With the specter of impeachment looming over President Trump in the wake of the Biden-Ukraine controversy, liberals giddy at the thought of tossing the president out of office are forgetting one important thing: If Trump goes, Vice President Mike Pence takes over.
That’s right: If Trump is impeached and (however unlikely it may seem) removed by the GOP-controlled Senate, Pence would become our new commander in chief. As much as liberals and progressives hate Trump, a Pence presidency is arguably worse from their perspective.
But are they justified in their concerns?
Some Democratic politicians, such as South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, love to use Pence as a foil, painting him as a vicious homophobe. Upon his selection as Trump’s running mate, progressives and activists (falsely) claimed that Pence supports “conversion therapy” and warned gay people would face rampant oppression under a Trump-Pence administration.
Suffice it to say that this doomsday has not materialized. Not even close. But it’s worth examining nonetheless what actual threat, left-wing rhetoric aside, gay and lesbian Americans might face under a hypothetical (for now) Pence presidency.
A sober analysis of a prospective Pence administration reveals that there’s not too much to actually be concerned about, at least on the narrow issue of gay rights and freedoms.
Gay marriage, for example, is here to stay. There’s little appetite or momentum in the conservative legal movement for pursuing an overturning of Obergefell v. Hodges, and Chief Justice John Roberts would almost certainly block any such overturning due to its highly disruptive nature. So while, yes, Pence is an opponent of marriage equality, his stance wouldn’t in any likelihood have much impact as president.
And it’s not as if Pence actually harbors hate or seeks to harm gay people. He is close friends with Ambassador Richard Grenell, the highest-ranking gay official in the Trump administration, and Pence is cordial and courteous to gay people throughout his political circles. His personal religious views may be considered anti-gay, but that doesn’t mean he actively seeks to harm anyone. Pence has fully supported Trump’s initiative to combat the criminalization of homosexuality worldwide.
Basically, it’s unlikely that much would change under ‘President Pence’ as far as gay rights are concerned. And the changes that would take place would probably be more marginal.
‘President Pence’ would certainly be less likely to celebrate Pride Month, wave the rainbow flag at a rally, or laud Buttigieg’s marriage, as Trump has done. And yes, you’d no doubt see even more emphasis placed on religious freedom exemptions in areas such as adoption agencies declining same-sex parents, federal contractors having religious hiring policies, and so on. While gay and transgender activists might oppose such exemptions, it’s a far cry from the end of the world.
You might even see more comfort with subtle anti-gay policies or groups emerge under Pence, in that he would be more likely to bring groups such as the Family Research Council into the fold. For the moment, they’ve largely become irrelevant. It’s also possible Pence might be more willing to overlook questionable anti-gay comments or biases on nominees’ parts or elevate ultra-social conservatives to higher prominence in his administration.
All of this would be less than ideal, but it’s hardly the nightmare that liberals predict. It’s probably true that a Pence presidency would represent a step backward, from the perspective of gay Republicans, especially when compared to Trump, who is pretty much laissez-faire on the issue. But it surely wouldn’t be the end of the world. In fact, most gay people — who aren’t on Twitter or obsessed with the ins and outs of politics in D.C. — probably wouldn’t notice any real difference in their lives at all.
