REASSURING NERVOUS ALLIES: There was a time not that long ago when America’s commitment to NATO was unquestioned. But while President Joe Biden was taking a victory lap in Helsinki, Finland, after last week’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, a Finnish reporter asked the question that’s been on many European minds: “What actions will you take to assure Finland that the U.S. will remain a reliable NATO partner for decades to come?”
“I absolutely guarantee it,” Biden fired back, only to quickly admit that’s something he can’t control. “You know, no one can guarantee the future.”
The unspoken subtext is the fear that a second Donald Trump term could well result in the U.S. withdrawing from NATO in the same way Trump, during his first term, exited the Paris Climate Accords, the INF treaty, and the Iran nuclear deal.
On Fox this week, Trump recalled how he threatened allies that the U.S. would not come to their defense under NATO’s Article 5 provision if they didn’t pay nonexistent back dues. “They said, ‘Are you going to protect us from Russia?’ I said, ‘Are you delinquent?’ They said, ‘Let’s assume we were.’ I said, ‘I will not protect you from Russia,’” Trump told Sean Hannity in a town hall Tuesday night.
The fears were also stoked by the opposition of some Republicans in Congress to additional aid to Ukraine and a failed amendment introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) that would have directed Biden to withdraw from NATO, deeming the alliance “not a reliable partner.”
SENATE ADVANCES MEASURE TO TIE PRESIDENT’S HANDS ON NATO WITHDRAWAL
THE KAINE-RUBIO AMENDMENT: As the Senate began consideration of the $886 billion National Defense Authorization Act, one of the first amendments adopted was from Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) to strip the president of the power to pull out of the trans-Atlantic alliance.
“A question has been open for some time about whether a president could unilaterally withdraw from NATO, and that makes our NATO allies nervous,” said Kaine before the amendment passed 65-28.
The bill specifies that “no president of any party, at any time, can withdraw from NATO without congressional action,” said Kaine. “It will be seen by our NATO allies as a strong validation that Congress stands with and appreciates what NATO has been doing.”
At the same time, the Senate overwhelmingly shot down an amendment proposed by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) that would have made America’s commitment to come to the defense of allies not so ironclad. Paul’s amendment that would have required congressional authorization for a war triggered by Article 5 failed 83-16.
SENATE VOTES DOWN MEASURE TO REIN IN NATO WAR-MAKING AUTHORITY
COULD BE A LONG, HOT SUMMER: Despite every argument the Pentagon and some congressional colleagues have made, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) remains convinced of the justness of his one-man effort to force Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to rescind his policy giving paid time off and reimbursing expenses for service members who need to travel to obtain legal abortions.
Tuberville insists the policy violates the ban on the use of federal funds to perform abortions, and was unmoved by a Pentagon briefing provided to the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday outlining the legal justification for the policy.
“The Defense Department laid out clear, plain facts to the committee. The Department of Justice has examined the Pentagon’s policy and found it to be entirely legal, consistent with 40 years of precedent through both Republican and Democratic administrations,” said Committee Chairman Jack Reed (D-RI). “Presented with these facts, only willful ignorance or stubborn hubris could lead one to continue to claim that this policy is illegal.”
Tuberville has said he wants a floor vote to rescind the policy, but he has not committed to dropping his hold on more than 260 military nominations if the vote fails. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said he’ll allow a vote and did not rule out the possibility of keeping the Senate in session over the usual August recess to begin confirming officers one by one.
“Our first job is to pass NDAA, and then we’ll see what happens,” Schumer said. “In terms of Tuberville, both [Sens. Mitch] McConnell (R-KY) and [John] Thune (R-SD) have disagreed strongly with what Tuberville is doing. It is their responsibility to get him to stop this policy, which is reckless and hurts our national security.”
The only other alternative would be to change the Senate rules that allow a single senator to block confirmations indefinitely. “The problem with getting rid of the holds is you dramatically reduce the uniqueness of the Senate, which is that every single member can have an impact. And so I’m reluctant to go down that path,” said McConnell, the Senate minority leader. “We have holds on both sides. What typically happens is you work it out, and I think that’s where we ought to stay.”
PENTAGON BRIEFING FOR SENATORS ON ABORTION POLICY CHANGES NO MINDS
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party will grill Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, about the Biden administration’s China policy at an 8 a.m. hearing. Also testifying will be Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, and Thea Rozman Kendler, assistant secretary of commerce for export administration.
In prepared testimony released by the Pentagon ahead of this morning’s hearing, Ratner calls China “the most comprehensive and serious challenge to U.S. national security because of [its] increasingly coercive efforts to refashion the Indo-Pacific region and the international system to suit its authoritarian preferences.”
“We know that having a highly capable and combat-credible military is critical for preventing conflict,” Ratner says. “As a result, the Department is urgently modernizing U.S. military power with advanced capabilities and new operational concepts to address the challenges posed by the [People’s Liberation Army]. To that end, President Biden’s FY 2024 budget requests major investments in air power, including fifth generation aircraft; sea power, including undersea capabilities; resilient space capabilities; joint all domain command and control; and cybersecurity and cyberspace operations, among others.”
ALSO TODAY: The Senate Armed Services Committee takes up the nomination of Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh to be director of the National Security Agency, chief of the Central Security Service, and commander of the U.S. Cyber Command. The hearing starts at 9 a.m.
SENATE RESUMES NDAA DEBATE: The Senate will resume consideration of the National Defense Authorization Act around 12 noon, with a vote scheduled on an amendment proposed by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) that would ban the sales of petroleum products from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to certain countries.
Yesterday, the Senate approved, without much fanfare, a package of 51 noncontroversial amendments to the NDAA, including 21 from Republicans, 21 from Democrats, and nine that were bipartisan.
In a news conference yesterday, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said the Senate process stood in “glaring” contrast to the raucous debate in the other chamber.
“In the House, there’s all kinds of partisan divisions … there’s all kinds of MAGA amendments that just get in the way of getting anything done,” Schumer said. “Compare that to the Senate, where bipartisanship is working well and smoothly. The contrast is glaring and we hope, hope, hope that the House takes a lesson from the Senate and works in a productive way so we can pass these important bills.”
The House and Senate versions of the NDAA will have to be reconciled in conference committee and passed again before being sent to the president. “If both sides keep working together, I hope we can pass the defense authorization bill before we leave for the August state work period,” said Schumer. “We have every reason in the world to finish it quickly.”
THE CURIOUS CASE OF PVT. KING: The U.S. has been unable to get any response from Pyongyang to its inquiries about the fate of Army Pvt. Travis King, who bolted across the DMZ into North Korea for reasons that are not yet clear.
“Yesterday, the Pentagon reached out to counterparts in the Korean People’s Army. My understanding is that those communications have not yet been answered,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. “We retain a number of channels through which we can send messages to the DPRK. As you can imagine, in a situation like this, those discussions are quite sensitive, and I’m not prepared to go into all the details at this time.”
“I want to be very clear that the administration has and will continue to actively work to ensure his safety and return him home to his family,” Miller said.
King, 23, spent nearly two months in a South Korean prison following a conviction for assault and damaging a police vehicle, according to a transcript of the verdict obtained by the Associated Press. King’s family members told the outlet that he may have felt overwhelmed by his legal troubles, which would likely result in his discharge from the Army.
BRITAIN’S SPY CHIEF SEEKS RUSSIAN ASSETS: In only his second public speech, Richard Moore, chief of MI6, the U.K.’s Secret Intelligence Service, directly appealed for disenchanted Russians to help end Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
“There are many Russians today who are silently appalled by the sight of their armed forces pulverizing Ukrainian cities, expelling innocent families from their homes, and kidnapping thousands of children. They are watching in horror as their soldiers ravage a kindred country. They know in their hearts that Putin’s case for attacking a fellow Slavic nation is fraudulent, a miasma of lies and fantasy,” Moore said in remarks delivered in Prague, which in 1968, was invaded by Warsaw Pact troops led by the Soviet Union.
“Many Russians are wrestling with the same dilemmas and the same tugs of conscience as their predecessors did in 1968. I invite them to do what others have already done this past 18 months and join hands with us. Our door is always open,” Moore said. “We will handle their offers of help with the discretion and professionalism for which my service is famed. Their secrets will always be safe with us, and together we will work to bring the bloodshed to an end.
KYIV SAYS RUSSIA TARGETING GRAIN INFRASTRUCTURE AFTER PULLING OUT OF EXPORT DEAL
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Senate advances measure to tie president’s hands on NATO withdrawal
Washington Examiner: Senate votes down measure to rein in NATO war-making authority
Washington Examiner: Pentagon briefing for senators on abortion policy changes no minds
Washington Examiner: Tuberville stands firm after renewed effort from Democrats to overturn Pentagon protest
Washington Examiner: Schumer open to vote on Pentagon’s abortion policy
Washington Examiner: Biden administration announces $1.3 billion in long-term military aid to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Kyiv says Russia targeting grain infrastructure after pulling out of export deal
Washington Examiner: Putin to skip Johannesburg summit next month following ICC arrest warrant
Washington Examiner: Francis Fukuyama: End of Putin’s history could come ‘in the next few months’
Washington Examiner: Amid tensions with US and Taiwan, China’s new ambassador ducks questions about missing foreign minister
Washington Examiner: Kerry asks China to separate climate policy from other political tensions
Washington Examiner: Intel’s Pat Gelsinger admits support for China is all about money
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump talked a lot but said nothing during his town hall with Hannity
Politico: Allies’ ‘Main Effort’ for Ukraine Shifting from Donating Weapons to Fixing Them
Reuters: Fire At Military Base In Crimea Forces Evacuation Of More Than 2,000
New York Times: Kremlin Warns It Will Enforce Naval Blockade
USNI News: Russia Lays Mines In Black Sea To Block Ukrainian Ports, NSC Says
Defense News: Menendez Maintains Hold on Turkey F-16 Jets Despite Sweden NATO Deal
Defense One: China, Russia Creating a ‘Dangerous World’ with Friendlier Military Relationship, Pacific Commander Says
National Defense Magazine: Deterring China Requires Build Up of U.S. Nuclear Defenses, Admiral Says
Washington Times: U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Says Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Would Fail
19fortyfive.com: F-35s Just Landed In Iran and Russia’s ‘Military’ Backyard
AP: North Korea not responding to US attempts to discuss American soldier who ran across border
Reuters: US Scrambles to Determine Fate of Soldier Travis King, Who Fled to North Korea
AP: Protesters storm Swedish Embassy in Baghdad ahead of planned Quran burning in Stockholm
The War Zone: Tracking US Military Aircraft Online Could Become Much Harder
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Congress Clears Way to Restart Bonuses and PCS Moves. What will USAF Do Now?
Bloomberg: Microsoft Poised to Deliver Improved Combat Goggles, US Army Says
Space News: Space Force Changed Launch Procurement Plan Due to Concerns About Capacity
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Mobility Guardian Ditches ‘Easy Button’ to Put Airmen to the Test in the Pacific
Defense News: Dearth of Jamming Gear Follows Years of ‘Autopilot,’ Says Rep. Bacon
DefenseScoop: Northern Edge Exercise Becomes Test Field for Prototypes from DOD’s Rapid Defense Experimentation Reserve
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Investigates After B-52 ‘Crabbing’ at Airshow Appears to Knock Out Runway Lights
19fortyfive.com: The 5 Worst 9mm Handguns On the Planet
Washington Times: Opinion: Renewing NATO
Calendar
THURSDAY | JULY 20
8 a.m. 390 Cannon — House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “The Biden Administration’s PRC Strategy,” with testimony from Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs; and Thea Rozman Kendler, assistant secretary of commerce for export administration https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/
9 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh to be general and director of the National Security Agency, chief of the Central Security Service and commander of the U.S. Cyber Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9 a.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Security Forum Fireside Chat with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas; and Fareed Zakaria, host, Fareed Zakaria GPS, CNN https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms
9:35 a.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Security Forum Fireside Chat with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Courtney Kube, NBC Pentagon correspondent https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Department of Justice’s Implementation of the Biden Administration’s National Cybersecurity Strategy,” with Assistant Attorney General Kenneth Polite https://www.csis.org/events/department-justices
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Renewing America’s Compacts in the Pacific,” with Joseph Yun, State Department special presidential envoy for compact negotiations https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/renewing-americas-compacts
1:55 p.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Security Forum Fireside Chat with Colin Kahl, senior fellow, Stanford University, former undersecretary of defense for policy; Oleksandra Matviichuk, head, Centre for Civil Liberties, Ukraine; Philip Zelikow, professor of history, University of Virginia and distinguished visiting fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University; and Susan Glasser, staff writer, the New Yorker https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms
5 p.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Security Forum Fireside Chat with CIA Director William Burns; and Mary Louise Kelly, co-host, All Things Considered, NPR https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms
FRIDAY | JULY 21
9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Julian Gewirtz, deputy coordinator for China global affairs at the State Department; Rear Adm. Thomas Henderschedt, intelligence director, J2, at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Lt. Gen. Robert “Bob” Ashley Jr., CEO of Ashley Global Leadership and Security and former deputy chief of staff for intelligence, G2, at the Army; Aastha Verma, chief of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Cybersecurity Division; Rachel Grunspan, AI lead for the intelligence community in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Lakshmi Raman, CIA director of artificial intelligence innovation; and Jason Wang, technical director of the National Security Agency’s Computer and Analytic Sciences Research Group; and Jon Finer, deputy national security adviser https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event: “Acquisition for Decision Advantage: The Role of the CDAO in Scaling Software Solutions,” with Margie Palmieri, deputy chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, Department of Defense; and Cynthia Cook, director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group, and senior fellow, International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/acquisition-decision-advantage
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies call-in press briefing to preview the 2023 Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations. RSVP: Paige Montfort, [email protected]
TUESDAY | JULY 25
9 a.m. 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in person discussion: “Russia, Ukraine, and the Future of European Security,” with retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and senior adviser, Human Rights First; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs. RSVP: [email protected]
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event: “The Dangers of Premature Peace Plans in the Russo-Ukrainian War,” with Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Chatham House; Sam Greene, director, democratic resilience, Center for European Policy Analysis; Liana Fix, fellow for Europe, David Rockefeller Studies Program, Council on Foreign Relations; and moderator Max Bergmann, director, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and Stuart Center, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/dangers-premature-peace-plans-russo-ukrainian-war
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person and virtual discussion: “; “Lost and broken: Reflections on mental health, health care, and the US armed forces,” with Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), ranking member, House Armed Services Committee, and moderator Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/events/lost-and-broken-rep-adam-smith
WEDNESDAY | JULY 26
7 p.m. 390 Cannon — House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “Commanding Heights: Ensuring U.S. Leadership in the Critical and Emerging Technologies of the 21st Century,” with testimony from Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner, Lux Capital; William Evanina, former director, National Counterintelligence and Security Center and CEO of The Evanina Group; and Lindsay Gorman, senior fellow for emerging technologies, German Marshall Fund https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“It’s a hard grind and, you know, Ukrainian officials and military don’t shy away from that. And the Russians have had a chance to put in defense[s] which are very tough to overcome. But I do return to the point that Ukrainian commanders, in rather stark contrast to their Russian counterparts, want to preserve the lives of their troops and therefore move with due caution. They have still recovered more territory in a month than the Russians managed to achieve in a year.”
Richard Moore, chief of MI6, the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, in an interview of the Politico podcast Power Play
