Budget concerns weigh heavy on Pentagon plans to recover lost readiness

“The Marine Corps was hammered by a storm at Camp Lejeune. We were hammered at Tyndall and at Offutt,” Wilson testified before the House Armed Services Committee. “Last week, I had to stop 61 facility projects in 18 states. If we get to the first of May and we still don’t have any help, we’re going to have to put a pause on Tyndall recovery, where it’ll affect flight operations and we’ll have people there who will have to continue to work in degraded facilities,” said Wilson, who is leaving at the end of next month to become president of the University of Texas at El Paso.

WE NEED HELP: “Obviously there’s partisan politics going on right now. If the disasters had hit New York or Vermont, I have no doubt … that assistance would have already been provided,” said Rep. Austin Scott, R-Ga., noting that two disaster relief bills failed to pass the Senate Monday. “We need a supplemental to pass within the next eight days. … Eight days from now, we leave for Easter break, and we do not return until April 30th.”

“We need help making sure people understand the damage that is going to be done if we don’t get a bill passed,” Scott pleaded. “And it’s embarrassing to ask you this, but some of you are going to have to get on the news and talk about [it]. And when I say get on the news, it’s got to happen now.”

THE SPECTER OF SEQUESTER: For the past two years, Congress has operated under a bipartisan agreement that allowed the defense budget to be passed on time. But with Congress now more divided, and President Trump no longer interested in trading higher domestic spending for higher defense spending, another two-year deal seems unlikely, raising the specter of the dreaded “sequester,” which if triggered would cut programs by $125 billion over the next two years.

“I think of the evil word ‘sequester.’ If my mother was still alive and I said that, she’d rinse my mouth out with soap, and I think that speaks volumes on how I feel about that,” said Rep. Paul Cook, R-Calif.

Democrats in the House have already dismissed Trump’s plan out of hand. It would have done an end run around the budget caps, which expire in two years, by putting an extra $98 billion in the discretionary overseas contingency operations account.

Yesterday, House Budget Committee chairman John Yarmuth, D-Ky., unveiled a proposal that would increase military and domestic spending caps for these final two years. The bill would raise the 2020 nondefense cap to $631 billion, a $34 billion increase, and the defense cap to $664 billion, a $17 billion increase. In 2021, the caps would increase to $646 billion for nondefense and $680 billion for defense, according to the Hill.

PUT ON NOTICE: Democrats also registered their displeasure with President Trump’s plan to reprogram $1 billion in unspent money from the Army’s personnel account to build more border wall by funneling the funds through the Pentagon’s counter-narcotics account.

Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., said the result will be that Congress will take that ability away from the Pentagon. “Do not expect transfer authorities in the coming year,” he said, repeating for emphasis. “Do not expect transfer authorities in the coming year because of what has happened this year.”

But Republicans admonished Democrats, saying that Congress has no one to blame but itself. “When it comes to the reprogramming, I don’t think it’s optimal either. I don’t think this is the way we should’ve gone forward,’ said Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb. “But Congress had the opportunity to work with the president, find a compromise for border funding, and it did not. It went backwards from the original position. And now, today we are left a crisis.”

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: As NATO foreign ministers gather in Washington to mark the 70th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will address a joint meeting of the House and Senate in the House chambers at 11 a.m. It will be live streamed at www.c-span.org.

ANTI-NATO PROTESTS: A coalition of various anti-NATO groups plans a roving protest to “nonviolently unwelcome” the NATO foreign ministers to Washington and call for the abolition of the alliance. This morning, protesters plan to gather at the Shepherd statue at 14th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. at 8 a.m. as NATO ministers meet nearby. They plan to move to the Russell Senate Office Building at 11 a.m. as Stoltenberg addresses Congress. And from noon to 10 p.m., a “peace festival” is planned at St. Stephen church, 1525 Newton Street N.W.

FUZZY MATH: Stoltenberg paid a courtesy call on President Trump at the White House yesterday, and Trump couldn’t help once again misstating the amount of additional money NATO members have begun paying to build up their own militaries under a 2014 agreement and misrepresenting how the funding affects U.S. defense spending.

“Since I came to office, it’s a rocket ship up,” Trump said. “We’ve picked up over $140 billion of additional money, and we look like we’re going to have at least another $100 billion more in spending by the nations, the 28 nations.” That’s $240 billion.

When it was Stoltenberg’s time to talk, he did not directly contradict the president. He just calmly gave the correct figure. “NATO allies have now started to invest more,” he said. “And by the end of next year, they will have added $100 billion into their defense budgets since you took office.”

So that’s $100 billion by the end of 2020, not $240 billion.

UNFAIR TO US: Trump also continues to be confused about how shortfalls in spending by other NATO countries affect the U.S. “They’re not paying what they should be paying, they’re paying close to 1 percent and they’re supposed to be paying 2 percent, and the United States over the years got to a point where it’s paid 4.3 percent, which is very unfair,” Trump complained. “So we’re paying for a big proportion of NATO, which basically is protecting Europe, so we’re protecting Europe.”

In fact, the U.S. defense budget does not go up or down depending on what other NATO countries spend, and the direct support for NATO is determined by a formula. When other countries spend less on defense, it lessens NATO’s collective capabilities, but it does not directly translate into higher costs for the United States.

“It’s called burden-sharing and, as you know, when I came, it wasn’t so good. And now it’s catching up,” Trump said. “We have 7 of the 28 countries are currently current and the rest are trying to catch up, and they will catch up. And some of them have no problems because they haven’t been paying and they’re very rich.”

TROUBLE WITH FACTS: Sometimes Trump just gets carried away with a good story. Yesterday he also mixed up an account of his family tree. “My father is German, right — was German and born in a very wonderful place in Germany, and so I have a great feeling for Germany.”

Fred Trump was born in the Bronx on October 11, 1905. However, Friedrich Trump, his grandfather, was born in what was then the Kingdom of Bavaria before emigrating to the United States in 1885 at the age of 16.

SHANAHAN PREDICTS TURKEY TURNAROUND ON F-35: A day after the Pentagon blocked the transfer of F-35 technology to Turkey and put the delivery of two F-35 jets on hold, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan was curiously optimistic that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would cave to U.S. pressure and buy American Patriot missiles not Russian S-400 air defenses.

The dispute with Turkey over its insistence on acquiring the Russian system — which the United States says would compromise the F-35’s stealthy defenses — has cast a bit of a pall over this week’s NATO festivities.

But shortly after the U.S. Air Force general nominated to be NATO’s supreme commander expressed reservations to Congress about Turkey “co-locating” U.S. F-35s and Russian S-400 missiles, Shanahan told reporters at the Pentagon he expects Turkey will eventually reject the S-400s and buy U.S. Patriot missile batteries instead.

“I’ve had a number of conversations with defense minister [Hulusi] Akar, and I really think we’ll resolve this situation,” Shanahan said. “I am very confident in the Patriot proposal that we’ve delivered to Turkey, its availability, its pricing, and, very importantly, the industrial participation that comes along with the Patriot system.”

As for the two F-35s Turkey has already paid for that are being kept at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona for the training of Turkish pilots, “I expect them to be delivered,” Shanahan said.

BORDER VACILLATION: Trump said yesterday he hasn’t decided whether to close the U.S. border with Mexico while in the next breath insisting he is “100 percent” ready to do it.

“I haven’t made that intention known, and I’m ready to close it if I have to close it. Mexico, as you know, as of yesterday, has been starting to apprehend a lot of people at their southern border coming in from Honduras and Guatemala and El Salvador, and they’re really apprehending thousands of people,” Trump said at first.

Then he seemed to indicate his beef was not with Mexico but with Democrats in Congress. “If we don’t make a deal with Congress, the border’s going to be closed, 100 percent, and this should have been done by other presidents,” he said.

While vacillating between blaming Mexico and the Democrats, Trump admitted that closing the border would have a devastating impact on the U.S. economy. “Sure, it’s going to have a negative impact on the economy,” he said. “But let me just give you a little secret: Security is more important to me than trade.”

“So we’re going to have a strong border or we’re going to have a closed border,” he continued. “So I’m totally prepared to do it. We’re going to see what happens over the next few days.”

THE 45-MIN SOLUTION: “What we have to do is Congress has to meet quickly and make a deal,” Trump said, adding, “I could do it in 45 minutes.”

“We need to get rid of chain migration, we need to get rid of catch and release and visa lottery, and we have to do something about asylum, and to be honest with you, you have to get rid of judges.”

WALL OF OPPOSITION: But Democrats in Congress argue that while there is a real problem at the border, the president’s proposals are not real solutions. “With all the problems that we have down there, to take $5, $6, $10, $20 billion, whatever it is, to build a vanity wall, that does not solve the problem,” said Adam Smith, D-Wash., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. “Yes, we’ve got big problems at the border. The solutions coming out of the White House are making it worse not better, and I darn sure don’t want to take $6, $7, $8 billion out of DoD to build some wall that isn’t going to make the situation any better.”

YEMEN STRIKES: U.S. Central Command posted a news release Monday noting that the United States has conducted eight airstrikes in Yemen so far this year targeting al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, known as AQAP, including one in January that targeted Jamal al-Badawi, one of the planners of the attack on the USS Cole in 2000.

“In coordination with the government of Yemen, U.S. forces continue to support ongoing counterterrorism operations against AQAP and ISIS-Y to disrupt and destroy militants’ attack-plotting efforts, networks, and freedom of maneuver within the region,” said Lt. Col. Earl Brown, a CENTCOM spokesman.

Bill Roggio, writing in the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal, notes the number of strikes targeting AQAP has decreased sharply, from 131 attacks in 2017 to 36 in 2018, without any explanation from CENTCOM. “Possible reasons for the slow in tempo include diversion in resources to aid the Yemeni government and the Saudi-led coalition in its fight against the Iran-backed Houthis, which control the capital of Sanaa, and increased scrutiny of US operations that result in civilian deaths.”

WAR IN SOMALIA: Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., believes the U.S. support to the government of Somalia in battling al Shabab militants amounts to a U.S. war on Somalia. At yesterday’s Armed Services Committee hearing, Warren questioned Army Gen. Stephen Townsend, nominated to be the next U.S. Africa Command head.

“Gen. Townsend, are we at war with Somalia?” she asked.

“No, senator, we’re not at war with Somalia. But we are carrying out our operations against violent extremist organizations in Somalia. It is a designated active area of hostility,” Townsend replied.

“So if I ask families of civilians that have been killed or injured in these airstrikes, do you think they’d say we’re at war? The U.S. is at war with Somalia?” Warren asked, pressing her point.

“I imagine, senator, that they might say that. But I don’t know that,” said Townsend.

“I just want to say, make no mistake, we’re at war with Somalia, and there is remarkably little debate about that fight and about whether we’re having success in reaching our objectives. I think we need to rethink our Somali strategy,” Warren concluded.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: NATO turns a wary eye toward China

Stars and Stripes: China’s State-Run Media Blames U.S. For Tensions In Taiwan Strait

Defense News: House Dems Offer $733B For Defense In 2020 In Two-Year Budget Caps Deal

USNI News: AFRICOM Nominee: Russia, China Making Major Strategic Inroads in Africa

Reuters: Russia Says It Has Opened Helicopter Training Center In Venezuela

Defense One: It’s Time To Make Data Strategic For Our Navy

Washington Examiner: My darkest day in Afghanistan

Washington Post: The Islamic State’s refugees are facing a humanitarian calamity

Air Force Magazine: Debris Again Causes Air Force to Pause KC-46 Acceptance

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | APRIL 3

9:30 a.m. 192 Dirksen. Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing on the FY 2020 budget request for the Defense Health Program. Testifying are Vice Adm. Raquel Bono, director, Defense Health Agency, Surgeon General of the Army Lt. Gen. Nadja West, Surgeon General of the Navy Vice Adm. Forrest Faison III, Surgeon General of the Air Force Lt. Gen. Dorothy Hogg, and Stacy Cummings, program executive officer, Defense Healthcare Management Systems. appropriations.house.gov.

12 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. The Center for Strategic and International Studies Southeast Asia Program event on strategic cooperation between the U.S and Vietnam. Live streamed at www.csis.org.

1:45 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces. Witnesses: Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security; Gen. John Raymond, Air Force Space Commander; Christina Chaplain, Government Accountability Office. armedservices.house.gov

2:30 p.m. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities on countering weapons of mass destruction. Witnesses: Guy Roberts, assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs; Theresa Whelan, under secretary of defense for policy; Vice Adm. Timothy Szymanski, deputy U.S. Special Operations commander; and Vayl Oxford, director, Defense Threat Reduction Agency. armedservices.house.gov

2:30 p.m. SR-222 Russell. Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing on Missile Defense Policies and Programs. Witnesses: John Rood, under secretary of defense for policy; Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy, commander, U.S. Northern Command; Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, director, Missile Defense Agency; Lt. Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command. www.armed-services.senate.gov

3 p.m. SR-232A Russell. Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower hearing on Navy and Marine Corps Aviation Programs. Witnesses: Vice Adm. Michael Moran, principal military deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, deputy commandant for aviation, headquarters of the U.S. Marine Corps; Rear Adm. Scott Conn, director, air warfare, office of the Chief of Naval Operations. www.armed-services.senate.gov

THURSDAY | APRIL 4

8 a.m. 1030 15th Street, N.W. The Atlantic Council’s “Conversation on Water Security in Asia and the Implications for the Continent’s Peace and Security,” featuring remarks by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I. Open to the public and press. Register at www.atlanticcouncil.org.

9:30 a.m. SD-G50 Dirksen. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on posture of the Department of the Air Force. Witnesses: Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein. www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee. Witnesses: Vice Adm. Mat Winter, F-35 Program Executive Officer; Rear Adm. Scott Conn, office of the chief of naval operations; Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, deputy Marine Corps commandant for aviation; Lt. Gen. David Berger, Marine Corps Combat Development Command; Daniel Nega, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition – air; and Jimmy Smith, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition – expeditionary programs and logistics management. armedservices.house.gov

10:30 a.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing on “Mismanaged Military Family Housing Programs.” Witnesses: Thomas Modly, under secretary of the Navy; Robert McMahon, assistant secretary of defense for sustainment; John Henderson, assistant secretary of the Air Force for installations, environment, and energy; and Alex Beehler, assistant secretary of the Army for installations, energy, and environment. armedservices.house.gov

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Hudson Institute event: “Making Military Cloud a Success: Critical Next Steps for DoD’s IT Strategy.” Speakers: Fred Schneider, professor, Cornell University, and founding chairman, National Academies Forum on Cyber Resilience; William Schneider, senior fellow, Hudson Institute; and Arthur Herman, senior fellow and director, Quantum Alliance Initiative, Hudson Institute. www.hudson.org/events

TUESDAY | APRIL 9

9 a.m. 1152 15th Street N.W. Center for a New American Security briefing on “NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting and 70th Anniversary of the Alliance.” www.cnas.org/events

11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. Hudson Institute event: “Risks and Opportunities of Emerging Technologies: A Conversation with Congressman Mike McCaul,” ranking Republican, House Foreign Affairs Committee. www.hudson.org.

TBA: President Trump welcomes Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sissi to the White House.

THURSDAY | APRIL 11

9:00 a.m. 1667 K Street N.W. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments releases a report, “An Air Force for an Era of Great Power Competition,” which recommends creating a future aircraft inventory that would be more lethal and better able to operate in future contested and highly contested environments compared with today’s force. Experts include: Mark Gunzinger, Carl Rehberg, Jacob Cohn, Timothy Walton, Lukas Autenried. Register at www.csbaonline.org.

10:30 a.m. United States Naval Academy. Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., delivers keynote address at a “National Discussion on Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment at America’s Colleges, Universities, and Service Academies.” Hosted by the secretaries of the Navy, Army, and Air Force. www.usna.edu