Daily on Energy, presented by Renew Biodiesel: European Union eyes paying off Poland to leave coal behind

The European Commission unveiled its Green Deal proposal this week, setting a roadmap for raising EU targets for emissions reductions. That includes aiming to adopt into law next year a target to go carbon-neutral by 2050 and unveiling a new 2030 target for the EU of at least a 50% cut from 1990 emissions.

That would almost certainly mean drastic changes for member countries like Poland and others in Eastern Europe that still rely heavily on fossil fuels.

The European Commission, though, thinks it has the solution: Money.

Frans Timmermans, a Dutch politician who is executive vice president of the European Green Deal, said he understands eliminating coal “is an incredibly intrusive measure” for countries like Poland.

“There should be clear expression of solidarity from the EU and other member states in this effort,” Timmermans told reporters in Madrid, on the sidelines of United Nations climate talks.

Timmermans touted the “Just Transition Mechanism” proposed in the Green Deal that would give money to the countries and economic sectors “most affected” by transitioning away from fossil fuels.

The pot of money would pull funding from the EU budget and the European Investment Bank and would be directed to things like “re-skilling programmes, jobs in new economic sectors, or energy-efficient housing,” according to the proposal.

Timmermans is also quite clear: “There is no future in coal” in the EU, he said.

Even while expressing understanding for Poland’s predicament, Timmermans also held the country’s feet to the fire. Poland should want to transition away from coal because it’s the best thing for its citizens, he said.

“If you look at Polish cities, you see that the air quality in the cities is really something to be worried about, something that needs to be dealt with quite urgently,” Timmermans said.

He later added that when Poland “changes the energy mix, it doesn’t do that to please other European nations. It does that because it improves the health of Polish citizens and it makes Poland ready for a longer term future.”

The EU Green Deal isn’t quite set in stone yet, though: Timmermans pushed back on criticism that the proposal doesn’t lock in a more ambitious target yet and instead calls for a separate plan next year outlining the new 2030 target. Some have urged the EU to require even deeper cuts by 2030, up to 55%.

Timmermans said the EU still has some number-crunching to do to make sure a stronger target would be possible.

He said he is “very much aware” the EU can only have an impact at the next global climate talks, where countries are supposed to raise their climate pledges under the Paris climate deal, “if we have our homework done and if we’re ready to show to the world what we’re going to do and at what pace.”

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‘JURY STILL OUT’ ON GRETA THUNBERG’S IMPACT: President Trump is tussling with Greta Thunberg this morning. It’s worth exploring how the Sweedish teenager’s outraged brand of activism is impacting policy.

“I admire her passion and the lengths she’s gone to in promoting what is a very important cause,” Shane Skelton, who runs the consulting group S2C Pacific, told Josh in a story posted this morning.

But he questioned whether Thunberg’s activism has produced “real-world impact.”

If the point of activism is to generate attention to a cause, no one can deny Thunberg’s effectiveness, climate hawks say.

However, “translating moral outrage into policy and engineering is a long and uneven process,” said Joseph Majkut, a climate scientist at the right-leaning Niskanen Center.

“I don’t have any qualms with Greta’s place in the climate debate,” Majkut said. “She doesn’t mince words when she calls inaction on climate change a moral outrage. As for her influence on climate action, the jury is out.”

Thunberg, who is Time’s youngest person of the year, acknowledged the relative lack of policy changes Wednesday morning, when she slammed world leaders at the U.N. climate conference in Madrid (see more on that from Abby below).

COP25 is a test case: Little progress is being made at the U.N. talks, during which countries are supposed to hammer out the remaining rules to implement the Paris climate agreement and to commit to even greater emissions reductions.

“So far, [Thunberg] has helped intensify the climate debate, but that has not had any consequential impact on policy,” said Barry Rabe, a professor of public policy at the University of Michigan.

Others, however, say Thunberg’s tactics have forced a worldwide conversation about an issue that has long been overshadowed.

“People are moved more by her passion and her sincerity and less by the details of her message,” said Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican congressman from Florida.

‘UNFORTUNATE SECURITY INCIDENT’: U.N. officials have agreed to let protesters whose badges were taken yesterday back into global climate talks in Madrid this week, after activists slammed U.N. security for bullying protesters in a “shameful” response to demonstrations for climate justice.

The protests that erupted twice Wednesday, led by youth and indigenous peoples’ activists, were an unusual sight for a typically formal annual conference. During the second incident, police ultimately forced more than 100 protesters outside and took their badges.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in a statement early Thursday, attempted to extend an olive branch for what it called an “unfortunate security incident.” The U.N. said it valued the importance of environmental groups participating in the climate conference and agreed to let protesters who were kicked out back into the conference, so long as they “request prior authorization” for future demonstrations consistent with U.N. guidelines.

The scene: Activists in the conference halls are increasingly angry and demanding fast action from global negotiators. In contrast, the negotiators, behind closed doors, are haggling over single words and phrases in crafting the final few technical rules to implement the Paris climate agreement, which they are supposed to finish Friday.

SPEAKING OF THE YOUTHS: Former Secretary of State John Kerry wants to bring them on board with his new climate initiative, dubbed World War Zero.

“We both traveled the same journey. I was once that kid in the street,” Kerry said during remarks Wednesday at the U.N. climate talks in Madrid. “I organized. I know what it means. I’ve been arrested.”

Kerry used his experience protesting the Vietnam War in the 1960s to appeal to the youth activists pushing for stronger and faster efforts to address climate change.

But he also urged them not to write off unlikely allies, particularly Republicans like former Governors Arnold Schwarzenegger and John Kasich who Kerry is partnering with for his new climate group.

MORE MESSAGES TO RUSSIA AS HOUSE PASSES NDAA: The House passed its bipartisan $738 billion defense policy bill Wednesday in a 377-to-48 lopsided vote, making sanctions on Nord Stream 2 closer to reality.

The bill, which is expected to be approved by the Senate and signed by Trump, would sanction companies constructing Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany and its TurkStream pipeline to Turkey.

Also Wednesday, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved bills targeting Russian energy, including legislation that would expedite U.S. LNG exports to NATO allies dependent on natural gas from Moscow.

“Russia continues to use its energy resources as a weapon to intimidate, influence and coerce our allies,” said Sen. John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican, who sponsored the bill. “Freeing Europe from Russian energy dependence will strengthen both our allies and our NATO alliance.”

Germany, meanwhile, pushed back Thursday morning against the impending U.S. sanctions on Nord Stream 2, accusing Congress and the Trump administration of meddling.

“European energy policy must be decided in Europe, not the U.S.,” Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told Bloomberg. “We fundamentally reject outside intervention and sanctions with extraterritorial effect.”

‘LIBERATION FROM RUSSIA’ IS COMING, BROUILLETTE BOASTS: Fresh off his swearing-in by Trump Wednesday, new Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette boasted that, since July, the U.S. has increased LNG exports to the European Union by nearly 600%, helping push European countries away from Russian gas.

That is “putting EU countries on the path to liberation from Russia,” Brouillette said Thursday in an address to the National Petroleum Council, a federal advisory committee to the Energy Department.

The petroleum council convened after completing two draft reports requested by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry on bolstering bolstering U.S. oil and gas transportation infrastructure and deploying carbon capture utilization and storage technologies (CCUS).

Brouillette said CCUS has “tremendous potential” to “drive down” U.S. carbon emissions.

But the petroleum council, in its report, said current federal policies for carbon capture are insufficient. It recommended increasing tax credits for captured carbon to $90 per ton within the next decade and $110 over 20 years — a more than doubling of existing subsidies.

Brouillette, in his remarks, also warned that “certain bad actors” — he means Democratic governors in the Northeast — are “trying to slow job creators and decrease benefits for consumers” by blocking oil and gas pipelines.

“If we want to continue this energy renaissance, we must ensure our energy infrastructure remains fully up to the job to deliver the energy we produce,” Brouillette said.

OPEC DEAL WON’T STOP OIL SURPLUS: Global oil supply will continue to rise next year despite a deal last week reached by OPEC and non-member countries led by Russia to cut more production to raise prices.

Global oil inventories could increase by 700,000 barrels per day in the first three months of 2020, the International Energy Agency projected Thursday in its monthly oil market report.

The projected surplus comes after Saudia Arabia-led OPEC and Russia agreed to cut oil production an extra 500,000 barrels per day through the end of March, adding to a previous agreement to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day.

But that total 1.7 million barrels per day of cuts won’t be enough to balance the market, IEA says.

KEEPING SCORE OF LATEST ALASKA LEASE SALE: The Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management completed Wednesday what it deemed its most successful oil and gas lease sale in Alaska in more than a decade.

It issued about 1 million acres of leases in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, producing more than $11 million in bids, mostly won by the company North Slope Exploration. That is 25% of the nearly 4 million acres that were offered for leasing, a better result than a 2018 lease sale in the petroleum reserve, when only about $1.5 million in bids were received for 6% of the offered acres.

Environmental groups, however, noted the land was leased at $11 an acre, a relatively low price compared to the $30 per acre paid in a 2016 lease sale, for example.

The latest lease sale for the petroleum reserve, which occur annually, came after BLM recently released a new draft leasing plan that included the possibility of opening an additional 6.5 million acres for drilling that is now off limits.

SOARING RESIDENTIAL SOLAR: There was a record 712 megawatts of residential solar power installed in the third quarter of 2019, according to the industry trade group Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

That is an 8% increase from the same period last year, a new report out Thursday found.

States with smaller solar markets such as Idaho, Wyoming, New Mexico and Iowa experienced record residential growth due to price declines and improvements to the economic competitiveness of solar.

California, the largest residential market, still accounted for about 40% of all installations in quarter three after recently reaching a milestone of having one million roofs with solar panels.

The Rundown

New York Times Natural gas boom fizzles as a US glut sinks profits

Wall Street Journal Northern California power outages could soar if aging lines aren’t replaced, PG&E study finds

Bloomberg Japan admits to ‘complex feelings’ in overcoming coal addiction

Reuters Shipping industry sails into unknown with new pollution rules

Bloomberg Aramco reaches prince’s $2 trillion goal in second-day surge

Calendar

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 17

10 a.m. to noon. 366 Dirksen. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing to consider the nomination of Lanny E. Erdos to be Director of the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement at the Interior Department.