR-STRUCK ANGST: Our Daily on Defense item yesterday, in which we pointed that in 2009 Obama also had three retired four-stars in his first administration, prompted a lot of debate of whether the two situations are analogous and whether there is a double standard given the outpouring of anxiety over Trump’s nominations, Eddie Scarry writes. Both presidents picked generals for their national security adviser, Trump tapping retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, and Obama picking NATO commander retired Gen. Jim Jones. No one had a problem putting former Army chief Gen. Eric Shinseki in charge of veteran’s affairs, after all he was a veteran. But the same standard, it’s hard to say that Gen. John Kelly is not a good match for homeland security, since in his job as U.S. Southern Command leader he worked hand-in-glove with DHS on border security and drug interdiction. Obama picked retired Adm. Dennis Blair as his director of national security, a job that is filled today by retired Air Force Gen. James Clapper. The real dispute seems to come down to a single appointment, Gen. James Mattis, to head the Pentagon, a job that by law is supposed to go to a civilian. But the mandated seven years out of uniform is not a magic number (it used to be 10), and it’s not like we’re facing a Seven Days in May scenario.

MORE FLYNN FALLOUT: Sen. Tim Kaine on Thursday accused Flynn of being either “highly gullible” or unable to determine what is fact or fiction by pushing conspiracy theories about Democrats, Al Weaver writes. Kaine made the remarks to CNN Thursday at the tail end of the 114th Congress, and took on both Flynn and Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, who Trump wants to take over as head of the Environmental Protection Agency. “Gen. Flynn’s trafficking in conspiracy stories that a fourth grader would find incredible suggests either that he’s highly gullible or that he’s so consumed with malice that he loses his ability to judge what is fact and what is fiction,” Kaine said about Flynn, who has come under attack for spreading “fake news.”

FORBES’ FAN CLUB GROWS: Nine Republican lawmakers sent a letter to Vice President-elect Mike Pence in support of Rep. Randy Forbes as secretary of the Navy. The letter, which was released on Thursday, was signed by Reps. Rob Wittman, Joe Wilson, Walter Jones, Jackie Walorski, Duncan Hunter, Vicky Hartzler, Mike Conaway, Bradley Byrne and Ryan Zinke.

THEY’RE TALKING AGAIN: Trump and McCain are back on speaking terms, despite engaging in a war of words throughout the 2016 election cycle, Joel Gehrke writes. McCain, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee that will hold hearings on Mattis’ nomination to lead the Defense Department, has spoken with Trump twice since the election. “We talked about nominations and people for jobs, particularly like Mattis,” McCain told the Washington Examiner on Thursday. The conversations went “fine,” the 2008 Republican presidential nominee said, despite the insults exchanged during the election cycle. “It was business.”

CHOKING ON “BALONEY”: We’re guessing this word will haunt Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, at least for a little while. The potential nominee to lead the State Department used the word to dismiss the claim that Russia violates human rights and said the reporter who leveled the charge was biased due to her Eastern European heritage. Joel Gehrke has the bizarre exchange between Rohrabacher and the reporter here. The comments didn’t go over well with other GOP lawmakers. “There’s a lunatic fringe in every organization,” McCain said. Sen. Jeff Flake seemed to agree when he was asked about the House lawmaker. “Those don’t represent my views,” Flake said. Flake also hedged when asked if the exchange was enough to get Senate Republicans to vote against Rohrabacher should be be nominated. “After those kind of comments, that’s — let’s just say, that’s not where we are,” Flake said.

SEQUESTER HURTING MORE THAN POCKETBOOKS: A poll released Thursday by Blue Star Families found that sequestration, and the resulting benefits cuts and fiscal uncertainty, are damaging the trust and relationship between the military and political leaders. Only 19 percent of military families say they would recommend serving in the military to others “if the current trend of cutting benefits continues.”

LETHAL AID TO UKRAINE: Ukraine would receive lethal military aid from the United States if 27 senators who have appealed to Trump get their way, Joel Gehrke writes. “Russia has launched a military land-grab in Ukraine that is unprecedented in modern European history,” the lawmakers, led by Republican Sen. Rob Portman and Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, wrote in a letter to Trump. “We believe it is in our vital national security interest to uphold these norms and values, and prevent America’s commitment to its allies and ideals from being called into question.”

PROGRESS ON ALEPPO? From our “too little, too late” file, the State Department on Thursday indicated there could be some imminent progress between the U.S. and Russia on a way to restart negotiations over how to reduce the violence in Syria, and specifically in Aleppo, Pete Kasperowicz writes. The U.S. and Russia recently resumed bilateral talks on Syria, after Secretary of State John Kerry shut off the talks after a humanitarian aid convoy was bombed. State Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau told reporters that the U.S. and Russia are still talking about the “modalities” of the talks, which involves figuring out who would be involved in the substantive talks and what topics would come up. But she said some progress could be announced soon. “The specific nature of those talks … are still being worked out. As these technical discussions are finalized, I’ll have more to offer,” she said. “It might be later today, it might be tomorrow.”

Meanwhile some 8,000 civilians are desperately trying to get out of the city, as Syrian government forces close in. Russia said combat operations have paused to allow the exodus, but reports this morning suggest the bombs are still falling.

HOW THE MARINES TRAIN WOMEN: Separate but equal? The PBS Newshour has a fascinating look at the training for female Marine recruits who are signing up for the most physically and mentally grueling combat assignments. The big question: Is the service helping or hurting women Marines’ readiness by separating their training from male counterparts? In a two-part series, PBS follows three female would-be Marines as they embark on tougher training than women have undergone before. You can join them in boot camp here.

MARINE HORNET DEATH: The pilot of a U.S. Marine F/A-18 Hornet that crashed off the coast of Japan Wednesday did not survive the crash, the Marine Corps announced Thursday. The pilot was reported to have ejected from the plane as it was going down over water about 120 miles southeast of the Japanese city of Iwakuni, but when he was located by search teams he was not alive. The Marine Corps has identified the pilot as Capt. Jake Frederick.

This is the sixth Marine Hornet crash this year, according to the Naval Safety Center. Four Marine Hornets have crashed since Oct. 25.

WELSH JOINS NORTHROP: Former Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh joined the board of Northrop Grumman, the company announced on Thursday. Welsh’s appointment increases the board’s size to 14. Welsh is dean of the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. Welsh retired from the Air Force this year.

SALES APPROVED: The U.S. approved five foreign arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Morocco on Thursday totalling almost $8 billion. Among the proposed sale items are 48 Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters and more than 30 Apache AH-64E helos.

HELOS TO CHILE: Sikorsky has successfully concluded contract negotiations with the Chilean Air Force for six S-70i(TM) Black Hawk helicopters for the service’s medium-lift helicopter recapitalization program.

THE RUNDOWN

Military Times: Combat vet Duckworth worried Congress is ignoring importance of civilian-run military

Defense One: Trump May Be on Collision Course with Congress over Russian Hacking

USNI News: Stackley Defends LCS-To-Frigate Transition Plan During Contentious Hearing

UPI: Bath Iron Works wins DDG 51 yard services contract

Military.com: New Details Emerge on Littoral Combat Ship Breakdowns

Defense News: Israel ‘Ready’ to Operate F-35s Without Ever Actually Flying Them

Washington Post: Army reopens investigation into detainee’s death after Special Forces soldier’s Fox News interview

Military.com: US Airstrike Hits Mosul Hospital Used by ISIS

Calendar

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 9

7:30 a.m. 300 1st St. SE. Gen. Jay Raymond, the commander of Air Force Space Command, speaks at a breakfast event. mitchellaerospacepower.org

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Officials from the Army, Marine Corps and special operations communities talk about what requirements each service is looking for in future vertical lift capabilities. csis.org

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Rep. Ryan Zinke, a former Navy SEAL, discusses his new book, American Commander. heritage.org

MONDAY | DECEMBER 12

10 a.m. 25 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A panel talks about what the U.S. surveillance policy should be in 2017 and beyond. cnas.org

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 13

8 a.m. 1250 S. Hayes St., Arlington, Va. Defense One hosts a briefing on space and satellite communications. defenseone.com

12:30 p.m. Livestream. A panel of experts discusses the personality and profile of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. cfr.org

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 14

8:00 a.m. 1250 S. Hayes St., Arlington, Va. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Paul Zukunft speaks at a Navy League breakfast event that is closed to press. navyleague.org

9 a.m. 1331 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Center for New American Security releases a new report titled, “Future Foundry: A New Strategic Approach for Military-Technical Advantage.” cnas.org

9:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Hamdullah Mohib, the Afghanistan ambassador to the U.S., delivers the keynote at an event focused on American strategy in Afghanistan under President-elect Trump. heritage.org

9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy, Arlington, Va. Lt. Gen. William Bender, the Air Force’s chief information officer, will discuss information dominance in his service. mitchellaerospacepower.org

6:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Wall Street Journal reporter Jay Solomon discusses his new book, The Iran Wars: Spy Games, Bank Battles, and the Secret Deals That Reshaped the Middle East. press.org

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 15

10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Wilson Center hosts an event looking at what 2016 meant for relations between U.S. and China. wilsoncenter.org

4 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. A panel of experts discusses what opportunities the next administration has in nuclear security. stimson.org

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 16

1 p.m. Livestream. The Council on Foreign Relations hosts United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. cfr.org