President Joe Biden‘s spate of legislative wins may be the talk of Washington, but critics are skeptical the actions will dramatically change the dynamic of November’s midterm elections.
The White House and congressional Democrats have crowed about the evenly divided Senate approving a climate and healthcare spending bill on a party-line vote this past weekend after a yearlong negotiation, among other bipartisan measures, improving gas prices, strong jobs numbers, and the killing of al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri. But 90 or so days before the election cycle, many remain unconvinced they will mitigate Biden’s record, economic conditions, and historical trends.
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In states such as Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin, which are hosting this week’s primary elections, politicos contend Biden and congressional Democrats’ wins seem “far away.”
“Voters now are facing inflation, crime, and a deep sense that the country is heading in the wrong direction,” Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, told the Washington Examiner. “Legislative wins are important but are for the future and the next campaign. It won’t have much impact this fall.”
Biden’s approval ratings have stabilized, now averaging about 40%, according to FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics. But Jacobs is right. On average, only 20% of poll respondents agree Biden is leading the country in the right direction, compared to 73% who complain it is on the wrong track. And while Democrats retain a slight advantage in the Senate, according to some prognosticators who consider the contestable Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin seats to be toss-up elections, the same cannot be said for the House or congressional generic ballot polling.
Republicans dispute the “win” description despite their support, for example, for the $550 billion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act, and Biden and Democrats’ gun and veterans legislation. Instead, they criticize the partisan $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act and $700 billion Inflation Reduction Act, the weekend’s climate-healthcare bill.
Republicans, including party strategist John Feehery, assert that the climate-healthcare bill “is an inside-the-Beltway blockbuster but an outside-the-Beltway bust.”
“I can’t see how any of this legislative activity will have any impact on the elections,” the former House staffer said. “This latest bill won’t reduce inflation, won’t give most taxpayers any kind of tax cut, won’t lower drug prices, and won’t do much of anything for most voters.”
Fellow Republican strategist Josh Holmes, a Senate veteran, similarly tweeted: “Looks like lots of people are going to be surprised that the American people weren’t asking for an audit, tax increase, new mail trucks, or to buy their rich neighbor an electric car.”
Looks like lots of people are going to be surprised that the American people weren’t asking for an audit, tax increase, new mail trucks, or to buy their rich neighbor an electric car.
— Josh Holmes (@HolmesJosh) August 8, 2022
Likewise, the Republican National Committee’s messaging is economic. That coincides with July’s highly anticipated inflation data, which is expected Wednesday, after June’s 12-months-ending 9.1% figure and Friday’s consumer confidence report.
“No, nobody is winning in Biden’s economy,” RNC spokeswoman Nicole Morales said. “Biden and Democrats just raised taxes on families during a recession, sent gas and grocery prices sky high, and have only wasted more taxpayer dollars.”
She added: “For Democrats to claim a ‘victory’ at this point only underscores how deeply out of touch they are with the struggles facing Americans.”
Democrats disagree. One Senate aide also cited “the Supreme Court’s attacks on women’s freedoms” as another factor that will influence these elections.
The White House has particularly defended Biden and Democrats from criticism regarding the climate-healthcare bill tax provisions. Republicans argue its $80 billion for IRS funding, $45.6 billion of which is for “enhanced enforcement,” will punish middle-class taxpayers who may not be able to afford accountants and lawyers.
“Congressional Republicans came to the defense of corporations earning more than $1 billion per year who use loopholes to pay $0 in taxes,” press secretary Jean-Pierre said Monday aboard Air Force One en route to Kentucky. “The American people don’t think that’s fair. And we know that. That is a popular thing that we know Americans think, but apparently, congressional Republicans think it’s a hill to die on.”
Biden, who was in Kentucky to survey and be briefed on the commonwealth’s deadly storm and flood damage, his first official post-COVID-19 trip, spoke about the Senate clearing the climate-spending bill too. The president’s efforts to take credit come after the White House ceded control of negotiations to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).
“We passed yesterday helping to take care of everything from healthcare to God knows what else,” Biden said in Lost Creek.
Earlier, at Delaware’s Dover Air Force Base, Biden additionally conceded that voters may not experience all the bill’s benefits before the elections.
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“Some of it is not going to kick in for a little bit, but it’s all good,” he said. “When you sit down at that kitchen table at the end of the month, you’re going to be able to pay a whole hell of a lot more bills because you’re paying less in medical bills.”
