CARTER’S LAST APPEAL: Defense Secretary Ash Carter is in London this morning for what will be his last gathering of the core members of the counter-Islamic State coalition. The nations contributing will be asked again to step up the effort, as ISIS appears to be on the ropes, in both Iraq and Syria. U.S. Central Commander Gen. Joseph Votel is briefing the ministerial on the progress in liberating the last major ISIS strongholds, its putative capitals in Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria. The meeting comes as President-elect Trump is talking about ramping up the war against the Islamic State, without providing any details of how the strategy might change in his administration.
As we noted yesterday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, who has been overseeing a months-long review of national military strategy, has no current plan to meet with Trump to offer new options, but Dunford’ spokesman made clear yesterday the top U.S military adviser is ready to brief the president-elect at the appropriate time. “The chairman is ready to brief the president-elect when and if desired, which his predecessors have done with previous presidents-elect,” said Navy Capt. Greg Hicks, but he expected discussions of any strategy adjustment to come after Trump takes office. “In any transition we brief the new administration on key areas in which there will be decisions to be made early in their tenure and in doing so, lay out the current approach and underlying assumptions of that approach,” Hicks said. “Once the new administration is in place, we will offer recommendations going forward should the new administration wish to amend those assumptions or the current approach.”
Meanwhile on the battlefield, Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend gave a year-end update to Pentagon reporters that made no prediction on how soon Mosul will be liberated. “It’s progressing. It’s probably not progressing as fast as I, as a U.S. Army officer, would like, but it is progressing, and the Iraqis are advancing every day.” Townsend said the Iraqis are engaged in discussions “about how to inject new energy” into their assault. “We’re just going to let it go at the pace, it’s on the Iraqis’ pace. They’re the ones doing the fighting and the dying. And so I think that’s appropriate.” Townsend said his priority at the moment is moving as quickly as possible to isolate Raqqa, the base from which the Islamic State is still planning attacks against the West. And to do that, Townsend has had to stiff-arm Turkey, which insists it must be included in the Raqqa offensive. “We told them a couple months ago that we need to go to Raqqa now and they indicated they were not prepared to go right now because of all the other activities that they’re doing,” Townsend said. “So we told them that we’re gonna march down and isolate Raqqa, and after we isolate Raqqa, we’ll check back in with them and see if there’s a way they can be incorporated into the operation before we proceed.”
CHINA’S MILITARY BUILD-UP: A new assessment from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies says China appears to have significantly bolstered its defense capabilities at each of its outposts in the Spratly Islands, adding large anti-aircraft guns and probable “close-in weapons” designed to defend against cruise missiles. You can see the latest overhead imagery here, which shows China has also built nearly identical headquarters buildings at each of its four smaller artificial islands. China insists its construction on islands and reefs in the South China Sea is mainly for civilian use, and that it’s “legitimate and normal” for it to take steps to defend its territory, according to Reuters, which also reports separately China’s plan to punish a U.S. automaker accused of price-fixing is a sign of how Beijing could retaliate if Trump continues his confrontational approach to Beijing.
Meanwhile, a new report from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments argues in the wake of President Obama’s failure to strongly challenge China’s “adventurism” in the South China Sea, it’s now up to Trump to get tough with Beijing to reverse the country’s “effective control over one of the world’s most important strategic waterways.” The report’s author urges the Trump administration to adopt a more robust strategy, “that would require more than the repetitive statement of tactical interests and the periodic token passage of military ships and aircraft through the region.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.
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PUTIN IN JAPAN: Russian President Vladimir Putin is in Japan for a two-day summit that, the AP notes, marks his first official visit to a G7 country since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe invited Putin despite the fact Japan and other G7 nations still have sanctions in place against Moscow, in the hope of making progress on a long-running territorial dispute over what Japan calls “the Northern Territories,” four southern Kuril islands. The dispute dates back to World War II, and has kept the countries from signing a peace treaty formally ending that war.
In Washington, the incoming Trump administration and the Senate appear headed for a collision early next year over new and existing sanctions on Russia and Sen. Lindsey Graham said yesterday that his campaign’s email server was hacked by Russia, along with others.
SEEKING ANSWERS ON HACKS: House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes asked the nation’s intelligence community leaders to brief the panel Thursday about Russia’s hacking of Democratic Party officials and alleged interference in last month’s elections, Nicole Duran writes. Nunes is seeking information from the heads of the CIA, FBI, NSA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. So far they haven’t replied, according to Nunes’ office. The request comes as Democrats, and some Republicans, are calling for probes into the matter. The intelligence community determined in October that Russia was behind the hacks of email accounts belonging to Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton campaign officials. However, since then, the CIA concluded that Russia did so to help Trump win the White House — an assessment ODNI is not willing to sign off on yet. Nunes wants the discrepancies resolved.
DID PUTIN DO IT? NBC reported last night that U.S. intelligence officials now believe with “a high level of confidence” that Putin was personally involved in a covert Russian campaign to interfere in the U.S. presidential election. The network cited “two senior officials with direct access to the information,” as saying new intelligence shows that Putin personally directed how hacked material from Democrats was leaked and otherwise used.
FLYNN’S IN MORE TROUBLE: Two Democratic senators are asking the directors of National Intelligence, FBI and Office of Personnel Management to investigate Trump’s national security adviser, retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, out of concerns he mishandled classified information and other allegations, Anna Giaritelli writes. Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire sent a letter Wednesday evening to the national security officials calling for a probe into the retired lieutenant general’s conduct following his military service. “We write to request that you review the security clearance given to retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn,” the senators wrote. “Based on public reports, his conduct in positions that require access to national defense information, and his subsequent private practice, appears inconsistent with the professionalism such access requires.”
The letter referred to a New Yorker story printed shortly after Trump picked Flynn that said the general “had technicians secretly install an Internet connection in his Pentagon office, even though it was forbidden.” It also came the same day the Washington Post published documents showing Flynn had been investigated for improperly sharing classified documents with allies in 2010. That investigation, by the way, was launched by the head of U.S. Central Command at the time, Gen. James Mattis.
RUBIO’S NEW ROLE: Sen. Marco Rubio is emerging as one of Trump’s toughest early foreign policy critics in the Senate, Susan Crabtree writes. Rubio teamed up with Sen. Edward Markey, a fellow member of the Foreign Relations Committee, on Wednesday to urge Trump to strengthen the U.S. system of longstanding alliances, including NATO and the U.S.-Japan Mutual Security Treaty. “For more than 70 years, the United States has helped to construct and maintain the institutions of global peace,” the senators wrote to Trump in a letter. “Among the most important of these institutions are defensive alliances such as NATO, as well as multilateral treaties comprising the nonproliferation regime. We urge you to affirm that the United States will continue to support these institutions,” Rubio and Markey wrote.
V-22 FLIGHTS SUSPENDED: The Marine Corps has temporarily halted all Osprey flights in Japan after an MV-22 crash-landed in shallow water off the coast of Okinawa this week. Lt. Gen. Lawrence Nicholson, the commanding general of III Marine Expeditionary Force, said flights will be grounded until he is “satisfied that we have reviewed our checklists and safety of flight procedures.” We learned yesterday the mishap occurred during an aerial refueling, when one of the rotor blades of the Osprey struck the refueling line and damaged the aircraft. One look at the photo of the wreckage, which you can see here, shows this bird will never fly again.
CEASE-FIRE BROKEN: Violence returned to Aleppo this week despite a cease-fire and new efforts by Russia and Turkey to ensure the remaining rebel fighters can leave the city in the hands of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, Joel Gehrke writes. “So far nobody has been evacuated,” New York Times reporter Anne Barnard told NPR. “The first convoy that attempted to leave was stopped by the Iranian-backed Shiite militias that have been helping the Syrian government on the ground. It seems that Iran and the Syrian government were not pleased that Turkey and Russia struck a deal without them.” This morning there are more reports that fighters loyal to the Syrian government fired on another evacuation convoy, wounding three people.
CROSSED LINES: Assad has crossed the line into depravity with his brutal campaign to maintain power, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Wednesday, Sarah Westwood writes. “They’ve crossed all the lines in pursuit of their goals,” Earnest said of the Assad regime, which has allowed the violence in Aleppo to escalate this week with its push to retake the city. Assad’s strategy has included “bombing hospitals and playgrounds” and starving his citizens, Earnest said. “These tactics are depraved. They do cross just about every line that I can think of.”
NOT A FAILURE, JUST NOT A SUCCESS: The State Department on Wednesday refused to say that U.S. policy and strategy has failed to bring peace to Syria, and instead argued that the failure is a result of policies pursued by Syria, Russia and Iran, Joel Gehrke writes. State Department spokesman John Kirby was pushed hard at Wednesday’s briefing about the years the U.S. spent pursuing a political resolution of the bloody civil war, only to see those efforts fail over and over again. Secretary of State John Kerry has been working for months to negotiate a cease-fire in Syria that would allow humanitarian aid to reach the rebels, but Russia and Assad have declined to comply with those deals even when struck and persisted in bombarding the rebel-held neighborhoods of Aleppo.
“The failure is in the belief that this war can be solved militarily, and the failure is on Russia for not putting the proper pressure on the Assad regime to stop the brutality, the gassing, the surrender, the starvation of their own people,” Kirby said. “That’s the real failure.”
PANETTA WARNS TRUMP: Trump will risk being blamed for a potential terrorist attack against the United States if he refuses to receive daily security briefings, according to former CIA Director Leon Panetta, Meghana Kurup writes. “If we endure another attack and the intelligence officials had indications or information regarding that attack and the president did not want to listen to that, for whatever reason, the responsibility for that attack would fall on the president,” Panetta said.
The former defense secretary during Obama’s first term said he has never seen any president who does not want to get the intelligence briefings. “I’ve seen presidents who have asked questions about whether that intelligence is verifiable, what are the sources for that intelligence, but I have never seen a president who said, ‘I don’t want that stuff,’ ” Panetta said during the Arab Strategy Forum in Dubai, according to Reuters.
VETS FOR BOB: Twenty veterans groups sent a letter to the Trump transition team on Wednesday urging the next president to keep VA Secretary Bob McDonald at his post, arguing that he has made measurable improvements at the VA since taking over in the midst of the 2014 wait-time scandal. “As you make your selection for VA secretary, then, we advocate for an approach that recognizes and builds upon current progress,” the letter says. “Given the challenges we face, we cannot afford to start over.”
CONDITIONS-BASED STRATEGY: The Afghan ambassador to the U.S., Hamdullah Mohib, said Wednesday that he’d like to see Trump’s administration devise a strategy for Afghanistan based on goals and conditions in his country, not the number of boots on the ground. “I think we would like to move from numerical to condition-based,” he told the Daily Signal in a Facebook Live interview following his keynote remarks at the Heritage Foundation. “We want a discussion around … what kind of progress we want Afghanistan to have and what would be necessary to make this happen.”
MABUS’ LATEST SHIP NAMES: When I ran into Navy Secretary Ray Mabus the other day at the Pentagon, I jokingly asked him to name a ship after me, and he joked back it might be less controversial than some of the other names he has picked over his long tenure. Mabus has formally announced the first ship of the new Ohio-class replacement submarines will be named USS Columbia in honor of the District of Columbia. Mabus also announced that the next ship in the John Lewis-class of fleet replenishment oilers, which are named in honor of U.S. civil rights heroes, will be named USNS Earl Warren, for the chief justice who led the Supreme Court during several landmark cases, including Brown v. Board of Education in 1954. And the future expeditionary fast transport ship, a shallow draft, all aluminum, commercial-based catamaran, will be the USNS Puerto Rico. Mabus, by the way, says when he leaves office he’ll be doing some work for Google Ventures, and some teaching.
WREATHS GOAL REACHED: Wreaths Across America reached its goal to receive donations for 245,000 wreaths, enabling the group to honor all 245,000 graves at Arlington National Cemetery. Volunteers will be laying out those wreaths in Arlington on Saturday.
THE RUNDOWN
The Diplomat: U.S. Pacific Commander: China Can’t Shut Off South China Sea
New York Times: For China’s State Media, Trump Victory Can’t Cure ‘American Disease’
Reuters: South Korea presidential hopeful: U.S. missile defense should wait
Washington Post: ISIS is making its own ammunition almost as fast as it can fire it, report finds
Defense News: Morale Improving, But Sustainment Problems Still Dog Air Force’s Nuclear Enterprise
Defense News: What Should Mattis Look for in a Deputy?
USNI News: Opinion: Want a better Navy? Try Fixing the Little Things
Military Times: Military planners prepping for uncertainty of a Trump inauguration ceremony
Defense News: After Trump Tweet: Lockheed Share Price Recovers, Fear Factor Lingers
Breaking Defense: Swarm 2: The Navy’s Robotic Hive Mind
UPI: BAE rolls out first Amphibious Combat Vehicle 1.1 prototype
Defense One: The Invisible Costs of Cyber Weapons
Air Force Times: Report: Malfunction caused Thunderbird crash after academy flyover
Reuters: Rebel officials say Aleppo evacuation plan back on track
AP: Sikorsky Reaches Settlement Over Fatal ’14 Navy Copter Crash
Calendar
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 15
10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Wilson Center hosts an event looking at what 2016 meant for relations between U.S. and China. wilsoncenter.org
4 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Experts discuss what opportunities the next administration has in nuclear security. stimson.org
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 16
9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Brookings Institution holds a panel discussion looking at U.S. and Japanese perspectives toward North Korea and its goals. brookings.edu
1 p.m. Livestream. The Council on Foreign Relations hosts United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. cfr.org
MONDAY | DECEMBER 19
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of think tank analysts talks about what Palestinians and Israelis expect from Trump’s administration. wilsoncenter.org
10:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James delivers remarks at an Atlantic Council event titled “Capabilities, Reassurance & Presence: The US Air Force in Transatlantic Security.” atlanticcouncil.org
