TRUMP UPBEAT AS UKRAINIANS SUFFER: It’s true, President Donald Trump has a lot on his plate these days, what with Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba, but still, he seems oddly disconnected from the latest developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine, both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
As Russia continues to reject key aspects of the current peace proposal, Trump continued to insist things are going swimmingly. “I think we’re doing very well with Ukraine and Russia,” Trump told reporters at the White House yesterday. “For the first time, I’m saying that, I think we’re going to maybe have some good news.”
And Trump seemed to be under the impression that — thanks to his special relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin — he secured a week-long pause in Russian attacks, while Ukrainians — thousands without heat — shiver through sub-zero temperatures and the largest drone and missile strikes of the year.
“I did call up President Putin,” Trump said. “I asked him if you wouldn’t shoot for a period of one week, no missiles going into Kyiv or any other towns. And he’s agreed to do it. So, it’s something.”
It’s something, but it’s not something that’s providing any relief to Ukraine. “Over 70 missiles and 450 attack drones were launched across Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Kyiv region, Dnipro, Odesa, and Vinnytsia. They were all directed toward civilian targets,” Ukraine’s defense ministry said on its official X account.
“The temperature in Ukraine is below -20°C (-4°F),” said the defense ministry. “Nine people injured. Homes, energy facilities, a kindergarten damaged. Fires in Kyiv.”
A DAY BEFORE SCHEDULED PEACE MEETING, RUSSIA LAUNCHES 450 DRONES INTO UKRAINE
RUTTE IN KYIV: As NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte arrived in Kyiv to show support ahead of tomorrow’s three-way talks in Abu Dhabi between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to allies to do more to rearm its air defenses, which are facing a critical shortage of interceptor missiles.
“Taking advantage of the coldest days of winter to terrorize people is more important to Russia than turning to diplomacy,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted on X. “And this very clearly shows what is needed from our partners and what can help. Timely delivery of missiles for air defense systems and the protection of normal life are our priority. Without pressure on Russia, there will be no end to this war.”
Despite the positive pronouncements from Washington, there is little sign that either side is willing to budget on the key remaining issues. Ukraine is unwilling to make any territorial concessions without firm security guarantees, and Russia refuses to accept any European troops on Ukrainian soil as part of a security package.
Trump blamed his failure to achieve peace on Zelensky’s and Putin’s deep antipathy for each other. “There’s tremendous hatred between Zelensky and Putin, tremendous hatred. I mean, it’s a shame,” Trump said yesterday. “I thought my relationship with President Putin would give us a, you know, much easier road.”
BOTH SIDES WOOING THE U.S.: While the two days of negotiations scheduled for Abu Dhabi are ostensibly about making progress on outstanding issues, in many ways the session is more about each side trying to convince the U.S. — represented by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — that they are not the obstacle to peace.
“Our team continues working with the American side so that real decisions for the sake of peace can be scaled up,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address. “We will also have our own bilateral format with the United States. There are issues to be agreed upon; there is substance that requires further work. On security guarantees – we are ready.”
In recent days, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has flatly rejected any deal that would leave Zelensky in power, and has said “deployment of so-called multi-national forces on Ukrainian territory … to deter Russia once the hostilities have ended,” would “create a foothold to continue their fight against Russia.”
“The deployment of military units, facilities, warehouses, and other infrastructure of the Western countries in Ukraine is unacceptable to us and will be considered as foreign intervention that directly threatens Russia’s security,” Lavrov said yesterday in Moscow.
UKRAINE RIPS FIFA PRESIDENT AS ‘MORAL DEGENERATE’ AFTER FLOATING END TO RUSSIA BAN
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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NOTE TO READERS: Daily of Defense will not publish Monday, February 16 as we observe the Presidents Day federal holiday and recover from Sunday night’s Super Bowl festivities.
HAPPENING TODAY: END OF SHUTDOWN? There’s a good chance the House will vote today to end the partial federal government shutdown that began Saturday and affects several government agencies, the biggest being the Department of Defense. But it hinges on House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) getting at least 217 of the 218 GOP House members to vote as a block to advance the measure to a final vote.
“We need to get the Government open, and I hope all Republicans and Democrats will join me in supporting this Bill, and send it to my desk WITHOUT DELAY,” President Trump posted on Truth Social, promising to sign the bill immediately if it passes. “We cannot have another long, pointless, and destructive Shutdown that will hurt our Country so badly — One that will not benefit Republicans or Democrats. I hope everyone will vote, YES!”
Trump blamed last year’s lengthy shutdown for spiking his economic numbers, robbing him of bragging rights. “We were at 5.6% GDP, and we lost a point and a half because of the 42-day shutdown. Think of that. We would have been at 7%, nobody ever saw a number like seven,” Trump said.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) was pushing to add the SAVE Act to the package, a bill that would require a passport or birth certificate to vote, which Democrats argue would kick at least 21 million American citizens off the voting rolls because they lack ready access to those documents.
“There can be NO CHANGES at this time. We will work together in good faith to address the issues that have been raised,” Trump said in his post.
HOUSE DEMOCRATS UNDECIDED ON SCHUMER’S DEAL TO REOPEN GOVERNMENT
ALSO TODAY: TRUMP BURIES HATCHET WITH ‘SICK MAN’: President Trump is scheduled to meet privately with Colombian President Gustavo Petro at 11 a.m. in the Oval Office. Trump, you may recall, called Petro “a very sick man who likes to make cocaine,” and told reporters on Air Force One, “he will not be around for very long.”
But Petro called Trump last month to patch things up, and wound up with an invitation to meet with Trump at the White House. “He’s been very nice over the last month or two. He was certainly critical before that, but somehow, after the Venezuelan raid, he became very nice. He changed his attitude very much,” Trump said at the White House. “I look forward to seeing him. He’s coming in. We’re going to be talking about drugs because tremendous amounts of drugs come out of his country.”
U.S., IRAN TO MEET FRIDAY: With Trump still brandishing the threat of a major attack on Iran as an option, as U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff is already in the region and set to sit down with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to see if the two countries can agree on a new nuclear deal.
Trump said in 2025 that a new deal was no longer necessary because U.S. B-2 bomber strikes last year — dubbed Midnight Hammer — “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, satellite pictures have shown new construction at Iranian nuclear sites, indicating Iran is reconstituting its program.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said yesterday he has instructed Araghchi to “pursue fair and equitable negotiations” with the United States.
“Iran and the U.S. are at a fateful point in time,” Araghchi posted on X, referencing a CNN interview he did Sunday. “We can achieve a fair and equitable deal to ensure no nuclear weapons. This mutually beneficial outcome is possible even in a short period of time. On the other hand, there may be miscalculation and even aggression. Iran is equally prepared for that scenario.”
STEVE WITKOFF EXPECTED TO MEET WITH IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER THIS WEEK
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: A day before scheduled peace meeting, Russia launches 450 drones into Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Steve Witkoff expected to meet with Iranian foreign minister this week
Washington Examiner: European army would be ‘extremely dangerous,’ EU official warns amid NATO rift
Washington Examiner: Ukraine rips FIFA president as ‘moral degenerate’ after floating end to Russia ban
Washington Examiner: House Democrats undecided on Schumer’s deal to reopen government
Washington Examiner: Noem: DHS deploying body cameras to all federal police in Minneapolis ‘immediately’
Washington Examiner: India agrees to stop buying Russian oil as trade deal reached with US
Washington Examiner: Court halts Trump effort to ban unannounced congressional visits to ICE facilities
Washington Examiner: Sanctioned Iranian leader denounces US, but his daughter lives here
Washington Examiner: Trump administration looks to create $12 billion critical mineral reserve
Washington Examiner: Greenland independence could make the island a major US ally, activist argues
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Iran’s nuclear program is buried, not deadIran’s nuclear program is buried, not dead
The Hill: Hegseth: ‘We’re More Than Prepared’ if Iran Won’t Negotiate Nukes
Fox News: Sanctioned Russian Jet Touches Down in Cuba, Echoing Secret Flights Before Maduro’s Ouster
Wall Street Journal: SpaceX, xAI Tie Up, Forming $1.25 Trillion Company
Air & Space Forces Magazine: After 11-Month Vacancy, Air Force Has a New Vice Chief
DefenseScoop: Air Force Conducts Live Test of Low-Cost Cruise Missile Developed for Ukraine
The War Zone: These Planes Are Mimicking Enemy Shahed-136 Drones in US Military War Games
AP: Even small EU nations go big on arms production, sending drones to the Ukrainian front and beyond
Defense News: Russia Claims $15 Billion in 2025 Arms Exports, with Focus on Africa
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Midnight Hammer Lessons: USAF Needs More Tankers, Munitions
AP: An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war
Politico: Trump’s Golden Dome, a Year in, Is Struggling to Take Shape
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Recruiting ‘Looking Good’ for 2026, With Growing Backlog
Breaking Defense: Singapore Acquires Used C-130Hs to Replace Even Older C-130s
Air & Space Forces Magazine: NRO Pulls Back the Veil On Cold War-Era Intelligence Satellite Program
THE CALENDAR:
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 3
8:30 a.m. 1744 R St. NW — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. discussion: “Wired for Influence: Inside China Global Tech Playbook,” with House Intelligence ranking member Jim Himes (D-CT); Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH); Lindsay Gorman, managing director and senior fellow, German Marshall Fund Technology; Sharinee Jagtiani, senior Culture Center officer at GMF Technology; and Dylan Welch, China technology analyst at GMF Technology https://www.gmfus.org/event/wired-influence-inside-chinas-global-tech-playbook
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Strategic Competition in an Unconstrained, Post-New START Treaty Environment,” with testimony from retired Adm. Charles Richard, former commander, U.S. Strategic Command and incoming CEO of the Institute for Defense Analyses; Rose Gottemoeller, lecturer, Center for International Security and Cooperation and Hoover Institution research fellow at Stanford University; and Timothy Morrison, former deputy assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior fellow, Hudson Institute http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing: “Frontline Defenders: How the Coast Guard Deployable Specialized Forces Combat Narcoterrorists and other Maritime Threats on the High Seas” http://homeland.house.gov
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “One Month Without Maduro: On the Ground Perspectives,” with Colette Capriles, professor at Simon Bolivar University; Carolina Alcaide, former Caracas correspondent at Voice of America; and Jason Marczak, senior director, Atlantic Council Latin America Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/one-month-without-maduro
10 a.m. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “STARTing Over? Russo-American Arms Control at a Crossroads,” with Rose Gottemoeller, lecturer at Stanford University Freeman Spogli Institute and former undersecretary of State for arms control and international security; Anton Khlopkov, director, Center for Energy and Security Studies; Charles Oppenheimer, founder and co-executive director, Oppenheimer Project and CEO of Oppenheimer Energy; Scott Sagan, co-director and senior fellow, Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation and professor of political science at Stanford University; Peter Slezkine, senior fellow and director, Stimson Center Russia Program; Rachel Stohl, senior vice president of research programs at the Stimson Center and senior fellow and director, Stimson Center Conventional Defense Program; and Feodor Voitolovsky, director, Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of World Economy and International Relations https://www.stimson.org/event/starting-over-russo-american-arms-control-at-a-crossroads/
11 a.m. — Middle East Institute webinar: “Islamic Republic: On the Brink or Still Standing?” with Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs; Alex Vatanka, senior fellow, Middle East Institute; Nazee Moinian, associate fellow, Middle East Institute https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Securing Critical Mineral Supply: A Government-Industry Dialogue,” with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum; John Jovanovic, chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the U.S.; Tom Hardy, deputy director and COO of the U.S. Trade and Development Agency; Assistant Energy Secretary Audrey Robertson ; and -Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg https://www.csis.org/events/securing-critical-mineral-supply
2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and Counterterrorism Subcommittee hearing: “Countering Terrorism in North Africa: Opportunities and Challenges,” with testimony from Robert Palladino, senior bureau official in the State Department Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs; and retired Army Lt. Col. Joel Borkert, deputy coordinator for programs and military coordination at the State Department Bureau of Counterterrorism http://foreign.senate.gov
2:30 p.m. 360 Cannon — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing: “Securing Syria Transformation by Diminishing Russia Influence,” with Anna Borschevskaya, senior fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Michael Doran, senior fellow and director at the Hudson Institute Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East; and Richard Gutzen, nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council https://www.youtube.com/live/NR5BMLs5E7Q
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “New START Expiration,” with Heather Williams, director, CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues; Tom Karako, director, CSIS Missile Defense Project; and Kari Bingen, director, CSIS Aerospace Security Project https://www.csis.org/events/new-start-expiration
3 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Integrating and Securing Operational Technology,” with Jeffrey Sanders, program manager at the Naval Information Warfare Systems Command Cyber Security Program Office; and Sean Appelgate, chief technology officer at Swish https://events.govexec.com/integrating-and-securing-operational-technology-ot/
3 p.m. G-50 Dirksen — Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT); and House Oversight and Government Reform ranking member Robert Garcia (D-CA) public forum on the tactics and use of force by agents of the Homeland Security Department, with testimony from Marimar Martinez, U.S. citizen and resident of Chicago, Ill., who was shot five times by Customs and Border Patrol agents; Aliya Rahman, U.S. citizen and resident of Minneapolis, Minn.; Martin Daniel Rascon, U.S. citizen and resident of San Bernardino, Calif.; Antonio Romanucci, attorney representing the family of Renee Nicole Macklin Good, a U.S. citizen and resident of Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Seth Stoughton, former police officer and professor at the University of South Carolina School of Law and faculty director, Excellence in Policing and Public Safety Program https://www.facebook.com/SenBlumenthal
6 p.m. 58 East 68th Street, New York, New York — Council on Foreign Relations discussion: “Open to Debate: Should the United States Annex Greenland?” with Alexander Gray, American Foreign Policy Council senior fellow; Max Boot, CFR senior fellow for national security studies; Michael Pillsbury, senior adviser to the Heritage Foundation president’s office; and Kori Schake, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow https://www.cfr.org/event?
6 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Integrating and Securing Operational Technology,” with Jeffrey Sanders, program manager at the Naval Information Warfare Systems Command Cyber Security Program Office; and Sean Appelgate, chief technology officer at Swish https://events.govexec.com/integrating-and-securing-operational-technology-ot/
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 4
9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Security Beyond Defense: Central Europe Role in the Transatlantic Economy,” with Polish Undersecretary of State for Economic Development and Technology Michal Baranowski; former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Mark Brzezinski, president and CEO, Brzezinski Global Strategies; and Marta Pawlak, legal and public policy director at the American Chamber of Commerce in Poland https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/central-europe-week-2026-facing-a-new-strategic-reality
10 a.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies virtual discussion: “Reimagining Mediterranean Security with Greek Minister for National Defense Nikos Dendias,” with FDD Executive Director Jonathan Schanzer https://www.fdd.org/events/2026/02/03/reimagining-mediterranean-security
2 p.m. — Center for American Progress Zoom discussion: “A Plan to Rein in the Department of Homeland Security,” with Greta Bedekovics, CAP director of democracy; Debu Gandhi, CAP senior director, immigration policy: Dan Herman, CAP senior director, national security, accountability, and reform; and Allie Preston, CAP senior policy analyst, criminal justice reform https://rsvp2.americanprogress.org/reiningindhs/email1
2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Europe and Regional Security Cooperation Subcommittee hearing: “A Pathway to European Energy Security,” with testimony from Geoffrey Pyatt, senior managing director for energy and critical minerals, McLarty Associates and fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.; and Dan Byers, vice president of policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Energy Institute, Washington, D.C. http://foreign.senate.gov
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 5
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “A New Strategic Reality for the Transatlantic Relationship,” with former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, vice chair, Atlantic Council Center for Strategy and Security; former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, Atlantic Council fellow; Paul McCarthy, senior research fellow for European affairs at the Heritage Foundation Center for Freedom; and former U.S. Ambassador to Romania Adrian Zuckerman, chairman of the board of Alianta https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/central-europe-week-2026
10:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The Shattered Axis: Venezuela, Iran, and the Future of the China-Russia Alliance,” as part of “Central Europe Week 2026: Facing a New Strategic Reality,” with Kaush Arha, president of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Forum, James Carafano, Heritage Foundation fellow; and Ian Brzezinski, Atlantic Council senior fellow https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/central-europe-week-2026
1 p.m. — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion: “Military Law in Practice: Perspectives from Former General Counsels,” with Paul Ney, national security lawyer at the Executive Office of the President and former general counsel of the Defense Department; Robert Sander, founding partner, Sander Group, PLLC, former general counsel of the Navy Department, former acting general counsel of the Army; and Army Col. Toby Curto https://fedsoc.org/events/military-law-in-practice
1:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Bluff or Death? How to Assess Nuclear Threats,” with Jon Finer, senior fellow, Yale Law School Leadership Program; and George Perkovich, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/01/bluff-or-death
4 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University School of Foreign Service Security Studies Program book discussion: Bend But Do Not Break: Shaping the Future of the All-Volunteer Force, with editor Jaron Wharton; editor Katherine Kuzminski, professor at the Security Studies Program; Max Margulies, non-resident affiliate at Georgetown Center for Security Studies; and editor Jason Dempsey https://events.georgetown.edu/sfs/event/36506-bend-but-do-not-break
6: 30 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “The Future of Nuclear Proliferation,” with former Deputy NATO Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller, nonresident senior fellow, CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; Scott Sagan, co-director of Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation; Toby Dalton, co-director, CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; and Mariano-Florentino Cuellar, CEIP president https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/01/the-future-of-nuclear-proliferation
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 6
11 a.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “How Moscow Manufactured the Myth of Putin Inevitable Victory,” with Ruslan Stefanchuk, chairman, Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada; Julia Davis, founder, Russian Media Monitor; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies; and Casey Michel, director, Human Rights Foundation Combating Kleptocracy Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-moscow-manufactured-the-myth
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 10
10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Committee hearing: “Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security: ICE, CBP, and USCIS,” with testimony from Todd Lyons, senior official performing the duties of the director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement; Rodney Scott, commissioner, U.S. Customs and Border Protection; and Joseph Edlow, director, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services http://homeland.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 11
3 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Senior Enlisted Leaders on Servicemember and Family Quality of Life,” with testimony from Fleet Master Chief David Isom, senior enlisted adviser to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Weimer; Master Chief Petty Officer John Perryman; Sgt. Maj. of the Marine Corps Carlos Ruiz; Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force David Wolfe; and Chief Master Sgt. of the Space Force John Bentivegna http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 12
Brussels, Belgium — United Kingdom and Germany convene the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meet at NATO Headquarters, followed by a meeting of NATO defense ministers https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/events/media-advisories
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 13
Munich, Germany — The 62nd Munich Security Conference at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof and Rosewood Munich, with nearly 50 heads of state and government attending. The conference runs through Sunday, February 15 https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2026/
