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THE RUNDOWN: It’s Day 6 of COP28 in Dubai, and a critical draft is making its rounds among officials – one that is meant to inform the next stages of national emissions promises under the 2015 Paris Climate Accords.
Draft text dropped this morning for the “global stocktake,” which is an assessment of whether the globe is on track to reach the goals set by the Paris accords – which committed countries to limit an increase in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius, and ideally limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – and what nations can do to fix their shortcomings. The draft includes several options for curbing fossil fuels.
The options are as presented:
- An “orderly and just” phase out of fossil fuels,
- Accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels, and rapidly reduce their use to reach net-zero emissions by or around the mid-century,
- Adopting no text at all.
The significance: The global stocktake is considered the heart of the Paris climate accords, and consists of three components. The first stage includes gathering all the relevant information, which began two years ago. The second stage would evaluate the data – which, if you recall, came together in a technical report released in September. The report underlines that the world is falling short of the goals, and much more is needed to be done in order to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The third stage – and this is where the hard work begins – consists of conversations around the implications of the technical findings, and figuring out a path forward.
Why this is politically difficult: The goal is to have everyone from the Paris Agreement – nearly 200 countries – endorse a cogent plan by the end of the summit.
However, ahead of the release of the draft, a video surfaced of Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber – the Emirati oil executive who’s leading as president of the conference – saying there is “no science” behind the idea that fossil fuels must be phased out in order to keep global temperatures from rising above the levels set by the Paris accords.
During a panel discussion, Mary Robinson – the former president of Ireland who is also a prominent environmentalist – asked if Al Jaber would lead a global effort to transition from, and eventually phase out, the burning of fossil fuels. Al Jaber chastised the former official for the question, saying he expected a “sober and mature conversation,” not an alarmist one.
The panel discussion took place two weeks ago, but only came to light on Sunday when Al Jaber’s comments were reported by The Guardian.
A relevant statistic: All of this is occurring as the Global Carbon Project estimates that fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions rose another 1.1% in 2023, reaching a new record high of 36.8 billion tonnes of CO2, according to its latest report.
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OIL PRICE CAP LARGELY UNSUCCESSFUL AT ONE-YEAR MARK, NEW REPORT FINDS: Almost exactly one year since the G-7-backed Russian oil price cap took force, a new report says it has been largely unsuccessful in its goal of slashing Moscow’s fossil fuel revenue and thereby decreasing its war revenue, citing insufficient monitoring and enforcement as some of the primary reasons Russia has continued to rake in billions in profits.
According to the report, published today by the European think tank Centre on Energy and Clean Air, the oil price cap has cut Russia’s oil export profits by 14%, or by $37 billion.
But the majority of those reductions were concentrated in the first half of the year, leaving the impact “far short of what could have been achieved,” according to the report’s authors.
That’s primarily due to a lack of enforcement for oil price cap violators, Russia’s stepped-up use of illegal tankers to transport its oil, and the so-called refining loophole by which Russian crude is purchased, refined by third countries, and legally sold back to countries in the European Union and elsewhere that have banned Russian seaborne crude.
In order to more effectively implement the oil price cap, the report’s authors recommend slashing the capped price in half—to just $30 per barrel—and imposing stronger penalties on violators of the cap, such as a 90-day ban on using Western maritime services.
According to CREA, the recommended $30-per-barrel cap would have reduced Russia’s revenues by 49%.
The report comes as U.S. and EU leaders are weighing stronger methods of enforcement for the cap, including cracking down on third-country shipments of refined Russian oil products, and making good on the threat of imposing sanctions on violators of the cap. Read the report in full here.
PUTIN TO VISIT UAE AND SAUDI ARABIA, KREMLIN CONFIRMS: Russian President Vladimir Putin is slated to travel to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates tomorrow to discuss oil, the country’s invasion of Ukraine, and international affairs, according to a Kremlin spokesperson.
The visits come just one day before Putin is slated to host Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on Thursday—a flurry of Middle East diplomacy that come as the Russian strongman looks to build closer ties with non-Western countries, and especially with members of the nascent OPEC+ group forged in 2016.
While in Saudi Arabia, officials said Putin will meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss OPEC+ cooperation and the new voluntary oil supply cuts introduced by the group late last week.
Putin foreign policy adviser Yury Ushakov described Saudi-Russian OPEC+ cooperation as “fruitful,” telling Russian news agencies: “Fairly close Russian-Saudi coordination in this format is a reliable guarantee of maintaining a stable and predictable situation in the global oil market.”
Putin also plans to discuss Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine while visiting with Saudi and UAE leaders, Ushakov confirmed.
WALBERG’S CARS ACT: The House Rules Committee considered a bill Monday that would prohibit the Environmental Protection Agency from finalizing a rule imposing emission standards for certain vehicles – bringing forward another effort by Republicans to reverse the Biden administration’s rulemaking. The measure, however, is expected to be stalled in the Senate.
The Choice in Automobile Retail Sales (CARS) Act, led by Republican Rep. Tim Walberg of Michigan, would bar the agency from enacting a proposed rule that would impose more stringent standards for light-duty and medium-duty vehicles whose model years fall between 2027 and 2032. The bill would also prohibit the use of the Clean Air Act to issue regulations that mandate the use of specific technology or that limit the availability of new motor vehicles based on the engine type. The measure would require the EPA to update any such existing regulations within two years.
“The bill emphatically provides the necessary and appropriate pushback on the Biden administration’s rush to make Americans own electric vehicles – whether or not they can afford them, and whether or not it makes sense for each Americans’ particular needs,” Walberg said during his opening remarks.
Walberg also made the note that enforcing these standards would be “handing China the keys to America’s auto future,” which leads the globe in EV sales.
The Democratic defense: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters of California pushed back on the legislation, arguing that the rule is not an EV mandate – but rather a performance-based regulation that is not “technology-prescriptive.” Furthermore, Peters warned that passing this bill would prevent the agency from finalizing any vehicle emissions standards in the future, and could affect automobiles other than just EVs.
“H.R. 4468 would peril consumer choice, and send a signal to the auto industry and the world that the U.S. wants no part of the EV industry – ceding our global clean energy leadership to our competitors, including China,” the California Democrat said in his opening remarks.
Neguse’s criticism: While hammering Republicans for bringing forth partisan legislation, Democratic Rep. Joe Neguse of Colorado noted that the bill is likely not going to become law.
Although the measure is likely to pass the GOP-controlled House, it faces long odds in the Senate, given the Democratic majority. Furthermore, the Biden administration issued a statement of administrative policy on Monday threatening to veto the legislation, echoing many of the same concerns highlighted by Peters.
Looking ahead: The measure will be debated today, and is expected to come up for a vote sometime this week.
UN TELLS LATIN AMERICA TO SPEND UP TO 4.9% OF GDP ON CLIMATE: Latin America and the Caribbean countries must boost their spending to up to 4.9% of gross domestic product annually in order to meet their 2030 climate goals, according to a new report from the UN’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
The report says countries in the region will have to spend between 3.7% and 4.9% of GDP annually, compared to just 0.5% they spent in 2020, to bring their combined total investments to $2.8 trillion by the end of the decade.
Climate mitigation is expected to account for the bulk of the region’s spending through 2030, the agency said—primarily for projects involving issues of transportation, infrastructure, and deforestation. A remaining third of the funding is expected to be funneled toward adaptation efforts, such as warning systems, coastal protections, and water sanitation.
The study comes as some countries in the region, including Uruguay, Brazil, and Argentina have already been hit by extreme weather that has wreaked havoc on their farmlands or agricultural sectors.
“The cost of inaction outweighs the cost of action,” ECLAC Executive Secretary Jose Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs said during the presentation of the report. Read more from Reuters here.
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