GULF INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: First thing this morning, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson will run through the mistakes and misjudgments that led to Iran’s seizure of two U.S. riverine boats and the detention of 10 U.S. Navy personnel in the Persian Gulf in January. It is not a pretty picture, as the sailors, and in particular their commanders, did almost everything wrong. The results of the five-month investigation will also reveal the punishments for all involved, including the unit’s commanding officer, who has since be reassigned. Check back here for more as the news happens.
TRANSGENDER DELAY: The Pentagon never said Defense Secretary Ash Carter would definitely announce the new transgender policy tomorrow, even though that was the tentative plan. Now aides suggest the release may be pushed into next week. (We did say “pencil it in” yesterday.) One aide to Carter says he’s telling the boss to wait. “We’ll see how much influence I have,” he told us. As for why it may not be ready to roll out before the July 4 holiday weekend, one source indicated not everyone in uniform was happy about all the aspects of the policy.
The AP has more on the behind-the-scenes hand-wringing: “Senior military leaders expressed deep concerns this week that the launch of new Pentagon rules allowing transgender service members to serve openly in the U.S. military is moving too quickly, arguing that a number of details and questions must still be resolved, several senior U.S. officials told The Associated Press.”
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HUNDREDS OF ISIS REPORTED KILLED: The Pentagon has yet to confirm a Reuters report that U.S.-led airstrikes killed as many as 250 Islamic State fighters yesterday, as the forces attempted to flee Fallujah in a convoy. U.S. officials told Reuters the preliminary battle-damage assessment concludes some 250 fighters were killed and at least 40 vehicles destroyed, making the strikes among the most deadly in memory.
STILL NO CLAIM: While the Islamic State remains the prime suspect in the terrorist attack on the Ataturk Airport in Istanbul that killed 42, there’s yet to be any claim of responsibility. Meanwhile, Turkey has detained 13 people, including three foreigners, as the investigation of links to the Islamic State continues, according to state broadcaster TRT. And the U.S. is moving toward permanently banning families from accompanying U.S. military and civilian personnel in Turkey, according to Reuters.
BLAME ASSESSMENT: Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain was quick to point the finger at the president’s strategy, or lack thereof, for the suicide attacks in Istanbul, telling us “no one should be surprised” by this week’s bombings. “It’s another manifestation of the failure of the president’s total lack of strategy or policy towards [the Islamic State] and as long as they have a terrorist geographic base, attacks will continue,” McCain said. While Turkish officials are already blaming the Islamic State for the attack, and McCain said they are “90 percent sure,” Sen. Jack Reed warned against jumping to early conclusions.
BRIEFINGS AND CONSULTATIONS: Carter and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford briefed senators in a closed session on Capitol Hill yesterday, telling them there was still no direct evidence of the Islamic State’s role in the attack. Carter also spoke by phone with Turkish Minister of Defense Fikri Işık yesterday, and agreed to talk more at next month’s NATO Summit in Warsaw, according to a Pentagon readout.
And Marco Rubio may have called it, Diana Stancy reports. “One of our NATO allies right now that faces the greatest threat of ISIS is Turkey,” Rubio said in an interview on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “I would not be surprised over the next few weeks to see major ISIS operations within Turkey itself.” You didn’t see it on the Sunday show, though, because that portion of the interview never aired.
ANTI-ISIS HANG-UP: Sen. Lindsey Graham told Joel Gehrke that while there’s broad support for a relief package for Iraq, the White House will fight it because it contains funds for Israel, too. “The problem is this sort of animosity, I guess, toward Bibi and his government,” he said.
ARE WE LOSING? “The percentage of Americans who believe the U.S. is winning the fight against terrorism has dropped 5 percentage points to 44 percent since 2010, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday,” Anna Giaritelli reports. “A net 41 percent of registered voters said the terrorists are winning in the fight the U.S. and allies’ fight to defeat violent militant groups. That figure has jumped 10 points from 31 percent in May 2010.
AFGHANISTAN ATTACK: Reports from Afghanistan this morning says two Taliban suicide bombers killed at least 27 and wounded around 40 in an attack on buses carrying recently graduated police cadets on the west of Kabul.
MARINES PROBE MUSLIM RECRUIT DEATH: About 15 Marine Corps drill instructors at Parris Island are under internal investigation over alleged hazing, physical abuse, assault and failure of supervision after the death of a young Muslim-American recruit, the Wall Street Journal reports. 20-year-old Raheel Siddiqui died on March 18 when he fell three stories off a barracks stairwell in an incident the Marine Corps at the time said was an apparent suicide.
SLOW ON THE NUCLEAR TRIGGER: At a rally in Bangor, Maine yesterday, Donald Trump insisted he’s the safest choice to control the nuclear codes that give the president the authority to launch Armageddon. “I would be the slowest with the button,” he claimed. “But I would be the one who doesn’t have to use it because they’re going to respect us again. Nobody respects us now.”
‘NO FLY’ BUY IN: Retired senior military officers have penned a letter to senators urging them to support a compromise bill that would prevent suspected terrorists on the no-fly list, as well as those on a list requiring extra airport screening, from buying a gun.
“Had this bill been law, the FBI might have been able to detect and stop the Orlando killer,” according to the letter, which is signed by 11 retired officers, including Gens. David Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal.
GITMO ANSWERS: Rep. Ed Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is hauling State and Defense Department witnesses before the committee to settle a discrepancy between previous testimony and classified reports after he says the administration has ignored requests to set the record straight. “Rather than explain or correct its testimony, the administration chose to ignore our formal inquiry. That’s unacceptable,” Royce said in a statement announcing the July 7 hearing with Lee Wolosky and Paul Lewis, the special envoys for Guantanamo closure at the State and Defense Departments, respectively.
SOUTH CHINA SEA VERDICT COMING: The Hague is set to issue its decision on China’s man-made islands and territorial claims in the South China Sea on July 12, the Wall Street Journal reported. The Philippines brought the case to the international court in 2013 to challenge claims in the body of water that overlap with other countries.
FROM REASSURANCE TO DETERRENCE: Former NATO supreme allied commander Philip Breedlove said yesterday that he expects the discussion at next month’s alliance summit in Warsaw to shift from reassuring each other that they had each other’s back (the topic of the summit two years ago) to making sure they have the forces they need to defend against Russia, David Wilkes reports.
STILL SPYING AFTER ALL THESE YEARS: An internal State Department document says China hasn’t slowed down its level of cyber spying, despite recent media reports, Rudy Takala writes. “While media reporting has emphasized this alleged decrease in malicious activity, cases of Chinese espionage campaigns against the U.S. private sector are ongoing,” the document says.
DON’T SELL TO IRAN: A Democratic lawmaker is joining Republicans who are asking the Obama administration to block Boeing’s pending sale of 100 commercial jets to Iran, Joel Gehrke reports. “I believe that the agencies under your control should not license transfers of aircraft to Iran Air at this time and for the foreseeable future,” wrote Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
$40 BILLION UP FOR GRABS: It’s one of the biggest fighter jet contracts in years. Japan is contacting foreign and domestic defense contractors to see who wants to build about 100 F-3 fighter jets, Reuters reports. Said to be in the running: U.S. companies Boeing and Lockheed Martin as well as Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
YOU BE THE JUDGE: The U.S. and Russian navies are offering conflicting narratives about an unsafe encounter in the eastern Mediterranean Sea this month. The U.S. version is that the Russian frigate kept cutting across the wake of the USS Gravely, until the American destroyer sped up to put a safe distance between the two warships. The Russian version is that the U.S. ship dangerously cut in front of the Russian frigate Yaroslav Mudry. The Moscow-controlled television network RT posted a video from the vantage point of the Russian ship on YouTube, so you can watch the carefully-edited portion of the encounter and judge for yourself.
BENGHAZI REVELATIONS: Amid accusations that the House Select Committee on Benghazi wasted money and turned up nothing new, Sarah Westwood compiled the nine biggest discoveries the committee made. If you haven’t seen the one about the Marine uniforms, it’s a must-read.
THE RUNDOWN
U.S. News: Yards from War, Miles From Peace, Ukraine’s troops at the front lines complain Kiev is needlessly hampering their ability to fight.
New York Daily News: Pentagon waives debt from ‘overpaid’ bomb squad members after previously demanding hundreds of thousands back from their salaries
Breaking Defense: F-35Bs Land In UK Today; Hover & Refueling Demos At RIAT, Farnborough
Defense News: BAE, Northrop Partner With UK Agency for F-35 Bid
UPI: Navy tests Magic Carpet carrier landing technology
Daily Beast: Donald Trump’s ‘Improved’ Muslim Ban Proposal Still Won’t Stop Terrorists
UPI: Air Force debuts Pave Hawk replacement helicopter
Defense News: UK Defense Industry Seeks ‘Bold’ Government Backing After Brexit Vote
Military Times: Five things to watch for in the Pentagon’s new transgender policy
USA Today: U.S. gives Iraq $2.7B credit to buy military equipment
Associated Press: The latest: Erdogan says Turkey will overcome terror groups
CNN: Istanbul terror attack witness: ‘It was like hell’
Associated Press: External attacks rise as Islamic State fortunes fall
Wall Street Journal: Fallujah’s Importance to Islamic State Helped Iraqi Forces Retake It
Calendar
THURSDAY | JUNE 30
12:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Stimson hosts former Rep. Mike Rogers to discuss U.S. intelligence, foreign policy, and national security. stimson.org
1 p.m 1501 Lee Highway Arlington, Va. Maj. Gen. Jeff Harrigian, director of F-35 integration office, and Col. Max Marosko, deputy director of air & space operations, discuss maintaining the 5th generation joint force advantage. mitchellaerospacepower.org
WEDNESDAY | JULY 6
2 p.m. Dirksen 342. Senate Homeland Security committee will examine the threat of ISIS online radicalization and recruitment, and how to counter it. hsgac.senate.gov
THURSDAY | JULY 7
8:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Rep. Mac Thornberry will discuss national security challenges facing the U.S. in light of the FY17 NDAA. heritage.org
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs committee will hear testimony on the administration’s reckless release of detainees from Guantanamo Bay. foreignaffairs.house.gov
