Biden administration ready to go fast on Iran and slow on Afghanistan

Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday it’s not all clear the Taliban are holding up their side of the bargain, which requires the group to cut all ties with terrorists, reduce violence, and negotiate in good faith.

The Taliban must “participate in a real way, not a fake way, in negotiations with the Afghan government,” said Sullivan at a U.S. Institute of Peace event. “What we’re doing right now is taking a hard look at the extent to which the Taliban are, in fact, complying with those three conditions, and in that context, we will make decisions about our force posture and our diplomatic strategy going forward.”

2,500 TROOPS NOT ENOUGH: The Pentagon said last week that the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Scott Miller, had agreed that the current troop cap of 2,500 American forces was “a sufficient number to accomplish the mission,” so long as the United States is limited to counterterrorism.

But in a podcast in November, former Army Vice Chief of Staff retired Gen. Jack Keane revealed that Miller had told him that 4,500 was the lowest he can go and still maintain essential missions. That was something another former Afghanistan commander, retired Gen. David Petraeus, zeroed in on during a Friday Aspen Security Forum event with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

“I have a nagging fear as an old soldier that the drawdown of U.S. forces to below half the number that general Miller reportedly previously assessed was the minimum needed, could prove inadequate in assisting, enabling the Afghan national security forces when the fighting season resumes after winter,” said Petraeus, who outlined what he admitted was a worse case scenario, “kind of civil war that we saw in the 1990s, after the collapse of the Afghan government supported by the Soviets after their own departure.”

Ghani said his country needs not only U.S. troops but also troops from other NATO countries, which are not effective without the support of the U.S. “NATO is very much interested in continuing, but they need U.S.,” Ghani said, “If Taliban realize that they can prevail through violence, they will not let go.”

READY TO MOVE ON IRAN: At that Friday event, Sullivan seemed to suggest the Biden administration is anxious to begin the process of rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers.

“Our view is that if we can get back to diplomacy, and put Iran’s nuclear program in a box, that will create a platform upon which to build a global effort, including partners and allies in the region and in Europe and elsewhere, to take on the other significant threats Iran poses, including on the ballistic missile issue,” Sullivan said, arguing Iran’s nuclear capabilities and malign activities increased during the Trump years.

“But from our perspective, a critical early priority has to be to deal with what is an escalating nuclear crisis as they move closer and closer to having enough fissile material for a weapon, and we would like to make sure that we reestablish some of the parameters and constraints around the program that have fallen away over the course of the past few years.”

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Today marks the first week of what Pentagon spokesman John Kirby has promised will be regular briefings most Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 2:30 p.m., subject to change depending on events. All briefings are livestreamed at: https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/

ALSO TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with President Biden at the White House, and at 5 p.m., the president and Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with 10 Republican senators who are pushing a smaller $600 billion compromise COVID relief plan.

REALLY BAD OPTICS: No sooner has word leaked out that among the 6,000 people at the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, who will be offered COVID-19 vaccinations would be some of 40 terrorism suspects held at the prison camp there, than it became immediately obvious the idea would be a PR nightmare.

The plan was revealed by a prosecutor in the case against five prisoners accused of conspiring in the Sept. 11 attacks and reported by the New York Times Friday. The prosecutor said a Pentagon official signed off on the plan Thursday, and vaccinations could begin as soon as today. The 40 include Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, accused mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks.

“President Biden told us he would have a plan to defeat the virus on day 1. He just never told us that it would be to give the vaccine to terrorists before most Americans,” tweeted Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Clean-up fell to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, who tweeted, “No Guantanamo detainees have been vaccinated. We’re pausing the plan to move forward, as we review force protection protocols. We remain committed to our obligations to keep our troops safe.”

In response, McCarthy tweeted, “Good.”

The 1,500 troops assigned to the detention facility will be getting vaccinated on a voluntary basis.

ENEMIES FOREIGN OR DOMESTIC, ALL OF A STRIPE: Former Defense Secretary and CIA Director Leon Panetta, who served in the administration of President Barack Obama, is arguing that U.S. law enforcement should take a page from the Pentagon’s counterinsurgency manual in dealing with violent domestic extremists.

“In the war against al Qaeda, we came to understand that Bin Laden motivated his followers to conduct violent attacks on US targets to destroy those who symbolized American power. He motivated them with a fundamental lie — that all those nonbelievers who did not share that goal were responsible for the failures in their lives and deserved to die. Many of those followers were poor, not well educated, frustrated by their lot in life and wanted to find others to blame. Their religious extremism made them blind to reality and to the consequences of their actions,” Panetta writes in an op-ed on CNN.com.

“Some of the same frustrations that motivated foreign terrorists are also present in those who attacked the US Capitol. They too are moved by lies promoted by their leader — Donald Trump,” Panetta writes. “Terrorists will not accept the truth of why they are wrong, but they will accept the reality of overwhelming force.”

ZELENSKY: ‘DIFFICULT TO SEE THE US AS SYMBOL OF DEMOCRACY’: In an interview that aired last night on Axios on HBO, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was “shocked” watching images of riots storming the U.S. Capitol last month in an attempt to stop certification of the results of the presidential election.

“We are used to believing that the United States has the ideal democratic institutions, where power is transferred calmly … In Ukraine, we lived through two revolutions … we understood such things can happen in the world,” Zelensky told Axios’s Jonathan Swan. “After something like this, I believe it would be very difficult for the world to see the United States as a symbol of democracy.”

“I believe this was a strong blow to democracy of the United States,” he said, speaking through an interpreter in an interview at his presidential office, “But that it could happen in the United States? No one expected that … I was very worried … I did not want you to have a coup.”

Zelensky also told Swan he did not feel pressured at all in his infamous 2019 call with President Donald Trump, in which Trump asked for Ukraine to investigate Hunter Biden, which ultimately lead to Trump’s first impeachment.

What most disturbed him, Zeleenky said, was that the contents of the private call were made public, and not by him, he pointed out.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden’s national security adviser is skeptical of US troop exit from Afghanistan

Washington Examiner: China’s ‘carrier killer’ and military won’t ‘win the next war,’ US admiral says

Washington Examiner: Pentagon pauses plan to offer Guantanamo Bay detainees coronavirus vaccines

Washington Examiner: Army investigating chaplain who called transgender soldiers ‘unqualified to serve’ on social media

Washington Examiner: ‘Grateful’: Defense secretary visits National Guard troops at Capitol amid calls to draw down and COVID infections

Washington Examiner: Soldiers at Fort Bliss injured, two critically, after ingesting antifreeze chemical

Washington Post: As he tackles extremism, Lloyd Austin draws on military’s experience dealing with 1995 racially motivated murders

CNN: Putin Signs Law Extending Nuclear Arms Treaty Between U.S. And Russia

South China Morning Post: China May Seek To Close Nuclear Gap After U.S. And Russia Agree To Extend New START Treaty

USNI News: Biden Administration Wants To Expand Pacific ‘Quad’ Relationship, National Security Advisor Sullivan Says

Reuters: Taiwan Says Chinese Fighters, U.S. Aircraft Both Entered Defence Zone

Task & Purpose: Russian Fighter Jet Buzzes USS Donald Cook In The Black Sea

AP: Afghan negotiating team warns Taliban it must resume talks

Reuters: Iran Hosts Afghan Taliban Leader As Peace Talks Stalled

Reuters: Kushner, Berkowitz nominated for Nobel peace prize for Israel deals

C4ISRNET: Pentagon Could Reassess Future Of JEDI Cloud, Depending On Court Action

USNI News: Iran’s Best Submarines Have Been Out Of The Water For A Month

Task & Purpose: Hundreds Of Sailors From The USS Chafee Moved Off The Ship Due To A Serious COVID-19 Outbreak

Air Force Magazine: USAFA Cracking Down on Students for Widespread Cheating Last Spring

Stars and Stripes: Air Force Deploys Four B-52 Bombers To Guam For ‘Strategic Deterrence’ Mission

Air Force Magazine: Space Force to Adopt ‘Specialist,’ Other New Ranks Feb. 1

Military.com: These Marines Devoted Their Lives To The Corps. Then They Were Singled Out For Having Children

AP: Biden Visits Wounded Troops At Walter Reed, Where Son Died

Washington Examiner: Opinion: The US should be prepared to kill Daniel Pearl’s killer

CNN: Opinion: Leon Panetta: The risks of ignoring domestic terrorists are huge

Real Clear Defense: Opinion: Defending Forward to Confront China’s Military Aims

Washington Post: Biden national security adviser suggests fast timeline to rejoin Iran deal

Calendar

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 1

12 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversation with Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, commander, Air Mobility Command. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/

2:30 p.m. Pentagon Briefing Room — John Kirby, assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs briefs reporters, on the record, on camera. Livestreamed at https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 2

9 a.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion on challenges the Air Force anticipates in the coming year, with Air Force Lt. Gen. Mary O’Brien, deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and cyber effects operations. https://www.insaonline.org/event

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing for Kathleen Hicks to be deputy defense secretary. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

9:45 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with Thomas Harker, acting assistant navy secretary for research, development and acquisition, delivering remarks on “Building Tomorrow’s Navy and Marine Corps;” and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger delivers remarks on “Distributed Maritime Operations and Marine Expeditionary Operations.” https://www.ndia.org/events/2021/2/2/2021-virtual-expeditionary-warfare-conference

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “U.S. Navy: Setting the Theater in the Arctic,” with Navy Adm. Robert Burke, commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe, U.S. Naval Forces Africa, and Allied Joint Forces Command Naples https://www.csis.org/events/online-event

11:50 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association Virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. Full agenda at: https://www.ndia.org/-/media/sites/ndia/meetings-and-events

12 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar with French President Emmanuel Macron on Europe and transatlantic relations. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

2 p.m. — Brookings Institution webcast: “International Security Challenges and Solutions for the Road Ahead,” with Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Project on International Order and Strategy; Lindsey Ford, fellow in the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies; David Dollar, senior fellow in the Brookings China Center; Vanda Felbab-Brown, director of the Brookings Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors; and Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Brookings Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology. https://www.brookings.edu/events

3 p.m. — Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee markup to consider committee rules and budget for the 117th Congress; and to vote on the nomination of Denis McDonough to be Veterans Affairs secretary. http://veterans.senate.gov

7 p.m. — Air Force Association webinar: “Air and Space Warfighters in Action,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Scott Pleus, deputy commander of U.S. Forces Korea; and Air Force Sgt. Philip Hudson, command chief master sergeant of Seventh Air Force. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 3

9:45 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with Vice Adm. William Galinis, commander of Naval Sea Systems Command, delivering remarks on “Designing the Next Generation Surface and Amphibious Combatant: Capabilities Challenges and Opportunities.” https://www.ndia.org/events

10 a.m. — Association of Old Crows virtual discussion with Air Chief Marshal Stuart Peach, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, part of the Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations Leadership series. https://www.crows.org/general/custom

11 a.m. Rayburn 2118/WebEx — House Armed Services Committee meets to organize for the 117th Congress. http://www.armedservices.house.gov

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army Commander “Noon Report” webinar, with Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command. Register at: https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/rg-AUSA-Noon-Report

1 p.m. — Space Foundation Space Symposium 365 virtual event with Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command. https://spacesymposium365.org/agenda

2:30 p.m. Pentagon Briefing Room — John Kirby, assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs briefs reporters, on the record, on camera. Livestreamed at https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events

2:30 p.m. — United States Institute of Peace webinar on the release of the final report of the Afghanistan Study Group, with former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., co-chair of the Afghanistan Study Group; former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, co-chair of the Afghanistan Study Group; Nancy Lindborg, co-chair of the Afghanistan Study Group; and former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, chair of the USIP Board of Directors. https://www.usip.org/events/afghanistan-study-group

TBA — The Navy releases nearly 60 recommendations from the final report of Task Force One Navy, which for six months has been examining systemic racism and the needs of underserved communities in the ranks, with an eye toward dismantling barriers and equalizing professional development opportunities.

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 4

9 a.m. — Georgetown University webinar, “The North Korea Issue in U.S.-China Relations: New Directions Under the Biden Administration,” with Avery Goldstein, professor of global politics at the University of Pennsylvania: Jean Lee, director of the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy; former National Security Council Korea Director Sydney Seiler; and Victor Cha, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.georgetown.edu/event

10 a.m. — House Homeland Security Committee hearing on “Examining the Domestic Terrorism Threat in the Wake of the Attack on the U.S. Capitol.” http://homeland.house.gov

10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center virtual China Fellowship Conference, with panel discussions on “China’s Foreign Policy Along a Contested Periphery,” “The Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese Influence in Southeast Asia,” and “Is a New Cold War Inevitable: Chinese Intentions and the Role of Misperception.” https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event

12 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Exploring Innovative Measures to Map and Mitigate Illicit Weapon Transfers,” with Tim Michetti, investigative researcher on illicit weapon transfers; Rachel Stohl, vice president for conventional defense at the Stimson Center; Jay Bahadur, former coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia; and David Mortlock, nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 5

9 a.m. — Wilson Center Middle East Program conversation with Amb. James Jeffrey, chair of the Middle East Program, former ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS, to discuss the Biden Administration’s Middle East policy. https://engage.wilsoncenter.org/a/media-briefing

9:30 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webinar: “Nuclear Policy and Posture in the Biden Administration,” with former Defense Undersecretary Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner of WestExec Advisers; George Perkovich, vice president for studies at CEIP; and Pranay Vaddi, fellow in the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program. https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/02/05/nuclear-policy

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “The Afghan Peace Process: Progress or Peril?” with Afghanistan Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates Javid Ahmad; Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani, director for South and Central Asia at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events

12 p.m. — Georgetown University virtual book discussion on “The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy versus Autocracy from the Ancient World to the U.S. and China,” with author Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security; former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, senior fellow at Harvard University’s Future of Diplomacy Project; and Abraham Newman, director of the Georgetown Mortara Center for International Studies. https://www.georgetown.edu/event/book-talk

2:30 p.m. Pentagon Briefing Room — John Kirby, assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs briefs reporters, on the record, on camera. Livestreamed at https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 8

9:15 a.m. — The Middle East Institute MEI-CENTCOM Annual Conference, with keynote remarks by Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, moderated by Amb. Gerald Feierstein, MEI senior vice president. https://www.mei.edu/events/keynote-address