FIGHTING WORDS: It was a “mic-drop” moment like no other. At the top of yesterday’s White House briefing, Press Secretary Sean Spicer ceded the podium to National Security Adviser Mike Flynn, who excoriated Iran for a long list of “malign actions” he accused the Obama administration of ignoring, including recent missile tests, weapons transfers, and support for terrorism, specifically the backing of Yemeni Houthi rebels who attacked a Saudi warship in the Red Sea Monday. “President Trump has severely criticized the various agreements reached between Iran and the Obama administration, as well as the United Nations, as being weak and ineffective,” said Flynn reading from a statement. “Instead of being thankful to the United States and the agreements, Iran is now feeling emboldened. As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice. Thank you.” BOOM. That was it. No questions.
Later in the briefing, Spicer added that the administration “wanted to make very clear that we felt that [Iran’s] actions are both provocative and in violation [of the nuclear deal] and make sure they knew that we’re not going to sit by and do nothing.”
After the briefing senior administration officials, speaking to reporters on background, did not provide much more clarity about what Flynn’s ominous warning meant. Sanctions? Military action? The officials said there was a “deliberative process” underway to determine the way forward and a “range of options” to respond, including possible financial and economic sanctions or support for opponents of Iran. Officials would not discuss the use of military force, but they did make clear that while Iran’s missile tests violate UN resolutions, they are a separate issue from the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. The confrontational approach is setting up one of Trump’s big foreign policy challenges. Iran insists the tests did not violate any resolutions.
On Fox yesterday, Rep. Ron Desantis had this take on Flynn’s veiled threat: “It says we’re going to stop the policy of letting Iran get away with more belligerent behavior after more belligerent behavior just so we can keep this Iran nuclear deal, this piece of paper intact. I think that they’re going to be tougher on Iran and I think our Gulf allies will be very happy to see that.” And this morning, Trump tweeted: “Iran has been formally PUT ON NOTICE for firing a ballistic missile. Should have been thankful for the terrible deal the U.S. made with them!”
He continued: “Iran was on its last legs and ready to collapse until the U.S. came along and gave it a life-line in the form of the Iran Deal: $150 billion.”
FIGHTING WORDS, PART TWO: There are a handful of countries in the world that the United States can count on as steadfast friends. Great Britain, Canada and Australia would all make the list. But the first phone call between Trump and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull by all accounts was less than cordial. The discussion turned contentious over the issue of a deal made by the previous administration to resettle hundreds of refugees who are in Australia in the U.S. Trump reportedly told Turnbull that of all the world leaders he had talked to on Saturday, “this was the worst call by far.” Last night, the president tweeted, “Do you believe it? The Obama Administration agreed to take thousands of illegal immigrants from Australia. Why? I will study this dumb deal!” Turnbull, for his part, declined to characterize the tenor of the exchange. “It’s better that these things, these conversations, are conducted candidly, frankly, privately,” Turnbull told reporters in Sydney.
MATTIS IN KOREA: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has arrived in South Korea after a more than 20 hour flight from Andrews that included two aerial refuelings of his modified 747. North Korea is at the top of the agenda, but with all the political turmoil in the South, it’s possible many of the official Mattis is meeting with won’t be around in a few months. South Korea continues to drag its feet on allowing the U.S. to move a Lockheed Martin Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile battery to the South, fearing economic backlash from China. “I will talk to them about THAAD, absolutely,” Mattis told reporters traveling with him en route. Seoul is 14 hours ahead of Washington, so we expect to hear from Mattis late tonight at a news conference Friday morning Korea time, around 8 p.m. Eastern.
Before departing on his first overseas trip, Mattis issued urgent guidance to the Pentagon to speed up a review of this year’s budget request, with the goal of greatly increasing funding for what he called “urgent warfighting readiness shortfalls.” “The ultimate objective is to build a larger, more capable, and more lethal joint force, driven by a new National Defense Strategy,” Mattis said. He has three goals — two immediate and one longer term — to improve warfighting readiness, address pressing shortfalls, and then eventually build a larger, more capable military, which he admits will cost more money. He said the “final budget will be a net increase over the fiscal 2017 topline requested by the Obama administration.”
I COME BEARING MISSILES: Just in time for Mattis’ South Korea visit, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced yesterday the approval of possible sale of two types of jet-launched missiles to Seoul made by Raytheon. The agency gave the OK for 66 AIM-9X-2 Sidewinder Missiles, costing $70 million, and 89 AGM-65G-2 Maverick missiles, also worth $70 million.
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A SEAL COMES HOME: Trump and his daughter Ivanka departed the White House yesterday afternoon for an unannounced trip Dover Air Force Base in Delaware to pay respects to a fallen hero Chief Petty Officer William “Ryan” Owens. The remains of the Navy SEAL were brought home in what the military calls a “dignified transfer ceremony” at the Air Force base, which was also attended by Sen. Chris Coons. Owens, a member of the Navy’s SEAL Team 6 and a father of three, was killed in a U.S. commando assault on an al Qaeda facility in Yemen that Trump had authorized last weekend. The operation left four additional U.S. service members wounded and marked the first military fatality under the new administration. The president was said to have had a “very somber and lengthy” conversation with Owens’ family Tuesday.
THE RAID POST MORTEM: We are learning more details about the audacious mission by SEAL Team 6 to capture vital intelligence about the group al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula, a terrorist organization linked to attacks in the West, including the Charlie Hebdo office massacre in Paris. Pentagon officials concede lots of things went wrong on the nighttime raid in a remote part of Yemen, including meeting much heavier resistance than expected. That forced the SEALs to call in air cover from Marine Cobra attack helicopters, and probably increased the number of civilian casualties. Later a $70 million V-22 Osprey had to be destroyed after it crash-landed.
Spicer, who Monday referred to the operation as a “a very successful raid,” was more measured yesterday. “You never want to call something a success 100 percent when someone’s hurt or killed,” said Spicer, but he said Owens’ sacrifice was not in vain. “What he did for this nation and what he got out of that mission, I think, I truly believe and I know the president believes is going to save American lives.”
Late yesterday, U.S. Central Command said while an investigation is still underway, it now appears that civilians were accidentally killed in the raid. “A team designated by the operational task force commander has concluded regrettably that civilian non-combatants were likely killed in the midst of a firefight during a raid in Yemen Jan. 29. Casualties may include children,” CENTCOM said in a statement. Reports from Yemen claim as 30 civilians were killed.
OBAMA DIDN’T DELAY THE TIMING: President Obama was briefed on the Yemen plan before he left office, but did not approve it. The reason, three Pentagon officials tell us, was not because of the risk of putting boots on the ground, but rather because of the timing. The optimum window to conduct the attack was Jan- 28-29, eight days after Obama would be out of office. The president’s thinking, according to official, was that if the mission was to be conducted under Trump’s tenure, he should make the call. Obama was told there be plenty of time to brief the new president, and waiting would not affect the timing of the mission. Why the 28th? As one official told us, “Check the lunar cycles on the calendar. You’ll see that was the darkest day of the year.”
THEN THERE WERE THREE: The Northrop Grumman-BAE Systems team dropped out of the T-X competition to build the Air Force’s next fleet of trainer aircraft on yesterday, marking the second team to withdraw from the contract bidding process in less than a week (the Raytheon-Leonardo team was the first). The teams remaining that are competing for the $16.3 billion contract are Boeing and Saab, Lockheed Martin and Korea Aerospace Industries and Sierra Nevada Corp. and Turkish Aerospace Industries. Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners said the Boeing-Saab team is favored to get the contract, but said it’ll be a tough competition.
AFGHANISTAN HEADING SOUTH: The Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction is out with its quarterly report, and all the trends are heading in the wrong direction. The report notes the numbers of the Afghan security forces are decreasing, while both casualties and the number of districts under insurgent control or influence are increasing. “U.S. Forces Afghanistan reported that approximately 57.2% of the country’s 407 districts are under Afghan government control or influence as of November 15, 2016, a 6.2% decrease from the 63.4% reported last quarter in late August, and a nearly 15% decrease since November 2015.”
At a congressional hearing yesterday, retired Gen. David Petraeus said only “a sustained commitment” can prevent Afghanistan from once again becoming a sanctuary for transnational extremists. “The only way that you can accomplish that mission, without us doing it ourselves, is obviously to enable the Afghans to, over time, secure themselves and to govern themselves to a good enough fashion. We’re not trying to turn Afghanistan into Switzerland in 10 years or less.”
Petraeus also told House lawmakers yesterday that America is getting “somewhat ambivalent” about its security at the same time that the world order it helped to create — and dominate — is facing more threats than ever before. “Americans should not take the current international order for granted. It did not will itself into existence. We created it. Likewise, it is not naturally self-sustaining. We have sustained it. If we stop doing so, it will fray and, eventually, collapse,” the former CIA chief told the House Armed Services Committee.
Petraeus also said he was “pleased” that Trump has agreed to defer to Mattis on the use of torture, which the secretary does not support. “First of all, it’s wrong and if you don’t buy that, it’s also generally not the best way to go about getting information from a detainee,” he said.
WE HAVE A SEC OF STATE: Former Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson was confirmed by the Senate to lead the State Department on Wednesday, giving Trump a key adviser on foreign policy and national security, Joel Gehrke writes. He was confirmed in a 56-43 vote. Four senators who usually vote with Democrats voted for Tillerson: Sens. Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Manchin, Mark Warner and Angus King.
Tillerson is the fourth Cabinet pick to receive Senate confirmation, and he was approved despite early signs that some Republicans might join Democrats in trying to sink his nomination. Instead, he took office with bipartisan support, though still less than customary for a secretary of state.
Later during Tillerson’s swearing in, Trump said Tillerson will follow three “ancient truths” on foreign policy. “It’s time to bring a clear-eyed focus to foreign affairs, to take a fresh look at the world around us, and to seek new solutions grounded in very ancient truths,” Trump said before Vice President Mike Pence swore Tillerson into office.
Those three truths are that “[1] Nations have a right to protect their interests; [2] that all people have a right to freely pursue their own destiny and [3] that all of us are better off when we act in concert, and not in conflict. And there’s rarely been conflict like we have in the world today — very sad.”
DOGFIGHTING: Lt. Gen. Jon Davis, the head of Marine Corps aviation, said he expects a review ordered by Mattis to compare Lockheed Martin’s F-35 to Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet to show the critical need filled by the F-35. “It’s probably going to end up validating the need for a fifth generation fighter in the fleet,” Davis said at a Defense Writers Group breakfast Wednesday. The Super Hornet is a fourth generation aircraft, meaning it doesn’t have the stealthy features and advanced sensors of the F-35. But Trump has asked Boeing to price a tricked-out Super Hornet that could be considered “comparable” to the much newer (and far more expensive) F-35.
DEMS WANT PROBE ON FLYNN’S RUSSIA CONNECTION: Top Democrats from a range of congressional committees sent a letter to the Pentagon on Wednesday requesting an investigation into Flynn, Todd Shepherd writes. The letter alleges Flynn violated the Constitution’s “emoluments” clause by dining with Russian President Vladimir Putin and accepting a speaking fee for appearing at a gala hosted by Russia Today, a television channel of Russia’s state-run media.
Reps. Elijah Cummings, Adam Smith, John Conyers, Bennie Thompson, Adam Schiff and Eliot Engel, the ranking members of the Committees on Oversight and Government Reform, Armed Services, Judiciary, Homeland Security, Intelligence, and Foreign Affairs all signed the letter.
MORE THREATS: Iranian leaders are working to give a terrorist proxy the ability to launch guided missiles at Israel’s most important secular and religious sites, according to a top Republican, Joel Gehrke writes. “What they intend to do is transfer a GPS capability to what right now are dumb rockets and dumb missiles,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce said Wednesday during an event with the Israel Project. “If they succeed in this, they can pick the tallest buildings in Tel Aviv, the main landmarks in Jerusalem, the airport, the ships in the harbor.”
That warning punctuated Royce’s call for Trump to prepare to reverse some of the economic concessions that the Obama administration made while negotiating the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. And the crackdown has bipartisan support, as Royce’s Democratic counterpart on the committee emphasized throughout the panel.
CLOSING THE BOOK ON COOKED INTEL: After an exhaustive investigation that involved a review of 17 million documents, 15.35 terabytes of unclassified, secret, and top secret data, and interviews with 120 people, the Pentagon’s inspector general found no evidence that intelligence produced by U.S. Central Command was “falsified, distorted, delayed, or suppressed,” to present a rosier picture of the war against the Islamic State. Nor did it find any evidence of wrongdoing by anyone. What it did find was a widespread perception that intelligence was being manipulated and distorted by higher-ups, despite the facts showing the belief was unfounded. The report concluded, “That widespread perception alone indicated a significant problem.”
POLAR AMBITIONS: Defense Department officials on Wednesday released an updated military strategy for the Arctic that previews an expansion of the U.S. Navy to deter Russian aggression in the region, Joel Gehrke writes. “It is DoD’s intent to anticipate the need to respond to emerging challenges in the Arctic and to position itself to take advantage of opportunities to advance U.S. national security objectives,” the unclassified report said.
The planners foresee that melting sea ice “will eventually open a northern maritime avenue of approach to North America” and potentially damage the tools currently being used to detect incoming ships.
HELLO, IT’S ME: That’s all reporters heard when calling in for the White House’s short-notice background briefing on how U.S. policy would change toward Iran. Due to technical difficulties, the press corps couldn’t hear the briefer, but could hear each other, prompting many “Hello? Hello?”s as people wondered what was going on. The reporters made the best of it, though, with one doing her best rendition of “Total Eclipse of the Heart.” Next time, we’re making it a sing-a-long.
THE RUNDOWN
New York Times: Chain Of Miscues In Yemen Attack On Qaeda Branch
Politico: U.S. diplomats warning GE’s major deals in Iraq at risk over travel ban
UPI: Canada negotiating F/A-18 Super Hornet buy
New York Times: The Phrase Putin Never Uses About Terrorism (and Trump Does)
USNI News: Panel: U.S. Needs to Enter Talks with Turkey and Russia over Syrian Civil War
Army Times: Congressman asks Trump to pardon imprisoned Army officer
Air Force Times: Air Force wants to grow from 55 to 60 fighter squadrons
Military.com: Air Force: 1 Killed, 1 Injured in New Mexico Training
CNN: Inside the Yemen raid: Women al Qaeda fighters surprised US forces
Calendar
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 2
7 a.m. 1401 Lee Highway Lt. Gen. John Cooper, Air Force deputy chief of staff for logistics, engineering and force protection, speaks at an Air Force Association Breakfast Series at Key Bridge Marriott, Arlington, Virginia.
9 a.m. 2154 Rayburn. DoD Chief Information Officer Terry Halvorsen appears at a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform hearing on “Improving Security and Efficiency at OPM and the National Background Investigations Bureau.
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. A panel of think tank experts testifies on challenges for the new administration with regard to Israel and Palestine. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence receives a closed intelligence briefing. intelligence.senate.gov
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3
2:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Retired Gen. David Petraeus talks about the unsung heroes of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. aei.org
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 6
1:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Sen. Tom Cotton speaks about renewing American strength abroad. aei.org
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 7
9 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway, Arlington, Va. Lt. Gen. Scott Rice, the director of the Air National Guard, speaks at an event for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. mitchellaerospacepower.org
9:30 a.m. Senate Visitor’s Center 217. The Senate Armed Services Committee receives a closed briefing on cyber threats from Adm. Mike Rogers, the head of U.S. Cyber Command. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Think tank experts testify about what steps the U.S. should take to counter the threat from North Korea. foreignaffairs.house.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Each of the service’s vice chiefs testifies on the state of the military at the House Armed Services Committee. armedservices.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Analysts from think tanks discuss what the priorities should be for the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities in the 115th Congress. armedservices.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 8
2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The Stimson Center hosts an event examining the risks and rewards of President Trump’s new strategy toward Asia. stimson.org
2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. The service’s vice chiefs testify at the Senate Armed Services Committee about military’s readiness. armed-services.senate.gov
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 9
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Experts from the Atlantic Council and the Center for New American Strategy testify on the challenges ahead in the relationship between Russia and the U.S. foreign.senate.gov
