THE CLOSING ARGUMENTS: Here are the quick takeaways from last night’s third and final presidential debate. Flash polls dubbed Hillary Clinton the winner, Donald Trump’s refusal to say he would accept the results of the voting was an unforced error that overshadowed everything else he said. Chris Wallace was generally judged to have been the most effective moderator of any of the debates, asking tough questions of both candidates, following up, and maintaining control, while letting the candidates go at each other.
On the national security front, there were vigorous disagreements on a number of issues.
Dealing with Vladimir Putin:
Trump: “I never met Putin. This is not my best friend. But if the United States got along with Russia, wouldn’t be so bad. Let me tell you, Putin has outsmarted her and Obama at every single step of the way.”
Clinton: “You are willing to spout the Putin line, sign up for his wish list, break up NATO, do whatever he wants to do, and that you continue to get help from him, because he has a very clear favorite in this race.”
More on that here.
Who is behind the WikiLeaks?
Clinton: “We have 17 intelligence agencies, civilian and military, who have all concluded that these espionage attacks, these cyberattacks, come from the highest levels of the Kremlin and they are designed to influence our election.”
Trump: “She has no idea whether it’s Russia, China, or anybody else… She has no idea.. And our country has no idea.”
Wallace: “The top national security officials of this country do believe that Russia has been behind these hacks. Even if you don’t know for sure whether they are, do you condemn any interference by Russia in the American election?”
Trump: “By Russia or anybody else… Of course I condemn. Of course I — I don’t know Putin. I have no idea.”
More on that here.
Relations with U.S. allies:
Clinton; “The United States has kept the peace through our alliances. Donald wants to tear up our alliances. I think it makes the world safer and, frankly, it makes the United States safer. I would work with our allies in Asia, in Europe, in the Middle East, and elsewhere. That’s the only way we’re going to be able to keep the peace.”
Trump: “I said Japan and Germany, and I’m — not to single them out, but South Korea, these are very rich, powerful countries. Saudi Arabia, nothing but money. We protect Saudi Arabia. Why aren’t they paying? … and I questioned NATO. Why aren’t the NATO questioned — why aren’t they paying? Because they weren’t paying. Since I did this — this was a year ago — all of a sudden, they’re paying. And I’ve been given a lot — a lot of credit for it.”
Timing of Iraq’s offensive to liberate Mosul:
Trump: “The only reason they did it is because she’s running for the office of president and they want to look tough. They want to look good. He violated the red line in the sand, and he made so many mistakes, made all the mistakes. That’s why we have the great migration. But she wanted to look good for the election. So they’re going in.”
Clinton: “I’m just amazed that he seems to think that the Iraqi government and our allies and everybody else launched the attack on Mosul to help me in this election, but that’s how Donald thinks. You know, he always is looking for some conspiracy.”
More on that here.
Will you put U.S. troops into that vacuum [in Iraq] to make sure that ISIS doesn’t come back?
Clinton: “I will not support putting American soldiers into Iraq as an occupying force. I don’t think that is in our interest, and I don’t think that would be smart to do. In fact, Chris, I think that would be a big red flag waving for ISIS to reconstitute itself.”
Trump: (Did not answer this question)
What will you do about Syria?
Clinton: I think a no-fly zone could save lives and could hasten the end of the conflict. I’m well aware of the really legitimate concerns that you have expressed from both the president and the general. This would not be done just on the first day. This would take a lot of negotiation. And it would also take making it clear to the Russians and the Syrians that our purpose here was to provide safe zones on the ground.”
Trump: “We don’t know who the rebels are. We’re giving them lots of money, lots of everything. We don’t know who the rebels are. And when and if — and it’s not going to happen, because you have Russia and you have Iran now. But if they ever did overthrow Assad, you might end up with — as bad as Assad is, and he’s a bad guy, but you may very well end up with worse than Assad.”
QUICK FACT CHECK: Trump made so many errors of fact, it was hard to keep up. He misstated the number of countries where ISIS is operating, he mischaracterized the START treaty with Russians and number of warheads each side can have, he distorted the conclusions of a State Department IG report on lack of documentation of $6 billion in contracts, and insisted the U.S. has no idea who was behind the WikiLeaks hacks, when as moderator Wallace pointed out, there is an official U.S. intelligence assessment that Russia did it. Not to mention Trump claimed the accusations of sexual misconduct from women had been “largely debunked,” and contradicted his own wife, insisting he never apologized to her because he didn’t do anything wrong. Wallace got into a bit of fact-checking himself, saying Trump had mischaracterized the situation in Aleppo during the previous debate.
We’ve got 20 days to go.
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ISIS LEADERS FLEE MOSUL: At last night’s debate Trump complained that the long-public buildup to the Mosul invasion gave Islamic State leaders plenty of time to get out of Dodge. The U.S. ground commander in Iraq, Maj. Gen. Gary Volesky confirms there is intelligence suggesting ISIS leaders are fleeing Mosul ahead of the Iraqi advance on the city, but that foreign fighters are essentially trapped there, because they can’t blend with the locals and slip past Iraqi checkpoints.
REPUBLICANS REBUKE OBAMA: Two top House Republicans are criticizing President Obama’s response to repeated Russian breaches of a nuclear treaty, and said his response will only encourage “more Russian misbehavior,” Susan Ferrechio writes. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes and House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry sent a letter this week to Obama that called on him to “take seriously” Russia’s breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty, and asked him to impose “economic penalties” and develop “military response options” to confront new Russian weapons.
IRAN’S YEMEN CONNECTION: U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Joseph Votel suggested yesterday Iran may have something to do with the decision of Houthi rebels to fire anti-ship missiles at U.S. and other vessels in international waters off the coast of Yemen. “I do think Iran is playing a role in this. They have a relationship with the Houthis,” Votel said at an event at the Center for American progress. “I do suspect there is a role in that.” Meanwhile, Reuters quotes U.S., Western and Iranian officials as saying Iran has stepped up weapons transfers to the Houthis. Former Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert writes on the risk of miscalculation in confrontations with Iran in the Cipher Brief.
ATTACK IN AFGHANISTAN: A man apparently dressed in an Afghan Army uniform killed two Americans, including one service member, in an attack on a base near Kabul yesterday. Three other people, including one service member, were wounded and listed in stable condition. The attacker was killed, and U.S. military is investigating whether this was a “green on blue” incident.
PHILIPPINES PRESIDENT WANTS A DIVORCE: Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has announced his “separation” from the United States. Reuters reports Duterte made the comment at a business forum in the presence of Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People during a four-day state visit to China.
RUSSIA’S POTEMKIN CARRIER: Analysts says Russia’s not-so-super aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, currently steaming to Syria is prone to frequent breakdowns and is not nearly as capable as U.S. carriers. “It pretty much always goes out with a tugboat,” said Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior research scientist at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. “On several of its most recent voyages, it’s had to put into port to have its boiler worked on.”
ANOTHER FAILED N. KOREA MISSILE TEST: For the second time in less than a week, North Korea has tried, and failed, to launch one of its intermediate-range Musudan missiles. As with the last test, U.S. Strategic Command says the missile failed immediately after launch early this morning.
U.S. THREATS TO NORTH KOREA: Less than 24 hours before the latest test, Secretary of State John Kerry announced the United States will proceed with a plan to deploy anti-ballistic missile defenses in response to North Korea’s actions, Joel Gehrke writes. Of course the U.S. has been saying this since last year, and it still hasn’t happened. “There should be no doubt that the United States will do whatever is necessary to defend ourselves and to honor the security commitments that we have made to allies, including to the Republic of Korea,” Kerry told reporters yesterday. “And we will deploy as soon as possible a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery to our Korean ally.” THAAD is made by Lockheed Martin. Defense Secretary Ash Carter, standing with Kerry and South Korean foreign and defense ministers, said “Make no mistake, any attack on America or our allies will not only be defeated, but also any use of nuclear weapons will be met with an overwhelming and effective response.” Carter hold a news conference with South Korean Defense Minister Han Min Koo at 11:15 a.m.
CEASE-FIRE SHAM? Syria says a temporary cease-fire is in effect to give people in the rebel held areas of Aleppo a chance to escape the fighting. In recent weeks, Syrian and Russian warplanes have pounded the city with punishing airstrikes that have targeted civilians and hospitals. Rebels say the ceasefire is a sham that is simply a pretext to empty rebel-held areas of civilians so the Syrian army can take over the whole city.
NATSEC HEAVYWEIGHTS BACK TRUMP’S PLAN: A group of 35 Republican lawmakers, retired high-ranking officers and former administration officials praised Trump’s defense plans in an open letter on Wednesday, claiming the Republican presidential nominee has proved his commitment to implementing a “comprehensive long-term plan” to rebuild the U.S. military and boost national security, Gabby Morrongiello writes. The letter, released by the billionaire’s campaign hours before the final presidential debate, claims Trump “is a better choice than Hillary Clinton to move our military in the right direction as president” and understands the “level of investment in defense” that is needed to ensure “our war fighters are properly trained, equipped and ready to face ever more complex threats with dominant military strength.”
FOUR STARS WHO DIDN’T MAKE THE CUT: Hillary Clinton was considering three retired four-stars as her running mate, according to WikiLeaks emails. Retired Marine Gen. John Allen, Adm. Bill McRaven and Adm. Mike Mullen all made the early list to be considered for vice president in a March 17 email from John Podesta. No mention of Adm. James Stavridis, who was speculated about at the time and is advising the Clinton campaign on national security.
THE RUNDOWN
Defense News: Updated B61 Nuclear Bomb to Cost $8.25 Billion
UPI: Navy selects radar for unmanned MQ-8C Fire Scout
Defense News: UK Regulatory Office May Investigate US Foreign Military Sales
Breaking Defense: The Next War? Trench Warfare With Smart Bombs
Defense News: DARPA Hands Over High-Tech Space Telescope to Air Force
Defense One: The US Needs One Cyber Defense Agency—Not Three, a Top NSA Official Says
Military.com: Apache Helicopters Take Action in Mosul Offensive
Washington Post: What does an adviser do? Mosul operation highlights elasticity of military support operations.
Wall Street Journal: Families Start to Flee Islamic State Near Mosul
Task and Purpose: American JTACs Return To Mosul. This Time To Crush ISIS
Reuters: Four-way talks move ahead on Ukraine, scant progress on Syria
War on the Rocks: Whodunnit? Russia and coercion through cyberspace
Army Times: Get out and vote but obey your oath, general tells officers
Air Force Times: Deep Freeze mission to Antarctica begins
Fox News: Iran seeking ‘many billions of dollars’ in ransom to free US hostages
Calendar
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 20
9 a.m. Pentagon River Entrance. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter hosts a formal ceremony welcoming Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Han Min Koo to the Pentagon. Joint news conference follows at 11:15 a.m. Steamed live at www.defense.gov.
9 a.m. United States Capitol Visitor Center – Congressional Auditorium. James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, speaks on the domestic security landscape and steps needed to address today’s domestic terrorist threats. The event is co-hosted by the Intelligence and National Security Alliance and Business Executives for National Security.
10:30 a.m. Baltimore Hilton Hotel, Baltimore. Adm. Michael Rogers, commander, U.S. Cyber Command, provides keynote remarks at the CyberMaryland Conference.
MONDAY | OCTOBER 24
9 a.m. Willard Intercontinental Hotel. Army Secretary Eric Fanning, Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James and Navy Secretary Ray Mabus talk about the transition to the next administration. Cnas.org
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The CSIS Aerospace Security Project hosts its inaugural event on the U.S. military and commercial space industry. csis.org
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 26
12:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The Stimson Center release its new report, “Military Budgets in India and Pakistan: Trajectories, Priorities, and Risks.” stimson.org
12:30 p.m. 901 17th St. NW. A group of experts talks about the defense relationship between the U.S. and Sweden, especially amid mounting Russian tension. atlanticcouncil.org
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 27
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A representative from the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs provides keynote remarks at an event looking at the cause of conflict in the Middle East. atlanticcouncil.org
