END OF AN ERA: ‘IF IT EXPIRES, IT EXPIRES’: As of tomorrow, there will be no constraints on what the U.S. and Russia can do to build up and modernize their nuclear arsenals. The New START treaty, signed in 2010 by Barack Obama and Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev, restricted each side to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads on no more than 700 missiles and bombers. After a five-year extension was signed shortly after Joe Biden took office in 2021, it expires tomorrow, ending the last of the Cold War agreements aimed at limiting the spread of nuclear weapons.
While Russia has offered to abide by its provisions for another year, President Donald Trump seems happy to let it fade into history. “Well, there’s a lot of weapons it does not cover, and they’re all covered on our side, which is not a good thing,” Trump told the New York Times last month. “There are a lot of weaknesses to that agreement. When they negotiated that agreement, they didn’t do a very good job.”
“If it expires, it expires. We’ll do a better agreement,” Trump said.
He has indicated in the past that he believes any new agreement on nuclear weapons should be a three-way deal that would include China, which, according to the Pentagon, is undergoing a “massive nuclear expansion,” and is “on track to have over 1,000 warheads by 2030.”
The Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China, released two months ago, noted, “Beijing continues to demonstrate no appetite for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions.”
A NEW ARMS RACE? Arms Control advocates were quick to express fears that the lack of any treaty constraints after more than half a century could spark a new and dangerous arms race.
“We’re at the point now where the two sides could, with the expiration of this treaty, for the first time in about 35 years, increase the number of nuclear weapons that are deployed on each side,” Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, told the Associated Press. “And this would open up the possibility of an unconstrained, dangerous three-way arms race.”
It was a debate that played out at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday. “For the first time in 54 years, the United States and Russia will have no binding framework to regulate our respective nuclear forces,” said Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), ranking Democrat on the committee. “And I believe the opportunity still exists to pursue a successor agreement. The alternative, an unconstrained arms competition, would serve neither country’s interest.”
Committee Chairman Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) argued the treaty outlived its usefulness. “The New START Treaty was negotiated in the bygone era, 15 years ago. In 2010, the idea of abolishing nuclear weapons seemed an attainable goal to some,” he said. “That is, until Vladimir Putin decided that compliance with Russia’s obligations were no longer in his interest.”
“Now, as I say, 15 years after the treaty was signed, we face an assortment of threats far more complicated and dangerous than anyone foresaw in 2010,” Wicker said. “China is poised to become an even greater threat. Over the past several years, Xi Jinping has nearly quadrupled the size of his nuclear arsenal.”
A STRATCOM COMMANDER’S ADVICE: Among the witnesses at yesterday’s hearing was retired Adm. Charles Richard, former commander of nuclear forces, as head of the U.S. Strategic Command.
“I would not recommend a one-year extension to the New START treaty absent verification procedures being reinstated,” Richard testified. “At a minimum, I would include Russia, China, and the United States in any arms control agreement.”
“Absent that, simply extending the New START treaty for one year does not constrain Russia to the same way that it constrains us,” Richard continued. “It prevents us from answering the challenge that China has added to this, and it increases the uncertainty because it doesn’t have the verification mechanisms built in that were so successful in the past.”
A counterargument was offered by Rose Gottemoeller, the former undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, who led the New START delegation in 2024.
“My bottom line is that it does not serve U.S. national security interests to have to address the Chinese nuclear buildup while simultaneously facing a rapid Russian upload campaign,” Gottemoeller testified. “The Russians have the capacity and experience to succeed in such a campaign. It will be much better for us to keep them limited for at least another year while we continue to plan and prepare for the Chinese threat.”
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Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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NOTE TO READERS: Daily of Defense will not publish Monday, February 16 as we observe the Presidents Day federal holiday and recover from Sunday night’s Super Bowl festivities.
HAPPENING TODAY: UKRAINE PEACE TALKS RESUME: U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian negotiators are meeting for a second round of talks in Abu Dhabi, as Russia offers no concessions and continues to attack Ukraine with the goal of increasing the misery of the civilian population during a record cold spell. Attacks continued overnight with two people killed in Zaporizhzhia and civilian infrastructure targeted in the Black Sea port city of Odesa.
Despite the scant evidence of any meaningful pause in the level of attacks on Ukraine, President Trump insisted that Russian President Putin kept his word for the week of Jan. 25-31, laying off energy infrastructure, even though the Kremlin said the pause only applied to Kyiv, and was only an event for a day or two. “It was Sunday to Sunday, and it opened up. And he hit them hard last night,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “No, he kept his word on that.”
In its latest assessment, the Institute for the Study of War concludes the “pause” was simply a chance for Russia to gear up for a massive attack overnight Monday. “The Kremlin will likely attempt to portray its adherence to this short-term energy strikes moratorium as a significant concession to gain leverage in the upcoming peace talks, even though the Kremlin used these few days to stockpile missiles for a larger strike package,” the ISW said.
“The February 2 to 3 strike demonstrates that Russia never intended to use the energy strikes moratorium to de-escalate the war or seriously advance the US-initiated peace negotiations,” the ISW said, noting that “Ukraine’s largest energy company, DTEK, reported that the overnight Russian strike was the most devastating Russian strike thus far in 2026.”
PENTAGON FINALLY HAS A BUDGET: At a signing session at the White House yesterday afternoon, President Trump ended the brief partial government shutdown by affixing his signature to the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026,” which, among other things, finally gave the Pentagon its budget for the fiscal year 2026, which began last October. The Defense/War Department has been working under the restrictions of a continuing resolution for four months.
“Today, we have a budget of $1.5 trillion,” Trump announced during his remarks last month in Davos, Switzerland. “We’re bringing back battleships, battleships 100-times more powerful than the great battleships you saw in World War II, those great, big, gorgeous ships,” he said.
In reality, the Pentagon budget for this year, not counting military construction and funds for the Energy Department’s nuclear weapons responsibilities, totals $839 billion, a mere $8 billion more than last fiscal year, when Congress never managed to pass a budget for defense.
While Trump has floated a proposal for a $1.5 trillion spending level for next year, an idea endorsed by the respective chairmen of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, no formal request has been sent to Congress.
In days of old, February was budget month at the Pentagon, with all of the services presenting detailed budget plans in daylong briefings, with the formal package sent to Congress as a starting point for budget deliberations, the goal being to pass the appropriations by Sept. 30.
Nothing like that has happened this or last. And despite what the president said at Davos, the budget does not include money for a new class of battleships. In fact, it failed to address a $50 billion shortfall identified by the Pentagon last June.
HOUSE VOTES TO END PARTIAL SHUTDOWN BUT HOMELAND SECURITY NEGOTIATIONS ON THIN ICE
KELLY
A federal judge hearing the lawsuit that Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has filed against the Pentagon and Secretary Pete Hegseth seemed sympathetic to Kelly’s argument that efforts to demote him and dock his pension were an unconstitutional violation of his First Amendment rights as a retired Navy officer and elected official.
Federal Judge Richard Leon, who was nominated by President George W. Bush, expressed incredulity at the Pentagon’s arguments that Kelly should be subject to the same restrictions as active duty troops. “You’re asking me to do something the Supreme Court or the D.C. Circuit Court has never done,” Leon said. “That’s a bit of a stretch.”
Kelly’s attorney argued that the formal censure of Kelly and the attempt to punish him financially have a far-reaching chilling effect on veterans who wish to speak out on public matters.
“I think the law is on our side. The Constitution is on our side. I was in court today for my constitutional rights, but beyond that, for the rights of millions of retired service members and millions, hundreds of millions of more Americans, where this administration thinks it’s OK to violate people’s constitutional rights, freedom of speech,” Kelly said in an appearance on CNN last night.
“I’ve heard from retired servicemembers who already have changed what they say because of how Pete Hegseth has gone after me,” Kelly said. “So that’s why, and you’ve probably heard me say this before, this isn’t just about me. I’m just like the first one through the breach here that has to stick up for the rights of all of us.“
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Iranian drone flying ‘aggressively’ shot down by US F-35 in Arabian Sea
Washington Examiner: Trump touts meeting with Petro after past disagreements: ‘We got along very well’
Washington Examiner: House votes to end partial shutdown but Homeland Security negotiations on thin ice
Washington Examiner: EU plans to seek US partnership to reduce reliance on Chinese critical minerals
Washington Examiner: DOJ says White House ballroom completion critical for ‘national security’
Washington Examiner: DHS officials point fingers over delays in border wall construction
Washington Examiner: Pentagon threatens ‘extraordinary measures’ if Democrats pull funding from Virginia Military Institute
Washington Examiner: Complaint against Gabbard alleges DNI withheld classified info for ‘political purposes’
Washington Examiner: Mandelson resigns from House of Lords as Keir Starmer hopes to stop Epstein scandal from engulfing him
Washington Examiner: Norwegian royals implode with Epstein emails, son re-arrested ahead of his rape trial
Washington Examiner: Judge blocks Trump from revoking protected status for Haitians in controversial ruling
Washington Post: Homeland Security is targeting Americans with this secretive legal weapon
AP: Trump says if Noem wants to do the body ‘camera thing’ in Minnesota ‘that’s OK with me’
AP: Immigration agents draw guns and arrest activists following them in Minneapolis
New York Times: China’s Disappearing Generals
Wall Street Journal: Why India Will Struggle to Reduce Its Reliance on Russian Oil
Washington Post: Defense Dept. effort to punish Mark Kelly draws skepticism from judge
Washington Post: Pentagon warns Scouts to make ‘core value reforms’ or lose military support
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Grapples with Challenges to Aircraft Readiness: Parts and Maintainers
Aviation Week: Lockheed: F-35 Backlog Cleared, Targeting ‘Sweet Spot’ Delivery Pace
Aviation Week: Boeing Sees Opportunities For T-7, But US Air Force Is Top Focus
Defense News: Pentagon Taps 25 Firms for Small, Cheap Attack Drone Competition
Breaking Defense: Picogrid Wins $9M Air Force Contract for Counter-Drone Software Written by AI
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Next Up in Pentagon’s Push for Defense Industry Reforms: Space
Reuters: SpaceX Grounds Falcon 9 Flights After Second-Stage Issue
MeriTalk: Air Force Adopts GenAI.mil Platform
DefenseScoop: CDAO Invests in AI-Enabled Translation for Military-Wide Use
Defense One: New Pentagon Science-and-Innovation Board Arrives as Administration Cuts Research Funding
The War Zone: KC-46 Mishap Closes Key European Logistical Hub for US for Days
THE CALENDAR:
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 4
9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Security Beyond Defense: Central Europe Role in the Transatlantic Economy,” with Polish Undersecretary of State for Economic Development and Technology Michal Baranowski; former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Mark Brzezinski, president and CEO, Brzezinski Global Strategies; and Marta Pawlak, legal and public policy director at the American Chamber of Commerce in Poland https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/central-europe-week-2026-facing-a-new-strategic-reality
10 a.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies virtual discussion: “Reimagining Mediterranean Security with Greek Minister for National Defense Nikos Dendias,” with FDD Executive Director Jonathan Schanzer https://www.fdd.org/events/2026/02/03/reimagining-mediterranean-security
2 p.m. — Center for American Progress Zoom discussion: “A Plan to Rein in the Department of Homeland Security,” with Greta Bedekovics, CAP director of democracy; Debu Gandhi, CAP senior director, immigration policy: Dan Herman, CAP senior director, national security, accountability, and reform; and Allie Preston, CAP senior policy analyst, criminal justice reform https://rsvp2.americanprogress.org/reiningindhs/email1
2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Europe and Regional Security Cooperation Subcommittee hearing: “A Pathway to European Energy Security,” with testimony from Geoffrey Pyatt, senior managing director for energy and critical minerals, McLarty Associates and fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.; and Dan Byers, vice president of policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Energy Institute, Washington, D.C. http://foreign.senate.gov
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 5
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “A New Strategic Reality for the Transatlantic Relationship,” with former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, vice chair, Atlantic Council Center for Strategy and Security; former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, Atlantic Council fellow; Paul McCarthy, senior research fellow for European affairs at the Heritage Foundation Center for Freedom; and former U.S. Ambassador to Romania Adrian Zuckerman, chairman of the board of Alianta https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/central-europe-week-2026
10:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The Shattered Axis: Venezuela, Iran, and the Future of the China-Russia Alliance,” as part of “Central Europe Week 2026: Facing a New Strategic Reality,” with Kaush Arha, president of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Forum, James Carafano, Heritage Foundation fellow; and Ian Brzezinski, Atlantic Council senior fellow https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/central-europe-week-2026
1 p.m. — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion: “Military Law in Practice: Perspectives from Former General Counsels,” with Paul Ney, national security lawyer at the Executive Office of the President and former general counsel of the Defense Department; Robert Sander, founding partner, Sander Group, PLLC, former general counsel of the Navy Department, former acting general counsel of the Army; and Army Col. Toby Curto https://fedsoc.org/events/military-law-in-practice
1:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Bluff or Death? How to Assess Nuclear Threats,” with Jon Finer, senior fellow, Yale Law School Leadership Program; and George Perkovich, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/01/bluff-or-death
4 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University School of Foreign Service Security Studies Program book discussion: Bend But Do Not Break: Shaping the Future of the All-Volunteer Force, with editor Jaron Wharton; editor Katherine Kuzminski, professor at the Security Studies Program; Max Margulies, non-resident affiliate at Georgetown Center for Security Studies; and editor Jason Dempsey https://events.georgetown.edu/sfs/event/36506-bend-but-do-not-break
6: 30 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “The Future of Nuclear Proliferation,” with former Deputy NATO Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller, nonresident senior fellow, CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; Scott Sagan, co-director of Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation; Toby Dalton, co-director, CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; and Mariano-Florentino Cuellar, CEIP president https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/01/the-future-of-nuclear-proliferation
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 6
11 a.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “How Moscow Manufactured the Myth of Putin Inevitable Victory,” with Ruslan Stefanchuk, chairman, Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada; Julia Davis, founder, Russian Media Monitor; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies; and Casey Michel, director, Human Rights Foundation Combating Kleptocracy Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-moscow-manufactured-the-myth
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 10
10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Committee hearing: “Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security: ICE, CBP, and USCIS,” with testimony from Todd Lyons, senior official performing the duties of the director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement; Rodney Scott, commissioner, U.S. Customs and Border Protection; and Joseph Edlow, director, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services http://homeland.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 11
3 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Senior Enlisted Leaders on Servicemember and Family Quality of Life,” with testimony from Fleet Master Chief David Isom, senior enlisted adviser to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Weimer; Master Chief Petty Officer John Perryman; Sgt. Maj. of the Marine Corps Carlos Ruiz; Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force David Wolfe; and Chief Master Sgt. of the Space Force John Bentivegna http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 12
Brussels, Belgium — United Kingdom and Germany convene the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meet at NATO Headquarters, followed by a meeting of NATO defense ministers https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/events/media-advisories
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 13
Munich, Germany — The 62nd Munich Security Conference at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof and Rosewood Munich, with nearly 50 heads of state and government attending. The conference runs through Sunday, February 15 https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2026/
