CALIPHATE CRUMBLING? As we noted earlier this week, the deployment of more U.S. troops to Iraq comes at what some Pentagon officials believe could be a possible “tipping point” in the war against the Islamic State. This morning there are indications that the radical Islamist group may share the same assessment. “The Islamic State is quietly preparing its followers for the eventual collapse of the caliphate it proclaimed with great fanfare two years ago,” says this morning’s Washington Post, which cites public messages in which Islamic State leaders are “acknowledging the terrorist organization’s declining fortunes on the battlefield while bracing for the possibility its remaining strongholds could fall.” Just to be clear: No one at the Pentagon is saying ISIS is on the ropes. Not yet.
KERRY TO MOSCOW: Secretary of State John Kerry is off on another mission to Moscow this week to discuss ways to increase military cooperation with Russia in Syria, and in particular enlisting Moscow’s help in pressuring Syrian President Bashar Assad to accept a transition government.
CARTER BACK HOME: Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s plane touches down at Joint Base Andrews today, wrapping up his week-long travel, which began in Poland, moved to Iraq, and ended in Afghanistan. Carter announced in Iraq that he’s summoned defense ministers from nations participating in the campaign against the Islamic State to meet at the base outside Washington next week. Carter said the agenda for the July 20 meeting is straightforward, “What more can we do? And what more can they do?” he told reporters while in Iraq.
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SHIELDS UP IN KOREA: South Korea announced today that the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system is now up and running and in a position to be able to protect up to two-thirds of the country from a North Korean attack.
MILITARY VEEP VETTING: A retired four-star is being vetted for possible presidential running mate, this time for Democrat Hillary Clinton. Ariel Cohen reports former Supreme NATO commander Adm. James Stavridis is on Clinton’s short list. Stavridis is the dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University in Boston. The Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard points out that Stavridis has been advocating for Washington to let in more Syrian refugees and has dismissed concerns raised by the FBI that the vetting of the mostly Muslim population is inadequate.
YOU’RE HIRED! “It’s a little bit like ‘The Apprentice,’ ” is how former House Speaker Newt Gingrich described the waiting game as Donald Trump mulls over the list of finalists to be his Veep. Besides Gingrich, who has parted ways with Fox in anticipation of possibly being selected, the others still on the list are believed to include Indiana Gov. Mike Pence and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Trump may make his pick as soon as this week.
Another name mentioned for the Trump ticket is retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who in an exclusive interview with Gabby Morrongiello said the decision to maintain Clinton’s security clearance is a “slap in the face to every person who’s held a security clearance properly and done all the hard work to maintain that security clearance that is required.” He also told her that in his experience as head of the Defense Intelligence Agency — from which he was fired in 2014 — President Obama is “very, very uncomfortable with his military. He’s very uncomfortable in the role of commander in chief.”
BUSY DAY AHEAD: Wednesday is a busy day both on and off Capitol Hill, as lawmakers prepare to leave town at the end of the week for a seven-week stint in their home states.
— Flynn will be at the Heritage Foundation at noon talking about his new book on the war against radical Islam.
— Gen. Herbert Carlisle, commander of Air Combat Command, is at the House Armed Services AirLand subcommittee at 2 p.m. talking about the need for the F-35. The joint strike fighter has been making news across the pond at the Farnborough International Airshow, so be on the lookout for those conversations making their way back to Washington.
— Later this afternoon at the HASC subcommittee on oversights and investigations, a panel of military officials, including Maj. Gen. David Allvin, the director of strategy and policy at U.S. European Command, will testify on oversight of the European Reassurance Initiative, which quadrupled in size in the president’s fiscal 2017 budget request.
— CIA Director John Brennan talks strategy at Brookings and two congressional committees take a look at nuclear modernization, with former SecDef William Perry testifying on a panel in the morning at the Senate Appropriations Committee and Adm. Cecil Haney, the commander of U.S. Strategic Command, speaking at a House Armed Services Committee hearing in the afternoon. Perry opposes the upgrade of nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, which he has described as “a uniquely destabilizing weapon” because a potential adversary has no way to know if an incoming missile signals is a conventional or nuclear attack.
— Leaders on Capitol Hill will leave campus on Wednesday afternoon to speak at a symposium on transgender troops serving in the military hosted by the Palm Center. Top Democrats in Congress, such as Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Minority Whip Steny Hoyer and the top Dem on the House Arms Services Committee Rep. Adam Smith are all expected to speak at the event, which begins at 2.
NO ILLEGAL TROOPS: House lawmakers yesterday unveiled a bill to ban illegal immigrants from serving in the armed forces, Pete Kasperowicz reports. “The sponsor of the bill, Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., said it’s critical for Congress to only reserve military service for Americans at a time when the size of the armed forces is dropping each year.”
“At a time when we are in the midst of eliminating 160,000 uniformed personnel positions over a nine-year stretch, we cannot afford to let the Pentagon reduce more opportunities for American soldiers through an unconstitutional executive memorandum,” Gosar said. “The president and his open border allies may hate the fact that the Constitution gets in the way of their political agenda, but it’s up to Congress to take bold action and stop this lawlessness.”
THIS IS WHY WE CAN’T HAVE NICE THINGS: Sen. John McCain slammed the Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier program for its skyrocketing cost, an additional two-month delay in delivery and critical technology, like the arresting gear, that still can’t be tested on ship. He also said the problems make the case for why Congress should adopt the reforms he championed in the Senate’s version of the NDAA. “The Ford-class program is a case study in why our acquisition system must be reformed – unrealistic business cases, poor cost estimates, new systems rushed to production, concurrent design and construction, and problems testing systems to demonstrate promised capability,” McCain said in a statement.
WAR ZONE ON THE HOMEFRONT: Retired Lt. Col. Scott Mann, a former Green Beret, said Tuesday that high racial tension in America is turning it into some of the war zones he saw during his 23-year career in the Army. “America is becoming Afghanistan,” he said
NOT TAKING IT WELL: China is threatening to declare air defense identification zone over much of the South China Sea, in reaction to yesterday’s adverse ruling over its territorial claims by an international tribunal at The Hague. The move would escalate tension, but China’s vice foreign minister also made noises about cooperation with the Philippines, who won the legal argument, according to the AP.
The 500-page ruling is very complex, but State Department officials broke down four key elements. 1) The invalidation of China’s nine-dash line claim. 2) The determination that the features in the Spratly Islands and the Scarborough Reef are entitled to no more than 12 nautical miles by way of maritime space. 3) The construction of artificial islands by China and the conduct of Chinese fishing fleets violated the rights of the Philippines. 4) The large-scale reclamation and construction of the military outposts in the Spratlys damage the environment. Said a State Department official on background, “We believe strongly that once the dust settles and the rhetoric subsides, this decision opens the door to some very practical and potentially productive discussions.”
F-35 SHINES AT FARNBOROUGH: The star of the Farnborough International Airshow was the F-35B’s impressive hover capability. Social media has been flooded with videos of the always impressive feat. As John Tirpak of Air Force Magazine noted in his post “You’ve seen Harriers do this, but they always had to land immediately because the hovering pirouette used all their fuel. The F-35 flew back to another base. Oh, and it’s stealthy and can fly supersonic, too. Quite a machine.”
THE RUNDOWN
Breaking Defense: F-35B Hovers, Finally, At Farnborough; Lots More Planes!
Defense News: US Lawmakers Urge Action on Jet Sales to Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain
Breaking Defense: Raytheon Unveils Its Next Gen Air Force Trainer
UPI: Raytheon’s JSOW-1 ready for U.S. Navy
USNI News: Navy 30-Year Ship Plan Outlines SSBN Incremental Funding, Pushes Cruiser Phased Modernization
Defense News: Lockheed Lands First Customer for Armed Black Hawk
Defense One: Slumping US Helicopter Market Forces Sikorsky to Look Overseas
National Interest: Air Force Fixes Faltering Control System For Leap-Ahead GPS III
UPI: BAE develops laser airspeed sensor
Washington Post: Pentagon will provide new assistance to Iraq after Baghdad bombings
Defense News: Cybersecurity Found Lacking in US Air Force’s Troubled OCX Program
Marine Corps Times: Marines carrying ceremonial rifles delayed from entering U.S. Capitol
Task and Purpose: Service Members May Soon Be Allowed To Carry Weapons On Installations
Marine Corps Times: U.S. troops sent to protect American embassy in South Sudan
Daily Beast: Assad Cuts the Last Road to Aleppo and Moves in for the Kill
Wall Street Journal: Navy Images Show Iranian Boats in Incident Involving Top U.S. General
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JULY 13
7:15 a.m. The Ritz-Carlton, Pentagon City. Vice Adm. Thomas Moore, commander of Naval Sea Systems Command, speaks at a Navy League breakfast. navyleague.org
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing to discuss the State Department’s performance on countering the virtual caliphate. foreignaffairs.house.gov
10 a.m. Cannon 311. House Homeland Security Committee will discuss insider threats and counterintelligence. homeland.house.gov
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS hosts a panel discussion on how the South China Sea disputes fit into a larger regional context. csis.org
10:30 a.m. Dirksen 419. Senate Foreign Relations committee discuss U.S. policy options in the South China Sea. foreign.senate.gov
10:30 a.m. Senate Appropriations Committee reviews budget requirements and justifications for the nuclear cruise missile. appropriations.senate.gov
11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS hosts a discussion on harnessing new technological innovations for strategic effect in the 21st Century. csis.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn to discuss his new book on winning the war against radical Islam. heritage.org
1:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. CIA Director John Brennan talks strategy at the Brookings Institution in the face of emerging challenges around the globe. brookings.edu
2 p.m. Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill. The Palm Center hosts House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, and House Armed Services committee Rep. Adam Smith to discuss transgender military service. palmcenter.org
2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Wilson Center hosts a discussion on what lies ahead for TSA. wilsoncenter.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. House Armed Services Committee will hear from Air Combat Command commander Gen. Herbert Carlisle on the critical role of the F-35 for air dominance. armedservices.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee host a panel of top generals and Defense Department officials to discuss President Obama’s nuclear deterrent modernization. armedservices.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee hosts a panel to discuss oversight of the European reassurance initiative. armedservices.house.gov
3:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Hudson Institute hosts Sens. Tom Cotton and Jon Kyl, and retired Gen. Charles Jacoby to discuss the future of space defense and missile technology. hudson.org
4:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council hosts Adm. Kurt Tidd, commander of U.S. Southern Command, to discuss strategy. atlanticcouncil.org
THURSDAY | JULY 14
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G50. Senate Armed Services committee will hear testimony on U.S. cybersecurity and national security. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Senate Foreign Relations committee discuss the Iran nuclear deal one year later. foreign.senate.gov
10 a.m. Cannon 311. House Homeland Security committee will discuss the new wave of terror to the homeland. homeland.house.gov
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz to discuss his new book on the nuclear deal with Iran. heritage.org
TUESDAY | JULY 19
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS hosts a panel of experts to discuss the risks and security of Afghanistan. csis.org
